A new Washington Poll released today shows Democrat Dow Constantine leading Republican Susan Hutchison 47-34 in the race for King County Executive.
This is a reversal of previous publicly released polls, but is consistent with two private polls I’ve heard word of over the past week. It will be interesting to see if SurveyUSA, which has consistently shown Hutchison in lead, finds a similar reversal in their final survey, which I believe is due to be released later today.
The Washington Poll also shows Referendum 71 passing by a 57-38 margin, while Tim Eyman’s incredibly idiotic Initiative 1033 fails 40-49.
I’d say all of that is good news.
What’s idiotic is these polls are of registered voters, not likely voters. So they don’t mean much, if anything. Oops.
What’s idiotic is Orbusmax didn’t look at the results before writing that comment. The results are broken out into registered/likely/already. http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results.html
Well I certainly hope the Washington Poll is closer to the final results than some of the earlier Survey USA polling we’ve seen.
I wasn’t too worried about R71 passing but it’s felt like defeating I-1033 and electing Dow Constantine were uphill battles.
Yes, good news. Would be good to see a decisive repudiation of Kemper Freeman. Was just thinking this morning that I’ve been missing Darryl’s poll analyses in this election cycle.
I really doubt I-1033 will lose, and especially not by a wide margin like this poll reports. The Washington poll wildly skews results, see Governor’s race poll out in 2007.
Too good to be true?
It’s a bit off-putting when there are still almost 20% undecided in the KCE race, a mere week out from the deadline. Then again, the optimist in me (there’s one hiding there somewhere) still thinks that anyone who doesn’t love Susie already will find it difficult to go her way if they’re paying even the slightest bit of attention.
Jacob @5,
Um… but the governor’s race was held in 2008, so a 2007 poll is pretty pointless. A better comparison might be the Oct. 27 2008 Washington Poll, which showed Gregoire leading Rossi, 51-45. The actual results were 53-47.
I think what’s especially telling is the already voted columns.
R-71: Yes 55, No 45
I-1033: Yes 44, No 56
Didn’t see the already voted numbers for mayor or KCE…
N @6,
Agreed. I think one of the failings of the Hutchison campaign has been their inability to make people hate Dow. She just hasn’t been negative enough.
@5
Yes I must admit their results on I-1033 have me a bit suspicious though my own anecdotal experience tends to agree with their cross-tabs.
I don’t think I’ve spoken to a single woman who supports I-1033, even among fairly conservative family members. On the other hand a surprising number of men do, even people who are otherwise fairly liberal. Most of the time the supporters rant about some perceived boondoggle as the reason for their support.
One thing I found rather strange was the stronger opposition to I-1033 in Western Washington outside Puget Sound. Given the usual anti-tax bias of the less populated counties this seems a bit strange. I wonder if the result is skewed due to a small sample size?
@9
Goldy, I don’t think it is for lack of trying. But the usual wingnut scare phrases don’t really bother King County voters. I mean being a “partisan liberal tax-and-spend democrat” is almost a badge of honor here. She also couldn’t make R71 or I-1033 issues in the race since she’d get killed if she opposed R71 or supported I-1033.
Annecdotal of course…
My Puyallup living, Beck beleiving, tea-baggin’, 20%er, Fox viewing, all taxes are evil in-laws have figured out that I-1033 is a potential disaster and voted no.
I didn’t even try to get them on board with R71. I’ve had that conversation and it usually makes me want to punch one or all of them.
What does this mean?:
“Statewide sample = 724 registered voters, Seattle City oversample”
How many Seattle voters were sampled?
My fingers are still crossed, but it’s nice to breathe again…
DON’T LET UP. EVERY VOTE WILL COUNT.
There are STILL phone calls to be made and doors to be knocked. Fuse is running home based phone calls on Thursday to King County because of the crappy ballot. Sign up here:
http://www.fusewashington.org/.....ebcalling3
Why does “Progressive Electorate” refer to Loren Collingwood as “our resident pollster from Washington”. OUR??
Non-Partisan is a self-description of the Washington Poll. Anyone can call themselves “Non-partisan”
ylb can call himself “employed”…but if he doesn’t have a job, it doesn’t mean much.
Cynical @15,
You’re absolutely right: “Anyone can call themselves ‘Non-partsan’,” and it doesn’t mean squat.
You know… like Susan Hutchison.
Funny how mail-in ballots is changing the electoral dynamics.
You used to see the electoral cycle building to a crescendo the week before an election. Now politicians who try that are being told “you are wasting your money on late ads, over half the votes are already in the mail and 80% of the other half have already decided”. It appears to have taken the sting out of last-minute attack ads, since there is plenty of time for the opponant to respond effectively.
I’ve been seing sign waivers at intersections for an entire week now, and I expect to see them every day right up to the election. Campaigns organizing car-pools to get voters to the polling places are being replaced by phone calls reminding people to mail their ballots.
And the idea that any poll taken two weeks before an election could include what is in effect “exit polling” for those who have already voted?????
Goldy–
The Washington Poll sounds mighty official until you start diggin’ into the characters and the University of Washington being behind it.
Don’t bet your Beer Money on this poll being even close.
Send in your vote today.
Vote Dow Constantine and keep BIAW out of King Country government.
Of course this poll can’t be official if it shows the democrat in the lead, based on the past few debates it clear why the change happened. Hutch was shown to be another Palin.
Darn it – County!
Where’s the edit function today?
This is great news!!
The wingnuts are worried now..lol
I’m pretty sure Gig Harbor’s going to go No on R71. I haven’t heard much talk about 1033.
Wow, eastern WA is evenly split on R-71. That’s good news.
Somebody else has some questions about the sample size, and Eli Sanders got some answers:
(As an aside, Eli Sanders definitively answered the question whether Darcy Burner has a degree in economics from Harvard.)
http://slog.thestranger.com/sl.....ngton-poll
The Flyigg Spaghetti Monster is answering MY prayers and NOT theirs…YAYYYYYY!!! My religion can beat the fuck out of your religion….neener, neener.
Cynical @ 18: “Don’t bet your Beer Money on this poll being even close.”
Why do you make these stupid predictions? They just come back to bite you and make you look foolish. I suppose fools don’t mind showing off their true colors.
@20 If some stupid goatfucker named Klynical, Puddy or Marvin shows up spewing a load of hate in your direction it’s only because you and I share the same screen name.
27. proud leftist spews:
When Constantine beats Palin…errr…Hutchinson, R-71 is approved (even getting a slight MAJORITY in Eastern WA) and Little Timmy and his “Ticking Time Bomb” are dis-armed and consigned (FINALLY….PLEASE!!!!!) to the dust bin of history…
…I and really gonna ENJOY the bleatings from the right-wing klownservotards. What a beautiful day it will be. Kinda like the 2006 Congressionals. A great day to be an American and a great day to be a SANE Washingtonian.
@ 27,29
King County stole the election!
Worked last time…LOLOLOL
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.c.....?ref=fpblg
Wow.
http://thinkprogress.org/2009/.....id-pelosi/
Of course Puddy and the Cyniklown looooove them their Randall Terry. Yes they do!!
Cyn @ 18
But it’s not the football team, so the poll is still valid.
The important thing now is to encourage the radical remnant NOT to vote because their vote may be misused by the evil conspiracy.
I have been contacted by ^&7%$*** to perform a DNA analysis on all ballots that vote vs R71! This means that any red blooded reprican who is ever DNA tested will be identified and we will use the information against him!
Cynical,
What the fuck do you care about our local elections? It isn’t as if you live here.
Judging from these poll results, I’d say we need to expand capacity in state mental hospitals to accomodate roughly 34% to 40% of Washington’s voting population.
@9 Shhhhh … don’t give her ideas —
@12 You married into a Puyallup family? We should organize a wake for you …
@9…@38…
Oh, you think THAT’S not coming?
@15 “Anyone can call themselves “Non-partisan””
Yes, but we know which bin of partisans are calling themselves “nonpartisan” because their party label is damaged goods, don’t we?
@21 Don’t worry, we know what you meant. Your posts aren’t confused gibberish like puddy’s.
@27 You should ask Goatfucker if he bet against the dollar by buying gold, like he said he would a few days ago, and how that’s working out for him.
More news on the poll from Eli:
http://slog.thestranger.com/sl.....ngton-poll
Mr. Cynical @ 15
Still eagering awaiting your answer to this question:
In your libertarian utopia, who pays for election administration? The government? If not, then who?
Looking at the poll results, it seems young voters (ages 18-40) are the big cohort of undecideds in the county exec race, probably because they’re less tuned in to politics and therefore don’t know the history:
Step 1: Republicans push an initiative to make county offices nonpartisan;
Step 2: Republicans run a stealth candidate behind the “nonpartisan” cover.
When they figure out that Hutch is the moral equivalent of Mussolini, she’ll go down in flames. In fact, the more people know about her the less they like her, it seems. And this young cohort is the audience least likely to see, much less be swayed by, the irrational rantings of the Suzie Shill‘s editorial board.
36. Chris Stefan spews:
But I pay more taxes here than you Chris.
You are one of them “freeloaders” who pays little and gripes A LOT!
Man, I’m looking forward to our troll friends eating serious crow after this election!
@44 I think McGinn’s campaign collapsed when the tunnel issue did. He really didn’t give people other reasons to vote for him. So goes the perils of being a one-issue candidate …
I’m in sympathy with McGinn’s ideas, but as in Senn’s case, on behalf of underlings everywhere it’s hard for me to vote for someone with a reputation as an office tyrant.
@36 The Montana Goatfucker is still a Seattle slumlord who kicks widows and orphans out of their meager hovels if the rent is a day late.
That’s one thing I won’t do for money. Sure, I own stocks in dirty, polluting, Republican companies. But I’m not a slumlord and I don’t kick widows and orphans to the curb. I don’t fuck goats, either. I only fuck cute fluffy female rabbits.
What’s more, I don’t do any recreational fucking. Don’t have time for that. I fuck solely for procreative purposes. My mission is to populate this Earth with as many rabbits as humanly possible!
53. Roger Rabbit spews:
Actually Rog…the truth is you don’t because like Willie Nelson..
ROGER RABBIT HAS OUTLIVED HIS PECKER!
@54 Hahaha — go ahead and buy GOLD, goatfucker! Make my day!! Hahaha …
I don’t understand just why you fret so.
King County Elections will make sure Constantine wins.
You will be hard pressed to convince me otherwise.
Luckily, I don’t live in King County. Well partially ’cause Seattle & KC tend to fuck things up for the whole state.
Washington would be a forgotten backwater, unknown to the world, full of cousin fuckers, if not for Seattle and King County. Be careful what you wish for.
Backwater? Unknown? Cousin Fuckers?
It’s always about you isn’t it?
Cue violins
Oh why does the world not like us?
Oh why do the terrorists want to kill us?
Oh why can’t we all just get along?
Something tells me we’d get along just fine without KC and the so called Emerald City.
@58
Yea y’all would have a good ‘ol time competing with Mississippi and West Virginia to see which state could be the poorest.
Oh and for those who feel Seattle and King County get “more than their fair share” see just how much you get out in Omak without the subsidy you get from Seattle and King County.
@46 Roger R
Typical libtard rubbish and utterly unfair to Mussolini.
Suzie… simple, effeminate
Benito … devious, macho man,
Suzie … like bright colored uniforms
Benito … BLACK!!
Suzie … the oratorical skills of a newscaster
Benito .. the oratorical skills of il Duce
Suzie .. partisans wear Chinese made tee shirts
Benito .. partisans wear BLACK silk shirts
Suzie .. blonde hair, bobbed
Benito Black hair, short
Suzie … devoid of ideas
Benito .. full of ideas!
@47 Mr. Cynical offer to publish his tax forms for us all to admire.
re 1: “Likely Voters” is code for Republicans, because they tend to vote more often than Democrats, hence, they are more ‘likely’ to vote.
“Likely Voters”…. Sounds good, though it’s BS — right up your alley.
“Man, I’m looking forward to our troll friends eating serious crow after this election!”
Just reverting to trend. No big deal.
As for the trolls, they are totally lacking in humility, so you might as well ask goats to do the ballet.