Further analysis of the King County Executive race

The non-partisan King County executive race has proud Democrat Dow Constantine squaring off against bashful Republican non-partisan Susan Hutchison. Last week’s Washington Poll gave Constantine a 47% to 34% lead over Hutchison.

A new King-5/Survey USA poll released today essentially confirms last week’s findings. The poll of 614 likely or actual voters gives Constantine a 53% to 43% lead over Hutchison with 5% undecided.

As usual, I’ll use the poll numbers and sample size to assess the probability of each candidate winning (methods are given here). The Monte Carlo analysis of a million simulated elections gives Constantine 962,298 wins and Hutchison 35,378 wins. That is, the poll result provides evidence that Constantine will win Tuesday’s election with a 96.5% probability. Hutchison has a 3.5% probability of winning. Here is the distribution of outcomes from the simulated elections:

KC_execSUSA02Nov

The red bars are wins for Hutchison, and the blue bars are Constantine wins.

This is the first big test since last November’s initiative made the Executive a non-partisan position. And it sure looks like the electorate won’t be fooled by this non-partisan stuff.

Comments

  1. 1

    SJ spews:

    I do not think the non partisan issue would have been all that big if Sarah Susan had just been honest about it

  2. 2

    SJ spews:

    For those wishing a free dinner …

    Election Night Celebration

    Those who have been supportive and/or worked on the REJECT R-71 effort are urged to join with us on Tuesday, November 3rd as we anxiously await the early returns for Referendum 71. This will be an evening to honor our campaign leaders and volunteers. We could not have fought this David vs. Goliath contest without you, so please plan on joining with us on Election Night, November 3rd!

    Meet Protect Marriage Washington coalition leaders Larry Stickney, Senator Val Stevens, Pastor Ken Hutcherson, State Rep. Jim McCune, Steve Pidgeon, Russell Johnson, Maureen Richardson, Pastor’s Roy & Valerie Hartwell, Lisa Shinn, Dr. Bruce Craswell and many others.

    Date: November 3, 2009

    Time: 6:30 pm – 10:00 pm

    Place: Holiday Inn – Downtown Everett (3105 Pine St Everett, WA 98201)

    *hors d’oeuvres and beverages will be served

    Entertainment by “Stars and Stripes” musical group (7:00pm – 7:25) to be followed by a short program

    8:00pm announcement of first election returns

    Please RSVP (ASAP!) to R71@ProtectMarriageWA.com This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it or call 360-631-1894

    EVENT IS FREE

  3. 4

    SJ spews:

    More Good News

    Join SJ at Susan’s victory celebration at the Bellevue Hyatt (900 Bellevue Way NE) on election night (several other campaigns, including the 1033’s leader Eynman promise to ocme) are going to be there too, making it much easier for all our supporters — having one big party is better than having lots of little ones).

    All non partisans are welcome.

  4. 7

    X'ad spews:

    Ah. Satire (wait, didn’t Bill just croak?) So I can stop inhaling the ammonia. Good.

    You had me there for a moment.

  5. 8

    Luigi Giovanni spews:

    Daryl, David and you predicted R-71 wouldn’t make the ballot (I support R-71). Don’t you think you’re hubristic?

  6. 9

    Jarvis spews:

    You can bet I’m headed to the Hyatt. Might as well get a free meal curtosy of the wingnuts! ;^)

  7. 10

    Empty Suit Obama spews:

    Dow Constantine is a sexual predator and will cost this county’s taxpayers money.

    Vote Hutch and lose the crutch (constantine)

    We can’t afford to have a sexual predator run King County.

  8. 11

    SJ spews:

    @10 now now …

    Until now SJ News has been quiet about this but our sources at KIRO have told us some very unsavory stories about the casting couches down there.

    Now, we have no reason to imagine that the loverly, if somewhat deficient journalistic-ally, amnchor host of them thar days was qu7laified in this area of show biz, but given how the low morality of MSM, perhaps she should be asked?

  9. 12

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @2 I’d go for the free food if I didn’t already have an appointment with “maggie” at Montlake Ale House for tomorrow night.

  10. 13

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @3 SJ’s idea is to send a bunch of pro-71 liberals over there to scarf their free food. It’s a good idea, but you need a cast-iron stomach, otherwise you won’t be able to keep the food down while hanging around with the bigots and listening to their bigoted speeches. Expect plenty of victimhood themes in the speechmaking.

  11. 15

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @4 I’m gonna miss seeing ya at DL, Steve, so eat hearty! And don’t let your conscience bother you — if Dunmire can afford to spent $2.7 million on rightwing initiatives, he can afford to feed a humble public servant like you.

  12. 16

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @5 Maybe you can even score a 1-night stand with a pretty Republican woman — if there are any.

  13. 17

    k spews:

    ESO if there were a shred of truth in the allegations of Dow’s misconduct, they’d be out there. We only have amoral liars like you spouting BS.

  14. 19

    X'ad spews:

    14. Mr. Cynical spews:

    So I guess more will come out about Dow K and his pick-up lines to employees after the election, huh?

    Here are the notes KLOWNS..

    http://docs.google.com/filevie.....#038;hl=en

    Dow K==Dow Kreepy

    Give her drinks, tell her she is attractive..
    Go Dow baby!

    I suppose you think we are going to believe anything posted by you?

    You are even dumber than I thought….and that’s going a long way.

    But, then, you drink the Rasmussen koolaid, and worship @Rush and Faux news.

  15. 20

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @14 Given that all you guys have so far is Mark Griswold floating a rumor, I wouldn’t count on that overly much, if I were you.

    Oh, and btw, here’s Griswold posted on Sucky Politics after the 2006 election:

    “Congratulations Speaker Pelosi, now let the bombs fall where they may. My prediction: terror attack on domestic soil passenger aircraft within the next six months. Casualties in the 2-300 range. And, unfortunately, maybe that’s just what we need. It’s obvious people don’t remember what happened 5 years ago. Posted by FullContactPolitics at November 8, 2006 10:52 AM”

    http://blog.usefulwork.com/cgi.....ry_id=7430

    (Emphasis added; Griswold was identified as “FullContactPolitics” by Richard Pope, who found an SP comment that Griswold signed with both his screen name and real name.)

    Oh — you didn’t know that Griswold is a terrorist-hugger who hopes Americans die? Well, as Paul Harvey would say, “Now you know the rest of the story!”

  16. 21

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @17 It’s worse than a lie. It’s a disinformation campaign being conducted by a terrorist-hugging traitor who wants innocent Americans to die.

  17. 22

    doggril spews:

    Geez, Goldy, can’t you attract higher quality trolls? The ones you have are terrorist sympathizers, liars and rumor mongers. On top of everything else, they can’t even fucking spell (either that or they’re too stupid to locate the “c” key on their keyboard).
    I say trade the whole lot of ‘em in for whatever you can get for them. No matter what it is, you’ll be getting the better end of the deal.

  18. 23

    spews:

    Luigi Giovanni

    “you predicted R-71 wouldn’t make the ballot (I support R-71).”

    I’m not sure what you are talking about. My last post before it qualified, as well as the post before that, pointed out that it WOULD qualify.

    Before that, after the SOS office announced a third-phase check, my projections changed to “will most likely qualify.

    “Don’t you think you’re hubristic?”

    I don’t believe so. I’ve merely presented the results of a poll, and with minimal commentary. Seems like a pretty ordinary thing to do.

  19. 25

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @24 I don’t think you’ll have any problem, SJ. You should easily pass for a Republican if you wear a tie. They won’t notice the beard and long hair unless you carry a camera and take pictures.

  20. 26

    Dr Lemming spews:

    With all due respect, I still don’t see the logic of applying a Monte Carlo analysis to poll results.

  21. 27

    ArtFart spews:

    Now that we’ve gone to elections-by-mail, election night parties are pretty dumb. The outcome of most races, even if they aren’t at all close, won’t be known until nearly the end of the week.

  22. 28

    spews:

    Dr. Lemming,

    “With all due respect, I still don’t see the logic of applying a Monte Carlo analysis to poll results.”

    It fun to do!

  23. 29

    ArtFart spews:

    @11 EWWWWWWWWWWWW!

    I’m flashing on Lloyd Cooney and Ken Hatch from Hutchison’s early days there, and just….EWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!

    Let the projectile vomiting commence.

  24. 30

    X'ad spews:

    26. Dr Lemming spews:

    With all due respect, I still don’t see the logic of applying a Monte Carlo analysis to poll results.

    I think it’s probably easier than the Luxembourg Transform….

  25. 32

    correctnotright spews:

    @14: Klynical – Once again, Klynical is spreading baseless rumors (see Publicola for the real story).

    In my book (and the good book too), that is called slander. When do we get to stone Klynical to death for slander? according to the “biblical” interpretation, Klynical would get stoned to death – clearly, Klynical is a hypocrite and a fool.

  26. 33

    The Totally Holy and ArchtalibanicalKkklitoris spews:

    I KNOW WHAT IS RIGHT

    God Tells ME! He loves ME more than he loves you swine.

    And I have the Franchise for JUDGHEMNENTALISM here…..

  27. 35

    Harry Tuttle spews:

    Pretty amazing that the trolls here think Dow Constantine should behave like a hermit monk.

    My gosh, he said someone looked good in red!

    How about if he complimented her on her nun’s habit, but that’s another matter.

  28. 37

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Dow has a live-in girlfriend he shacks up with.
    Interview her about her main man’s escapades.