Another poll has been released in the race between real-estate salesman and two-time gubernatorial race loser Dino Rossi (R) and Sen. Patty Murray (D). The Survey USA poll has Murray leading Rossi 50% to 48%. The survey included 609 likely voters.
As has been noted for their previous polls, something is “off” with Survey USA for this race. N in Seattle (among others) noted their “Metro Seattle” crosstabs were abnormal in the previous poll. Goldy thinks they’re still not quite realistic.
As usual, I’m interested in what the poll has to say about who would win in an election held now. Following a million simulated elections of 609 individuals voting at the proportions observed, Murray wins 635,301 elections and Rossi wins 353,991 times. In other words, this poll provides evidence that Murray would have a 64.2% probability of beating Rossi right now. Here is the distribution of outcomes:
With this new poll today, we have had a total of four polls taken in September:
| Start | End | Samp | % | % | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | date | date | size | MOE | Dem | Rep | Diff |
| SurveyUSA | 19-Sep | 21-Sep | 609 | 4.1 | 50.0 | 48.0 | D+2.0 |
| Rasmussen | 14-Sep | 14-Sep | 750 | 4.0 | 51.0 | 46.0 | D+5.0 |
| CNN/Time/OR | 10-Sep | 14-Sep | 906 | 3.0 | 53.0 | 44.0 | D+9.0 |
| Elway | 09-Sep | 12-Sep | 500 | 4.5 | 50.0 | 41.0 | D+9.0 |
Murray has led in all four of these polls. In fact, she has earned at least 50% in each of the last four polls.
If we pool the respondents from all four September polls, we get a sample of 2,765 voters of which 2,658 went for either Murray or Rossi. Murray leads in the pooled sample 51.2% to 44.9%. Another Monte Carlo analysis gives Murray 991,344 wins to Rossi’s 8,375 wins. The evidence of these four polls indicate that Murray would have a 99.2% chance of beating Rossi in an election held this month.
Finally, here is the complete polling history for this race:
At this point, we can no longer debate whether or not Murray is vulnerable—there just isn’t much evidence for that. Perhaps the debate should turn to whether or not she will defeat Rossi by a single-digit or double-digit margin. Discuss.
I repeat — Murray by 11%.
i thought robert gibbs said polls are unreliable and shouldn’t be believed.
bring home the bacon and ship more weapons to kill the poor!
Why doesn’t Rossi just quit…. There aren’t enough brain dead nut cases to put him over the top in this state….. All them think tank generated, focus group tested talking points don’t measure up to REALITY when push comes to shove. You can keep your propaganda Fox Lies, Rush, and the rest of the right wing owned media. Rossi is a fraud, and every day more Washingtonians figure it out.
Our state is a bit smarter than most of the country (Oklahoma, Alabama, Nebraska, et al). The Dim just doesn’t resonate here. Sorry, Dino. Still, I understand that your benefactors will ensure your profitable retirement (from what, exactly?) because you took one for the team. Patty–you go, girl.
oh dear, people who like Patty Murray are really hard up. By the way, she keeps getting blonder…what’s up with that.
Worried about national debt, older Florida voters may turn against Democrats
Read more: http://www.kansascity.com/2010.....z10QWXxhhT
13,499 Trillion and counting…
I’m Counting till November…
By the way, righton keeps getting stupider…what’s up with that?
She will have a double digit win in November and the stronger she gets, the better things look in the 2nd, 9th and 3rd districts, too. I’m glad for that. She is running a smart campaign and Rossi is acting like a candidate who didn’t want to run and doesn’t want to win.
It will matter not in November, the Democrats are toast in 2010
This analysis is ridiculous. The most recent poll has *narrowedI the margin significantly, and your month-long sample size artificially includes larger margins for her. You leave out all of the polls in August which had Rossi ahead.
Senate
48 dems 46 rep
House
191 Dems 206 Rep
Governors
14 dems 28 rep
I will remind you again, not since 1930 has only one house changed that the other house did not follow.
The house of massive debt spending is falling
@ 11
Polls conducted two months ago don’t matter. What people think four months before an election does not matter. It only counts what people poll at during an election.
Rossi, being the same sort of nationalist/corporatist Bush and his giggling little gang of thieves were, will be smoked by 16% at least. This isn’t Florida or Texas, where people vote GOP reflexively, even if the candidate is an uncloseted pederast. They would proudly vote for Ted Bundy, knowing full well what he did in his spare time. Washington State is no such place.
@12
Who created that debt? 30 years of paying companies to ship our industrial infrastructure overseas to the country we are most likely to have to fight in the next ten years wasn’t a liberal thing, it was a republicrat thing. It was a Capitalist thing.
Real liberals like Dennis Kucinich and Paul Wellstone were warning us of this problem 25 years ago.
Dino Rossi is just another mealymouthed cheesedick, working for his capitalist masters, with his lips firmly locked on that center of mass on the bankers asses. Profit, at any and all costs except to themselves.
The working man is tired of this sort of politician.
If Congress does not vote on taxes before November, the people will.
Obama has wracked up more debt in two years and passed more bankrupting legislation like Obamacare, adding trillions to the debt, than any past president. We are drowning in Debt in this country!
Id, what were you doing when they aliens came and sucked out your brain? You call putting Bush’s needless wars on the budget, and taking measures to stop the 700,000 a month job losses “bad” you must be working for China, PHARMA, or Exxon. I’ll bet you are a lobbyist! You spew idiotic talking points like a lobbyist would.
Id, maybe your name is Dolly and you are the first cloned sheep! Baaaad taxes baaaaad. Baaaaa. Maybe you are WaMu’s former CEO trying to keep your millions!
Thank god we have Obama doing his best trying to clean up the damage of 30 years of voodoo, trickle down fraudulent economics has caused.
Taking care of the debt, the deficit, and the future is easy. Cut military rat hole waste, make the people making all the money and getting a free ride on taxes (corporations and billionaires) pay a little more and the debt will be paid off. Oh yes, actually tax imports like everyone else does, and close the Cayman Island – Dubai tax shelters. I bet Id doesn’t even know that letting the Bush Tax Deferments (not cuts) expire would almost balance the budget by itself. Wa wa wa…..
By the way if Bush didn’t do his tax deferments, and change Clinton’s framework our national debt would be zero today. Oh, I forgot. Clinton baaaaaad. Baaaaa. Baaaaaa. You know, the guy that horrible Clinton guy that created 22,000,000 jobs, and brought millions out of poverty, only to have Bush and his Republican Criminal friends and Wall Street looters put them back into poverty while no one was enforcing any form of regulation for 8 years.
And Id. If you get cancer, your insurer can’t cancel your insurance policy as of yesterday. You thanking your president for that? How about the fact that they can’t exclude a sick child from coverage on your policy any more?
Id, if you has a working brain you would be supporting Obama instead of trashing him. He has more courage than all the Republicans combined going back to Lincoln.
What ever you do, don’t ask Rossi what he would do to create jobs. Rossi and his friends are only interested in creating jobs in China. Don’t believe me? Name one thing the GOP has done in the last 20 years to create jobs here. I dare you.
(crickets chirping)
I know, I know. The easy answer is “invading and occupying Iraq” would qualify as an answer….. Just ignore the million casualties, and the 3 trillion it will cost….
Rossi, I hope you read this.
You are a fraud.
Your think tank generated talking points, targeting the average retarded Republican Voter won’t work here. Ever our retarded Republicans here are smart enough to understand you, and your party’s plan for the future is only to transfer the assets of the poor, and the middle class off to your rich friends, and unregulated corporations.
Why don’t you go back and profit some more off all them foreclosures your buddy Bush made available for you, and your bankster buddies. Calling you a piece of slime would be a complement Dino.
By the way, thank you Patty Murray. My dad was a vet, and you actually did “things” that actually helped him tremendously. I appreciate it, and so did he when he was alive. Keep up the good work!
16 Yes his opinion polls and November will tell the tale on his popularity…
@19, That statement will be archived, and remember, everything you say can, and will be used against you.
Id(iot) must have garnered his brimming confidence from his party’s Pledge to America (Plague on America). It’s such an inspiring document. It’ll easily catapult Rossi to victory.
re2:L I thought Robert Plant said that.
Same difference.
Heh..
“Agent Orange” unleashed the “Plague on America”..
Even the right wingers at Red State panned it.
@19 with trillions of dollars of concentrated wealth literally paying their media organizations to trash Obama, and lie about him non stop, just like they did Clinton, it’s amazing that anyone still likes our president.
Tell you what Id. Why don’t you go back to your cave, and turn on your tv that only gets Fox Lies, and your radio turned to Rush, and fill your empty head with more lies.
While yer at it go ahead and defend Bush some more! 6-7 trillion in new debt and not one single private sector job created in 8 years. And you want to complain about Obama. You should check in somewhere. You are obviously a danger to yourself and your country. You may have outgrown your straight jacket.
By the way, how did that contract on America turn out? Oh, I forgot. They failed on every point. Oh well… They let K-Street run our government, which was the real plan.
Reality isn’t really real if you refuse to accept it right Id? I just can’t see how you can hold your fingers in your ears at the same time you have your hands over your eyes.
Bush / Raygun = Good
Obama / Clinton = Bad
Just don’t look at the numbers….. Oh I forgot. Right wing tools obviously can’t count. Just think of the sucking sound, all them jobs going overseas your will hear if the Republicons were back in control. They obviously want America to be a 3rd world country with a small group of insanely rich gazillionaires running everything, and the rest of us living in squalor, pretending we are “free” or something. But wee got ower gunz astill Gomer!
Republican plan for future = carnage and death
Tell you what Id. Every penny in debt Obama racks up over the 1.3 trillion dollar deficit he inherited is his fault. Pennies. Not like he inherited a strong economy and a budget surplus like the one the last Democrat left his successor president…
Oh them facts. Them darn facts. Pleeeeze, no more facts. Id’s empty head may explode.
As far as I am concerned, voting for any Republican is an act of treason.
By the way, how is the search for Saddam’s WMD’s going? I guess they’re not under Bush’s chair!
I remember Saddam’s Al Qaeda policy? Shoot to kill…
re 25: The right wing meme is that the WMD’s were taken to Syria in semi trailers with ‘WalMart’ signs on the sides.
So, naturally, the Republicans were hesitant to bomb them.
@12 Id, I remind you that you are an idiot.
You only have 94 Dem + Rep senators. Who are the other six going to be? You also have 397 members of the House and 42 governors.
Also in 1980 and 1986 and 2002 the Senate changed hands but the House did not.
I wonder where the candidates will stand on this issue. “The Obama administration has urged a federal appeals court to allow the government, without a court warrant, to affix GPS devices on suspects’ vehicles to track their every move.
The Justice Department is demanding a federal appeals court rehear a case in which it reversed the conviction and life sentence of a cocaine dealer whose vehicle was tracked via GPS for a month, without a court warrant. The authorities then obtained warrants to search and find drugs in the locations where defendant Antoine Jones had travelled.
The administration, in urging the full U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia to reverse a three-judge panel’s August ruling from the same court, said Monday that Americans should expect no privacy while in public.”
Read More http://www.wired.com/threatlev.....z10TRhVCvB
13,499 Trillion and counting…
But you are including all of the debt, and interest on debt, that previously was held prior to January 21, 2009. You know, that nearly $5 trillion Bush added, plus the $8 trillion more over the next decade due to adding in the cost of wars and the massive interest just on his share of the national debt. Oh wait, you have no intention of being accurate or honest.
@29 What really sucks is the fact that the projected budget surplus Clinton handed off to Bush when he left office was supposed to pay off the entire national debt in as little as 7 years. Then Bush and his buddies needed their “cut” and well now we’re at 13 trillion and counting.
What’s really great is the right wing feces machine has been selling the “taxes are bad government is bad” to all their brain dead sheep for so long, that “conservative” piles of walking human feces would rather drown their children than pay one penny more in taxes even if it means America would cease to exist.