This morning the Washington Poll released an expanded sample of their recent poll of Washington state voters. Their press release explains:
Last week (May 24) we released the results of an n=1252 survey, yet we continued to conduct additional surveys through Friday May 28th, and amassed a total of 1,695 interviews.
While there are some interesting results in this new release, particularly regarding the Teabagger element of the GOP Party, I’ll simply focus on the match-up between Senator Patty Murray (D) and perennial candidate Dino Rossi (R). I recently analyzed this poll with the original sample of 1,252 registered voters that went for Murray over Rossi 44% to 40%. The results suggested that Patty Murray was leading with an 86.5% probability.
The new results still have 44% Murray and 40% Rossi but now, with the larger sample, the uncertainty in the result goes down. In a Monte Carlo analysis Murray won 897,105 of 1,000,000 elections, suggesting that an election held now would be won by Murray with an 89.7% probability. Here is the distribution of outcomes:
A few days ago I did an analysis of the three polls in this race that were taken in May. The analysis gave Murray an 84.8% probability of truly leading the race. Doing that same analysis with the expanded Washington Poll ups Murray’s probability to 88.7%.
So, based on the available evidence, Dino Rossi is still losing to Patty Murray, but we can say this with a little more certainty.
(Cross posted at Hominid Views.)
Your analysis assumes the undecideds will break in the same proportion as the voters who have already made up their mind. In fact, undecideds tend to break against the incumbent. In addition, turnout should favor Republicans.
The bottom line is, if Sen Murray is at 44% in the last polls taken, she will lose.
Umm, no there is a primary first and the republicans have more acandidates in the primary.
Murray has no democratic challengers and the republican vote will be split more.
When the GE comes, some of those “motivated” teabaggers may not vote if their candidate loses.
Either way, the prediction that Murray will lose is pretty far-fetched. Rossi will take a hit in the primary either by trying to out-rightwing the other candidates and exposing his positions in the GE or he will have trouble getting the support of the other republicans voters in the GE if he sounds to moderate.
Either way, he is caged in by both sides and in trouble. He is underfinanced, has a late start and has a LOSER reputation.
Rossi will be lucky to make it out of the primaries and could be weakened by the time he gets out.
@1
You sure it’s going to be Rossi in November?
I think if you put Benton and Rossi on a stage together it would take Benton ten minutes (tops) for Benton to hand Rossi his ass.
The top 2 will be Rossi and Murray. Which is why those were the only two names included in this poll.
3
Rossi’s been handed his ass so many times he no longer has an ass to be handed.
Vance thinks Rossi will get over 60% of the undecideds, to squeek out a win at barely over 50% of the electorate? I’m skeptical.
Likewise, I think the voter turnout isn’t going to favor the Republicans in the numbers they hope. The mail-in-ballot has been a game changer in that regard. Candidates that hold back on TV spots until a day or two before the election have missed the bulk of the voting. Now working mothers with tight child-care pickup schedules can vote without sacrificing wages or time with their children.
Also, I think the polls are still under-counting Democratic strength. Polls can only contact voters with land lines. Most young people (30 and under) don’t have land lines at all. They tend to vote Democratic more than Republican of late.
Finally, although off-presidential year elections tend to favor the party out of power, turnout in this election is going to be pushed by an active initiative season. We’ve got the pot initiative, the income tax initiative, and Tim Eyman’s stepping back in with his own contributions. Turnout in the urban Puget Sound region tends to increase in a backlash against anything Tim Eyman is promoting, so perhaps Mr. Vance can thank him for his back-handed efforts to defeat Rossi.
It will, however, be interesting to watch Rossi try walk a tightrope between appealing to the Tea Bag interests on the far right, and trying to appear to be a “moderate” to the true independents in the center-right.
It’s like catching a ride to a job interview with your embarrassing brother-in-law. You know you can’t get there without him. But if the interviewer casts one look at him or his truck, you’ve lost the job anyway.
[Deleted — see HA Comment Policy
Josef…seriously, Dude, take your creepy Mary Lane fantasies to an Open Thread. This is your second warning — Darryl]
I dont think this Washington Poll means anything to anyone that knows the inside outs
of polling in this state. Especially if taken
by a University
@5
I’ve wondered how he stayed so thin!
But but but that can’t be. Why Peggy Nooner said in the WSJ everyone was going to blame Obama and the Dems for the BP spill.
Chris Vance @ 1,
“Your analysis assumes the undecideds will break in the same proportion as the voters who have already made up their mind.”
No. My analysis assumes that the undecideds are undecided. I very purposefully point out that the analysis only applies to an election held right now.
“In fact, undecideds tend to break against the incumbent.”
Maybe. I mean, that isn’t how it worked in Gregoire v. Rossi in 2008 or Cantwell v. McGavick in 2006. But this year could be different….
“In addition, turnout should favor Republicans.”
That could be. But Republicans sure have a lot of ground to make up, given that they are starting at a 28% to 35% disadvantage (via WA Poll) or even a 25% to 37% disadvantage (recent SUSA poll).
“The bottom line is, if Sen Murray is at 44% in the last polls taken, she will lose.”
She is at 44% in only one poll–the WA Poll. This large 16% undecided figure is, to some extent, an artifact of the survey method that the WA Poll uses. It isn’t reflected in the great majority of the other polls taken recently. For example, the two most recent Rasmussen polls had 5-6% undecideds and Murray is at 48% in both.
BTW: If you look at the “soft support” (those who are “undecided leaners” and those who say they could change their mind) in the WA Poll, Murray has 8% to Rossi’s 12%.
Empirically, it is not at all unusual for a Democratic incumbent to have difficulty breaking 50% in top-ticket statewide WA races. In Gregoire v. Rossi (2008), there were 29 publicly-released polls taken from 01 Mar to the election in Nov. Gregoire didn’t break the 50% mark in 23 of the 29 polls. Likewise, in 2006, Cantwell didn’t break the 50% mark in 18 of 21 polls from 01 Mar to 20 Sep (don’t have the polls after that handy, but I recall there was a big shit in Cantwell’s favor around the start of Oct).
[Deleted — see HA Comment Policy]
Steve,
“I dont think this Washington Poll means anything to anyone that knows the inside outs
of polling in this state.”
You don’t know what you are talking about.
Darryl–
How does this trend impact your analysis?
Tuesday, June 01, 2010
I do not believe these recent polls you cite fully represent the Tea Party impact that will be felt come November.
Darryl at #12:
Read this and this:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/....._get_i.php
http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm
Gregoire 2008 and Cantwell 2006 were below 50% early in the race, but were well over 50% in the final polls.
That’s the point. What this poll (and all the others) tells us is Murray is in trouble TODAY. It doesn’t mean she can’t come back; but it certainly doesn’t mean that she would win if the election were held now. In fact, she would probably lose if the election were tomorrow.
I’m still curious as to why Mr. Vance is so confident that it’s going to be Rossi facing Murray in Nov.
@15
If there’s a going to be a Tea Party effect, it seems to me that it would be in helping Benton get into the general election.
@14 “Steve” “You don’t know what you are talking about.”
Geez, I hope you know that’s not me.
@15 “I do not believe these recent polls you cite fully represent the Tea Party impact that will be felt come November.”
@15 Why? Don’t you hypocritical sore loser Republicans who are so angry that a black Kenyan-born commie-fascist Democrat is president ever answer the phone?
Results for Spokane County in 2004:
Patty Murray(D)
94446 47.0794%
George R. Nethercutt, Jr(R)
101511 50.6012%
The Republican’s are going to have to do a hell of a lot better than that if they want to win this time around. If Nethercutt, a home town boy, can’t consider his home county safe, how can an effete real estate salesmen from King County think he’s going to win big in The ‘Kan?
Results from Clark County 2004:
Patty Murray(D)
80134 48.3075%
George R. Nethercutt, Jr(R)
81888 49.3649%
At least Benton might be able to get some home town bounce and win Clark County by a safe margin.
It seems to me Republicans will need big wins in both Clark and Spokane counties if they want to win this thing.
Mr. Cynical,
“How does this trend impact your analysis?”
Not a whole lot, since what you copy (without proper attribution, I might add) is a national poll.
Let’s look at the most recent figures for Washington State. Two recent polls in Washington state give 28% Republican to 35% Democrat (WA Poll) and 25% Republican to 37% Democrat (SUSA).
“I do not believe these recent polls you cite fully represent the Tea Party impact that will be felt come November.”
Uh-huh. Like you were SURE Gregoire was going to lose the election contest? Like you knew in your heart of hearts that McGavick would take the hearts and minds of the Washington voters? Like you knew that Obama was going to get his ass kicked by McPalin? Like you could feel in your bones that Rossi would “get his turn” in 2008?
By any chance, are you a confidant of Bill Kristol? Or maybe Dick Morris?
Question is; does Patty Murry even know what this curve is; does she understand algebra, statistics, calculus..
yeah, i know, she doesn’t
righton @ 20,
ROTFL!!! Since when have you Wingding dumb fucks placed a premium on intellectual prowess?
(What next…righton arguing the scientific basis of global warming?)
Uh, sorry darryl; we wuz wanting ourselves a real senator, some woman dumber than even us hicks.
gotta get back to our newest favorite blog; minnesotans for global warming
oh yeah, reminds me of the newslcip tonight noting how Al Gore and his divorce is bad for the environment; every divroces cause 2x the house; or i guess w/ Al and his 8 homes, another 8 homes for Tipper.
Well considering Wa. is such a liberal state full of sancuary cities, with more gays than San Franciso, more crooked SEIU unionist’s and less true constitutionalist/patriotic Americans than any other state, Rossi will likely lose. But even if he actually won the vote, the way votes are counted he would STILL lose. I have to say I’m glad to be leaving.
Sure Darryl
23: ” . . . less true constitutionalist/patriotic Americans than any other state . . .”
You wouldn’t know the Constitution from a case of the clap. You’re also the kind of “patriot” who Mark Twain defined as he who shouts loudest about what he knows the least.
“I have to say I’m glad to be leaving.”
I have to say I can’t wait for you to be gone. Hope you’re going to Oklahoma or some such place. Better yet, I hope you’re leaving the country entirely, though I wouldn’t wish you on anyone. Don’t let the door hit you on the ass on the way out.
re 15: Since 2006, the polls you have been depending upon have been consistently wrong.
@23 hahaha
righton wants an intelligent Senator?
An idiot like righton who can’t even put together a logical argument or use critical thinking skills?
No – you deserve the diot republicans you supported like GWB and Reichert.
Murray is plenty smarter than those idiots. At least Murray has a Bachelors degree – Reichert could not even manage that.
I predict that Patty Murray wins in a wobble, after implants and lots of inhancement surgery. That’s how it looks to me.
Dont tell me I dont know what I am talking
about I have spent decades looking at polls that
mean something for candidates and their
campaigns in this state. They pay $7500 to 25,000 on many different types of polls. Polls are good when
you track voters …. The Washington Poll is
not a major Poll in this state.
@15: Dear absolute moron Klynical:
any way you cut it, the Tea party fools will HURT the republicans more than they help them.
They will alienate the midddle and drive out the few moderates that are left.
See Florida and other states.
You fools will be even further behind after the embarassment of the tea party xenophobic racists.
28; ok, patty got a home ec. degree from Wazzu; big whoopy. People who drive slowly thru Pullman get degrees.