HorsesAss.Org

Hey, you know what would be great? If there wasn’t so damn much smoke everywhere. And maybe if we we don’t break records in October. Give us a good, hard rainy day. Just a day to get this shit done with. I know, in February, I’ll be done with it, but the fires need putting out. No smoking, Seattle. I don’t want to wear a mask just to go on a walk.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible. The bivalent booster is great, and you protect yourself and your community by getting it.

Ali Velshi: The viral political ad women have been waiting for

Seth Meyers: Vice President Harris talks Biden’s marijuana pardons, 2022 midterms and abortion rights
Seth Meyers: Vice President Kamala Harris discusses the next steps for pardoning marijuana possession

Desi Lydic investigates paper shortages affecting upcoming elections

Трамп and His Band of Lying Seditionists:

• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Alex Jones Whines About Hell (He’d best get used to it) ♬
• Tommy Campbell: Mike Lindell loses appeal and tells churches to break the law
• Stephen: Alex Jones is out a billion & Walker changes the subject
• Trevor: Трамп subpoenaed by January 6 Panel & Alex Jones ordered to pay $1 billion
• Robert Reich: Election deniers could pick the next President without you
• Bill Maher: New Rule—Republican idiocracy
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s Capitol riot demands denied, Alex Jones’ $965 million hissy fit & MORE KIDS for Herschel?
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Blaming it on the Liberals ♬
• The Late Show: Herschel Walker’s campaign clarifies his bull story
• Lauren Mayer: ♫ Rights Aren’t Pie ♬:

• J-L Cauvin: Трамп’s EPIC REACTION to the January 6th subpoena
• Seth Meyers: Dramatic Jan. 6 hearing issues Трамп subpoena, hints at criminal referrals
• The Daily Show: These “conservatives” sound like the KKK
• Stephen: Shocking twist…the Jan 6 Committee votes to subpoena the Dotard
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп primes the riot pump, Tucker puckers up to Kanye & Herschel’s story gets worse
• Seth Meyers: VP Harris on Texas Gov. Abbott bussing migrants across the country for “political theater”
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reacts to Ariel Elias stealing a beer
• Stephen: Why is Rudy Giuliani partying in Times Square without Stephen Colbert?
• Lawrence O’Donnell: The Dotard has confessed
• Seth Meyers: Трамп accidentally confesses in stolen docs case
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ A Second Amendment Hymn ♬
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп vs late night hosts, Marjorie Taylor Greene vs immigrants & Herschel Walker vs The Libs!
• Lawrence O’DonnellDOJ appears to crush every Трамп argument in new filing
• Stephen: Stephanopoulos on The Dotard
• Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s Best Christian: The Herschel Walker exception:

• The Late Show: Kanye’s social media presence is not getting stronger
• Seth Meyers: DOJ says Трамп still has more stolen docs, tells SCOTUS to stay out of case
• Jimmy Kimmel: Crazy series finale of Jan 6th hearings and Трамп’s little subpoena
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп said it was okay to have stolen documents ♬
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reads & DESTROYS Maggie Haberman’s book
• Robert Reich: What happened at the last January 6th hearing?
• Desi Lydic FAUXsplains Herschel Walker
• The Daily Show: A day in the life of Трамп’s Special Master, Raymond Dearie
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп—Loser, Loner and Liar ♬
• Stephen: Speaker Pelosi displayed superhuman composure during Jan 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol

John Oliver: Crime reporting

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

Seth Meyers: FAUX News’ Halloween fearmongering—Hot Tamales, Sugar Daddies

SNL Weekend Update: Political news of the week

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Hey, people with marijuana convictions in King County: The county is still making efforts to clear those convictions from before it was legal. And their budget includes outreach to some of the toughest people to find. It’s good, and it is still producing results a decade on.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible. I got boosted and a flu shot at the same time, and my only symptom is that my arm is a bit sore.

SPD behaved so poorly during CHOP that sometimes you forget whole ass portions of it. Reading about the report by the Inspector General, I completely forgot about SPD making up armed checkpoints out of whole cloth. Wild that they want more offers and 0 accountability after that mess.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible. Vaccination rates are low for the bivalent booster, so make an appointment soon.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight. Please join us for a freewheeling discussion of politics and life over a beverage.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Who else is sick of the smoke from the Bolt Creek Fire? It has been more than a month of this disgusting sky. We could all use some rain.

One thing I am surprised by is that so few people are wearing N95 masks in it. Surely we all swimming in them after COVID-19. And they’re free at most drug stores. Just ask for one.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now and get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

Stephen: “How about three women?”—Speaker Pelosi looks forward to electing more Female leaders

LegalEagle: The most ridiculous lawsuits ever

John Oliver: Museums and antiquities

WaPo: Five years after #MeToo, here’s why it’s still hard to come forward

Stephen: Biden’s October surprise—Marijuana pardons

Robert Reich: The secret to building grassroots power

Amber Ruffin: Are police in schools doing more harm than good?

Трамп and His Felonious Fans:

• Katie Phang: Oath Keepers leader on trial says group “should have brought rifles” on Jan. 6
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Herschel May Not Be Your Daddy (or Senator) ♬
• Jimmy Kimmel: Herschel Walker abortion lies add up, Трамп files accidentally released & Gay Velma drives GOP mad
• Trevor: Conservatives launch new dating app “The Right Stuff”
• Stephen: Herschel Walker’s girlfriend kept receipts
• Amber Ruffin: Ron DeSantis getting DRAGGED by Jiggly Caliente
• Katie Phang: MAGA extremism—Violent “civil war” rhetoric spikes online ahead of midterms
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп PRAISES Dr. Oz’ dog experiments
• Alex Wagner: “He was pro-choice, obviously,” new report quotes woman who says Walker paid for abortion
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Automotive Epiphany ♬
• The Late Show: Be a man and drive the new Pontiac Schvantz:

• Alex Wagner: Blizzard of new revelations sends Walker camp scrambling
• Tommy Campbell: Herschel Walker tackled by ex’s receipts and son’s rant
• The Late Show: ♫ Herschel Walker, “It Wasn’t Me” ♬
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп—A Question of Storage ♬
• Alex Wagner: Трамп lawyers deploy slow-down tactics but Трамп’s case doesn’t improve
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Prof. Laurence Tribe—Трамп’s Special Master appeal is a “sideshow”
• Chris Hayes: How FAUX News became a PR channel for Republican Senate candidates
• The Late Show: Hallmark introduces The Herschel Walker Collection
• Seth Meyers: Трамп takes classified docs case to SCOTUS and Rudy’s gross toilet habits
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ I’m Tired of Singing (about Трамп’s Faults) ♬
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s COVID Superman fantasy and Ted Cruz is taking back America on a bus
• Lauren Mayer: Let’s Boot Out Herschel Walker:

• Stephen: Tyler Templeton reports LIVE from Mar-a-Lago for “Tooning Out The News”
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ The Republican Limbo Song ♬
• SNL Weekend Update: Mitch McConnell and Herschel Walker on 2022 midterms
• J-L Cauvin: Mitch McConnell reacts to Трамп saying he has a death wish
• jimmy Kimmel: Supreme Court REJECTS MyPillow Mike, Трамп weathers tell all storm & Herschel’s concussion defense
• Seth Meyers: GOP stumbles toward midterms as Трамп claims all elections are rigged
• Alex Wagner: What Трамп’s outreach to the Supreme Court is really all about
• Trevor: Who is Herschel Walker?
• Trevor: Maggie Haberman—The Ultimate Guide to The Dotard Трамп
• Stephen: “At this point we can’t ignore him”—Maggie Haberman on covering
• Stephen: “He’s backed himself into a corner”—Why Maggie Haberman thinks Трамп will run in 2024
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп, Just Your Average Sociopath ♬:

• Alex Wagner with Maggie Habberman: Трамп entitlement developed as rich kid, far from his new blue collar base
• Jon Stewart and friends: Herschel Walker’s abortion controversy
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Where else did Трамп leave his beloved classified documents?
• Tommy Campbell: Mike Lindell’s storm report fails and Marjorie’s divorce
• Seth Meyers: GOP reels as scandal-ridden MAGA candidates like Walker and Oz implode
• Chris Hayes: DeSantis auditions for role of green M&M in white boots
• Trevor: FAUX News’s bizarre defense of Herschel Walker
• Alex Wagner: Walker confirms accuser’s identity, but denies knowledge of her abortion
• Jimmy Kimmel: Wild new Трамп tell-all and Herschel Walker’s abortion scandal
• Stephen: GOP pretends Трамп isn’t racist
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ If You Hate America, You’ll LOVE Трамп! ♬

Ari Melber: See Трамп-Nixon drug war shredded in epic Peter Tosh breakdown

Liberal Redneck: OPEC, foreign oil, gas prices, etc.

WaPo: What the Michigan midterms means for the future of abortion

Stephen: “No one fucks with a Biden” and Buttigieg claps back at MTG

The Daily Show: The Kamala Harris Veep reboot

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

What the fuck is happening with the King County jail? Jesus, man. Cloudy water? Cloudy water. For a week. It’s so terrible. They are people in our custody, and we have a moral responsibility to do fucking better.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And sign up to get vaccinated or for the bivalent booster right now.

Man. Seattle sports teams. The Mariners breaking the playoff drought. And OL Reign coming in first in the NWSL.

We may ir may not get a Mariners home game in the playoffs. But OL Reign are playing at Lumen Field. And if you haven’t been to one of there games, let me recommend a trip. The crowd is a lot of fun during the regular season, and I imagine it will be even more during the playoffs. The team took a while to get started but have been playing great for a while now.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
97.2% probability	2.8% probability
Mean of 51 seats	Mean of 49 seats

I saw a headline today saying that Republicans had made some gains in the Senate contest. So I decided to update the polls and see what tale they had to tell.

The previous analysis from 12 days ago gave the Democrats a 98.1% probability of taking the Senate with a mean of 51 seats.

With today’s polls, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 74100 times, there were 23093 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 2807 times. Democrats have a 97.2% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 2.8% probability of controlling the Senate. So, I guess there was a tiny movement toward Republican control.

Some states, like Colorado, Illinois, and New Hampshire, have moved a bit more into the Democrat column. But Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have gone the other way. It is almost a wash.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 97.2%, Republicans control the Senate 2.8%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 51.2 ( 1.1)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 48.8 ( 1.1)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 51 (49, 53)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 49 (47, 51)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 34
• Independent seats w/no election: two
• Republican seats w/no election: 29
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 13
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 20
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: one

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	47
Strong Democrat	3	50
Leans Democrat	0	0	50
Weak Democrat	0	0	0	50
Weak Republican	0	0	0	50
Leans Republican	5	5	50
Strong Republican	10	45
Safe Republican	35

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	Percent	Percent	Democrat	Republican
State	@	polls	size	Democrat	Republican	% wins	% wins
AL		0	0			(0)	(100)
AK		0	0			(0)	(100)
AZ		9	6018	54.3	45.7	100.0	0.0
AR		1	618	41.3	58.7	0.1	99.9
CA		0	0			(100)	(0)
CO		3	2667	55.0	45.0	100.0	0.0
CT		2	2435	58.4	41.6	100.0	0.0
FL		6	3396	47.5	52.5	2.0	98.0
GA		8	7128	51.2	48.8	92.9	7.1
HI		0	0			(100)	(0)
ID		0	0			(0)	(100)
IL		1	805	61.7	38.3	100.0	0.0
IN		1	456	48.7	51.3	35.1	64.9
IA		1&	514	45.3	54.7	6.9	93.1
KS		1	784	42.2	57.8	0.1	99.9
KY		1&	588	41.5	58.5	0.3	99.7
LA		0	0			(0)	(100)
MD		1	666	62.9	37.1	100.0	0.0
MO		2	1560	43.3	56.7	0.0	100.0
NV		5	3721	48.8	51.2	15.6	84.4
NH		7	5381	54.1	45.9	100.0	0.0
NY		2	1454	62.6	37.4	100.0	0.0
NC		5	3603	49.2	50.8	24.3	75.7
ND		0	0			(0)	(100)
OH		5	3698	49.3	50.7	26.9	73.1
OK		2	814	43.6	56.4	0.4	99.6
OK		1	430	39.5	60.5	0.1	99.9
OR		2	1507	61.4	38.6	100.0	0.0
PA		9	6780	52.6	47.4	99.9	0.1
SC		1&	546	40.7	59.3	0.0	100.0
SD		0	0			(0)	(100)
UT		3	1198	46.6	53.4	4.7	95.3
VT		1	996	53.5	46.5	94.5	5.5
WA		5	3361	54.4	45.6	100.0	0.0
WI		8	5709	49.2	50.8	18.4	81.6

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

This is your weekly reminder that the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally is the place to go to discuss politics over the beverage of your choice. And tonight is the night.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Good morning. Let’s start taking steps to get to a place where we can breach the dams on the Snake River. Excellent for salmon. We’ll have to figure out ways to replace the energy the dams produce. But it’s great to push for.

Rep. Dan Newhouse is opposed to any dam removal because he’s fighting a war on fishing. He wants the Snake River as dead as possible. He hates the recreation and transportation that could be achieved.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

Jon Stewart and Friends: Brett Favre and the Mississippi Welfare Scandal

Katie Phang: Upcoming term full of more blockbuster cases

Amber Ruffin: Hillary and Chelsea Clinton

Vice News: Indigenous tribes push back against evangelical missionaries

Now This: How Dolores Huerta continues to inspire immigration activsts

Lewis Black: 100 fucks given

Tales of The Dotard Трамп and Other MAGA Thieves, Liars, and Grifters:

• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ There Doesn’t Have to Be a Process, There CAN Be a Process ♬
• Katie Phang: Jan. 6 bombshell? “Significant information” obtained by Committee amid Ginni Thomas interview
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard reacts to the divorce of Marjorie Taylor Greene
• Ari Melber: Трамп coup nightmare—Aides testify as DOJ moves up the line in criminal probe
• Seth Meyers: Jan. 6 Committee obtains damning Roger Stone video, weighs Трамп subpoena
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Beware of (Dotard Трамп’s) False Profits ♬
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп nearly fired Ivanka & Jared via tweet
• Mehdi Hasan: Where Roger Stone and Ginni Thomas stand in 1/6 probe
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп’s favorite part of being President? The rich people! ♬
• Stephen: Трамп denies watching TV during Jan 6 insurrection
• Chris Hayes: A tale of two MAGA extremist candidates for governor
• Parody Project: ♫ SPECIAL MASTER ♬:

• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп—Better ignored, best forgotten ♬
• Robert Reich: This one thing made Alex Jones stop lying
• Stephen: Mastriano getting desperate in PA
• Vice News: Cowboy for Трамп removed from office for Jan. 6
• Chris Hayes: Трамп Judges reminds us the rule of law is a “human institution”
• Tommy Campbell: Mike Lindell considered attacking the FBI and it’s nuts
• Lauren Mayer: ♫ (Not) Too Young” (the Трамп kids legal defense song) ♬
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп’s gullible sheep ♬
• Mark Fiore: The “Commitment to America”
• Jimmy Kimmel: Shirtless Трампers fight hurricane and Marjorie Taylor Greene is getting divorced
• Seth Meyers: Jan. 6 panel grills Ginni Thomas about shocking coup texts with Трамп team
• Rachel Maddow: Endgame of GOP undermining elections is to evade accountability to voters
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Triggering the Трампers (part one) ♬
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Triggering the Трампers (part two) ♬
• Katie Phang: Judge’s endgame seems to be to help Трамп says former FBI agent
• Seth Meyers: Трамп’s bizarre nuke rant
• LegalEagle: Трамп’s beatdown in the 11th Circuit (Cannon rebuked):

• Chris Hayes: Why the Oath Keepers trial defense could spell trouble for Трамп
• Mehdi Hasan: The GOP’s backwards obsession with “law and order”
• Joy Reid: Stone may join club of pardoned Трамп henchmen who commit more crimes says expert
• Tommy Campbell: Marjorie Taylor Greene’s helicopter hog contest is hilariously bad
• Stephen: Haberman’s book details racist, sexist behavior by Трамп
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Ginni Thomas finally meets with Jan. 6 Committee
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ What to do with Трамп and Трампers? ♬
• Ali Velshi: Wild new book details how Proud Boys take orders from Трамп’s rhetoric

Mehdi Hasan: DACA’s survival again rests in the courts

Amber Ruffin: The Little Mermaid is Black. GET OVER IT!

Vox: Who’s really using up the water in the American West?

Liberal Redneck: Biden’s gaffes

The New York Times: Family caught in immigration battle reaches NYC—“The bus left us here”

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Forgot I was working early this morning, so short and sweet. Don’t delete your text messages if you’re a government official.

I am still wrapping my head around Mayor Harrell’s budget. It seems certain that the high water mark of the defund movement in Seattle will be in the past as even taking parking enforcement out of the hands of the police is at least proposed to go away.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.