Before we get too removed from the Trump tapes, I’d like to extend an extra special fuck you to the people who enabled Trump over the decades who are now condemning him. Oh Republican elected officials who knew who he was thing this is beyond the pale. Great, but you’re late to the fucking party. Mitt Romney spent half of 2012 alone with Trump and still desperately courted his vote. He was a gentleman the whole time? Oh producers of his show say he said even worse? And yet you kept working with him. Oh there’s probably tape of him dropping n-bombs? Did you not do anything when they first came out?
Debate Open Thread
I am putting this up early tonight because I am in Redmond, heading to the Roanoke. The SR520 bridge is closed, which makes my commute a bit uncertain. So have at it in the comment threads, and I’ll join you as soon as possible.
6:04: We’ve started!
6:07: “We’re going to respect each other.” We’ll see!
6:08: Overheard at the Roanoke: “Oh my God…he’s medicated!”
6:09: Trump isn’t going to even try to answer the question.
Did Donald Trump take advice from Jeb! for this debate?
— Civic Skunk Works (@civicskunkworks) October 10, 2016
Trump has been completely out-alphaed and now sounds like he's in a hostage video.
— Matthew Gertz (@MattGertz) October 10, 2016
I spend a fair amount of time in locker rooms (I'm assuming more than DJT) – we don't brag about sexually assaulting women. #debate
— Michael Maddux (@michaeljmaddux) October 10, 2016
Trump: "No one has more respect for women than I do." Laugher…
— NPI (@nwprogressive) October 10, 2016
…Certainly here at the Roanoke!
6:12: When asked about sexual assault, Trump talks ISIS. I’m sure he’s hit on her, too.
Smart of Clinton to tie the sex tape to a broader indictment of Trump's hate speech and pathologically abusive tendencies.
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) October 10, 2016
Anderson Cooper: Why did you brag about sexually assaulting women?
Trump: ***SNIFF***#debates— Megan Burbank (@meganireneb) October 10, 2016
6:16: “For THE African Americans.” Hasn’t ANYONE talked to him about his awkward use of language?
OK, this just went nuclear
— Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) October 10, 2016
Hillary quotes Michelle Obama. Unlike Melania, she gives credit to the source. #debate
— The Daily Edge (@TheDailyEdge) October 10, 2016
The preparation gap here is just extraordinary.
— Ezra Klein (@ezraklein) October 10, 2016
Calling trump a bullshit artist is an insult to bullshit artists. #Debate #ImWithHer
— Jeff Davies (@JeffDavies206) October 10, 2016
6:23: Holy fuck…Trump is having a melt down!!!!
6:25: “You should be You’d be in jail.” Very presidential.
Gloves are OFF those itty-bitty hands! Whoo!
— Mordant FreedomVoter (@MordantFV) October 10, 2016
Flashback: Donald Trump Called Bill Clinton's Accusers 'Terrible' and 'Unattractive' and… https://t.co/OqK7hUgu3R https://t.co/bH0dzXtFHo
— memeorandum (@memeorandum) October 10, 2016
Q about Healthcare: HRC ANSWERS THE FUCKING QUESTION!!!! #debate
— Michael Maddux (@michaeljmaddux) October 10, 2016
What good is power if you're not going to use it to prosecute your political enemies? https://t.co/scUDSSqYpb
— Omri Ceren (@cerenomri) October 10, 2016
ObamaCare has obviously failed to fix Donald Trump's breathing problems. #debate
— (((Goldy))) (@GoldyHA) October 10, 2016
Trump is saying he has no idea what his health care replacement would be. #debate
— John Fugelsang (@JohnFugelsang) October 10, 2016
6:36: Donald Trump cannot give specifics. His health care plans are more aspirational than operational.
reminder that health care prices are actually rising at the slowest pace in 50 years https://t.co/CfeBDdorS8 pic.twitter.com/y04VNMXEd2
— Catherine Rampell (@crampell) October 10, 2016
6:39: A lot of sniffing going on there, Donald.
Shorter Trump: Shame about your islamaphobia but you muslims have to pick up your game and be batter.
— Sam Seder (@SamSeder) October 10, 2016
If HRC was sniffling like Donald Trump is, Breitbart would claim she has Black Lung.
— Brad Dayspring (@BDayspring) October 10, 2016
6:46: Trump is very whiney this evening.
With all of those sniffles, I don't think Trump should talk about "drug problems" #Debate #CokeNose
— Michael Maddux (@michaeljmaddux) October 10, 2016
Trump's position on Iraq over the years #debate pic.twitter.com/wUMZVWTQVQ
— Roll Call (@rollcall) October 10, 2016
6:50: “She is blaming it on the late, great Abraham Lincoln”. Do we really say “late, great” for someone who has been dead for so long?
Trump just promised to make the wealthy pay their fair share by making them pay less. #Debate
— John Fugelsang (@JohnFugelsang) October 10, 2016
7:00: Okay…he’s unhinged again!
Trump admitted that he hasn’t paid taxes — and that won’t be the big story tonight.
— Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) October 10, 2016
Bill 5 seconds from swinging on Donald #Debate pic.twitter.com/rpCcSDgeH5
— Corey Johnson (@coreymaurice) October 10, 2016
Trump: "Hillary Clinton has been president for 30 years!" Apparently. #debate
— (((Goldy))) (@GoldyHA) October 10, 2016
7:02: Clinton should have responded, “There you go whipping out that ’30 years of experience’ thing again.
My two reactions during the #debate pic.twitter.com/26P0Kg1nNW
— Greg Baumann (@glbaumann) October 10, 2016
7:09: Trump is now debating his running mate. This is precious!!!!
Whoah…well, maybe Pence drops the race now? #Debate
— Michael Maddux (@michaeljmaddux) October 10, 2016
This debate is the second-worst thing that ever happened to Abraham Lincoln
— Casey Newton (@CaseyNewton) October 10, 2016
7:15: Dear Donald, Maybe they don’t interrupt Clinton because her answers are coherent, responsive. Quit your persistent whining!!!
Whenever a black person asks a question, Trump talks about inner cities. The racism is breathtaking. #debates
— Kumail Nanjiani (@kumailn) October 10, 2016
7:22: Q about Trump’s “sextape” tweet. Trump: “Benghazi!!!!”
"CHECK OUT SEX TAPE" *WAS YOUR* QUOTE, DONALD.
— Erica C. Barnett (@ericacbarnett) October 10, 2016
Trump denies he sent a tweet urging people to check out a sex tape. #debate
Fact check: https://t.co/h2RhMd2oPm
— The Daily Edge (@TheDailyEdge) October 10, 2016
The billionaire who promised to fund his own campaign just bragged about all the small donors he's scamming #debate
— Richard Hine (@richardhine) October 10, 2016
Conclusion: Trump was better medicated and didn’t do worse than last time. Clinton, as always was in control. Trump may GAIN from this debate…but probably not enough to offset the big losses from his “bus tape”.
IN CONCLUSION: Trump vowed to jail his opponent, admitted he paid no taxes for over a decade and kneecapped his running mate.
— LOLGOP (@LOLGOP) October 10, 2016
Trump is the king of empty sentences. No actual information. Like giving a presentation in class when u did none of the reading. #Debate
— jesseWilliams. (@iJesseWilliams) October 10, 2016
The only story the media should be covering is Trump threatening to jail his political opponent.
— Nick Hanauer (@NickHanauer) October 10, 2016
Seattle’s Drinking Liberally Debate Watching Party
Perhaps you considered skipping tonight’s second Presidential debate between Sec. Hillary Clinton and Reality TV Host Donald Trump. Not any more, huh?
If you are looking for a venue for this evening, please join our debate-watching party at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern. The debate starts at 6:00pm.
Also, join us Tuesday for our normal meeting of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening over the next week. Tonight, the Federal Way, Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet. On Thursday, the Kent chapter meets. And on Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.
There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.
HA Bible Study: Isaiah 13:16
Isaiah 13:16
Their houses shall be spoiled, and their wives ravished.
Discuss.
Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
John Oliver: Police accountability.
Stephen: Gary Johnson is running his campaign…into the ground.
Lewis Black: Getting out the millennial vote:
Bill Maher with Sen. Al Franken.
The 2016 Pussy-footing around the Alt-Right Clown:
- Donald Drumpf chats with Billy Bush
- Stephen: “All the Tic Tacs in the world aren’t going to freshen his breath after this.”
- Young Turks: Drumpf hot-mic tape leak:
- David Pakman: Is leaked audio the end for Drumpf?
- Amazing CNN discussion segment.
- Drumpf’s bizarre video apology.
- Young Turks: Will rapey Drump audio doom his campaign?
- Olbermann: The most un-American thing a presidential candidate has ever done.
- Stephen: Gael Garcia Bernal has already started building the wall.
- Maddow: The Atlantic makes historic anti-endorsement of Drumpf
- Conan: Dylan Moran knows why Drump is smiling
- Jimmy Kimmel: Coked-up Drumpf.
- Mark Fiore: Absurd Reality.
- Jimmy Fallon: Donald Drumpf calls Madea
- Drumpf catasstrophy
- Chris Hayes: Drumpf still thinks ‘Central Park Five’ are guilty
- Stephen: Donald Drumpf’s one and only newspaper endorsement
- James Corden: Is it Ne-VAD-uh or Ne-VAH-duh? Ask Donald Drumpf
- Olbermann: Drumpf’s 50 most ridiculous excuses.
- PsychoSuperMom: The last time Drumpf paid taxes.
- Seth Meyers: A Closer Look at Drumpf’s terrible week.
- Jimmy Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf
- Olbermann: How Donald Drumpf figures he’ll win Sunday’s debate
- Samantha Bee: Party like it’s 1997
- Stephen: Drumpf asks the terminally ill for a huge favor.
- Bill Maher with New Rules: America rules, Drumpf drools.
- Slate: Libertarian VP nominee focusing on stopping Drumpf
- Michael Brooks: Rudy Giuliani claims Drump is an ‘absolute genius’ for not paying taxes
- Jimmy Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf on jobs.
- Olbermann: Why is Drumpf such a weirdo about dogs?
- Young Turks: There was one group Donald Drumpf forgot to insult—the dying.
- Donald Drumpf’s insult-driven campaign.
- Olbermann: Drumpf voters are angry? Here’s what’s worthy of anger
- Jimmy Kimmel: Coked-up Drumpf – sweating
Lewis Black Black to the Future – The Longest Election Cycle.
Kimmel : The week in unnecessary censorship.
SNL: 2016 Presidential Debate:
Bill Maher: I don’t know it for a fact…I just know it’s true.
Trevor: Congress overrides 9/11 veto.
Jimmy Dore: Even FAUX News see through Christie’s BS.
PsychoSuperMom: Dear Internet Trolls.
Daily Show: “The O’Reilly Factor” Gets Racist in Chinatown.
VP Wannabe:
- Trevor: VP Debate recap.
- Samantha Bee: Meet the Veeps
- Conan: How networks made the Veep debate more interesting.
- Stephen: Does anyone know who the VP candidates are?
- Maddow: Both campaigns look for advantage in debate
- Seth Meyers: Late Night Vice-Presidential debate
- Randy Rainbow moderates the VP debate.
- Young Turks: Drumpf jealous of his VP.
- Slate: The VP debate in 2 minutes.
- James Corden: Two guys debated last night.
- Seth Meyers: A closer look at Mike Pence pretending Donald Drumpr isn’t his running mate
- Sam Seder: Pence distances himself from Drumpf.
- Stephen: Did Mike Penceupstage Drumpf with his strong debate performance?
- Songify Pence v. Kaine:
- Slate: Watch Mike Pence lie in the VP debate.
- Stephen is fuzzing happy the VP debate is over.
White House: West Wing Week.
Seth Meyers: Chelsea Clinton on life-long family attacks and Bad ’90s fashion.
Mental Floss: 44 facts about birds.
Jimmy Dore: Ted Cruz humiliates himself in one embarrassing, slimy phone call.
Samantha Bee: Maine’s personal Drumpf.
Sam Seder: Cruz’s pathetic phone banking for Drumpf.
Adam Ruins Everything: Why your AirBnB may be illegal.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Open Thread — 7 Oct
It’s always a bit tough to figure out when companies make decisions that activists have been pushing, how much is because of those activists, and how much is the stated reasons. So Shell won’t be sending oil trains to Anacortes.
I don’t know how much oil prices had to do with it as the company says, and how much activists and environmentalists won the day. It’s great for Anacortes, and good for everywhere between there and the Bakken.
O’Penthread
On top of the instrumental benefits of getting the hell around much faster, Sound Transit expansion will be good for the environment. It’s sort of duh, but it’s nice to be able to read some specifics. It’s nice to be able to say it will cut over 360 million vehicle miles per year, save 800,000 tons of annual carbon emissions. Rather than just I assume it must be because driving is still driving.
Live Blogging the VP Debate
Because, why not.
Feel free to add your own commentary to the discussion thread.
This line, interestingly, is also what Trump considers foreplay. #VPDebate https://t.co/82581jr86r
— Grace Parra (@GraceParra360) October 5, 2016
6:04: “Kaine wins the coin toss…people are saying the coin is rigged, so rigged. Believe me!”
6:08: Donald Trump certainly isn’t “stifled” by taxes!
6:09: Pence seems to be rambling.
6:10: I see Kaine is wearing his commie child-slaying arugula-eaters flag pin this evening. Typical.
The GOP Just Published A Bunch Of Post-Debate ~Blog Posts~ Before The Debate Started https://t.co/zY1PCzq7M1 https://t.co/KCK72IsTiU
— memeorandum (@memeorandum) October 5, 2016
"Gov. Pence, can you pinpoint the exact moment you decided to sell your soul to the devil?" #VPDebate
— shauna (@goldengateblond) October 5, 2016
6:16: Somebody is going to be fired. The idiot who mixed up their ties.
6:18: Pence’s blue tie with that background makes his hair look blue. He should be a poll worker on election day!
Sure, it looks bad when Kaine interrupts, but is there any other way to get a word in against Pence's relentless filibustering? #VPDebate
— (((Goldy))) (@GoldyHA) October 5, 2016
Pence promising 4% economic growth with same tax cuts for the rich that crashed the economy last time #VPDebate #DoesNotCompute
— The Daily Edge (@TheDailyEdge) October 5, 2016
6:21: Now that we have gotten past the early interupty start, both candidates are effectively filibustering.
6:23: Time for the “bikini graph”:
FACT: Under Pres. Obama, we've had 78 straight months of private sector job growth = 15.1 million jobs! #VPdebate pic.twitter.com/3l2XgkfGqr
— Sally Kohn (@sallykohn) October 5, 2016
Shorter Pence — You have statistics? Well, I have homespun anecdotes about down-on-their-luck Americans!
— Chris Megerian (@ChrisMegerian) October 5, 2016
6:25: “Donald Trump has created thousands of unpaid subcontractors.”
6:27: Pence, “There they go again…” Laughter erupts.
They should have gone with Warren and Gingrich. This debate would have been much more entertaining. #VPDebate
— Samuel Minter (@abulsme) October 5, 2016
Mike Pence: We will save Social Security by letting Donald Trump continue taking all the deductions he's entitled to and paying $0 #VPDebate
— The Daily Edge (@TheDailyEdge) October 5, 2016
6:35: I hate anecdotes in politics.
Let's please have more forums for wealthy white men to argue about whether or not racial bias against black men exists. #VPDebate
— Grace Parra (@GraceParra360) October 5, 2016
As a radio host Pence described himself as "Rush Limbaugh on decaf." Probably more like "Rush Limbaugh on life support." https://t.co/u6q1vxBJ05
— Paul Constant (@paulconstant) October 5, 2016
6:40: What makes Trump and Pence such a good team: One of them constantly pops Viagra, the other, Ambien.
Um…Pence – half (or more) of your supporters ARE a basket of deplorables. #VPDebate
— Michael Maddux (@michaeljmaddux) October 5, 2016
Kaine is absolutely right regarding Clinton apologies/regrets on comments she made compared to lack of same from Trump. #VPDebate
— Ken Rudin (@kenrudin) October 5, 2016
#VPDebate Pence seems not to have heard a lot that has gone on in the Trump campaign thus far. He seems so innocent.
— Paula Poundstone (@paulapoundstone) October 5, 2016
BREAKING: Mike Pence calls Trump's deportation plan "nonsense" #VPDebate
— The Daily Edge (@TheDailyEdge) October 5, 2016
Donald Trump is literally married to an immigrant.
— Seattlish (@seattlish) October 5, 2016
A communist immigrant!!!!!!!
Not in the eyes of God. https://t.co/GpnxQ1QXoG
— (((Goldy))) (@GoldyHA) October 5, 2016
Crime rates among immigrants are lower than the native born. https://t.co/LRws5Zq28L
— (((Goldy))) (@GoldyHA) October 5, 2016
Kaine: "Donald Trump can't start a Twitter war with Miss Universe without shooting off his foot" #VPDebate
— Roll Call (@rollcall) October 5, 2016
6:49: Contra Pence, Obama did not bring bin Laden “to Justice”. He had him executed.
#VPDebate Kaine says something that Trump said, Pence shakes his head. His head would have spun of his shoulders if he heard Trump say it.
— Paula Poundstone (@paulapoundstone) October 5, 2016
Pence is denying that Trump said the things he said. Kaine not calling out effectively.
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) October 5, 2016
Pence just said it's "absolutely false" that Trump proposed restricting Muslims from entering the U.S.
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) October 5, 2016
6:58: The moderator needs a switch to cut off their microphones!
Did someone say Russia? Hello! pic.twitter.com/4tyEHunght
— Chris Cillizza (@TheFix) October 5, 2016
7:00: Does Donald know that Pence is saying all these anti-Russia things?!?
It should be noted that Pence's foreign policy, as he's described in this debate, is not Trump's foreign policy.
— David M. Drucker (@DavidMDrucker) October 5, 2016
This will soon be deleted so save this screenshot #VPDebate pic.twitter.com/HpnPcFeqtb
— ThinkProgress (@thinkprogress) October 5, 2016
The Feckless Obama Administration emboldened a Russia that went into Georgia…WHILE GEORGE W BUSH WAS PRESIDENT
— Mike Pesca (@pescami) October 5, 2016
Umm your candidate literally repeatedly asked why we cant use nuclear weapons, Pence.
— Seattlish (@seattlish) October 5, 2016
There's nothing cuter than Mike Pence trying to assert that Clinton is more low-brow than Trump.
— Ken Tremendous (@KenTremendous) October 5, 2016
Hand to God, here's how it's gonna go if I'm ever a moderator and men talk over me. #VPDebate pic.twitter.com/FNxkQK2wd1
— Helen Ubiñas (@NotesFromHeL) October 5, 2016
Putin isn't voting in this election but he got more attention than women did in this debate.
— Rebecca Leber (@rebleber) October 5, 2016
7:18: Clearly, the Clintons read the bestselling “Foundations for Dummies”
Only one of the candidates' charitable foundations has been ordered to stop fundraising. (Hint: It's not the Clinton Foundation.) #VPDebate
— shauna (@goldengateblond) October 5, 2016
Debate so far:
Intro
Intro
<crosstalk>
Cyber
RussiaRussiaRussiaRussiaRussiaRussiaRussiaRussia
<crosstalk>
Moderator: Syria?
RussiaRussia— Hanna Brooks Olsen (@mshannabrooks) October 5, 2016
The Clinton Foundation has an A+ rating from Charity Watch.
Yesterday the Trump Foundation was ordered to stop fundraising in NY. #VPDebate
— Senator Tim Kaine (@timkaine) October 5, 2016
Are you fucking kidding me with this crap? https://t.co/UUQT9ENh9s
— Daniel Drezner (@dandrezner) October 5, 2016
7:26: Shorter Pence: “I’m an anti-abortion fanatic!”
Mike Pence explains why his faith makes him against abortion, which Jesus never mentioned, and for the death penalty, which Jesus opposed.
— John Fugelsang (@JohnFugelsang) October 5, 2016
7:30: Statement of the night: Pence, “Look, he is not a polished politician.”
Deeply Christian Mike Pence reminds you that Donald Trump, who wants to bring back torture, stands for the right to life.
— John Fugelsang (@JohnFugelsang) October 5, 2016
7:32: I was hoping for more debate on Donald Trump’s “personal Vietnam.”
Reminds me of Bonnie Raitt's line, "Jody & Chico and his ding dang deal" https://t.co/lmBCIK455j
— Darryl Holman (@hominidviews) October 5, 2016
Facts about Mike Pence and abortion. Pass it on. #VPDebate pic.twitter.com/ceIxxnepvE
— shauna (@goldengateblond) October 5, 2016
Again with the "War on Coal" line. Pence is making a play to finally flip WV, WY, and MT red. Or something. #VPDebate
— (((Goldy))) (@GoldyHA) October 5, 2016
VP Debate Edition of Drinking Liberally — Seattle
The VP debate is tonight, so the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally will start early. Please join us for an evening of debate cheers and jeers over over a pint.
We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. For the debate, we’ll start at 6:00 pm.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Long Beach, and West Seattle chapters also meet. The Lakewood and Bellingham chapters meet on Wednesday.
On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets.
There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.
Poll Analysis: Clinton surges post-debate
We have now had a few days for post-debate polls to trickle out. My previous analysis, four days ago, was almost entirely pre-debate polls. It showed Clinton with a 79.2% probability of winning the election with, on average, 288 electoral votes.
There have been about 20 or so post-debate state head-to-head polls released, mostly in competitive states. The results confirm the general wisdom that Clinton gained the edge from the first debate.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 92,456 times and Trump wins 7,544 times (including the 1,007 ties). Clinton received (on average) 300 to Trump’s 238 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 92.5% probability of winning and Trump would have a 7.5% probability of winning.
A couple of states showed some interesting changes:
In Colorado one poll aged out and we got two new polls today that both have Clinton up by +11%. This has moved the probability from 51.4% for Trump to 83.7% for Clinton. The state is still quite close, but the magnitude of Clinton’s lead in two polls suggest that Clinton now has the advantage.
The story is similar in Florida one poll aged out, and three new polls were released, all with Clinton leading. Clinton’s leads, however, are smaller at 4%, +0.2% and 5%. Clinton is leading in 6 of the 10 current polls. Trump had a 60.6% probability of taking Florida 4 days ago, now Clinton is up with a 62.9% probability. The state is still mighty close!
Trump gains a bit in Iowa, not because of any new polls—there have been none since the debate. Rather one poll aged out. Trump leads in 2 of the 3 current Iowa polls.
Nevada gains two new polls with Clinton up by +6% and +1%. As a result Trump’s probability of winning of 66.8% four days ago has shrunk to 47.6%. This is, basically, a tie.
New Hampshire is over-polled because of a competitive Senate race. We lost one poll and gained two new ones in 4 days with Clinton up +6% and +7%. Clinton’s chances go up a bit to a 99.1% probability of winning today.
We have one new poll in New Jersey for a total of 2 polls. This one has Clinton up 6.4%, and so Clinton moves from a 78.3% probability to a 92.5% probability of taking the state.
In New Mexico, one old poll was replaced by a new (but small) poll that has Clinton up +4%. The previous poll had her at +9%. As a result, Clinton’s chances have dropped from 99.4% to 77.3% probability of winning the state now. The polling history suggests that Clinton is very likely to take New Mexico:
Two new polls, and the loss of an old poll in North Carolina have strengthened Clinton’s tenuous hold on the state. She now has lead in five consecutive NC polls, but the margins are small (+1%, +3%, +1%, +2.6% and +1%). Her chances have gone from 52.2% to 56.7%. Still, pretty much a tie.
In Pennsylvania we lose two polls and gain one new one. This has tightened the race slightly, but Clinton still has a 94.9% probability of taking the state. The polling history does suggest a tightening of the race, but Clinton leads the last 5 polls by small margins (+4%, +3%, +1%, +2%, +2%).
Virginia loses one poll and gains two new ones. Four days ago, Clinton had a 99.7% probability of winning. Today, she takes all but 28 of the 100,000 simulated elections.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 03-Oct-2015 to 03-Oct-2016, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ). As we’ve seen before, Clinton is on the move upward, after hitting a “low” that still had her most likely winning the election.
Note that the polls have yet to “speak” to Donald Trump’s other problems that arose after the debate—his 3am tweet about an Hispanic model (Alicia Machado) and her non-existent “sextape”, Trump’s own soft-core porn video, Trump’s suggestion that his opponent is cheating on her spouse, Trump’s partial 1995 tax forms showing over $900 million losses, the Trump Foundation’s potential legal problems, his badly-stated comment about Vets with PTSD, and a bunch of high profile newspaper non-endorsements. If these issues affect the polls, we’ll see the effects over the next week or two.
Of course, things may not continue to favor Clinton. Wednesday is supposedly the “October Surprise” that will un-do her.
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Open Thread October 3
I’ve always thought that with vote by mail and the general good government stance of the state, that Republican secretaries of state can’t fuck things up too badly. But Kim Wyman is determined to try.
HA Bible Study: Genesis 11:10-24
Genesis 11:10-24
Two years after the flood, when Shem was one hundred, he had a son named Arpachshad. He had more children and died at the age of six hundred. This is a list of his descendants:When Arpachshad was thirty-five, he had a son named Shelah. Arpachshad had more children and died at the age of four hundred thirty-eight.
When Shelah was thirty, he had a son named Eber. Shelah had more children and died at the age of four hundred thirty-three.
When Eber was thirty-four, he had a son named Peleg. Eber had more children and died at the age of four hundred sixty-four.
When Peleg was thirty, he had a son named Reu. Peleg had more children and died at the age of two hundred thirty-nine.
When Reu was thirty-two he had a son named Serug. Reu had more children and died at the age of two hundred thirty-nine.
When Serug was thirty, he had a son named Nahor. Serug had more children and died at the age of two hundred thirty.
When Nahor was twenty-nine, he had a son named Terah. Nahor had more children and died at the age of one hundred forty-eight.
Discuss.
Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
A voter registration day message from the Late Show.
Jimmy Dore: War Criminal George W Bush is having a great time with paint.
Obama: Votes matter.
The 2016 G.O.P./Alt-Right Shit Show:
- Drumpf’s temperament
- PsychoSuperMom: He’s A M-I-S-O-G-Y-N-I-S-T
- Michael Brooks: Paul Ryan suggests the GOP won’t actually use Drumpf’s plans.
- Drumpf Train: sexist.
- Olbermann: Why Donald Drumpf’s Russian connection is a huuuge problem.
- Black people for Drumpf:
- Trevor: Drumpf doubles down on fat shaming Miss Universe.
- Lin-Manuel Miranda presents: The Donald Drumpf run-on sentence musical
- Farron Cousins: Drumpf’s “Basket Of Deplorables” is overflowing with bigotry
- David Pakman: 10 emotional abuse tactics used by Drumpf in 1st debate
- Young Turks: Drumpf wants you to watch a sex tape.
- Dante
- Bill Maher: New Rule: Drumpf’s basket of inexplicables
- Drumpf: “She deserves it”
- Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf on phones.
- Young Turks: Even Drumpf’s friends say he is incompetent.
- Olbermann: 74 terrible things Drumpf has done…THIS MONTH.
- Stephen: After first debate, Drumpf is up 20 points in Narnia
- Drumpf’s new exercise promo.
- Young Turks: Drumpf Foundation is Drumpf’s personal piggy bank.
- Olbermann: Drumpf supporters are now blaming their racism on Obama
- Jimmy Dore: Donald Drumpf doubles down on fat-shaming Miss Universe Alicia Machado
- Bill Maher: Lesser known Drumpf endorsements.
- Drumpf’s $0 in taxes.
- Stephen: The Dalai Lama does a Drumpf impression.
- Olbermann: About that other wall that Drumpf is building.
- Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf on Planes.
Jon Batiste: Hey, White people!
Adam Ruins Everything: Why a wall won’t work:
White House: West Wing Week.
Debate is What Catches De Fish:
- Seth Meyers: The first presidential debate.
- Debate one recap:
- Stephen: First debate lives up to the hype.
- James Corden: Recapping the Debate.
- Young Turks: Donald Drumpf was in a porn movie
- David Pakman: Drumpf debate performance makes Saturday Night Live irrelevant
- Full Frontal: Debate Watchers
- Drumpf has a great temperament.
- Seth Meyers: Debate fallout…a Closer Look.
- Trevor: Stop-and-frisk unpacked.
- Red State Update: Debate update.
- Another debate recap.
- Jimmy Dore: Donald Drumpf brutally humiliated Miss Universe Alicia Machado
- Stephen watched the debate with The ghost of Abe Lincoln.
- Samantha Bee: Debate advice she didn’t ask for.
- Kimmel: 400 lb hacker is offended.
- Randy Rainbow: BRAGGADOCIOUS!:
- Samantha Bee: Debate part II
- Trevor: Donald Drumpf’s post-debate spin
- Seth Meyers: Late Night 2016 Presidential Debate
- Mark Fiore: Debating the debate
- Bill Maher: Another episode of “yes this is really happening.”
- David Pakman: After losing debate badly, Drumpf’s damage control is embarrassing
- Thom and John Fugelsang: Dream on.
- Jimmy Fallon and VP Biden on the debate.
- Stephen: Debate hangover.
- Trevor Noah: Sparks fly at the first Drumpf-Clinton presidential debate
- Songify the debate.
- Samantha Bee: Debate part III
Stephen: Elizabeth Warren rips Wells Fargo’s CEO a new one.
John Oliver: 2016 Scandals.
Olbermann: How to gauge Clinton’s lead over Drumpf.
Here is how they try to suppress your vote.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Open Thread 9-30
Is anyone surprised that the Seattle Police are tracking people’s social media, including location? I mean Geofeedia seems like creepsville in general. Add to that people with guns and tasers and the ability to literally arrest you.
Poll Analysis: Clinton’s lead holds for now
Since my previous analysis, nearly 50 new state head-to-head polls have been released in the match-up between Sec. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. (Actually, many more state head-to-head polls have been released, but they are based on internet samples, so they don’t qualify by the rules for poll inclusion.) The polls were all taken before and just up to the first debate on Monday night. Subsequent analysis will reveal what effect, if any, the first debate may have had on the race.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 79,245 times and Trump wins 20,755 times (including the 1,915 ties). Clinton received (on average) 288 to Trump’s 250 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 79.2% probability of winning and Trump would have a 20.8% probability of winning. This is a tiny bump in probability (+0.3%) for Clinton relative to last week.
In Colorado, four new polls have been added that give a tiny bump to Trump. He went from a 48.8% chance last week to a 51.4% chance now. The state is, essentially, tied. The polling history, suggests a real change in Trump’s favor over the past three months.
New polls in Maine confirm what we already knew. Clinton would likely win now, but CD-1 would go to Clinton and CD-2 would go to Trump.
A new poll in Minnesota brings some certainty to that state. Clinton went from an 88% probability of taking the state last week to 95% this week.
We finally have our first polling for Nebraska’s congressional districts. NE-1 and 3 are solidly Trump. NE-2, which went for Obama in 2008, doesn’t look like it will split off from the rest of the state this election, with an 84% probability of going to Trump right now.
This week we gain three new North Carolina polls and lose two older ones. The three new polls favor Clinton, so the state has gone from 68.7% probability for Trump last week to a 52.2% chance for Clinton this week. North Carolina is tied.
With the loss of two, and the gain of three Ohio polls, Trump edges up from 90.3% to a 94.6% chance of taking the state.
Washington finally gets a new poll, and it is surprisingly close. The evidence suggests Clinton would only take the state now with an 87.7% probability. Even so, Trump has yet to win a Washington state poll.
Finally, Wisconsin loses two old polls and gains a new one. The race looks surprisingly close with Clinton dropping from an 98.4% to a 90.8% chance of taking the state. As with Washington, Trump has yet to win a Wisconsin poll. The race does seem to tighten up in recent weeks.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
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