HorsesAss.Org

The folks at Sound Politics had some fun teasing me for my moment of post-election despair, in which I said “I cannot imagine being convinced that this was a free and fair election.” (I still can’t.) They called me aluminum hat boy.

That’s fine, fun is fun.

But looky what happens the moment the vote count doesn’t go their way:

What all this says about the credibility of our election system, should the favorite daughter of the Democrat machine which produced the 10,000 magical mystery ballots be declared the winner on the basis of these magical ballots, is for another day.

(Stefan… it’s the WIFI networks that are controlling our brains!!!)

Anyway, here’s what happened. The righty bloggers have been making the same projections I have. Only much more smugly.

Based on the distribution among the various counties of the ballots left to be counted, and the current vote margins therein, we were all projecting Dino Rossi to win by a 3000-plus vote margin. Not a comfortable victory but more than the 2000 vote spread that would trigger an automatic recount.

Our math is sound, and assuming the margins hold up and the numbers posted to the elections page on the Secretary of State’s web site are accurate, our projections should be sound too. But there was always something that made me suspect that the “Ballots Left to Count” numbers were estimates only:

Figures in the “Approx Ballots Left to Count” column are estimates only.

I might have missed this disclaimer entirely, if it didn’t appear prominently beneath a bold, red, all caps warning: “IMPORTANT: READ THIS FIRST!”

Of course Stefan and the other aluminum-hat-wearing whiners at Sound Politics were well aware that these were “estimates only.” In fact there was a discussion earlier today about Benton County overestimating the number by 2500 during the 2000 election.

So here’s where we stand. After today’s count, Gregoire is leading Rossi by 158 votes, while the projections still suggest a 1430 vote Rossi victory, and an automatic recount. But… adjust the ballots-left-to-count by 5000 in the right counties, and Gregoire keeps her lead.

So there’s the glimmer of hope some of you were asking for.

From the political blog on the Spokesman Review!

Christine Gregoire’s strongest county, King County, will announce within half an hour that it had thousands more uncounted votes than expected. Elections officials there started today thinking they had up to 11,000 votes left to count.

If true, this would still not be enough to project to a Gregoire victory, but GOP chair Chris Vance says it all: “That changes the race dramatically… I was much more confident this morning.”

Since I’m getting a lot of traffic from the AP article on bloggers obsessively tracking the vote count in the governor’s race, I thought I better play my assigned role, and provide some updates throughout the day.

So here are the latest totals out of approximately 2.8 million votes cast:

Time     Rossi Lead   Projected Margin   Ballots Left
10:30am  1935         3417               41423
11:05am  1948         3419               41273
12:45am  1988         3405               38873
04:10pm  1974         3359               36573
05:00pm  -657         1365               27493
06:45pm  -158         1430               21666

Gregoire now holds a 158 vote lead after King County reported 17,000 votes this afternoon… a bit of a surprise considering King County had previously reported only 11,000 ballots left to count. However, based on the remaining distribution of uncounted ballots, Rossi is still projected the winner by 1430 votes.

For those D’s looking for a glimmer of hope… perhaps you should look elsewhere. It has been pointed out to me that I was wrong in saying Maria Cantwell picked up 1500 votes in her recount… she only picked up 306.

But it certainly looks like we’re headed for a recount.

Interesting piece in the Seattle P-I about Democrat Brian Weinstein’s victory in traditionally Republican Mercer Island. [Teachers key to Democrat Weinstein’s ousting Mercer Island state senator]

Voters “were very frustrated with Jim Horn,” Weinstein said. “People on the Eastside to a large extent move here because they want their kids to go to good schools. It wasn’t hard to convince them.”

This is how you win elections, and it fits very nicely into some thinking I’ve been doing on how Democrats can start taking back the country. We’re not wrong on the issues, we’re running the wrong candidates and the wrong kind of campaigns.

I’ve got a bit more thinking to do, but you can be sure I’ll share it with you and ask for your input once I get all the pieces in place.

I’m quoted in a couple of AP newswire stories today, including a nicely written piece by Olympia correspondent Rebecca Cook, that has gone national: “Bloggers obsessively track votes in governor’s race.” Also mentioned is local righty blog SoundPolitics.org, who really has been tracking the ballot count obsessively. (I guess I should also mention equally obsessive righty Timothy Goddard, since he was kind enough to mention me.)

You’ll also find me getting my digs into our friend Timmy, in Dave Ammons’ weekly column: “Analysis: Current rough patch won’t stop Eyman.”

It has been suggested to me that for a blog devoted to a reasoned discussion of politics and media criticism, I have occasionally gone over the top. Okay… a few people have actually accused me of being offensive.

For example, I have received a couple negative comments about my joyful, half-joking Canadian bashing. One reader wrote that he enjoyed my deconstruction of Collin Levey’s opinions, but that my “savage critique of her writing skills” was personal and uncalled for. And of course, there are those who squirm uncomfortably at my occasional — yet always prudent — use of profanity… like “ass“, “shit“, “bastard“, “fuck“, “prick“, and the semantically nuanced political epithet: “fucking prick“.

Personally, I have long believed that one of the strongest ways to express genuine outrage is to say something genuinely outrageous. Plus, swearing just plain makes me feel good. For example, take FuckTheSouth.com, one of the few pieces of post-election analysis that has actually made me laugh. Downright offensive? I guess so. Thought provoking, informative, political analysis? Yeah, it’s that too… and it’s also damn amusing.

I would hope that my regular readers understand the difference between seriousness and solemnity, and thus do not discount the content of this blog due to the literary style in which it is expressed. But I understand if not everyone shares my predilection for the profane. My goal has always been to entertain as well as inform — but I am doing neither if I’m turning off repeat visitors due to a few cuss words.

And so I ask you, gentle reader, for your input. Am I doing myself and my causes a disservice by expressing my opinions so, well… expressively? Or do you appreciate that, unlike the mainstream pundits, my word choice is as honest as my opinions?

I look forward to your comments and suggestions on how to make this a better blog.

Speaking of intellectual dishonesty on the Seattle Times op/ed pages, Collin Levey is up to her usual rhetorical mischief in her latest column: “Cheap drugs help no one if they’re not effective“.

Collin’s springboard is the recent recall of Indian-made generic HIV drugs, that had been intended for the AIDS-ravaged African market. She uses this unfortunate incident as an opportunity to criticize (largely Democratic) efforts to permit reimportation of less expensive drugs from Canada:

In the past two years, there has been a stampede on the part of governors and Washington, D.C., policymakers to authorize the reimportation of drugs from Canada and other nations.

All the problems of America’s expensive medications could be solved, this contingent said, by performing a simple end-run around the greedy juggernaut of profit-seeking drug companies. In this, as in Africa, the Bush administration’s insistence that it would not sanction the safety of drugs not vetted by the Food and Drug Administration has been met with sneers and accusations of callous disregard for human life.

It’s Collin who is sneering, and her callous disregard is for truthful debate. We’re talking about the reimportation from Canada of drugs manufactured in the United States. She may not be implying that Canadian pharmacies are passing off ineffective Indian generics… but she’s certainly hoping that’s the inference her readers will come away with.

The safety issue is a red herring, and Collin knows it.

That said, I wholeheartedly agree with Collin when she says “Canadian reimportation is an idiotic idea” — but probably not for the same reasons.

Can anybody seriously suggest that shipping drugs to Canada and then shipping them back to the US is an efficient, cost-effective distribution system? Canadian drugs are cheaper because the Canadian government negotiates with the pharmaceutical companies to obtain favorable pricing for its citizens… something the Bush administration explicitly prohibited Medicare from doing in the recent reform legislation.

There is no free market in prescription drugs; government health systems and large insurance companies negotiate best pricing the world over. Only in the US are the uninsured and underinsured left to fend for themselves. In effect, American consumers are subsidizing sales of lower priced drugs abroad.

What would happen if the US government paid more care to the welfare of its citizens than the welfare of pharmaceutical executives? No company can or should be forced to operate at a loss. If the US negotiated lower prices for its citizens, then the drug companies would be forced to negotiate higher prices in those markets that can afford it.

In lieu of a free market, we can at the very least strive for a fair one. Especially when it comes to a life-or-death product like prescription drugs.

With about 41,000 votes left to count, Rossi now leads Gregoire by 1920 votes, and current county margins project a 3400 vote victory. (For Rossi, that is.) That’s an improvement (for Gregoire) from yesterday, but the remaining votes would really have to break strongly in her favor to make up the gap.

You want hope? If Gregoire can pull within 2000 votes and trigger an automatic recount, anything can happen. In the senatorial race four years ago, Maria Cantwell picked up over 1500 votes in the recount.

Again, I understand the rules of the game, and the simple virtue of owning a newspaper grants you the right to use the op/ed pages to push the agenda of your choice. But I am constantly amazed at how ham-fisted the Blethens are in promoting their own narrow self-interest.

For the second time since the election, the Seattle Times has seen fit to editorialize against the estate tax, first the federal and now the state. Yeah… the war in Iraq, the economy, widespread electoral fraud… none of that is apparently as important to the owners of our state’s “paper of record” than assuring that the very wealthy pass on their estates undiminished.

In fact, I’m not sure the Blethens are really all that concerned with anybody else but the Blethens, as they constantly argue their case by raising the specter that an estate tax might force their heirs to sell out, ending decades of local ownership… by the Blethens.

And readers should be concerned because…?

I’m sure their rhetoric has a powerful emotional appeal — to the Blethens — but it ignores a couple realities. A) Any change in tax policy has winners and losers, and eliminating WA’s estate tax would either cut services or shift tax burden to those who can least afford it, making what is already the most regressive tax system in the nation even more unfair. B) Eliminating the estate tax would not ensure Blethen family control; the Times is already half-owned by Knight-Ridder, and a single disgruntled heir looking to diversify their portfolio (according to the Blethens, the Times is a money pit) could shift control of the paper.

(FYI, my former hometown newspaper, the Knight-Ridder owned Philadelphia Inquirer, is a highly respected and editorially independent publication that makes the Seattle Times look like, well… the Seattle Times. All you expatriates from NY, DC, LA and other big cities with real big city papers… you know what I’m talking about.)

But then, it was just an editorial so we don’t really expect intellectual honesty, or even respect for the law:

Now a group of heirs that has had to pay the state tax has sued. On Sept. 30, they argued their case before the Washington Supreme Court. That court has not yet ruled.

How strong their legal case is we do not know, but we hope they prevail.

Yes, the Blethens “hope they prevail”, regardless of how strong the legal case is. I guess that is what the Times means by “political courage”… justices who are willing to rule on policy rather than the law.

Oh… and one more thing. It’s called an “estate tax”, goddamnit, and no matter how many times you call it a “death tax” (eight times in six paragraphs) it is still an “estate tax.” (RCW Title 83)

Perhaps Knight-Ridder could lend the Times a fact checker.

How important are provisional ballots in determining the outcome of the governor’s race? The WA State Democratic Party is planning to sue the King County Elections Department to gain access to the list of voters whose ballots have been ruled invalid.

In response, state GOP chairman Chris Vance made one of his usual ill considered stupid comments:

“I’m now becoming very worried that the Democrats are going to try to turn this into Florida,”

I can’t blame Republicans for trying to run out the clock, but this habit of ridiculing Democrats for wanting to count every vote shows just how little the R’s respect the electorate. Turn this into another Florida? How fucking arrogant can you get? If votes are left uncounted, then this is another Florida.

Apparently, Republicans only respect the will of the voters when it agrees with them.

I encourage you all to read the excellent column in today’s Seattle Times by Rep. Fred Jarrett (R-Mercer Island): “Legislative progress possible if we ‘risk’ civil discourse“.

It may seem a bit odd for me — an admitted partisan rhetorical flame thrower — to be supporting a Republican legislator’s call for bipartisan civil discourse. But just because I understand my role, doesn’t mean I can’t dream of a better world.

A couple readers have complained that they don’t want to read my nightly updates on the projected winner in the governor’s race. So don’t look.

The count continues to trend in Rossi’s favor, predicting a 4400 vote victory.

For those who want a glimmer of hope, I could not verify that the “ballots left to count” numbers include provisional ballots, of which more than a third are from King County. If these break strongly in Gregoire’s favor, she still has a shot.

As I predicted yesterday, Tim Eyman’s latest initiative garnered little media attention… a single, obligatory AP newswire story that appeared last night in the online edition of the P-I, and was excerpted in today’s Olympian. Quite a step down from the media circus that accompanied the introduction of I-892 last March.

Media fatigue has steadily grown for the-boy-who-cried-tax-revolt, and it seems likely Tim’s performance audits initiative will continue to draw a collective yawn from reporters and voters alike.

It’s not that performance audits are necessarily a bad idea (I’ll reserve comment on the merits of Tim’s initiative until I read the specific language.) It’s just that it’s not a particularly controversial idea, and controversy, after all, has long been Tim’s currency in the public debate. D’s and R’s have repeatedly passed competing performance audit bills through the state House and Senate, and now that the D’s control both houses of the legislature, it seems likely the new governor will have an opportunity to sign something into law.

Of course, if that happens, Timmy will claim credit for forcing their hand. Don’t you believe it.

Only the most politically unobservant legislators are still cowed by Tim’s threats of voter backlash, or impressed by his frenetically maintained celebrity. Gone are the days when Tim can qualify an initiative for the ballot on the strength of $200 contributions from kitchen-table conservatives. And his attempts to feebly display grassroots support have been pathetic — the last few times he emailed his 3600-weak list to ask them to show their passion by joining him at an event, you could count the turnout on one hand.

Sure, Tim may yet find some special-interest sugar daddy to bankroll another for-profit initiative… though his talk of pushing slot machines again naively assumes his mini-casino buddies are bigger chumps than their customers. And even a politically marginalized Eyman will maintain a degree of media appeal in a state inordinately blessed with boring politicians. So I’m not suggesting we let down our guard and relax our rather effective efforts at refuting his lies.

But as an initiative sponsor, Tim’s track record over the past two years speaks for itself.

To call Tim a paper tiger would be to exaggerate the dangers of paper cuts.

Yes, there’s a big chunk of ballots yet to count in pro-Gregoire King County, and yes the provisional ballots could still buck the trend… but if current margins hold up, my spreadsheet projects Rossi to win by 3091 votes. This is the exact same number projected by the folks at conservative SoundPolitics.org, so I’m guessing my math checks out.

Man that sucks.

For me, I’m guessing that the biggest news story in tomorrow’s papers will be the lack thereof. Specifically, the relative absence of Tim Eyman from the headlines.

In an election night effort to draw attention away from his dismal failure with Initiative 892, Tim announced that he would be filing a new “performance audits” initiative on Nov. 9 (today). In the past, such events have drawn TV cameras and a gaggle of reporters.

This time… not so much.

In fact, unless it’s a real s-l-o-w news day, Tim might not make the morning newspapers at all.

There are a couple of reasons for the media’s sudden lack of interest in all things Timmy. First, this is definitely a none-event. You can’t file an “Initiative to the People” until January, so any trip to the Secretary of State’s office would be an obvious hoax.

Second… well… Tim is increasingly… irrelevant.

In the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world of political news coverage, Tim hasn’t really done much lately.

Two years in a row, his “sure-fire”, “I’ve never seen supporters so excited” initiatives have failed to even qualify for the ballot. And while the million dollars of gambling industry money behind I-892 firmly established Tim as a professional initiative sponsor, its embarrassing showing at the polls only further eroded his reputation as a successful one.

With over sixty initiatives filed every year, only the best financed or truly outrageous initiatives manage to garner much news coverage — and Tim’s “performance audits” initiative promises to be neither. Oh Tim’s political circus will continue to get more than its fair share of headlines, but he’s gradually becoming more of a side-show freak than a big top performer.

Don’t get me wrong; I’m not ready to write Tim’s political obituary. But I’m looking forward to an Eyman-free 2005 November election.