HorsesAss.Org

The Seattle P-I has a short report on what to expect from the dueling legal teams in Dino Rossi’s contest of the gubernatorial election: “Strategies in governor’s contest now clearer.” Actually, I think the strategies have been clear for some time, but the article does a nice job of summarizing the issues, and concluding that the GOP’s hopes may hinge on whether Judge Bridges accepts their “proportional analysis” argument.

One possible line of attack they have sketched out is what Lane calls proportional analysis. The idea is this: If Precinct A cast 60 percent of its votes for Gregoire and 40 percent for Rossi, but it turns out that 10 votes from there were illegal, the court can assume that six of those votes were for Gregoire and four for Rossi and deduct those amounts from their respective totals.

Given that most of the 1,000-plus supposed illegal votes the GOP has rounded up so far came from King County, where Gregoire beat Rossi by 58 percent to 40 percent (amounting to a 155,000-vote difference), that strategy holds lots of appeal for the Republicans. And that’s one reason they’re trying to dig up as many illegal votes as they can.

Personally, I could see a court accepting such an approach if the number of disputed ballots were massive compared to the margin of victory. For example, if there were 10,000 illegal votes in heavily Democratic King County (and nothing to offset them in Republican strongholds) I could understand a court ruling that a 129-vote margin just can’t hold up to scrutiny.

I could even understand the court applying proportional analysis to a much smaller number, if there was clear evidence of that these votes were the result of organized fraud or misconduct.

But such statistical analyses become much less useful the smaller the sample data set, and I just can’t imagine the court accepting such an approach with the number of illegal votes reported thus far. It would be inaccurate to proportion votes based on countywide margins, as different precincts produce dramatically different results. Yet when you deconstruct the analysis to the precinct level, it is statistically meaningless to proportion one or two votes per precinct.

Of course the Republican’s case has always been more of an emotional appeal than a legal one, hoping that public outrage might undermine Gregoire if not sway the courts. But their pleadings are increasingly being met with cynicism in the court of public opinion as well, with a recent Elway Poll showing that 63 percent of voters now say we should accept the results of the election and move on, and 74 percent agreeing that there is always going to be some error.

And move on we shall. Today, Governor Gregoire will introduce the first draft of her budget proposal, which I fully expect to include about $500 million in tax and fee increases, along with over a billion dollars in cuts and other savings. Rather than being cowed by Republican anger over the election, she appears to be reacting to the pragmatic reality that maintaining government services at the level taxpayers clearly demand, requires raising revenues commensurate with those demands.

Now if only we can get her to consider structural changes that will eliminate these shortfalls in the future, instead of just the stopgap measures we’re likely to see in the current budget.

UPDATE:
Well, it looks like I overestimated the tax increases. Gregoire has proposed a little over $200 million, coming from a $0.20 per pack hike in the cigarette tax, and reimposing the estate tax on non-farm estates worth over $2 million. More on the budget later.

Back on November 2, the gubernatorial election was far from my major concern.

I spent much of election day following the exit poll leaks, buoyed by what appeared to be record voter turnout nationwide and stronger than expected support for John Kerry in several key states. But as the polls started closing, reality set it — Ohio, which seemed certain to break Bush’s back, inexplicably broke Kerry’s instead. I never went downtown to the big Democratic “victory” party, instead choosing to watch the defeat unfold at home. That night, alone in my despair I blogged:

I never accepted the legitimacy of W’s first administration and I will never accept the legitimacy of his second. At this moment, I cannot imagine being convinced that this was a free and fair election. Quite simply, I fear for our democracy.

To which HA received its first mention from the kind folks over at (un)Sound Politics; a short, smug, snide, and perhaps deserved dig: “Yeah, whatever, aluminum hat boy.”

We had no history at that point, and I thought Stefan could have shown a bit more empathy, allowing me a brief moment to sit political shiva. But I recognized his comment as the kind of sarcastic cut I might make, and so I took it in stride, and replied in a self-deprecating manner in Stefan’s comment thread. (At that point, I still believed him to be a reasonable person with whom one could have a reasonable and lively — if somewhat insulting — debate.)

As to Ohio? Well, I’ve barely followed it, and have hardly mentioned it here since… partly because I prefer to make accusations of election fraud based on hard facts, and partly because I got sucked into covering events back home.

Ironically, it turned out to be Stefan who sported a chronic case of helmut-hair from his mind-control-ray-blocking headwear.

Even before the election, the (u)SP folks were steeling themselves for defeat, bandying about the reassuring notion that the Washington state GOP’s dismal history at the polls was more a result of “distributed vote fraud” than actual rejection by the electorate. And from the very first prolonged vote count, Stefan and his fellow travelers quickly established themselves as the gubernatorial election’s leading conspiracy theorists.

From the 10,000 “mystery” absentee ballots that screwed up Stefan’s spreadsheet during the first count, to the military ballot hoo-hah, to enhanced ballots, to provisionals, dead people and felons, die-hard Rossi supporters have been snapping up (u)SP’s conspiracies like they were iPods. Meanwhile, I confidently sat back and waited for each new theory to be debunked — as they all have been — secure in the knowledge that most conspiracy theories remain just that.

See, the main problem with your run-of-the-mill conspiracy theory is that it proposes an actual conspiracy… an exercise that typically proves to be considerably less daunting in theory than in practice. Conspiracies tend to be logistical nightmares. They require opportunity, planning, execution, and absolute secrecy. And above all, they require motive.

I’m not talking about the institutional motive of one party wanting to win an election over another… I’m talking about the individual conspirators, whose motives must be strong enough to balance the inevitable consequences of getting caught. For example, why would Dean Logan, a career civil servant, risk a lengthy prison sentence on behalf of Christine Gregoire? All ethical and moral considerations aside, we can assume that Logan would not participate in such a conspiracy unless the risk was small, the benefit large, and the objective achievable.

It is on that last point that I laugh off any suggestion that the improperly scanned provisional ballots are evidence of some organized vote fraud conspiracy, because it overwhelmingly fails the “why the fuck?” test, as in: “Why the fuck would you only stuff 660 ballots?”

Nobody expected this election to be anywhere near this close. If Gregoire had won by only 30,000 votes, surprised political pundits would have painted this a moral victory for Rossi and the Republicans, instantly marking Gregoire as vulnerable in 2008. But 129 votes? Get real.

Why bother risking the scandal of stuffing 400 or 600 or even 900 ballots when such numbers would have no reasonable expectation of impacting the election? Such a piddling conspiracy would be absolutely pointless without the hindsight we now have as to the extraordinary closeness of the actual results. And if anything, the Democrats were overconfident about the governor’s race.

Elections simply aren’t this close. Thus any conspiracy at the polls on election day would have to be massive to have any hope of impacting the outcome of a statewide election. Anything less would be just plain silly. I’m not absolutely precluding the possibility that somebody might be stupid enough to risk going to jail for stuffing a couple hundred votes in an election Gregoire expected to win by over 100,000… but it just doesn’t seem likely, does it?

So if you’re looking for corruption, it’s going to have to be of the official variety, and it would have had to occur post-election, during the recounts, by canvassing workers, election officials, even the canvassing board itself. And in the context of the recounts, people were looking for official corruption… and very carefully. Say what you want about the hand recount, but there is no arguing that it was an extraordinarily transparent operation, with bipartisan observers watching and participating in every detail. If Dean Logan managed to steal this election during the hand recount, without getting caught, then you’ve got to wonder what a fucking genius like Dean is doing in such a shit-ass job like his? A criminal mastermind like that should be selling tanker planes for Boeing… or working for Karl Rove… not sitting before the King County Council subjecting himself to misleading grandstanding from the likes of Raymond Shaw Reagan Dunn.

Whatever.

The point is, conspiracies are a helluva lot easier to theorize than they are to execute (or disprove;) to borrow a phrase from President Bush, they’re “hard work.” And that’s ignoring the fact that most people — even Democrats — are basically honest… and that even the most dishonest folk are reluctant to so blatantly break the law knowing that each and every one of their actions would be subjected to such microscopic scrutiny.

So my confidence that official corruption is the least likely explanation for the outcome of this election is not based on a naive trust in public officials, but rather on the simple logic that anybody who would be stupid enough to have engaged in such a conspiracy under these circumstances would have to be too stupid to have gotten away with it. If fraud occurred, the evidence is there, and you can be damn sure Rossi’s attorneys and the BIAW would have discovered it by now.

Were mistakes made during this election? Absolutely! Were election officials sometimes not as forthright as they could have been? Perhaps… but then, if I was in their shoes I might have been just as cautious.

If Rossi can prove that irregularities and illegal votes cost him the election, then the results will be set aside. But he has absolutely no evidence of organized fraud or corruption, and for people like EFF President Bob Williams to be squawking on talk radio that Dean Logan is a “crook” who should be jailed, is downright inexcusable.

The scary part is, that despite all the logical inconsistencies, and despite the months of sleuthing that has failed to turn up a single shred of evidence of official corruption, there are still people that are absolutely convinced that Democrats, actively, intentionally, and illegally stole this election. And to them I say: “Yeah, whatever, aluminum hat boy.”

If it’s Friday, it must be time for another open thread. Please scoop your poop.

During a floor debate Tuesday night on a state House bill endorsing stem cell research, several Republican opponents compared such research to the Holocaust, including Rep. Glenn Anderson (R-Fall City):

Life sciences, biotech research – it sounds warm, sounds progressive. The potential is there, we hope, we’re betting on it…. But the cold look of history really does require sobriety. Sixty years ago in Nazi Germany, it was state policy in order to perfect humanity it would be required to destroy humanity. And the medical experiments at Auschwitz were carried out for that explicit purpose. We all say no, that’s not us, that would never happen, that’s not why we’re doing this.

Um… yeah, Glenn. Guess there aren’t too many Jews in Fall City.

Anderson refused to apologize, so today state House Minority Leader Bruce Chandler (R-Granger) apologized for him:

“The references made to the Holocaust were regarded by some, understandably, as insensitive and inappropriate,” Chandler, R-Granger, said on the House floor.
…
Chandler said he’d spoken with Jewish community leaders about the stem-cell debate. “I offer my apologies to them and to people who have committed their lives to using science to improve humanity.”

FYI, the bill passed 59-36.

Michael Hood of blatherWatch has an interesting piece today about King County Councilwoman Julia Patterson (D-SeaTac) diving headlong into the lion’s den of right-wing talk radio. She defended KC Elections for an hour yesterday on the John Carlson Show, correctly admonishing John and his fellow travelers for demanding KC prove a negative. She was then mugged in absentia on Kirby Wilbur this morning, who played clips from the Carlson interview, teasing listeners with claims that Patterson had accused President Bush of eating children. (Choked on a pretzel, my ass.)

Michael goes on to “salute Julia Patterson for leaping into the [right-wing] talk radio breach,” where few liberal Seattle politicians dare to tread. He argues that politicians shouldn’t avoid the KVI/KTTH crowd, even if it means occasionally getting the rhetorical snot beaten out of them.

Ignoring talk radio is a political mistake. It has, with the help of blogs, led the debate in the unrest around the gubernatorial election and stoking the rural/exurban rage machine roaring out of control in the 3-county area.

Liberal denial of conservative talk-radio dates back to when it was considered insignificant and peripheral by local media and politicians. It was wishful thinking–I hope by now that myth is exploded–it’s a powerful political tool of the Republican party.

I can’t agree more, and I’d like to add that any politician who can’t hold his own against the likes of John and Kirby and Dori, really has no business running for office.

Personally, while I can’t stand listening to it, I love doing right-wing talk radio, especially when they let me take questions from callers. It’s challenging and fun, kind of like the passionate and informative threads we sometimes get on HA. Contrast that to one of my appearances on Dave Ross during the peak of the Horse’s Ass Initiative hoo-hah, when we couldn’t get a single caller to disagree with me. Booooring!

Besides, it’s kind of a can’t-lose situation. It’s not like a liberal politician or pundit has much of a chance of changing the minds of many KVI listeners… but as long as we’re there refuting the lies, we make it harder for the talking heads to whip the fomentation any foamier. Perhaps my last appearance on John Carlson — where I wonkishly stepped John through the polling place reconciliation process — wasn’t particularly exciting radio. But at least for half an hour, I was controlling the terms of the debate, not him.

In addition to taking on right-wing talk radio, we also need to do a better job of establishing alternative, liberal programming. Us bloggers on both sides of the political spectrum have an over-inflated sense of self-importance — talk radio is still dominating public opinion, not us. As much as I welcome the success of Air America and Ed Schultz on KPTK-1090, they need to start doing some local programming, developing liberal talent a little less sober, and far edgier than Dave Ross.

I volunteer for the 6am to 9am slot.

And speaking of those bastards at the BIAW, I just thought I’d repeat a few tidbits about their newly purchased Supreme Court Justice, Jim Johnson:

• While in private practice, served as a lawyer representing the BIAW.
• Received by far the most campaign contributions of any justice from the BIAW and its affiliates, including at least $146,500 in cash donations to 2004 campaign.
• Received in-kind donations of at least $25,555 from the BIAW and its affiliates in 2004.
• At least one-third of all donations he received in 2004 came from the BIAW and affiliates.
• During unsuccessful 2002 campaign, Johnson received at least $124,500 in cash, and $51,327 in in-kind services, from BIAW and affiliates — about 44 percent of all money he raised.
• Received more than $22,000 in in-kind donations from the Washington State Republican Party in 2002.
• Received at least $450 each to 2002 campaign from Tom McCabe, a BIAW vice president, and his wife.

In fact, I’d guess a close examination of Johnson’s financial disclosure reports would probably show that in addition to direct contributions, Johnson received substantial indirect contributions from the BIAW and their associates.

Hmm… can anybody say recusal?

Building Industry Association of Washington (BIAW) founder and Executive Vice President Tom McCabe, the prime mover behind the GOP’s controversial “felons list,” has himself been linked to a multi-state crime spree, including burglary, criminal mischief, and driving while intoxicated. The incidents date back to November and December of 2002, but probably represent only the tip of his felonious iceberg.

I have not completed my research, and it could very well be that some of these crimes may be attributable to other “Tom McCabes,” but an exhaustive several minutes of Googling has turned up additional suspicious evidence that simply cannot be ignored. Prior to founding the BIAW, McCabe apparently passed himself off in a number of unrelated professions, including stints as a priest, a story teller, Scotland’s Deputy Health Minister, and a down-on-his-luck Santa Claus accused of murdering his landlord on an episode of Matlock.

Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

Seattle’s own Rep. Jim McDermott has blogged on dailyKos today, commemorating the Iraq War’s second birthday on Saturday.

It is almost impossible to be coherent about the situation in Iraq. 1500 Americans dead. Over 10,000 maimed in mind and body. Too high a price for no increase in national security.

Rep. McDermott invites Seattle’s “peace community” to join him at rally this Saturday at noon, at the Seattle Center, before marching to the Westlake Center at 1:30. You are also welcome to join him at his 11th Annual Potato Festival fundraiser, 4:30 at Town Hall.

David Postman of the Seattle Times reports this morning that the GOP’s felon list may be way off, because it includes hundreds of people tried as juveniles, who never lost their right to vote.

A partial check by The Seattle Times showed that 165 alleged felon voters in King County had only juvenile cases. The Times was able to check 462 names using a Washington State Patrol database.

An attorney for the Democratic Party said more than 200 juvenile cases were found among the King County names.

That’s 165 out of 462… a 36 percent error rate! (I hope my bank isn’t run by Republicans.) Rossi spokeswoman Mary Lane acknowledged the mistake, but failed to apologize for dragging the names of juvenile offenders into the public record.

“It could very well be that people we have on our list didn’t have their voting rights taken away,” Lane said of the juvenile cases.

Well duh-uh, Mary. Nearly every other “scandal” you’ve touted to the press turned out to be nearly as bogus or exaggerated, so why should the felons list be any different?

Sloppily including juvenile convictions on a public list of suspected felons is just another example of the Rossi camp’s complete and utter indifference towards how many innocent lives they sully or destroy in their PR campaign to brand this a stolen election. Whether it be the baseless charges and innuendo regularly launched from Rossi HQ, or EFF President Bob Williams squawking on talk-radio that Dean Logan is a “crook” who should be jailed, or right-wing shill Stefan Sharkansky misdirecting his anger and disappointment into personal vendettas against individual voters… the entire GOP propaganda war has been reckless and mean-spirited from the start.

Here’s the truth: Rossi’s attorneys have absolutely no evidence of organized fraud or official corruption. And they continue to insist that the felons who voted — the real ones — can’t be trusted to tell us for whom. So they simply don’t have a case.

But while the 2004 election is clearly over, Rossi continues to maintain a a full-time campaign staff, including a campaign manager and spokesperson. And who’s paying for all this? The “Rossi for Governor 2008” PAC.

The committee’s name is about the only thing honest coming out of the campaign these days.

UPDATE:
I just want to add that I hope the BIAW does a better job building houses than they do legal cases. As Richard points out in the thread, the case numbering system makes it “pretty obvious” as to which are juvenile court records.

This whole incident also illustrates the ugly truth behind GOP proposals to aggressively purge the voter rolls: it would inevitably lead to many legal voters being wrongly denied the franchise… as it did in Florida. I suppose this consequence is acceptable to the GOP leadership, as long as it occurs mostly in heavily Democratic counties like King.

I’m not really sure who the Washington Management Service is, but man… everybody sure does hate them. Governor Christine Gregoire announced today that she would eliminate 1,000 middle-managers from the 5,400-member service, saving $50 million per biennium, a move that elicited applause from both organized labor and the virulently anti-labor Evergreen Freedom Foundation.

Tim Welch, spokesman for the Washington Federation of State Employees, said his members likewise are thrilled.

“This is long overdue,” he said. “Next to our collective bargaining contract, this is the most emotional issue for our members. Our members hate WMS with a passion.”

What… both WFSE and EFF are enthusiastically supporting the same thing? As a knee-jerk liberal with no mind of my own, I’m so confused!

According to a press release, Governor Gregoire also expects another $50 million in savings by creating a bulk-purchasing program, and has proposed cutting or eliminating low priority programs, like the state Film Office.

“We must change the culture of state government,” Gov. Gregoire said. “We must reduce bloated management, cut reckless spending and eliminate programs that don’t work.”

With rhetoric like that, I’m sure there are some Republicans who are now even less sure that their party didn’t win the governor’s race, but the silly notion that the Democratic agenda primarily consists of wastefully spending tax dollars is, well… silly. Democrats believe in government, and it doesn’t do us any good to have it bloated with inefficiencies. I’ve always expected Gregoire to be more fiscally conservative than her predecessor, but either way she brings a new perspective to the job that facilitates cuts like these.

“These cuts are just the beginning,” she said. “Our Government Management Accountability and Performance Program

Share:

• Facebook
• Reddit
• LinkedIn
• Email
• Print

SENS. Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell would benefit their state and their party by supporting repeal of the federal death tax.

In perhaps their most cynical editorial on the topic yet, the Seattle Times attempts to persuade Democrats that it would be good political strategy to support repeal of the estate tax, if only to stop their Republican opponents from continuing to use it as a fundraising cash cow.

Okay, we get it already, Frank… you’re mortal, and your family doesn’t want to pay the estate tax when inevitably, the type is set on your tombstone. So how about if Murray and Cantwell trump your cynicism, and instead of repealing the estate tax entirely, they just support an exemption for all people with the last name Blethen? Will that shut you up?

Or as long as we’re considering creative incentives, how about we add a provision that raises the estate tax on newspapers by a whole percentage point, for each time they print the propagandistic misnomer “death tax” …?

Or better yet Frank, if you really have your heart set on repealing something, why not help the state close its yawning budget gap, and selflessly editorialize in support of repealing the sales tax exemption for newspapers?

I’m all for a well-informed, public debate on the estate tax… but you’re just not going to find one in the Seattle Times.

There is a critical vote today in the US Senate on drilling for oil in the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve. NPI Blog has some information on how you can (quickly) voice your opposition.

Our good friend Stefan’s noble crusade to purge our voter rolls of medical researchers was dealt a crushing blow today, when King County Elections rejected his challenge of the voter registration of Dr. Daniel Sosin — a commissioned member of the Public Health Service — currently serving at the CDC in Atlanta. Carla at Preemptive Karma has summarized the decision, and you can download the official ruling here.

Unable to exact revenge on an epidemiologist, Stefan is now turning his sights towards future biochemists, urging prosecution of Chun C. Chen, a sophomore at the University of Washington, who voted in the November election despite the fact that he was not a citizen. Of course, one of the reasons we know about this incident, is that Mr. Chen went down to King County Elections three days after the election, told them he was not a citizen, and asked to have his registration cancelled.

Here’s a kid who made a mistake, realized it, admitted it, and tried to fix it as best he could, and now Stefan is going out of his way to publicize it, knowing full well it could result in revocation of his student visa, and ultimately, deportation… all to make a tiny political point. It’s just another example of how some people on the other side couldn’t give a shit about how many lives they disrupt or careers they destroy in the service of their larger political agenda.

Oh… and don’t you just love Stefan’s typically paranoid musing?

Of course it’s possible somebody impersonated Mr. Chen when he registered to vote, voted and/or cancelled his registration.

Yeah Stefan, and it’s also possible that you are not delusional… but equally unlikely.

Hmmm… perhaps I’ll file a challenge to Stefan’s voter registration on the grounds that he is “incompetent for the purpose of rationally exercising the right to vote” under RCW Chapter 11.88…?

UPDATE:
TJ at Also Also has posted a more thorough discussion of the Sosin case, pointing out what a complete waste of time (and taxpayer dollars) it was.

The argument over Social Security privatization isn’t about rival views on how to secure the program’s future – even the administration admits that private accounts would do nothing to help the system’s finances. It’s a debate about what kind of society America should be.

And it’s a debate Republicans appear to be losing, because the public doesn’t share their view that it’s a good idea to expose middle-class families, whose lives have become steadily riskier over the past few decades, to even more risk. As soon as voters started to realize that private accounts would replace traditional Social Security benefits, not add to them, support for privatization collapsed.

But the Republicans’ loss may not be the Democrats’ gain, for two reasons. One is that some Democrats, in the name of centrism, echo Republican talking points. The other is that claims to be defending average families ring hollow when you defer to corporate interests on votes that matter.

Paul Krugman of the New York Times then goes on to lambast Senator Joseph Lieberman, who he calls The $600 Billion Man, for mindlessly repeating the Bush administration’s empty rhetoric, and for his own empty gesture of voting against the bankruptcy bill.

It isn’t always bad politics to say things that aren’t true and claim to support things you actually oppose: just look at who’s running the country. But Democrats who engage in these tactics right now create big problems for a party that has been given a special chance – maybe its last chance – to remind the country of what Democrats stand for, and why.

Read the whole thing.

Destroying Social Security may not be the only “reform” the faltering Bush administration has trouble passing this year. Apparently, a permanent repeal of the estate tax is facing strong opposition, only this time from traditional GOP allies: the insurance industry.

Leading the charge for the life insurers, who stand to lose a combined $12 billion in premiums if the estate tax is ended, is Frank Keating, the Republican former governor of Oklahoma who now is president of the American Council of Life Insurers. “I am institutionally and intestinally against huge blocs of inherited wealth,” he says. “I don’t think we need the Viscount of Enron or the Duke of Microsoft.”

Speaking of Microsoft, the senior member of the royal family will testify before Congress this week, also in opposition to repealing the estate tax. Bill Gates Sr., the father of the world’s richest man, has suggested that the tax be retained on estates in excess of $3.5 million, a level that would exempt all but one-half of 1 percent of estates from the tax.

“We wouldn’t have an Internet or microprocessors or human genome projects without the funding from the federal government,” Gates, co-chairman of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, said in an interview.

“Those are the things that make our economy so wonderful and make it possible for people to get very, very wealthy.”

Gates says his son, whose net worth is estimated by Forbes magazine to be $46.5 billion, “doesn’t have any confusion about the fact that his success has a lot to do with this country.”

The Republican response? The estate tax isn’t fair to rich people.

“The death of a family member should not be a taxable event,” says Rep. Kenny Hulshof, R-Mo., who sponsored the repeal in the House of Representatives.

I’ll tell you what isn’t fair… the record budget deficits that will be paid off by our children and grandchildren… the millions of kids who are losing their health insurance nationwide… the unfunded mandates from the ironically named “No Child Left Behind” that are bankrupting our public schools. Meanwhile, the wealthiest Americans are saving billions from the Bush tax breaks, while Dick Cheney’s Halliburton buddies don’t even get their hands slapped for overcharging the Pentagon by more than $108 million for fuel imports into Iraq.

There’s absolutely no economic rationale for repealing the tax on the top one-half of 1 percent of estates. If anything, the estate tax is pro-billionaire, as it gives the very wealthy a powerful disincentive to die.