Election Scorecard

100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 369 electoral votesMean of 169 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 270 to 168 electoral votes (on average). With the addition of 17 new polls in 13 states today, Obama slips by one electoral vote.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 369 to McCain’s 169 electoral votes. There is solid evidence to suggest that Obama would win an election held today with near certainty. He is back to “only” a 100 electoral vote surplus.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ.The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.


  1. 2

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    O-blah-blah will win…but it will definitely tighten up.
    17% of voters still say they can be swayed….that tells me O-blah-blah has not closed the deal. In the end, the MAJORITY of those swayable will lean toward McCain’s experience & record…vs. taking a chance on a well-intentioned, well-spoken guy with questionable judgment on who his pals are.
    But O-blah-blah will win….it will be closer than Darryl currently shows though.

  2. 3

    HappyHeathen spews:

    The bigger question is IF McCain can convince his base he is still running. He has run such a fractured campaign it’s hard to tell. And that Palin thing! Bad mistake. Bad! Bad! Bad!

  3. 4

    Ekim spews:

    Keep on hoping, MrC, who knows pigs may learn to fly.

    SurveyUSA News Poll #14607 looks very bad for Grumpy.

    Obama the clear winner: 56% to 28%
    Obama more truthful: 56% to 32%
    Obama better vision of America’s future: 62% to 31%

    It all didn’t go Obama’s way, Grumpy got this one:
    Grumpy more angry: 70% to 15%

  4. 6

    correctnotright spews:

    @2: Remedial english for wingnuts:

    Guess you will have to learn to spell Obama now. Voters have already decided – the risky choice is McCain. Continuing the failed Bush policies is too risky and McCain is running a third grade level campaign and has been completely outclassed. The selection of Palin only confirms the incompetency of the McCain campaign.

    Oh, and that Acorn nonsense. Why was McCain the guest of honor at an Acorn event in 2006 and praised them as a great organization. The best refutation of the nonsense McCain spews IS McCain himself. Hypocrites are just so mouth wateringly STUPID!
    Link: http://www.salon.com/politics/.....ain_acorn/

  5. 7

    rhp6033 spews:

    Nevada’s back in the pale blue, but West Virginia is undecided again?

    Only other undecideds are Missouri and North Carolina.

    And Colorado has a mighty strong color of blue right in the middle of the west.

    A month ago the conventional wisdom was that the candidate who wins is the one who takes at least two of the three states consisting of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Right now it looks like McCain’s got an uphill battle to get ANY of them.

  6. 8

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    From Today’s Rasmussen:

    Thursday, October 16, 2008
    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. It’s the first time since September 25 that McCain’s support has reached 46%.

    Like I have been saying, this race will tighten up. I still think O-blah-blah will win…but probably by 2-3 points. If the race tightens beyond that, it is possible O-blah-blah could win the popular vote & lose the Election. Wouldn’t that just make you KLOWNS go nuts!….I mean NUTTIER!!

  7. 9

    Daddy Love spews:


    You’re knda weird. What’s all this about:

    the race tightens beyond that, it is possible O-blah-blah could win the popular vote & lose the Election.

    I mean, do you just not know anything, or what? Here is a question that you can nswer to support your ridiculous theory.

    1. Name the states that went for Bush in 2004 in which Obama is currently leading that will turn around and go for McCain, and why. You do know, don’t you, that McCain must win ALL OF THEM to win the election?The current list is CO FL IA MO NV NM ND OH VA

    I’d ask you to name the states that went for Kerry in 2004 in which John MCCain is currently leading, but there aren’t any. Given Obama’s lead in so many states, what is more likely is that the popular vote will be close but the electoral vote count will be anything but.

  8. 10

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Daddy Love–
    That’s what makes this sooooooo much fun.
    Opinions are like a$$holes. everyone has one.
    I could challenge which polls you are relying on. Some of those state’s you assume are safe, may not be.

    It may not even become an issue. But if O-blah-blah only wins by 1 point on the popular vote, I guarantee the Electoral vote will be tight. That’s all I’m saying.

    If O-blah-blah wins popular by 2 or more….he will win the Electoral.

  9. 11

    Daddy Love spews:

    I guess I won’t wait for you to answer the question.

    But I’ll predict a 50 electoral vote spread. Or better.

  10. 12

    blue john spews:

    Dow Change: Up 401.35 (4.68%)
    The news reports say it’s just volatility, but I would like to think that it’s because the markets are anticipating an Obama presidency and his plans to improve the economy for everyone, not just the top 2%. Because more people think that Obama has a better vision of America’s future.

  11. 13

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    50 spread is a whole lot smaller than things apparently look right now.
    So you apparently think things will tighten up too.

  12. 14

    Tlazolteotl spews:

    hat’s what makes this sooooooo much fun.
    Opinions are like a$$holes. everyone has one.

    And they all stink, but especially yours.

    Seriously, Mr. Cynical has “the math” even though he probably couldn’t pass the 10th grade WASL. Never mind. Darryl has “the math” and is showing you it.