|100.0% probability of winning||0.0% probability of winning|
|Mean of 369 electoral votes||Mean of 169 electoral votes|
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 270 to 168 electoral votes (on average). With the addition of 17 new polls in 13 states today, Obama slips by one electoral vote.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 369 to McCain’s 169 electoral votes. There is solid evidence to suggest that Obama would win an election held today with near certainty. He is back to “only” a 100 electoral vote surplus.
Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.