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Sanctuary

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 6/27/12, 7:52 am

I’m still reading through the Arizona immigration Supreme Court decision, but I expect that come Thursday, all of the Supreme Court discussion discussion will be about health care. So I’d like to get to the logical conclusion of Scalia’s dissent before that happens. It seems to me that if this is true, then it cuts both ways.

In his point-by-point defense of the Arizona legislation, the avowed law-and-order conservative surmised that the Obama administration “desperately wants to avoid upsetting foreign powers.” He accused federal officials of “willful blindness or deliberate inattention” to the presence of illegal immigrants in Arizona.

“[T]o say, as the Court does, that Arizona contradicts federal law by enforcing applications of the Immigration Act that the President declines to enforce boggles the mind,” Scalia wrote. “If securing its territory in this fashion is not within the power of Arizona, we should cease referring to it as a sovereign State.”

If a state has the right to, essentially do anything to keep anyone out, doesn’t another state have the right to keep anyone in? Or to make anyone a citizen? It seems to me if states can’t decide who is a citizen of the United States we can’t call them sovereign states. I guess that’s why we don’t.

So it seems to me if Scalia’s positions ever become the majority on the court, Washington should become a sanctuary state. We should let anyone become a citizen as long as they aren’t here to do us harm.

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Poll Analysis: Romney creeps up a bit

by Darryl — Tuesday, 6/26/12, 6:49 pm


Obama Romney
99.3% probability of winning 0.7% probability of winning
Mean of 323 electoral votes Mean of 215 electoral votes

Nine new state head-to-head polls have been released in the contest between Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama since my previous analysis:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO WeAskAmerica 25-Jun 25-Jun 1083 3.0 46.6 43.0 O+3.6
MI Denno Research 14-Jun 15-Jun 600 4.0 40 40 tie
NH ARG 21-Jun 24-Jun 417 — 49 46 O+3
NC Rasmussen 25-Jun 25-Jun 500 4.5 44 47 R+3
OH PPP 21-Jun 24-Jun 673 3.8 47 44 O+3
OR PPP 21-Jun 24-Jun 686 3.7 50 42 O+8
UT Dan Jones 15-Jun 21-Jun 1222 2.8 26 68 R+42
VA WeAskAmerica 25-Jun 25-Jun 1106 3.0 43.3 48.0 R+4.7
VA ODU 16-May 15-Jun 776 3.5 49 42 O+7

The unsurprising polls include one from Oregon that gives Obama a +8% lead over Romney, and the first poll of the year in Utah that gives Romney a +42% advantage over Obama.

Colorado puts Obama up by +3.6% over Romney. The four current polls weigh solidly in Obama’s favor, as does the overall polling picture:
ObamaRomney26May12-26Jun12Colorado

The fourth Michigan poll released in the past week has the race tied at 40% each. Combined with two other recent polls, Obama has the slightest lead in the state overall, giving him an expected 68% probability of taking the state (if the election was held now).

The second New Hampshire poll in a week has Obama up by a tight +3% over Romney. (Note that I used the Likely Voter results instead of the Registered Voter results given for this poll.) The pair of polls combined gives Obama an 81% chance of taking the state at this point.

Romney takes the most recent North Carolina poll with a weak +3% lead over Obama. That makes five leads in a row for Mitt, all since mid-May:
ObamaRomney26May12-26Jun12North Carolina

Ohio gives Obama a small +3% lead, breaking Romney’s two poll lead streak. The three current polls in that race give Romney a thin 55% probability of taking the state at this point:
ObamaRomney26May12-26Jun12Ohio

Two new Virginia polls split. One goes to Obama by +7% and the other goes to Romney by +4.7%. The weight of the evidence from the five recent polls is that Obama would take the state now with a 83% probability.

ObamaRomney26May12-26Jun12Virginia

I want to again express my gratitude to Sam Minter, who does his own poll aggregation exercise. Sam systematically compared our poll databases, resolved the discrepancies, and sent corrections to me over the past month. Also, I thank the HA commenter who noticed an error in the Nebraska past elections numbers, and persisted in getting through to me when I missed his comment.

Okay…so now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,310 times and Romney wins 690 times (including the 63 ties). Obama takes (on average) 323 to Romney’s 215 electoral votes. For an election held now, Obama would have a 99.3% probability of winning and Romney, a 0.7% probability of winning.

Since the previous analysis Romney has gained an expected +3 electoral votes and has more than doubled his probability of winning (now), but that works out to less than a 1% probability overall of winning.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

[Read more…]

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 6/26/12, 3:25 pm

DLBottle

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. Tonight there are elections in Colorado, New York, Oklahoma and Utah, but we’ll likely ignore them to talk about other issues: the Governor and AG races in Washington, as well as recent and forthcoming Supreme Court decisions.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight there are also meetings of the Tri-Cities and Bellingham chapters. The Burien chapter meets on Wednesday, and the Woodinville chapter meets on Thursday. Then on Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.

With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including eleven in Washington state and four more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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Open Thread 6/26

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 6/26/12, 7:59 am

– This chart of Congressional wealth is one of those charts that shocks you with things you could have guessed.

– The Seattle Great Wheel looks like it will be pretty neat.

– This idea for filibuster reform is a bit overly complex. But in general it’s solid.

– WTF, SPD?

– Clearly this is not Romney’s party – yet, anyway. Other Republicans’ willingness to buck and rebuke him signals not bracing political independence – party leaders haven’t had the guts to stand up to the birthers in their ranks – but insecurity about their November prospects. A lot of Republicans seem to have their eye on November – of 2016.

– Spoke and Food

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Going After The Right Person

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 6/25/12, 5:12 pm

I like Darcy Burner, but unlike a lot of bloggers, I’m willing to wait and see who gets through the primary. I don’t live in the district so I don’t have to choose. And a lot of the candidates have done good things. Still, I’m encouraged by things like this in my email box.

I’ve heard Republicans lie. I’ve heard Fox News manipulate the truth. I’ve heard plenty of outrageous things. John Koster proved that through either ignorance or willful rejection of reality, Republicans can still shock me.

In an interview that will air on Sunday on King5, a question was asked about Congress addressing marriage equality. I answered that not only should we repeal DOMA, but we should go further and provide all married couples with all of the Federal benefits of marriage.

I was stunned by what followed.

John Koster jumped right in with an outrageous statement.

“…there is no Federal Defense of Marriage Act…”

Yes, of course on one level, it’s another fundraising appeal. Still I’m glad the heat is directed to Koster, and not the other Democrats.

Now look, I love primaries and I have no problem with them getting a bit rough and tumble (there are important issues at play). But these are the sort of things I love most about primaries. Even if Rudderman wins, all of Darcy Burner’s supporters (who bother to open their email, and read it) will have seen this. And if any media (beyond HA) mention it, even better.

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Open Thread 6/25

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 6/25/12, 7:53 am

– Decline to sign the charter schools initiative.

– Vincent Chin would have been 57 today. But the Michigan man never made it out of his 20s. Instead, 30 years ago this week Chin was brutally murdered when he was bludgeoned with a baseball bat wielded by two white, jobless auto workers who thought Chin, a Chinese-American man, was Japanese.

– Lou Dobbs is a horrible person [h/t].

– If evangelicalism were primarily a theological tradition, then British and American evangelicals would be more similar than they are. But American evangelicalism has ceased to be mainly a theological category. It’s now mainly a political subculture, a tribe.

– Pennsylvania State University, as an institution, decided that protecting Joe Paterno’s reputation and winning a few more football games was more important than stopping the ongoing rape of young boys.

– Give me a rambling rover.

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Bird’s Eye View Contest

by Lee — Sunday, 6/24/12, 12:00 pm

Last week’s contest was won by wes.in.wa. It was the Whispering Firs Golf Course on JBLM.

This week’s contest is related to something in the news from June, good luck!

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HA Bible Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 6/24/12, 7:00 am

Psalm 82:1
When all of the other gods have come together, the Lord God judges them

Discuss.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 6/22/12, 11:58 pm

Obama For America outtakes.

Young Turks: CIA documents show Bin Laden warnings ignored:

Thom: Republicans find another union to bust.

Greenman: Climate crocks…Marc Morano at Heartland.

ONN: The Onion Week in Review.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Sam Seder: New 9/11 documents expose Bush admin. lies.

Susie Sampson Tea Party Report: Immigration!

Full of Mitt:

  • SlateNews: Mitt to America: Ignore the good news.
  • Sam Seder: Mitt talks and talks but won’t answer on immigration.
  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Mitt Romney wants G.O.P. Govs to lie to Americans.
  • Obama on Mitt Romney outsourcing jobs.
  • Thom: Mitt wants a 12.5% Tax Break that you pay for.
  • Mitt Romeny on immigration reform.
  • Maddow: Romney fails to lead on immigration
  • Ann Telnaes: Mitt explains his immigration policy.
  • Sam Seder: Mitt’s sons on their dad.
  • Romney learns about touchtone touch screen technology (via Slog).
  • John King on Romney’s immigration speech
  • Mark Fiore: DeficitBots.
  • Sam Seder: Mitt to G.O.P. Governors, “Shhhhhhhh”.

Slate News: Springsteen won’t hang with Chris Christie.

Alyona: Romney Doppelganger hates poor people.

Indecision in the park.

A clown answer for Harry Reid: video platform
video management
video solutions
video player

Sam Seder: Vagina mentioning Rep. like “child who needed a time out”.

Thom: What do Republicans love about rape?

Young Turks: Secret right wing money spent on deceptive ads.

Ann Telnaes: Sheldon Adelson’s gift.

Fast, but mostly Furious:

  • Thom and Pap: Ongoing Fast and Furious conspiracy theory.
  • Jon attacks the Obama admin over executive privilege.
  • Sam Seder: GOP’s sad attempt at finding a scandal.
  • Ed and Pap: Darrel Issa’s contempt for democracy
  • Maddow: Gun fanatics invent conspiracy, ignore real gun violence.
  • Thom: F&F, why didn’t Pelosi arrest Rove?

ONN: Tea Party quiet—too quiet.

Sam Seder and Chris Hayes: Twilight of the Elites: America After Meritocracy.

Young Turks: Poll shows Republicans grossly misinformed on Iran, Iraq.

Alyona: Indiana Wingnut covers his bases on SCOTUS ruling.

Obama in Tampa.

“Joe” the “Historian”:

  • Slate News: Joe’s surreal ad
  • “Joe” the “Plumber” blames gun control for the Holocaust.
  • Sam Seder: Joe’s new bizarre ad.

White House: West Wing Week.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Arizona’s Secretary of State Ken Bennett is back with more Birfer insanity.

Anti-Obama teleprompter ad.

Young Turks: 2/3 of Republicans believe Obama was born outside of U.S.

Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Poll Analysis: Romney slips

by Darryl — Friday, 6/22/12, 12:30 pm


Obama Romney
99.7% probability of winning 0.3% probability of winning
Mean of 326 electoral votes Mean of 212 electoral votes

Ten days ago, Mitt Romney was on a roll. He had increased his probability of beating President Obama in a hypothetical election held then from 0.4% to 0.8%, and he gained in expected electoral votes up to 225. That was last week. This week, Romney slips.

There have been 18 new polls released to weigh in on the race:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ PPP 04-Jun 05-Jun 791 3.5 46 49 R+3
CO PPP 14-Jun 17-Jun 799 3.5 49 42 O+7
FL Quinnipiac 12-Jun 18-Jun 1697 2.4 46 42 O+4
IA WeAskAmerica 18-Jun 18-Jun 1086 3.0 45 44 O+1
ME WBUR 13-Jun 14-Jun 506 4.4 48 34 O+14
MI Mitchell 18-Jun 18-Jun 750 3.6 47 46 O+1
MI WeAskAmerica 18-Jun 18-Jun 1010 3.1 43 45 R+2
MI Rasmussen 14-Jun 14-Jun 500 4.5 50 42 O+8
MI Baydoun 12-Jun 12-Jun 1783 2.3 46.9 45.5 O+1.4
MT Rasmussen 18-Jun 18-Jun 400 4.5 42 51 R+9
NE PNA 11-Jun 13-Jun 601 — 40 52 R+12
NV PPP 07-Jun 10-Jun 500 4.4 48 42 O+6
NH Rasmussen 20-Jun 20-Jun 500 4.5 48 43 O+5
NJ Eagleton-Rutgers 31-May 04-Jun 1065 2.9 56 33 O+23
WA PPP 14-Jun 17-Jun 1073 3.0 54 41 O+13
WA Elway 13-Jun 16-Jun 408 5.0 49 41 O+8
WI Marquette 13-Jun 15-Jun 594 4.1 49 43 O+6
WI Rasmussen 12-Jun 12-Jun 500 4.5 44 47 R+3

[Read more…]

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What Would You Poll?

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 6/22/12, 8:03 am

Via Blue Oregon, I see that PPP are asking for suggestions for what they want polled in OR, OH and MA. But it got me thinking of some things I’d like polled in Washington.

  • I know it’s my hobby horse, and nobody else cares. But I’d like to see if there’s any support for making it necessary to get 2/3 of the legislature to cut education or social services.
  • I don’t trust the conventional wisdom on the 10th district. I don’t know that a district that’s largely exurban and suburban Pierce County and has Joint Base Lewis-McChord in the middle of it with Olympia (and Olympia’s suburbs) should be considered safe for Democrats. I’d like to see polling confirming that.
  • Since we’re on this blog, how about “Is Tim Eyman a Horse’s Ass?”

But enough of me saying what I’d like to see, what would you like to see in polls in Washington State?

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Is Opposing Marriage Equality Christian?

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 6/21/12, 7:17 pm

I don’t think it is. I mean we’re a secular country. So our laws don’t reflect one doctrine or one religion over another. And Christians who oppose letting anyone getting married clearly aren’t the oppressed minority they seem to think they are.

Still, it’s nice to see the push back from the Christian community beyond just a live and let live attitude. Joel Connelly has an interesting piece on the Minnesota anti-marriage equality constitutional amendment. After noting the official Catholic Church position, he talks about Catholics who oppose the amendment:

Three retired priests recently sent a letter to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune under the heading, “Catholics of Minnesota, you have a choice. There is not just one way for Catholics to vote in November.”

Rev. Tom Garvey, a priest for 55 years, spoke to Minnesota Public Radio about Nienstedt’s edict, saying: “That was a terrible thing, such an injustice to say you cannot disagree with me on this matter.”

And in other religions, the officialdom is getting on the right side of history.

Five synods of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (ECLA) have voted to oppose it. The United Methodist Church in Minnesota has come out against it.

The proposed amendment “would prevent one group of committed couples and their families from pursuing ordinary legislative or legal means to gain the support and protections afforded to all others,” said a resolution passed by the Minneapolis Synod of the ECLA.

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Open Thread 6/21

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 6/21/12, 8:02 am

– Oh, that kind of marriage equality.

– I didn’t know anything about the story of the story KIRO ran about the Leschi custodian. But the response from the Washington News Council makes me glad there’s at least some type of accountability.

– The Interurban Trail in Edmonds.

– This influx of cash followed a major effort by Zimmerman’s supporters to cast him as the real victim, a poor man being railroaded by the justice system and major media outlets. They flooded comment sections and social media with racist horseshit, tried desperately to dig up dirt on Martin and discovered that he was, get this, a fucking teenager, and did whatever they could to violently shove the media narrative in the other direction because it made their guy look bad and didn’t make the young boy he had killed look bad enough.

– Another 36th District debate.

– How have you been celebrating National Pollinator Week?

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Sex Demons

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 6/20/12, 6:11 pm

I should start out by saying that Mars Hill have been good neighbors since they opened a church in my neighborhood. They’re a part of the community, and it’s appreciated. That said, what the fuck [h/t]?

“Mark started the meeting by telling us he was convinced that I had demons,” says Amy, “and then he went on to add that my demons were ‘sexual demons’.”

Amy describes Mark’s demeanor toward her as a “fiery tirade”. During this encounter, Mark told Amy he believed that every one of her sins were “sex based.” He said that the demons inside her were out to destroy every one of the marriages in their circle of friends.

Really, I don’t know what to say (other than muttering “sex demons?” repeatedly under my breath, and that’s probably not helpful).

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Pride Flag

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 6/20/12, 7:49 am

It’s that time of year again. Time to debate if the Space Needle should fly the rainbow flag.

The Space Needle, a symbol of Seattle though owned by a private company, initially said it would not fly the rainbow flag last year. The company changed its mind after $50,000 was raised to benefit charities that work with the LGBT community, and the flag waved during Seattle’s 2011 Gay Pride Parade.

The 2012 parade is this weekend. Space Needle managers haven’t responded to my question about whether they will or won’t fly the flag atop the structure, now painted “galaxy orange” in honor of its 50th anniversary.

I hope they fly it every year, like the 12th man flag.

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