Today was not a good day for R-71 supporters. With the 5th batch of data, the total of signatures examined is now 27,288 (almost 20% complete), with 3,695 invalid signatures found.
The number of duplicates has risen to 90. (Consider that there were only 7 found by the end of the first day, and you can see how the duplicate count snowballs as the sample grows.) Ninety duplicates in a sample of 27,288 reflects a duplicate rate of 1.67% in the total sample.
Using the methods described here, a good estimate of the number of valid signatures is 118,184, a shortfall of 2,393 signatures of the 120,577 needed to qualify the referendum for the ballot. The total rejection rate should be about 14.2%.
Here is the trend since the start of signature verification:
This graph shows the daily estimates of valid signatures (red) and the number needed to qualify (blue). What is most salient here is that the estimate of valid signatures is extremely stable from day-to-day. If the trend continues, R-71 fails.
Starting today, signatures will be checked in two shifts, with an update in the morning and the afternoon.
My insistence on not getting lazy too soon is not preventing me from enjoying today’s invalidation rate of 15%. Ohhhh, yeeeah.
The projected duplicate rate seems to be solidifying at around 1.7%. Adding that to each day’s non-voter rate and un-matched signature rate, the five days have invalidity rates ranging from 12.9% to 14.6%. The max that the R-71 supporters can absorb overall is 12.4%. Even if each batch has its own unique properties, but if we assume that these batches are chosen in some random way, the odds of having five consecutive “bad” days is pretty remote. And these five days are very bad for the R-71 supporters.
Rob, or Darryl, or whoever’s brain is functioning at the moment (not mine), if the failure rate stays at around 13.3% or so, how long do you think it’ll take to reach the golden 17,113th ? Or I guess we need a few more than that, to cover for the “Missing” signatures that might revert from Invalid to Accepted.
We can only pray that the righteous will kill gay rights and protect the God fearing from running out of the house and offering to blow gay log cabin Republicans.
Olympian concurs…71 is in trouble.
http://www.theolympian.com/sou.....33104.html