Newest poll result in the Washington state gubernatorial race

The Washington Poll released a new poll this week in the Washington state gubernatorial race. The results are pretty good news for Christine Gregoire, as it shows her leading Dino Rossi 53.7% to 42.1% with 3.5% undecided.

The only catch, as Niki Sullivan at The News Tribune points out, is:

The survey’s margin of error is +/- 5.6 percent. That means any number could be off by as much as 5.6 percent in either direction.

And that means that Gregoire’s lead could be anywhere from nearly zero to more than 20 points.

Well…sort-of, Niki.

A poll’s margin of error specifies a range that should include the true value (i.e. true percentage of the population who say they would vote each way when the poll was taken) with a 95% probability. For this poll, the interval of Gregoire voters defined by the margin of error is 48.1% to 59.3%. But the true value could fall outside this interval—anywhere from 0% to 100%. That the true percentage is outside the interval is only less probable, not impossible.

But even within the range 48.1% to 59.3%, all outcomes are not equally likely. The most likely true value supported by the data is 53.7%, and values near the tails (like 48.1% and 59.3%) are much less likely.

Polls have a margin of error because a small number of individuals are “sampled” in a poll. The same principle applies to flipping a coin. If you toss an honest coin 10 times, you expect 5 heads and 5 tails (i.e. a probability of 50% which is the true underlying probability for an honest coin). Typically, you will not get exactly 5 heads. If you repeat this 5-flip experiment, say, a hundred thousand times, and plot the results, the most likely outcome—five heads—only occurs about one quarter of the time. Occasionally, you would even get 10 heads in a row (about 0.1% of the time).

On the other hand, if you flip an honest coin a million times, the results will be very close to half heads and half tails.

Back to politics. Given that the Washington Poll sampled 300 individuals and found a 53.7% to 42.1% split, we can do a reverse engineered version of the coin flip experiment. We can simulate elections over and over again with 300 individuals who, for every election, each have a 53.7% probability of voting for Gregoire, a 42.1% chance of voting for Rossi and a 3.5% chance of being undecided (i.e. not voting). We can then plot the resulting number of votes for Gregoire in all of the elections.

Here is the result of this exercise in which we simulate 100,000 elections, each with 300 voters:

probs1.png

Vote totals to the right of the red line are wins for Gregoire and those to the left are wins for Rossi. Clearly, the vast majority of the wins are for Gregoire. In fact, she won 96,581 of the elections and Rossi won 3,032 of them. In other words, if the election were held today, we would expect Gregoire to have about a 97% chance of winning the election.

There was another Washington Poll for this race taken late last October that showed Gregoire leading Rossi 46.8% to 42.4%. That poll sampled 601 individuals. Repeating the simulation exercise shows that Gregoire had an 88.7% probability of beating Rossi based on results from that poll. So, we could say that Gregoire’s support has probably improved from the previous poll to the current poll.

The story might end there, except that the newest Washington Poll actually resampled 300 individuals from the 601 participants from October, rather than drawing a new sample. This highly unusual political poll design provides for stronger hints about the trend in support for each Candidate than does two polls of randomly sampled voters. A proper analysis would require access to the raw data, but the increased spread sure looks promising for Gregoire.

Comments

  1. 1

    spews:

    My concern is not so much with Governor Gregoire. She’s done a good job as Governor, and the state is doing significantly better than most of the country. Her opponent is an empty suit. If we can’t win with those advantages, then we deserve to lose.

    But we should have an alternative in the wings. We have a female western state governor with a good track record and at least some expertise in the law, and in international affairs.

    She’s from a state that is reliably Democratic, so the party shouldn’t have too much trouble winning the Governor’s mansion even with a substitute candidate. She’s a strong Obama supporter. She’s personally disliked by our local wingnuts, but has a track record that the right would find difficult to attack. (OK, MTR and Puddy can manage it, but other than those two.)

    Attorney General Gregoire? Vice President Gregoire? Stranger things have happened. Lt. Governor Owen may end up with a real job for a change.

  2. 2

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Looks grim for the greasy little real estate salesman. Since he has very little chance of wrapping his lips around the public tit, he’ll either have to fall back on selling real estate — which isn’t exactly booming right now — or put the screws to his tenants in true slumlord style.

  3. 3

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    I suppose if he had enough units he could eke out a living by keeping tenants’ damage deposits and avoiding the process servers.

  4. 4

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Gonna be a lot harder for Rossi to pay his lawyers this time, because WA Repubs’ deepest pocket, Tom Stewart, has moved to greener pastures to escape inheritance taxes. Not that Rossi’s lawyers are worth anything. Rossi would be $2 million ahead if he had hired a contingent-fee trial lawyer, like the rest of us do.

  5. 5

    ArtFart spews:

    Washington is indeed doing better than other areas, but the freight train that hit the real estate markets elsewhere is bearing down on us. Assuming he doesn’t get elected governor, Dino may have to find another job anyway.

  6. 6

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @1 It takes 2 things to become president: Be from a big state, and have tons of ambition. Unlikely anyone from Washington will ever make it. Even veep is a stretch. Obama picking a westerner might make sense, but my guess is he’ll look eastward to cement the big northeast states’ electoral votes. Our problem is we’re too damned reliable so it’s easy to take us for granted.

    I’d think Gregoire would easily make Obama’s very short list for Attorney General — and she’d be an excellent AG. No more equivocating about whether waterboarding is torture; no more appointing people 2 years out of law school to top Justice Department positions; no more U.S. Attorney shenanigans; and the FBI would actually enforce laws again, instead of breaking them.

    I agree it’s going to be hard to hang onto our governor after this fall’s election. Her talent and ability makes her low-hanging fruit. Very unlikely she’ll be overlooked by Obama’s transition team.

  7. 9

    busdrivermike spews:

    Oh gosh…I am sorry. Some of you think Hillary might be the nominee still. I apologize for trundling upon your opium laced fantasies, Dusty.

  8. 11

    Richard Pope spews:

    BusDriverMike @ 9

    I remember this time last week, DustinJames said that the latest poll had Clinton ahead by double digits in Wisconsin. Obama won by 18%.

  9. 12

    Richard Pope spews:

    Roger Rabbit @ 6

    The Lieutenant Governor serves only as acting Governor until the next general election, at which a new Governor would be elected. So if Christine Gregoire became U.S. Attorney General in January 2009, Brad Owen would be acting Governor until the November 2009 general election.

  10. 13

    Richard Pope spews:

    Roger Rabbit @ 4

    Tom Stewart left Washington shortly after John Carlson lost the Governor’s election in 2000. That was the last year that Stewart gave any significant amount of money to Republicans in this state. Up until that point, Stewart was giving close to a million dollars a year.

  11. 14

    The Guy With No Car spews:

    Look, while I like the idea of Christine Gregoire as US Attorney General, I wouldn’t want her to take the job. Why? Well, two reasons. First, she is doing an excellent job as governor, and we should hang on to that. Consider some of the alternatives. Second, there are other Washington politicos who would be well worth considering in an Obama cabinet. Gary Locke comes immediately to mind, and Obama would get props for having an Asian-American Secretary of Something Or Another. Ron Sims is in charge of a bureaucracy larger than that of several states.

    That’s just my opinion. If you don’t like it, I have others.

  12. 15

    Arjifar spews:

    “Many cubans hope (Castro’s brother) will let more people open businesses, own homes, and even travel abroad….” (from the Seattle Times)

    Sheesh, people—and this is the country you love so dearly as being good for its citizens because it has “free health care??” Open your eyes, please!

  13. 16

    scotto spews:

    Nice treatment. If you can think of an excuse, I’d like to see a post on polling of population subsets — women under 35, NASCAR dads, enviro voters, etc. Something with a Venn diagram, or better yet, partitioning of probability space and using Bayes Rule (given priors, how significant are these groups?) I dunno, maybe that’s too eggheaded, but I think people who want to understand polling would be interested.

  14. 17

    ByeByeGOP spews:

    Remember when Rossi lied about being a real estate broker – the GOP doesn’t care – they still love their own liars.

  15. 18

    Jim, a genuine musician spews:

    I sort of feel sorry for Dino, being stinked by Bush and his Republican grand stinkdom.

    Nah–not really. Can’t really fell sorry for any Republican.

  16. 19

    Daddy Love spews:

    In practical terms, a lead of 53% to 42% means Gregoire wins 100% of the election.

  17. 21

    FreedomLover spews:

    Roger Rabbit:

    You seem to get a rise out of baiting conservatives that don’t post on this blog. Who are you posting all those inflammatory comments for exactly? Oh, and I don’t care who’s governor as long as the economy is rolling along. However, Fraudoire has shown total incompetence on the infrastructure issues. Alaska Way viaduct, 520 bridge, 405. All disasters.

  18. 22

    spews:

    @1 John Barelli

    The chances of Gregoire being VEEP are less than the chances of GW Bush becoming Czar of Russia.

    While she has beena competent governor, she is far less popular than she should be even amongst Dems. Though many, including this one, will vote for her, the Reps are likley to do a lot better in the guv race than in the Presidential race.

    Why is this?

    1. Like here predecessor, CG seems unwilling to take stands that are controversial. Peope want a VEEP whyo can lead, CG does not project that image,

    2. She is a very poor speach writer.

    Who wil BHO choose?

    This choice is often surprising but I would assume it will be a man because there is no maho female on the demo side other than HRC. It will also be someone with expertise that adds to Obama’s creds. Wesley Clark or Jim Webb come to my mind. I have also read that Pete Nelson and Evan Bayh are being mooted.

    What will he do with CG?

    Here is the interesting part. The Obama machine is very different from the Clinton machine or the Bush machine. Clinton and bUsh built grass roots, traditional PARTY efforts. BHO has not done so. If he is as samrt as he seems to be, I expect he will reach out once he is the candidate.

    If that happens he will not only be Pres, he will be the true head of the Demo party.

    So, the quesit6onn is what would the Obama machi8ne do with CG? In my opinion she is NOT a good person to nack for governor after this term. She has demonstrated weaknesses that a resurgent right could exploit. So, the ideal thing would be to move her to some position where her administrative and legal skills could be used and open up the gov seat for one of several promising younger dems. CG might, for example, end up at the EPA.

    There is a wrinkle in this cloth .. WAS state e3lcts the Lt Guv separately. Appointing CG ad anything, mean we will need to have a dem as LG! But, that is a lousy job and generally no one has wanted it. If we KNEW BHO was going t be elected and that he would make a job for CG then perhaps domer strong dem would step up to the plate?

  19. 23

    rhp6033 spews:

    FL @ 21: (1) Apparantly you haven’t been here that long, or are selectively reading the posts? We’ve got an interesting (from a psychological perspective) selection of wingnuts residing here, whether they are posting or just reading. RR is posting for their benefit, as they need the education.

    (2) “However, Fraudoire has shown total incompetence on the infrastructure issues. Alaska Way viaduct, 520 bridge, 405. All disasters.”

    Typicall wingnut strategy: First, allow fellow wingnuts to use scare tactics to defeat every attempt to use tax money to fix the infrastructure issues. Got a comprehensive plan? Then complain about some of the specifics, and put in enough scare tactics to get voters to reject any plan that funds something they don’t agree with 100%. Break it down into smaller projects? Then argue that it doesn’t address everything, so encourage voters to vote it down. Have a mixed plan? Then argue that it just, well, costs too much. Then after spending years fighting against every plan, argue that the Democratic governor is “incompentent” because they can’t solve the transportation problems.

  20. 24

    correctnotright spews:

    @8: Richardson should be Secretary of State – he has the negotiating experience to get things done.

    Attorney general has to be the cleanest, most honorable, brightest and most independent person. None of those qualities were used by Bush.

    Hillary should be Secetary of HHS – and get Health Care done this time.

    the top priorities need to be:
    getting out of Iraq
    stopping the regrowth of al Qaeda
    Health care
    the deficit
    the trade deficit with china and other countries
    Nafta

    all the things bush can’t or won’t do. It is time to turn this country around – 8 years of republicans screwing things up, crony appointments, corruption and science denial is enough.

  21. 25

    spews:

    @14 Guy with no Car

    Hmm. We agree (except on how wonderful CG is doing).

    Gary is a very talented man, though a loser as a politician. I do not think he makes sense as AG (he is not strong enough) but as Sec of Commerce or Ambassador to China?

    Actually, the WA state person I see as most likely to move to WA is Cantwell. She is not an impressive Senator Moving her to some admin type job .. e.e. Sec of HHS or Interior, would open up a Senate seat for one of the current congress people, several of whom are pretty damn impressive. Adam Smith, for example was an early Obamite!

  22. 26

    rhp6033 spews:

    It will be nice to have Gregoire win the next election decisively. It will put to rest the “stolen election” fraud perpetuated by the Rossi people.

    As for her future, I would hate to go through another govenatorial election in 2009. We need to have some stability here to get some of the transportation problems solved. I was pleasantly surprised when Gregoire took a hard line on the Alaska Way Viaduct issue, imposing a deadline for Seattle & King County to come up with a viable plan. Eventually somebody’s going to die when that highway comes down in an earthquake, waiting forever is not an option.

  23. 27

    PuddyPrick, The Fact Finding Prognosticator... spews:

    rhp6033: “RR is posting for their benefit, as they need the education.”

    You make me laugh. He posting something for our benefit? We need BULLSHITTIUM vaccinations all the time from his incorrect Pellets.

    So I guess you agreed with his Haiti commentary?

    What a crock!

  24. 28

    FreedomLover spews:

    People ARE going to die on the AWV, and I pin all the blame on Democrats who run this state like the Stalinists they are.

  25. 29

    FreedomLover spews:

    How to tell when a Democrat isn’t telling the truth? When they open their piehole.

  26. 30

    FreedomLover spews:

    Come on RR – I’m waiting for your next “witty retort”. I’m one of those right “wingnuts” that are totally out of power right now. I literally have no say in government right now. All I can do is post comments on blogs and talk to my neighbors. YOU have all the power right now, and what are you doing with it?

  27. 31

    PuddyPrick, The Fact Finding Prognosticator... spews:

    SeattleJew said this about Maria CantThinkWell “She is not an impressive Senator”.

    We agree again…

  28. 32

    FreedomLover spews:

    Dino Rossi should run in Oklahoma, at least there they’d appreciate him. The idiots of WA state just want another CommieCrat(TM).

  29. 33

    correctnotright spews:

    @30: Laugh at you idiot wingnuts as the democrats sweep the incompetent republicans out of office.

    first off, we have a republican president – if you didn’t notice (I guess reality is a tough concept for you ot maybe you are already projecting republicans losing everything because of the massive idiocy and problems they have caused).

    Since you are a freedom lover and republican, I guess you are in favor of:
    torture
    Illegal wiretapping (and have not read the fourth amendment)
    Illegal renditions
    No right Habeus corpus
    massive deificits
    Unnnecessary war in Iraq
    Ruined economy
    Huge trade deficits
    record oil prices

    along with:
    Corruption (Abramoff)
    Ineptness (Katrina)
    Crony appointments (Brownie, gonzalez among others)

  30. 34

    ByeByeGOP spews:

    Hm RR what SHOULD we do with all that power ??? How about exporting all the right wing traitors to a place they’d be more comfortable with – say North Korea? Good start.

  31. 35

    PuddyPrick, The Fact Finding Prognosticator... spews:

    rhp6033: Since this state is “predominately” left-wing especially on this side of the state, for Rossi to lose by 129 votes means many donkeys crossed-over.

    You don’t think that will happen again when the populace realizes she prevaricates on the transportation issues?

    Clueless Idiot “prevaricate – be deliberately ambiguous” like you are every day.

  32. 36

    PuddyPrick, The Fact Finding Prognosticator... spews:

    Correctnotright: Where in the FISA law does it say the President shall not, the President will not, or the President can not…?

    Let me know…

    Puddy

  33. 37

    spews:

    @6 Roger CG as VEEP

    I do not hink so. BHO .. based on his campaign .. seems to be somewhat of an elitist and CG does not have a reputation of being an astute lawyer. She would be a good AG if and only if, BHO wanted to have the justice Dept run, as many have been, as a branch of his own office.

    OTOH, if he is as good as I think, I expect a Lincoln, Kenendy style cabinet made up of people with their own ambitions AND high levels of ability.

    Of the folks I know about, I think the obvious choice ofr AG is Edwards! He has lwyer genes and an agenda that BHO can support.

    Another player to watch is Laurence Tribe. Tribe was also an early BHO supporter and is an obvious candidate for SC.

    Back at Gregoire, she might be a good choice for Solicitor General. That si more of an admin job tha a leadership job.

    Some other thoughts about possible cabinet appointments:

    VEEP Richardson

    1. State Webb, Clark, Hillary,Richardson, some second level Clinton types Holbrook?
    2. HHS Maybe CG .. this is going to be a helluva task as Obamacare comes into being. Reich, Gregoire, Sims are possible.
    3. Interior: This has to be a Westerner and is a lot bigger job under BHO than under his predecessors. I do not think CG is strong enough for it nor is she environmental. Also this would be agreat place to bring in a Republican …Whitman?
    4. Treasury .. Some unexpected Robert Rubin type.
    5. Ambassador to the UN Jesse jAckson. I know this sounds wierd but Jackson has matured immensley and has a lot of gravitas.
    6. Defense Clark, Webb, Sanchez
    7. New Jr. Sen. from Illinois: Emmanuel
    8. Special Envoy for Peace in Middle East Bill Clinton
    9. majority leader HRC
    10. political advisor Axelrod
    11. Commerce .. some wall street type, not now expected.

    Hmm..

    maybe we shoud start a pool?

  34. 38

    PuddyPrick, The Fact Finding Prognosticator... spews:

    Correctnotright: If you ARE NOT a US citizen where does Habeus Corpus come in to play? If you remember Since you want the body, why not tell us where in the US Constitution does it apply to foreigners?

    Let me know…

    Puddy

  35. 39

    spews:

    Rossi is going to WIN.

    I will tell you why.

    First, there are the unmined gold veins of Gregoires shaky performance as AG. There are enough skeletons in that closet to populate a horror movie!

    Second, ll the signs point to a nearly scandalous mis use of the budget process. We overspent and now have debt. Business-like doe snot come to mind with CG but it does with DR’s surrogates … the schwarzenabler.

    Third, her support for the Black guy running for Presient over someone of her own race and geneder has made a LOT of women angry. Rossi will use tis by appealing t women and supporting such ley issues as pregnancy leave,

    Fourth, CG’s racist past will biute her. Rossi is 1/4 Tlingit and id very popular amongst that people. Can yo spell ca$ino?

    Fifth, CG is now stuck with Obama .. a black dude in a state where there are more sons of scandahoovia then descendants of plantation trysts. Rossi will exploit her past racism to make this a strong issue by appearing with R4ev Hutchinson! This trap will entice CG to the defence of the gay community (who have few votes), piss of the whites and breeders, etc.

    Finally, there is the WAR. can you dimwits spell B-O-E-I-N-G?

  36. 41

    Daddy Love spews:

    39 TBG

    All that stuff was also true in 2004 and the best Rossi could do was (almost) tie. Now Chris Gregoire is the incumbent governor instead of AG running for an open seat, Dino hasn’t been doing shit that he can point to for four years, and she’s polling eleven points ahead.

    Dino, can you spell L-O-S-E?

  37. 42

    Daddy Love spews:

    39 TBG

    Make that, “most of that stuff.”

    Yeah, I can see where you’re coming from. After all this is such a heavily Republican State and Obama is so unpopular.

  38. 43

    spews:

    Daddy Love …
    You wish!

    What is she gonna do when DR shows up in HIS ethnic costume, diss the casinos?

    Her are the words for the speech by DR,

    “AS a proud Tlingit, I am running for all the pople of Washington state against a woman who has made race and religion int political fodder. Along with President to be McCain, I celebrate4 our shared legacy while my “liberal” opponent can only see my epopel as recipie4nts for welfare.

    Look at what has happened under her leadership at the the UW. We have only one indigenous American undergraduate but a whole lot of African American kids on football scholarships.

    We need true diversity, not support for people just because their skin is dark,”

    Of course he would then have the Casinos behind him.

  39. 44

    spews:

    @42 Daddy Love

    Who said the state is solidly Republican? What you do not understand is that Obama is the best thing to happen to the Repubican party since McGovern.

    Tell Mr. pedophile, what will Gregoire do in response t Rossi’s playing thr Tlingit card?

  40. 45

    correctnotright spews:

    @36 and 38:Puddy
    1. Habeus corpus was suspended for so-called “enemy combatants”, including some that were US citizens – the Supreme court ruled that the Bush administration could not suspend habeus corpus in the case of Hamdi vs Rumsfeld – where a US citizen was denied habeus corpus. A US citizen, NOT an alien, was denied habeus corpus.

    Here is the official link: http://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL33180.pdfal link:

    2. The fourth amendment to the constitution states that illegal search and seizures cannot be done and that probable cause and a warrant must be established and emphasizes the right of citizens to be secure in their homes and effects.

    Gee – why aren’t conservatives as upset or more upset about this than the garbled reading of the second amendment?

    This has been consistently interpreted by the courts to mean that US citizens cannot be wiretapped without a warrant – according to the FISA law. That means the executive branch cannot wiretap without a warrant under the original FISA law. They can get a retroactive warrant for wiretapping if necessary – but they cannot data surf/collect without a warrant – period – under the original law. but NOOOO – bush wanted to do more and so they illeagally wiretapped US citizens and clain that a OLC opinion allowed it. They admit to doing illegal wiretapping – that is a crime.

    Why else do they need immunity for the telecoms forced to so the wiretapping? If there is no crime – you don’t need retroactive immunity (amnesty).

    Would you want a president (say Clinton) allowed to wiretap you legally? I don’t think so! Stop the power of the executive branch to spy on us! We should all be together on this – it doesn’t make us any safer.

  41. 46

    Politically Incorrect spews:

    It doesn’t matter whether or not Gregoire wins the vote in 2008: King County Elections will make sure she wins by counting the votes her way.

  42. 47

    correctnotright spews:

    @39: Dream on! Rossi is a has-been with little support beyond the far right fringe and the BIAWW coporate interests. In the last four years – he has become a joke and his whining over the last election (after McCay was fired and found no fraud) now links him with discredited republicans.

  43. 48

    correctnotright spews:

    @46: More republican whining – the facts are that there was no fraud – of course that didn’t stop the firing of the republican appointed USAA.

    Keep up the whining though – it is a great strategy for Dino to lose

  44. 49

    correctnotright spews:

    @44: The big idiot gipper

    Umm- let’s see, Washington state has a democratic governor, two democratic senators and 6/9 democratic congresscritters.

    the republicans are going to lose big time in this state and can’t even run their caucuses right.

    Obama will crush McCain here.

    I guess that means the state is republican in the fatasy world of republicans.

  45. 50

    Jack Flanders spews:

    I’m officially tired of conservatives. Our state is doing great. Out of 50 states, Forbes considers us the 5th BEST state to do business in:
    http://www.forbes.com/2007/07/.....tates.html

    Yet we’re ALSO are liberal, have good gay rights and the Flying Spaghetti Monster has not struck us down yet for that. We can have both, good business and gay rights.

    Dinosaur Rossi and his other conservative losers are free to move to Alabama if they’re fed up with the liberal voters of Washington. States ‘rights’ means each state gets to be as liberal or conservative as they choose. If Kansas wants to elect folks that don’t think evolution is real (ie, Republicans), go for it. And if Washington state wants to elect folks that gives us domestic partnership benefits, great. It’s why I MOVED to Seattle, not Montgomery Alabama. It’s why we have a much more educated, high-tech work force than the traditional “socially conservative” states.

    If the conservatives are annoyed by the pesky PUBLIC electing Democrats, maybe they’re in the wrong state.

  46. 51

    Politically Incorrect spews:

    correctnotright,

    I’m not a Republican you worthless motherfucker. Eat shit and die – MORON!!

  47. 52

    spews:

    Roger (at various)

    For some reason, we tend to consider ourselves a small, rather inconsequencial state, and feel that our elected officials are not major players on the national level.

    Not just here, but it seems (entirely subjective observation) that most Washingtonians have the same, unquestioned opinion.

    Considering that we’re ranked 14th both in population and in gross state product, are important in the areas of manufacturing, high technology, agriculture and transportation, that rather quaint opinion has been overcome by events long ago.

    Not only are we more populous than Arizona or New Mexico, we’re bigger than Indiana, and the last unofficial census estimate actually puts us in 13th place for population (ahead of Massachusetts).

    Our state is no longer one of those “little” states. For good or bad, we’re one of the big guys now, and our Senators and Governor are major players on the national level.

    So when someone simply assumes that the VP office will go to someone from an important state, consider this bit of ranking:

    13 – Washington (6,468,424)
    14 – Massachusetts (6,449,755)
    16 – Arizona (6,338,755)
    32 – Arkansas (2,834,797)
    36 – New Mexico (1,969,915)
    .
    So, who do we have waiting in the wings to take over when Governor Gregoire gets noticed by President Obama?

  48. 53

    Politically Incorrect spews:

    The point is, you socialist bastard, is that it sure looked like fraud back in 2004. It was just toooo fucking convenient for King County to hold off certifying its election count. They had to keep their bets covered just in case some manipulation of the vote was required. Of course, these crooks were smart enough to make it look good, like there was no “fraud.” What the hell do you expect? They’re professionals at it.

    Do you people understand that most of Washington think King County is run by crooks?

  49. 54

    YLB spews:

    it sure looked like fraud back in 2004.

    Mass delusion on the part of right wingers not backed up by any facts. Two million worth of Republican money couldn’t prove jack before a hand-picked judge. Dismissed with prejudice.

    most of Washington think King County is run by crooks?

    and most rejected I-912, George “term limits” Nethercutt, Mike the friendly insurance man McGavick and in Nov, most of Washington will reject Dino Rossi the whiner and loser.

  50. 55

    spews:

    Ok, from another of your socialist bastards.

    Let’s see. King County had Republican observers at each step of the process. None of them claim fraud. (Wow, we’re good. We must have bought them off.)

    Additionally, we were so good that the investigators hired by the Washington State Republican Party couldn’t find any evidence that there was fraud. Wow, we’re really good!

    Frankly, from a Democrat, I’ve never believed that my party is that together. The sheer size of the conspiracy that would have had to have taken place boggles the mind.

    And somehow we’ve managed to hold all of that together for almost four years now. No leaks, no disgruntled staffers spilling the beans, nothing. This would have to be a conspiracy that would impress even the folks that are convinced that the CIA killed off John Kennedy.

    Remember that this isn’t one of those “tweak the programming” or “supress the vote” situations where a relative few people could pull it off. All of the complaints that the wingnuts have about the election were from things that happened in plain sight of lots of people.

    Wow, we’re amazingly good!

    Or, of course, it could have simply been a tight race, that you lost. This requires nothing beyond some clumsy ballot handling. I doubt that this possibility ever entered your mind, but that was the conclusion of most rational people, including a whole lot of Republicans.

  51. 56

    correctnotright spews:

    @53:
    Gee Politically whatever – not a republican, eh? – just echoing the false talking points and unable to make a cogent argument – you sure sound like a republican to me. Unable to make a real point or offer real evidence and resorting to name-calling.

    And the evidence you have that there was voter fraud in King county? and the evidence you have that most of the rest of the state isn’t voting JUST like King county?

    we do have the evidence from the republican USAA, John McCay, who stated emphatically that there was no evidence of voter fraud – if you know differently – then let’s see it.

    Otherwise – all you have is – whining.

  52. 57

    spews:

    Barelli

    You are a little right. Obama may well choose Gregoire to fulfill his need ot be politically correct on gender.

    Ms Gregoire is really proud of her gender and of her role in the tobacco dingus.

    Maybe Obama will use her as VEEP, That makes sense. Then he does not need to worry about threats from the women’s movement or from a VEEP who might actually be able to be President .. you know some manly guy like Webb!

    Hmmmm … it would be fun to imagine her debating with McCain’s Veep choice ..Ann Coulter! This could be the presidential equivalent of a mud rassle!

    OK, the Gipper is on board, the Black Guy shold choose the Catholic Woman as VEEP!

    Imagine the ads ..

    Obama genuflecting in a mosque, CG, lace doily on her head, staring worshipfully at the statue of Mary! The voice over (naturally done by Barack himself) we are one people of many faiths.

    Awesome.

    BTW, how many wives does BHO have?

  53. 58

    correctnotright spews:

    @55: Thank you John – nice summary for the clueless and factless non-republican trolls.

  54. 59

    correctnotright spews:

    Ann Coulter!! as veep – hahaha
    No experience except her own voter fraud.

    Fact check after the debate would be hilarious – and she would alienate more people than cheney – I wish McCain would pick her – she would be torn to shreds. Ann has never met a fact she couldn’t ignore or obfuscate. Most of her diatribe is 100% fact-free – insulting liberals is her only platform and she doesn’t even do that well.

  55. 60

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @10 Richard, I never ceased to be amazed by your affinity for arcane detail. You’re the stuff of which corporate law firm associates are made. What went wrong?

  56. 61

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @13 Am I thinking of the wrong guy? Who’s the guy who owns a square mile of real estate on Vashon Island? And helicoptered to work every day? I thought that was Stewart.

  57. 62

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    In any case, Stewart didn’t get very much for his $1 million a year — a handful of psycho state legislators and 1 state supreme court justice.

  58. 63

    Bagdad Bush spews:

    Here we go again – complaining of fraud – do we have to bitch slap the terminally stupid on a regular basis here?

    FACTS IN EVIDENCE THAT CANNOT BE CONTROVERTED

    1) The GOP took the election to court – a conservative court located in the most conservative county in the state and LOST.
    2) The only evidence of voter fraud found at the trial was ILLEGAL votes by republicans.

    Dino (I am a real estate broker – really I am) Rossi lost – get over it. And he’ll looooooose again by an even wider margin. Those who don’t like it – move to fucking Mississippi where you get to live at Wallmart and work at the prison.

  59. 64

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    I wonder if he figured out a way to disguise his political contributions as “business expenses” and deducted them on his tax return?

  60. 66

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @22 Gregoire wouldn’t give up being governor to run a glorified Department of Ecology. That would be a demotion.

  61. 67

    spews:

    @59 correct

    If you libtards are so effin confidant, how come Mrs. Clinton is out shedding manure everywhere about Obiwan today? Is anyone on YOUR side fact checking or just going clucj cluck as this chick drags your condidate down?

    As usually, the Rep party will rpove that it IS the party of real opportunity. Ann Coulter would make missy G look like a pussy! Fact checking? You just watch Ann lay out all that stuff she pulled at Gonzaga! And can you imagine the effect of Ann reciting Gregoire’s speach about how neat it is that WAstate has three women at the top? I can see it now ..Ann will call it the vagina trilogy and use iot to also make fun of Gregoires shaky relationshipwith her church.

    Howso ever nahhh, even if McCain gives into librul bull shit , he is too much of man to choose Coulter. My antennae tell me he is considering Christy Todd Whitman or Carly Fiorina. Frankly, it does not matter who he picks, having a woman as VEEP will tear the Obamistas apart.

  62. 68

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @23 We can say right off the bat that the fool posting @21 is a liar, because if he loved freedom, he wouldn’t be a wingnut.

  63. 69

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Must I remind y’all once again that Gregoire has played a “shell-game” with the State Finances. There is no “Rainy Day Fund” when the State Retirement Fund is underfunded by $5 BILLION per the 6/30/07 Annual Report AND with nearly $37 BILLION invested in Equities and markets down approx 10%, that is another $3.7 BILLION underfunded.
    Nice try on ignoring the shell-game dudes.
    But hey…keep dreamin’!!
    If you borrowed another $200,000 on your home equity and put the proceeds in the bank, would that mean you have a Rainy Day Fund?? Yeah and another $200,000 in debt that someone must pay off.
    Rossi has plenty of campaign fodder.
    I know of no one who voted for Rossi last time and is now a Gregoire fan.
    Isn’t is amazing that a State with so many anti-Military KLOWNS fail to connect the dots that Boeing, Microsoft & others have been the proud beneficiaries of War dollars.
    Also, the anti-builder KLOWNS fail to see how important the Construction Industry has been to State & Local Governments.
    Local Governments rely heavily on Sales Tax & Permits.
    Things are slowing down.
    Wait until the next State Economist Budget Forecast Revisions.
    The phoney-baloney Rainy Day Fund could evaporate overnight and we are still stuck with the $5 BILLION+ Underfunded State Retirement Fund…and all those new State Employees.

  64. 70

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @21 Hey dumbshit! This is a liberal blog. Exposing wingnut cockroaches to sunlight is what we do here. If you have complaints, write them here [ ] and send them here __.

  65. 71

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @23 The interesting thing about the wingnuts’ transportation arguments is that it took Gregoire only 1 legislative session to get things moving on a backlog of stalled infrastructure projects that Republican obstructionists had spent the previous decade blocking.

    What it took was Democratic majorities in both legislative houses, and voters will remember that.

  66. 72

    spews:

    @22 Roger

    I did not say ecology I said EPO,

    Assuming Obama wants to build on Clinton’s restructuring of the party by buildiong a national organization loyal to him, she makes no snese in her current job. It wold be ebtetr to open toh Guv’s office openm to eomone with more promise/

    OTOH, the EPO is perfgect for her. Whitman (also an ambitious fem) ran it under lil Bush until she quit in outrage. CG’s skills and rather flat personality would well there and she could get enough done to become a wealthy lobbyist.

  67. 73

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    And then, of course, amid all the anti-gas tax screaming from the jackrabbit counties is the fact THEIR roads are paid for by Democratic taxpayers in King County.

  68. 75

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @27 You may not appreciate my spankings now, puddinghead, but you will understand after you grow up.

  69. 77

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Looks like we have a couple of new trolls on HA this morning, which is good, because we need some fresh meat. Beating up the same old trolls all the time is tiring.

  70. 79

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    28 – 30 Unfortunately, the new ones aren’t very bright — just more run-of-the-mill dumbass wingnuts.

  71. 81

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @34 Don’t forget the waterboarding. We need confessions. Lots of confessions!

    HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR

  72. 82

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @35 You of all people should know, puddyidiot, that AAs boycotted her (which was her own fault, as she didn’t do the necessary fence-mending) and that Rossi also benefitted from a gay Libertarian candidate siphoning off nearly tens of thousands of normally Democratic votes — a circumstance unlikely to repeat itself in 2008.

  73. 83

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Add to that, the fact that name recognition counts for a lot in politics, and Gregoire is much better know to Washington citizens now, plus Rossi didn’t win very many hearts and minds with his juvenile temper tantrum after losing in 2004, and it all adds up to Rossi starting ’08 at a major disadvantage. PLUS he has to run downticket of the Bush legacy, PLUS the historic opportunity to elect America’s first black president will turn out Demo voters in droves, and it all adds up to a Rossi humiliation. I say he gets 39.5% — only 1 1/2 points better than the mother beater.

  74. 85

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @38 Hey puddinghead, habeas corpus DOES apply to foreigners when they’re in the U.S. (That’s why the Busheviks sent the innocent people they kidnapped, tortured, and killed to places like Gitmo, Bagram, and Poland.)

    As for why the Constitution doesn’t apply habeas to foreigners living in their own countries, the probable reason is the Framers assumed we wouldn’t become an aggressive militarist power that invades other countries which haven’t done anything to us.

    Boy, did they miss the boat on that one. But then, in their defense, it was hard to foresee the modern Republican Party back in 1776.

  75. 86

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @39

    “Rossi is going to WIN. I will tell you why. First, there are the unmined gold veins of Gregoires shaky performance as AG. There are enough skeletons in that closet to populate a horror movie!”

    Hmmm, why did his campaign overlook this in 2004, when these skeletons might have been useful?

    As for Gregoire’s shaky performance, Washington’s voters elected her attorney general THREE TIMES, and she won a judgment in favor of our state worth $4.25 billion — enough to save every Washington resident $700 of future taxes.

    You are funny.

    HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR

    “Second, ll the signs point to a nearly scandalous mis use of the budget process. We overspent and now have debt. Business-like doe snot come to mind with CG but it does with DR’s surrogates … the schwarzenabler.”

    Even if this was true, which it is not (the state constitution prohibits budget deficits, and Washington has never had a budget deficit), the average voter knows nothing about the state budget, and doesn’t care.

    You are funny.

    HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR

    “Third, her support for the Black guy running for Presient over someone of her own race and geneder has made a LOT of women angry. Rossi will use tis by appealing t women and supporting such ley issues as pregnancy leave,”

    A Republican supporting pregnancy leave?

    You are funny.

    HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR

    “Fourth, CG’s racist past will biute her. Rossi is 1/4 Tlingit and id very popular amongst that people. Can yo spell ca$ino?”

    Gregoire does have a problem with the African American vote. If you’re foolish enough to think her campaign manager will overlook that again, you’re mighty foolish. As for Rossi being 1/4 Tlingit, I don’t know if he is or not, but this is the first I’ve ever heard about it, and if I don’t know this then neither do 99.99% of the rest of the state’s voters. As for Indians voting Republican …

    You are funny.

    HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR

    “Fifth, CG is now stuck with Obama .. a black dude in a state where there are more sons of scandahoovia then descendants of plantation trysts. Rossi will exploit her past racism to make this a strong issue by appearing with R4ev Hutchinson! This trap will entice CG to the defence of the gay community (who have few votes), piss of the whites and breeders, etc.”

    Oh yes, feel free to ride Obama’s unpopularity into the governor’s mansion — if you can.

    You are funny.

    HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR

    “Finally, there is the WAR. can you dimwits spell B-O-E-I-N-G?”

    Shortly after I came home from Vietnam, I got into a discussion with a fellow bus rider about the war, and he said America had to stay in Vietnam because Boeing workers needed the jobs. Not to contain communism, not to save the Vietnamese people from a horrible fate, but to preserve Boeing jobs. Even then, when Seattle was struggling in the throes of one of its worst Boeing busts, that argument lacked both morality and common sense. Today, it is merely ludicrous. Why? Because most Boeing defense production is located in Wichita and other out-of-state locations. All Boeing does in Washington now is assemble commercial airplanes, and very little else. They don’t even make the parts here anymore.

    But let’s examine your war-is-good-for-business argument a little deeper. That worked real well for you wingnuts in the aftermath of our last big war, didn’t it? It worked so well it elected Jimmy Carter president.

    You are funny.

    HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR

  76. 87

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Personally, I think you should contact Rossi and offer him your suggestion that he run for governor on a pro-war platform.

    HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR

  77. 88

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @43 Dino can wear all the feather headdresses he wants to. If he gets 100% of the Tlingit vote, that might boost his final total to 39.6%.

  78. 89

    rhp6033 spews:

    Puddy @ 35: I don’t think it was Democrats who crossed over to vote for Rossi. It was Democrats like myself, who weren’t particularly enthusiastic for her at the time, who chose not to vote for either candidate.

    Big mistake. Rossi’s election would have been a complete disasters for this state – all the problems we have on a national level via Bush & Co. & his Republican sponsors duplicated on a local level here. In the meantime, I (and lots of other people) who were underwhelmed by Gregoire as state Attorney General have been pretty impressed by her performace as Governor, especially given the circumstances of her taking office without anything resembling a mandate.

    So get ready for a trouncing. Four years ago Rossi was riding on Bush’s coattails, proclaiming the successful victory in Iraq and the War on Terror (except for those few “dead enders” who keep shooting at our soldiers). But now that the Republican party has been publically revealed to be rotten to the core, especially the wingnuts which have been in charge of it for the past twenty years or so, expect some retribution at the polls in 2008. Rossi came close in 2008 riding on lots of Republican money and Bush’s coattails, but how well will he do without that money and while trying to distance himself from the Bush scandals?

  79. 90

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @43 You really ARE an idiot. The Indians haven’t forgotten which political party tried to disband their tribes. They haven’t forgotten Slade the Indian-Fighter and his sidekick Jim Johnson, who built his own political career on Indian-bashing, and now stinks up a seat on the state supreme court. Neither have they forgotton which party’s lobbyists extorted millions of dollars from Indian casinos all across the U.S. But apparently YOU have forgotten that it was Indian votes that gave Maria Cantwell her 2,200-vote victory margin over Indian-hater Slade in 2000.

  80. 91

    rhp6033 spews:

    Dori Monson was just spouting on the radio that “We could cut the state budget in half and the people of Washington wouldn’t even notice the difference”. He then goes to blame Gregoire and the Democrats for a state budget deficit.

    My God, what an idiot. He goes from ranting about 33 million for “arts on the 520 bridge” (which is just a proposal, not a budget item) to concluding we can cut the budget in half and still provide all the state services. Clearly, the man skipped third-grade math.

  81. 92

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @44 “what will Gregoire do in response t Rossi’s playing thr Tlingit card?”

    She’ll probably yawn.

  82. 93

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    The Tlingit Card. I’ll have to remember that. Yes, that’s good. Has a nice ring to it. It resonates. It’s the stuff of which legendary bumper stickers are made.

  83. 95

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @46 The weak excuse of a weak mind for a weak candidate losing a weak campaign with a weak platform.

  84. 96

    rhp6033 spews:

    Oh, yea, Roger, I had almost forgotten about Abrahomoff. He gets millions of dollars in fees from one tribe to “contribute” to Republican lawmakers in an attempt to get permission to open up tribal casinos, and then takes millions of dollars in fees from another tribe to “contribute” to Republican lawmakers to oppose the first tribe’s petition.

    Reminds me of an old Texas justice of the peace (I forget his name, got a reputation for hanging people). Anyway, he once started a trial by declaring (paraphrased from memory):

    “In the interest of fairness I should mention that I got a twenty dollar bribe from the plaintiff to decide the case in their favor, and a twenty-five dollar bribe from the defendant to decide the case in their favor. I propose to give back five dollars to the defendant, and then decide the case squarely on the merits”.

  85. 98

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @51 So what are you then? A Libertine? Constitutionalist Party? How about NSDAP? Is the GOP too far left and too democratic for you?

  86. 99

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @52 John, the Pacific Rim states (California excepted, because of its size and sheer mass of electoral votes) have never been players in national politics. Maybe it’s because we’re so far away from D.C., I don’t know. Or maybe because the GOP has written us off and the Democratic Party takes us for granted (which is true). Oregon, Idaho, Alaska, and Hawaii aren’t players, either, even though each of those states is important in its own way. The center of gravity in American politics has been in the East and South for as long as I can remember.

  87. 100

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @53 “The point is, you socialist bastard, is that it sure looked like fraud back in 2004.”

    Only to you and your wingnut friends. Reasonable people realized there was nothing to the GOP’s shrill claims after they spent $2 million contesting the results and came up with 4 less votes than they started with.

    I’m curious how much (little) you actually know about King County Elections. Have you ever attended pollworker training? Worked as a pollworker? Did you observe the 2004 recounts? Do you have any idea how the manual recount was conducted?

    I’ll tell you how. A bunch of tables were set up on the open floor of a very large room. At each table sat a vote counter chosen from a list submitted by the Democrats, and another vote counter chosen from a list submitted by the Republicans, plus a county employee who acted as the “recorder.” A few feet away, behind rope lines, legions of observers from all 3 parties (Repubs, Dems, Libertarians), TV news crews, and print reporters observed every move the counting teams made.

    Each team was given a cardboard box containing all the ballots for one precinct. The Republican counter and the Democratic counter independently counted all the votes for all the candidates, and wrote down their tallies on slips of paper the other counter couldn’t see. These tally slips were then given to the recorder. If they didn’t match exactly, the counters had to start over. If their next tally still didn’t match, that precinct was taken away from them and given to a different counting team.

    Every King County precinct was counted in this fashion at least 3 times, and some of them were counted 7 or 8 times.

    This process was conducted under strict rules. The counters were paid by the county ($12 an hour, if you’re interested) and put on the county payroll — they were made temporary county employees to subject them to the direct supervision of the election officials who supervised the recount process.

    No conversation was permitted between counters and observers or reporters. No one except counting teams and supervisors could cross the rope lines or approach the counting tables. No cell phones were permitted, and anyone caught with a cell phone in the counting room was evicted from the building for the remainder of the recount. The ballots were kept in a locked cage and guarded by armed sheriff’s deputies. The ballot boxes were secured with numbered seals recorded on tracking forms. When a box was opened to count the ballots, the counters had to sign these forms. When they finished counting, the ballots were put back in the boxes, new seals were put on, and the serial numbers of the new seals were written on the tracking forms, and the forms were signed again. Then the box went back to the guarded, locked, storage cage.

    Any counter could question any ballot for any reason. All he or she had to do was pull that ballot out of the stack and send it to the county canvassing board for a decision on whether the ballot would count and/or who the voter had voted for. The counters didn’t have to justify these decisions and could pull ballots on the slightest pretext or no pretext at all even when it was clear who the voter had voted for. Each of these ballots was individually reviewed by the canvassing board.

    Under this system, there was no way anyone could alter a ballot without being seen. There was no possibility of a miscount, because it’s virtually impossible for at least 3 different counting teams of 2 people each to have made exactly the same counting mistake at least 6 times. There was no way slip ballots into the pile, or take ballots out of the pile, without being seen — there were more observers than counters, so every counter had someone watching him/her all the time.

    King County was the last county to report the manual recount because it’s the largest county and counting its ballots took longer. King County had more than 2 1/2 times as many ballots to count as the next largest county. The counting teams had to hand-count nearly a million ballots at least 3 times. The whole process took about 2 weeks using dozens of counting teams.

    The election was NOT decided by the King County canvassing board, on which the Republicans had a reliable lackey in the person of Dan Satterberg. The canvassing board did not begin considering disputed ballots until about a week after the hand recount was completed, and at that point, Gregoire was already ahead. The only way Rossi could win was if he got more votes than Gregoire from the hundreds of votes to be resolved by the canvassing board.

    What actually happened was that Gregoire was 8 votes ahead of Rossi at the end of the hand recount, and the King County canvassing board gave all 3 candidates additional votes, but Gregoire netted 121 more from the canvassing board balltos, for a total of 129. At the end of the election contest trial, Judge Bridges subtracted 4 fraudulent votes from Rossi’s total, giving Gregoire her final margin of 133 votes.

    The Republicans made numerous allegations of fraud, but proved none of them in court. In fact, they admitted they had no evidence of fraud. What they tried to do, instead, was get the judge to use a statistical analysis to apportion approximately 1,100 votes cast by ineligible felons between the candidates for the purpose of adjusting the final totals. Naturally, they picked a statistical methodology that favored their candidate.

    Let’s look at those felon votes in a little more detail. First of all, Washington’s civil rights restoration statute in effect at the time of the 2004 election was so confusing even parole officers gave their parolees incorrect advice about their voting rights. All across the state, county auditors registered ineligible felons to vote because they and their staffs didn’t understand the law, either. These mistakes were made in every county. In addition, even the Secretary of State’s office couldn’t determine who was eligible to vote and who wasn’t. These were honest mistakes made by ex-felons who thought they were entitled to vote, not a scheme by any political party or candidate to pad their side’s vote total with illegal felon votes.

    Now let’s look at the GOP’s statistical argument. They wanted to use data from other states to demonstrate that ex-felons were more likely to vote Democratic than Republican. The problem with this is they used data from states with large minority prison populations. Washington has a far lower percentage of African Americans in its prison population than these states. So, the data used by the GOP was reflective of voting patterns in states very dmeographically dissimilar to ours. An examination of the 1,100 disputed felon votes shows over 90% of them were white males, and statistical data from our state and everywhere else indicates this population subset was far more likely to vote Republican than Democrat. This is borne out by anecdotal information; of the 10 ineligible voters who told news reporters who they voted for, only 1 (a female) voted for Gregoire, and the other 9 all voted for Rossi. Thus, instead of the felon vote favoring Gregoire, as the GOP argued in court and on the airwaves, the limited evidence we have shows 90% of them voted for Rossi.

    Judge Bridges properly rejected the GOP’s statistical argument because it was purely speculative. But he could have gone further and rejected it because the methodology was manipulated to create a false appearance of how Washington ex-felons voted. There not only was nothing to support the use of that methodology, it was demonstrably false.

    After the election, our Democratic governor and Democratic legislature immediately took action to make clean up the voter registration rolls, establish a statewide voter registration base, and clarify the ex-felon eligibility rules. Republicans had controlled the legislature for most of the decade preceding the 2004 election and had done absolutely nothing to prevent the problems that occurred in 2004. In the aftermath, they still did nothing constructive to prevent similar problems in future elections. Instead, they merely criticized King County election officials, who had no control over what the felon voting laws were, and threw up a snowstorm of abusive proposals designed to keep poor, elderly, and disabled people from voting.

    And that, as Paul Harvey would say, is THE REST OF THE STORY.

    And you, my friend, don’t know your asshole from a hole in the ground.

  88. 101

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Republicans commit election fraud, so naturally they assume we commit election fraud, too. We should. We could have saved tens of thousands of innocent lives in Iraq if we had stolen back the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections after the GOP vote suppression operatives and black box operators stole them.

  89. 102

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    How the GOP Disenfranchised Military Voters

    “A confidential campaign directed by GOP party chiefs in October 2004 sought to challenge the ballots of tens of thousands of voters in the last presidential election, virtually all of them cast by residents of Black-majority precincts.

    “Files from the secret vote-blocking campaign were obtained by BBC Television Newsnight, London. They were attached to emails accidentally sent by Republican operatives to a non-party website.

    “One group of voters wrongly identified by the Republicans as registering to vote from false addresses: servicemen and women sent overseas.

    “Here’s how the scheme worked: The RNC mailed these voters letters in envelopes marked, ‘Do not forward’, to be returned to the sender. These letters were mailed to servicemen and women, some stationed overseas, to their US home addresses. The letters then returned to the Bush-Cheney campaign as ‘undeliverable.’ The lists of soldiers of ‘undeliverable’ letters were transmitted from state headquarters … to the RNC in Washington. The party could then challenge the voters’ registration and thereby prevent their absentee ballots being counted. …

    “The BBC obtained several dozen confidential emails sent by the Republican’s national Research Director and Deputy Communications chief, Tim Griffin to GOP Florida campaign chairman Brett Doster and other party leaders. Attached were spreadsheets marked, ‘Caging.xls.’ Each of these contained several hundred to a few thousand voters and their addresses. A check of the demographics of the addresses on the ‘caging lists,’ as the GOP leaders called them indicated that most were in African-American majority zip codes. …

    “The Republican National Committee in Washington refused … to respond to the BBC discovery. … The party … refused to say why it would mark soldiers as having ‘bad addresses’ subject to challenge when they had been assigned abroad. … Setting up such a challenge list would be a crime under federal law. …

    “Soldiers sending in their ballot from abroad would not know their vote was lost because of a challenge.”

    Quoted under Fair Use; for complete article and/or copyright info see http://tinyurl.com/jv9nf

  90. 103

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @69 The state retirement fund balance changes constantly due to the daily fluctuation of stock and asset values, dummy!

    The retirement system issues an annual summary of fund balances as of Dec. 31 each year. As a state retiree, I get those summaries. I don’t see anything that concerns me. According to the most recent summary, the system is taking in more money than it is paying out. Asset values are currently depressed across the board, not just for the state retirement system, but for all investors. The state retirement system does not have long-term structural financial problems; it is more than 90% fully funded.

    By comparison, in the private sector, the majority of workers don’t have have company-funded retirement benefits, and of those who do, a goodly number of corporate retirement plans have gone bankrupt — dumping their obligations on the taxpayers — or are severely underfunded. It’s not unusual for a corporate pension plan to be funded at 50% of obligations or less. Washington’s retirement system looks flush by comparison to most private plans.

    To the extent the state pension fund is “underfunded,” Gregoire inherited that situation. The “underfunding” occurred during the years that Republicans controlled one or both houses of the legislature and refused to spend any money for the benefit of state employees. What we heard from Republicans was not that the pension system should be fully funded, but that all state employees should be forced to work for minimum wage. Between 1998 and 2004, state employees went 6 years without a cost-of-living adjustment to their salaries. Republicans controlled the state budget during that time by having veto power over it in the senate, which they held by a majority. The one time Dino Rossi helped write a state budget, he did nothing for the pension system or state employees; all he did was kick 40,000 poor kids off medical care. That’s how Republicans would run our state budget, and a lot of Washington voters want no part of that.

  91. 104

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    State employees always made their legally-mandated pension obligations in full. The pension fund fell below full funding when the Republican-controlled legislature cut corners by cutting back on the employer (i.e., state agency) matching contributions. Since these contributions are part of the employees’ compensation package, the Republican legislators in effect stole money from their employees. Of course, I’ve seen them do that in private enterprise, too. When a small business is on the financial ropes, often one of the first things the owner does is raid the employee pension fund for cash to pay creditors, and when the business goes belly up the employees are stuck with a worthless unsecured IOU.

  92. 105

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    What all this adds up to is that, to the extent the state retirement sysem has any “underfunding” problems, you won’t fix those problems by electing the party that created them in the first place.

  93. 106

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @91 “Dori Monson was just spouting on the radio that ‘We could cut the state budget in half and the people of Washington wouldn’t even notice the difference’.”

    That would be quite an accomplishment, as 45% of the budget goes to K-12 education, so if he intends to leave the schools intact he would have to eliminate 90% of state government functions to get to a 50% reduction. That means, among other things, closing down the Department of Corrections and releasing ALL of our state prison inmates.

  94. 107

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Is it fair to say Dori is a LIAR? Sadly, we have enough stupid people in our society to keep the GOP in business, and even more sadly, the votes of the ignorant asses who fall for these lies count just as much as those of informed and responsible voters.

  95. 111

    correctnotright spews:

    @91: thanks rhp – that is what dori monson does – spout with no facts to back out the crap coming out his mouth – way to fact check him into oblivion – but you will never get on his show to refute Dori – he is too scared and has his screeners kick off anyone who disagrees (unless they are mentally disables and on equal footing with him).

  96. 112

    PuddyPrick, The Fact Finding Prognosticator... spews:

    Correctnotright: The argument put forth is GWB broke FISA. Good deflection using the constitution.

    Puddy

  97. 113

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Must I remind y’all once again that Gregoire has played a “shell-game” with the State Finances. There is no “Rainy Day Fund” when the State Retirement Fund is underfunded by $5 BILLION per the 6/30/07 Annual Report AND with nearly $37 BILLION invested in Equities and markets down approx 10%, that is another $3.7 BILLION underfunded.
    Nice try on ignoring the shell-game dudes.
    But hey…keep dreamin’!!
    If you borrowed another $200,000 on your home equity and put the proceeds in the bank, would that mean you have a Rainy Day Fund?? Yeah and another $200,000 in debt that someone must pay off.
    Rossi has plenty of campaign fodder.
    I know of no one who voted for Rossi last time and is now a Gregoire fan.
    Isn’t is amazing that a State with so many anti-Military KLOWNS fail to connect the dots that Boeing, Microsoft & others have been the proud beneficiaries of War dollars.
    Also, the anti-builder KLOWNS fail to see how important the Construction Industry has been to State & Local Governments.
    Local Governments rely heavily on Sales Tax & Permits.
    Things are slowing down.
    Wait until the next State Economist Budget Forecast Revisions.
    The phoney-baloney Rainy Day Fund could evaporate overnight and we are still stuck with the $5 BILLION+ Underfunded State Retirement Fund…and all those new State Employees.

  98. 114

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @113 This broken record has already been refuted. The state pension system is not funded by General Fund revenues. All of its income comes from employee and employer contributions and investment income.

  99. 115

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Roger–
    You are wrong.
    Read the Comprehensive Annual Financial Report.
    In the Actuarial Section, one of the underlying assumptions is they assume an 8% Annual Return on investments. 8%.
    What happens if there is an 8% loss??
    Where does the contributions from General Fund State Workers come from Rog??
    THE GENERAL FUND!
    And why does the Democratic Governor & Democratic Legislature allow the “EMPLOYER” not to fully fund their Pension requirements??
    They could demand payment today if they wanted to.
    Nice try at spinning this===NO SALE ROG!