Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) is facing re-election and a new Elway poll takes the pulse of the electorate. Josh at Publicola writes.
First the bad news for U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell, who’s up for reelection next year: A new Elway poll finds her “Job Performance” rating at 52 percent “negative” to 42 percent “positive.” (It was nearly the exact opposite in 2005, also a year out from reelection, when her numbers were 52 positive vs. 38 negative.)
The good news?
The GOP doesn’t have any promising challengers. In Elway’s imaginary open primary against a batch of Republicans including: U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert; former KIRO TV anchor Susan Hutchison; Tea Party activist Clint Didier; and Port Commissioner Bill Bryant—Cantwell wins big with 47 percent of the vote.
And that pretty much guarantees Cantwell a spot on the November ballot.
You may recall that Cantwell beat Mike McGavick 56.9% to 39.9% in 2006. Clearly, she can do a lot worse in 2012 and still come out on top. And as flawed as McGavick was, it is not clear that the Republicans have anyone better in the wings. Let’s explore some other polling results for Cantwell in order to better frame the Elway poll.
Survey USA has collected a series of polls from May 2005 until the last poll taken from 16-18 April 2011:
On May 10 of 2005, the first poll on the graph, Cantwell had an approval of 45% and a disapproval of 35%. The most recent poll has her at 49% approval to 40% disapproval. The spread is about the same, but her approval and disapproval are higher in the recent poll because there are fewer undecided folks now.
Clearly, after that May 2005 poll, Cantwell’s approval increased dramatically and stayed relatively high until the Summer of 2009. Since then Cantwell’s approval has been more volatile. Six of the last 20 polls since then show her with higher disapproval, but with an overall trend of a higher approval. And given the absence of a strong opponent on the horizon, I am simply unwilling to fret over a single Elway Poll….
Part of her problem is the fact that she sits on some unspectacular committees: Energy And Natural Resources, Commerce, Science & Transportation, Finance, Indian Affairs and the Committee on Small Business & Entrepreneurship. All of these, while critical to the Senate process, are not really go-getter positions from the point of the public. She’s competent, the farmers like her, and her position on the Energy And Natural Resources Committee puts her in a spot to do for the major extraction industries in the State, which she has pretty consistently.
She’s not a great environmentalist, although she leans toward conservation and preservation of natural resources and has been amongst the most outspoken on the Senate floor for moving the economy toward renewable energy resources such as solar power. On the transportation Committee, she’s pushed for funding of light and heavy rail, including the interstate high-speed rail system thats being set up to make it’s way through the federal funding process. She likes Amtrak, has proposed expanding it’s reach and has helped keep it funded.
She’s not terribly outspoken and it is my understanding that she shuns publicity and would rather be doing actual work, rather than spouting platitudes and rhetoric in front of the cameras.
I’d vote for her again.
It would help if she pushed to bring the troops home from the nations around the world and bring an end to these wars the politicians have got the nation into.
Yes!!!
How come they didn’t run Cathy McMorris Rodgers’ numbers?
Never mind, if they’d run her numbers they wouldn’t have looked that stellar. But that would be misleading. The model for a Republican to win a state wide office is (or at least the one we need to worry about here is) don’t lose big in the Puget Sound Basin and win big outside it. We know that McMorris Rodgers’ can win big on her own in Spokane County. With help from Doc Hastings she can pull off a big win in The Dry Shitties and Yakima. With Help from Jaime Herrera and Colonel Sanders (AKA Don Benton) she can pull big wins in the Vancouver area. And that my friends the overwhelming majority of the state’s population outside of the Puget Sound Basin.
McMorris Rodgers is the one to watch out for.
Dave Reichert Needs all the help the NRCC can give him to hold onto his seat, in a district where he’s been chummy with the media since his days as sherrrifff, and facining off against political neophytes with zero name recognition. He’s barely familiar with the issues in his own district let alone Vancouver or Spokane. Reichert can’t win a state wide race.
Cathy McNorris Rodgers like George Nethercutt may looked like a good candidate for the GOP, but they are already at a disadvantage being from the Eastside of the Cascade Curtain, not having the connections to the Puget Sound suburbs that made Dino Rossi a credible challenger..
If the WASHGOP wants to have a serious bid for the 2012 WA Senate seat, they need a someone more in the Slade Gorton mold, stymies fundraising east of Lake Washington, prays that the King County vote is more like 60/40 than 65/35 or god forbid 70/30 for the Cantwell.
What plays well in Eastern Washington doesn’t play well in the eastern burbs on the westside of Cascade Curtain..
Reichert would get pummeled if he ran, given the questions of his head injury, and he was never the sharpest knife in the drawer to begin with.
@5
It depends on the model. What I posted @3 is the Slade Gorton model. I’m not convinced McMorris Rodgers could pull it off, but I wouldn’t rule her out.
Michael @ 3
I have to agree with you. In fact, I will give McMorris Rodgers a 2 point advantage, if she gets enough money to let voters know who she is.
McMorris Rodgers has a more ideal advantage on the gender issue, than any other candidate the Republicans could reasonably dream up. She is the mother of two small children, her oldest having significant special needs. And she is married to a retired Naval officer.
On the other hand, McMorris Rodgers has a very safe district, enabling her to get re-elected time and again, and spend more time with her precious children. She is the highest ranking Republican woman in the House, and I would predict her becoming Speaker or Minority Leader within the next 10 years. So why would she run for the Senate?
Since she is part of the Senate Majority power she can CHOOSE what committees she wants to join. I think it’s her own fault. So you think Mrs. Tennis Shoes relegated her to those unspectacular committees? Maybe, who knows.
I bet the senate will attempt to create some unspectacular committee laws to make her look good between now and 2012.
Maria Cantwell is a very moderate, hardworking, dedicated servant of this state. She is free of scandal and listens to constituents of all stripes. Aside from the wingnut, partisan fringe, I cannot understand why someone would disapprove of her performance.
Agreed with @1 and @9. I’m generally less moderate than Cantwell, but I agree with her on many key issues and recognize her as someone with a lot of knowledge and integrity.
@7
Everything is hypothetical at this point. I mentioned McMorris Rodgers because she hadn’t been mentioned and I think she could give Cantwell a run for her money. I haven’t seen anything that said she was thinking about running.
Cantwell might be vulnerable if the GOP would run a credible candidate against her. However, while they might have been expected to do such a thing in years gone by, now we’re dealing with the same party that’s going out of its way to rationalize Donald Trump and Michelle Bachmann as credible candidates for POTUS.
@12
Yeah, we should rename the GOP short list the itty-bitty-teeny-tiny-list.
It’s probably an anti-incumbent mood. People are hurting and they’re going to take it out on whoever’s in office. They don’t stop and think — they’d be hurting a lot worse if GOPers were still in charge of the economy.
Spot crude prices dropped almost 10 bucks today. That should help pump prices, which will put consumers in a friendlier mood. A one-day 8.6% drop in oil prices just might render this poll obsolete.
Newsweek has a couple of articles worthy of your attention this week.
Item #1: Why The Super-Rich Pay Half The Taxes We Do
http://www.newsweek.com/2011/0.....-rich.html
Roger Rabbit Commentary: Because they get coddled with special capital-gains tax rates, that’s why. Don’t tell me there isn’t room to raise taxes on the rich. The rich have never had it so good. They’re paying the lowest-ever taxes.
Item #2: The Great Inflation Of The 2010a
http://www.newsweek.com/2011/0.....shock.html
Roger Rabbit Commentary: Newsweek finally calls bullshit on the government’s official inflation numbers and states the obvious: We have double-digit inflation. It doesn’t show up in the CPI (or Social Security checks) because the government is gaming the numbers.
Don’t worry, deficit hawks, the federal government won’t go bankrupt. It can cut the debt in half without cutting spending or raising taxes. All it has to do is chop the value of a dollar in half and — voila! — it owes half as much money to its creditors. With a 12.5% inflation rate that takes only four years. You think Bernanke doesn’t know what he’s doing by tripling the money supply since 2008? He knows exactly what he’s doing.
Inflation is also a great way to cut real wages and raise taxes on the middle class (via bracket creep) — which is why Wall Street likes it so much.
@15
Sounds like what we have here is a return to sanity.
Puddy agreed long ago Roger Rabbit. QE, QE2. Search the databaze yelling loser boy.
Look at McMorris-Rodgers voting record:
http://www.govtrack.us/congres.....son=400659
Yes to restart offshore oil leasing
No federal funding for abortions (although that is already the law)
Defund NPR
Defund Planned Parenthood
Against The Affordable Care Act
She voted for Ryan’s kill medicare Budget Bill
She misses the votes that could come back against her like repeal of don’t ask don’t tell
and that is just a few minutes of checking her record.
She is way too far right for Western Washington and if her voting record was more publicized she would be too far right for Spokane.
@21
Yep! But, unfortunately reality and voting don’t always go together.
She won Spokane County by 60.84% last time around and by 59.25% the time before that. She’s been in congress since 2004 and was in Olympia before that. People know exactly who and what they’re voting for.
@20 What makes you think we agree on QE1? Search the databases, puddytat …
@21 “Defund Planned Parenthood”
This from someone who voted for an administration that spent $1 billion preaching abstinence to teenagers.
Just so it’s clear, @24 refers to McMorris-Rodgers, not the commenter @21.