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In an IRV system, voters rank the candidates. If no candidate receives a majority of votes, the bottom candidate is eliminated, and those who voted for him have their second choice counted. This continues until somebody receives a true majority.

Longtime readers may be familiar with my infatuation with IRV, which I see as an opportunity for voters to vote for the candidate they like best, rather than for the lesser evil they think has the best chance of winning. And given a choice between our new, stupid-ass “top two” primary, and eliminating the primary entirely and going to an IRV general election… I much prefer the latter.

HB 1447 would simply authorize local governments to use IRV for local elections. Spokane and Tacoma would have to amend their city charters. Vancouver has already done so.

The bill’s sponsor, Rep. Jim Moeller (D-Vancouver) also makes the following timely observation:

Moeller said he thinks the method would have made the winner in the recent gubernatorial election “crystal clear.”

While an undisputed election might have been bad for us bloggers, I’m pretty sure it would have been good for the rest of Washington’s citizens.

Go to IRVWA.org for more information on efforts to implement IRVs in Washington.

Geov writes, well… glowingly about Tim Eyman’s latest products, I-905 (the “Hands Off Tim’s Business” initiative) and I-900 (which would finally enact performance audits… six months after they’re enacted by the Legislature.)

Suspicious as I am of Eyman’s intentions, I cannot for the life of me think of a reason this would be a bad thing.

You’ve got my phone number, Geov… I wish you would have asked me.

I could have told you that by automatically requiring a referendum on legislation that alters the initiative process, I-905 is blatantly unconstitutional. And I could have explained how I-900 would quadruple the auditor’s staff, add $90 million to the budget, and take as long as 12 years to implement. I could have also explained the realpolitik of Timmy’s flagging initiative prowess.

After a lackluster 2004, during which he backed a failed gambling measure that was far afield from his usual turf, Eyman will in all likelihood have two initiatives on the ballot in 2005.

Not a snowball’s chance.

In his absolute, best-case, fundraising scenario, Timmy struggles to get one initiative on the ballot, let alone two. In mentioning the gambling measure, which cost $600,000 of industry money to buy the signatures, Geov forgets Eyman’s last two “grassroots” petition drive failures: I-807 and I-864. Indeed, Tim hasn’t qualified one of his own initiatives for the ballot since 2002.

If I-864’s 25% property tax cut couldn’t excite his base, I wonder how the wonkish (and redundant) I-900 can break his two-year drought? As to I-905, I stand by my original analysis: it’s just a publicity stunt. Tim knows he can’t run two simultaneous signature drives without a sugar daddy, and he’s already financially committed to I-900. (He even paid for a gorilla graphic.)

And finally Geov, don’t take it personally, but your closer really hits a sore spot:

But if this initiative came from anyone else, it would be seen as a good government reform. Instead, because it’s Eyman, politicians and editorial boards have been suspicious. But I-900 is what it is

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Dear Dino Rossi,

No matter how many times you declare victory, you’re still a loser.

Love,

Carl Ballard

PS Since you got the judge you were hoping for, and he still said your idea to have a re-vote was bat-shit-insane, do you think now that maybe just maybe you should give up?

And while we’re on the subject, I also direct you to Neil Modie’s report in today’s Seattle PI on Rossi’s press conference. I particularly enjoyed the opening paragraph:

Dino Rossi, stumbling over an earlier vow to refuse to become governor by court decree, suggested yesterday that he might do so — but minutes later said he wouldn’t.

Yup. Of course it’s a total fantasy, but that’s exactly the type of decisive leadership we’d expect from a “Governor” Rossi, huh?

(Note to Mary Lane: next time you let Rossi hold a live press conference… don’t.)

To sum it up quickly, the Snark’s “definitive analysis” proves definitely wanting.

By Sharkansky’s own admissions, he struggled to create a file that he believed would match what King worked with to reconcile their data. But his struggle was futile from the start, which he must have known: King didn’t reconcile their data at the precinct level, they did it voter by voter, pollbook line by pollbook line. How can you claim you’ve done the definitive analysis, when you don’t even have the right file defined? We don’t think you can.

Sounds reminiscent of my statistical pissing match with Stefan over his claim that a several hundred vote victory by Gregoire in the hand recount, would still leave Rossi the statistical winner, based on plotting the first two counts. As we say in the software biz: garbage in, garbage out.

Carla and TJ hope “ignorance is the excuse” for Snark’s own irregularities, but I’m not so charitable. I think Snark’s a smart guy. And thus he knows he’s misleading his readers.

I look forward to reading their follow-up.

I base this statement on the following theses: A) if Rossi can’t prove these votes went to Gregoire, they’ll have no impact on his contest, B) there really weren’t all that many felons voting illegally, and C) who the hell cares?

My guess is the vast majority of felons who voted illegally did so unwittingly… after all, why risk going back to jail just to cast a ballot? Plus, many of these disenfranchised felons could have had their voting rights restored if only they went through the confusing process of filing the paperwork.

Yes, I know… the law is the law, and ignorance of it is no excuse. But the same can be said of the contest statute, which clearly states that Rossi must show that illegal votes went to Gregoire in order to set aside the election, a burden of proof his lawyers have argued they cannot meet. Indeed, of the six felons who have revealed their ballots in press accounts I’ve seen, five voted for Rossi, and one for Bennett.

Republicans claim that over 400 convicted felons voted illegally statewide, though the number is probably much smaller. For example, of the 64 names provided to Snohomish County elections officials by the BIAW, only 18 have been found to have voted illegally. And GOP efforts to use the felon vote as evidence of incompetence on the part of county officials ignores the fact that tracking these felons is impossible without a central, statewide database.

But while we argue over how many felons voted, who they voted for, and who is to blame, we fail to ask ourselves the most important question: So what? As The New York Times points out in a plainly titled editorial today (“Why Felons Deserve the Right to Vote“), none other than the American Correctional Association (ACA) has called for ending the practice of withholding voting rights from parolees and people who have completed their prison terms.

These laws serve no correctional purpose – and may actually contribute to recidivism by keeping ex-offenders and their families disengaged from the civic mainstream. This notion is clearly supported by data showing that former offenders who vote are less likely to return to jail. This lesson has long since been absorbed by democracies abroad, some valuing the franchise so much that they take ballot boxes right to the prisons.

The GOP’s emphasis on the felon vote has always been more of a moralistic PR argument than a legal one… a cynical attempt to insinuate that felons overwhelmingly vote for Democrats. That they have absolutely no evidence to back up their thesis (indeed, the anecdotal evidence suggests the contrary), does not seem to dissuade them from contending that these votes alone are enough to call the election results into question.

But that’s not the point.

According to the ACLU, 3.7 percent of otherwise eligible Washington voters are disqualified due to felony convictions, roughly twice the national average. And this policy of disenfranchisement disproportionately impacts minorities, with an estimated 25% of black males disqualified.

And for what?

State Sen. Pam Roach proposes routinely purging the voter rolls in an attempt to make it more difficult for felons to vote. But this would surely disenfranchise tens of thousands of eligible voters, if through nothing but inconvenience alone.

Rather than making it more difficult for everybody to vote, it is time to follow the advice of the ACA and ACLU and others, and automatically restore voting rights to felons upon their release from prison. If we want these people to productively contribute to our Democracy, we need to make them part of it.

I’m not going to ask for a recount or a replay or a re-anything… I accept the decision of the officials as final. Even though the Eagles won the first 5:05 minutes of the game, and were tied until 1:16 minutes into the 4th quarter, I understand that only the final score counts.

There is little doubt that if we closely examine the video tapes, we will find that the officials made many mistakes… so many perhaps, that these “irregularities” may have changed the outcome of the game. But I refuse to let my deep disappointment cloud my reason, and despite the fact that I continue to believe that Donovan McNabb is the better quarterback, I accept that Tom Brady has legitimately won the Super Bowl.

And so with heavy heart I congratulate the Patriots, move on, and look forward to the next election season.

To show you how silly it all is, I’m going to turn from political punditry and exercise a bit of sports punditry. Anybody can do it, so why not me?

Goldy’s 5 Keys to the Superbowl

1. Special teams – It takes a really special team to win the Super Bowl.

2. Score in the “red zone” – Most teams just score in the end zone; if you can score in the red zone, you shorten the field by twenty yards.

3. Turnovers – A little known factor in New England’s victory over Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game was when Ben Roethlisberger severely burnt his throwing hand eating a hot apple turnover during the pre-game meal. Both Donovan McNabb and Tom Brady must be disciplined, and stick to cold cuts.

4. Control the clock – The team that controls the clock can pretty much end the game the second they’re ahead.

And finally, the “Key to the Superbowl” most overlooked by sports pundits:

5. Score more points than the other team – Need I say more?

And my bold, partisan prediction? Eagles 27, Patriots 17.

(Fly Eagles, Fly)

Bridges said that at least at this point in the case, it is “sufficient to state generally” that there are enough illegal votes to cast doubt on the true outcome of the election.

But the judge cited a 1912 state Supreme Court case often mentioned by Democrats. In that case, the court found that if it is unknown which candidate received an illegal vote, “it must be treated as a legitimate vote.”

Bridges also said it “may be problematical for petitioners to ultimately prevail on a theory or a cause of illegal votes.”

Not having watched the hearing myself, and not having a transcript available, I asked Lawyer X for his interpretation, and what this meant for the Democrats.

It was a substantial victory and he did so rule. He referred to Foulkes a number of times during the decisions in terms of whether their allegations stated a cause for contest but he viewed his ability to set aside an election as limited to circumstances in which Rossi first proved that Rossi won the vote.

I think what a lot of people are missing is the statutory distinction between the grounds for proceeding with an election contest, and the grounds for setting one aside. The statute clearly states that to bring a contest it is merely sufficient to show that there were enough illegal votes to have changed the outcome. But the statute is equally clear that a higher standard must be reached in order to set aside an election: it must appear that the irregularities actually changed the outcome.

According to The News Tribune, Judge Bridges specifically said “I’m not ruling on burden of proof,” though it certainly sounds to me like he’s leaning towards a narrow interpretation of the statutory standard. But what seems absolutely clear is that his rulings cannot be understood at this time as supporting the Republican position that they need merely prove the margin of error is greater than the margin of victory in order to prevail.

The blogosphere, the MSM, and even the Republican and Democratic attorneys are also arguing over the practical result of Judge Bridges’ ruling that he did not have the power to order a new election. Democrats contend this means the only remedy available would be to declare Rossi the winner, while Republicans say the judge could still set aside the election, and leave it to the Legislature to order a special election. Judge Bridges seemed to interpret the state Constitution as saying the soonest a special election could be held is November of 2006, leaving Lt. Gov. Brad Owen to serve in the meanwhile.

This should be a huge PR blow to Rossi’s disingenuous “re-vote” campaign, as the judge clearly stated that he could not order a new election. What seems to have gone over everybody’s heads is what this ruling means in terms of the precedent set by Foulkes v. Hays.

In Foulkes, the Supreme Court cited its “general equity jurisdiction” in upholding the lower court’s decision to order a new election:

Where appropriate, these necessary and proper powers would include the power to order a new election where no other remedy would adequately correct distortions in election results caused by fraud or neglect.

The Republicans have heavily relied on Foulkes to provide the precedent for setting aside an election on the basis of irregularities alone, but in ruling that he does not have the power to order a new election, Judge Bridges clearly indicates that, at least on this one major point, Foulkes does not apply. Whether this lack of general equity jurisdiction is limited only to this remedy (due to constitutional restrictions on when gubernatorial elections can be held), or more broadly to the burden proof, remains to be seen. But his comment that it may be “problematic” for Rossi to prevail, suggests the latter.

Indeed, Judge Bridges seems to keenly grasp that the Legislature has pragmatically set a very high bar for overturning elections.

He said it is clear that a lot more election contests have been rejected than have succeeded because there are well-accepted reasons why elections should not be overturned.

“Do we as voters and as constituents and candidates want to engage in what one judge referred to as seasons of discontent commencing the moment after the polls closed on election day?” Bridges asked.

As I have previously suggested, the answer is implicit in our election statutes, which clearly prefer finality over certainty.

Listening to Rossi spokes-shill Mary Lane, you’d think Republicans were the big winners yesterday. But just like in the election, where winning two out of three means nothing when it’s the third count that’s final, it doesn’t matter how many rulings went the GOP’s way yesterday, when the most important one apparently went to the Democrats. If the judge subscribes to the Democrats’ argument that the statute must be narrowly interpreted, then Rossi’s burden of proof is more than just “problematic”… it is nearly impossible given the types of irregularities uncovered thus far.

My guess is, if either party is going to appeal the judge’s rulings, it’s the Republicans.

I’m flying at 35,000 feet, halfway between Seattle and Philadelphia, but before takeoff, Andrew was kind enough to give me a lunch-break update from the Chelan County Courthouse. Apparently, Judge Bridges ordered the turkey club sandwich, but picked out the tomato. The Secretary of State’s lead attorney, Thomas Ahearn, had the chicken caesar salad, as did the Democrats’ Jenny Durkan (only with the dressing on the side.) Meanwhile the Republican legal team disappeared into a private conference room, only to emerge 30 minutes later, slightly disheveled and stinking of gin.

And oh yeah… the judge dismissed the 39 county auditors as defendants, while denying the Democrats’ motions on venue and jurisdiction.

Yawn.

I suppose it’s possible I’ll get to Philly, go online, and discover something dramatic happened. But I doubt it. Besides, it’s really all just foreplay until we get to the Supreme Court. (Not that I’m dissing foreplay.)

Speaking of which, I’m sure the cunning linguists over on the right-wing blogs have been wagging their tongues for hours now about Rossi’s stunning legal victory… whatever the ruling. But despite their best efforts to seduce voters with promises of a rock solid election, passion continues to steadily wane for their flaccid “re-vote” campaign.

[Editor’s note: No, I’m not drunk… I’ve had nothing but tea and water. I’m just bored. Really, really, really bored.]

In fact, this whole election contest has been kind of a tease, hasn’t it? We have hundreds of felons voting for Rossi. Hundreds more unverified provisional ballots most of which have now been verified. Military personnel denied the vote even though ballots were mailed out on time, and returned in numbers matching the general public.

But the biggest tease of all, is the allegation that they have irrefutable proof of a stolen election, when all they’ve really uncovered are the types and quantities of errors we expect to see in any election of 3 million ballots cast.

So that’s my post ruling analysis. Let’s see how it holds up once I land and see the actual rulings for myself….

Post flight analysis:

Okay. I’ll preface my postscript by reiterating that none of this really matters, because the final ruling will be made by the Supremes.

But… if this ruling did matter… then it wouldn’t be a very a good day for Dino Rossi. I think.

I haven’t seen the transcript, but according to David Postman in The Seattle Times, Judge Bridges’s ruling may have given a fatal blow to the Republican case:

But he ruled that Republicans must show any illegal votes were cast in favor of Gregoire, and not Republican candidate Dino Rossi. There would have to be enough illegal Gregoire votes to erase her 129-vote victory margin.

Bridges said that if Republicans did prove their case, he would not order a new election for governor as they want him to do. Rossi has said that was the only remedy he would accept.

Democrats had argued the judge didn’t have that power, and Bridges agreed. He said state law and the state constitution do not give him the power to order a new vote, which he called “special relief.”

Remember what I wrote about the court lacking “general equity jurisdiction” in an election contest for an executive office? Both these rulings (assuming this was the ruling) seem to support this interpretation. Essentially, the judge has said that he would hold the contest to the narrow confines of the statute. That is exactly what the Democrats wanted.

Anyway, I’m continuing to wade through the available reports, and will post a more detailed analysis tomorrow.

In fact, I’m heading off to Philadelphia today to join my family in watching our beloved Eagles win their first championship in my lifetime. Hoagies, soft pretzels, Tastykakes and Donovan McNabb. What a Sunday.

As to that other event, well, lawyers are still blabbing as I’m heading out the door. Whatever happens, good or bad, just remember that the election contest will ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court, so don’t get too excited.

While I’m in the air, I’ve given Andrew Villeneuve the honor of being HorsesAss.org’s first guest blogger. You may be familiar with his other work at Permanent Defense, NW Progressive Institute, and the new and incredibly useful Pacific NW Portal. If there is important news, Andrew will post it here, and then I’ll comment on it later tonight.

We’re happy and highly supportive of the bill, particularly after being out front

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Iraq in 2005? No… that was a Vietnam in 1967, as reported nearly 40 years ago by the New York Times. (Thanks to the folks at Daily Kos for digging up this gem.)

The Bush administration didn’t settle on its reason for invading Iraq until well after the invasion. First it was Saddam’s close connection to Osama and 9/11 (there was no connection.) Then it was the imminent threat of “weapons of mass destruction” (we never found any.) Eventually, establishing democracy became the rhetorical centerpiece of Bush’s Iraq policy.

To argue that Bush didn’t lie to the nation and the world in selling this war, requires believing that our intelligence services were criminally incompetent, and the administration incoherent at best. Thousands of American soldiers and innocent Iraqis have died as a result.

Let’s hope that the Iraqi democracy fares better than Vietnam’s, and that some lasting good can come out of the death and destruction our tax dollars have reigned down on the region.

Oh well. Let’s just use this as an opportunity to continue our discussion of his dumb-ass, dishonest Social Security proposal. (I’m sorry, does that sound like I’m prejudging it?) This from the New York Times:

Mr. Bush skirted the issue of paying for the establishment of the accounts. That process, by the White House’s calculation, would require more than $750 billion in additional government borrowing between now and 2015, and trillions of dollars of additional borrowing in the subsequent decade once the system is fully up and running, analysts said.

By the way, I heard David Brooks talking on Nightline last night, saying that Republicans support privatization because they believe that by forcing more Americans to invest in the stock market, they will create more Republicans. That’s sound economic policy, huh?

UPDATE:
And while we’re at it, let’s bring Paul Krugman back into the discussion:

The Social Security projections that say the trust fund will be exhausted by 2042 assume that economic growth will slow as baby boomers leave the work force. The actuaries predict that economic growth, which averaged 3.4 percent per year over the past 75 years, will average only 1.9 percent over the next 75 years.

In the long run, profits grow at the same rate as the economy. So to get that 6.5 percent rate of return, stock prices would have to keep rising faster than profits, decade after decade.

Krugman explains that for stocks to yield the 6.5 percent rate of return projected by the privateers, the average price-earnings ratio would have to rise to over 100 by 2060. (The historic average is 14, today it’s about 20.) This creates a Catch-22:

They can rescue their happy vision for stock returns by claiming that the Social Security actuaries are vastly underestimating future economic growth. But in that case, we don’t need to worry about Social Security’s future: If the economy grows fast enough to generate a rate of return that makes privatization work, it will also yield a bonanza of payroll tax revenue that will keep the current system sound for generations to come.

Alternatively, privatizers can unhappily admit that future stock returns will be much lower than they have been claiming. But without those high returns, the arithmetic of their schemes collapses.

It really is that stark: Any growth projection that would permit the stock returns the privatizers need to make their schemes work would put Social Security solidly in the black.

Man… Bushies must hate Krugman.