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Election Scorecard

by — ,


Obama McCain
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 369 electoral votes Mean of 169 electoral votes


Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 364 to 174. With thirteen new polls in eleven states being released today, Obama gains enough electoral votes for a 100 vote victory margin. After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 times, and he receives (on average) 369 to McCain’s 169 electoral votes. If an election had been held today, Obama would have won with nearly 100% certainty.

Today’s big surprise poll was in North Dakota: a +2% lead for Obama in a Forum Poll from Minnesota State University Moorhead. You would be excused for viewing the poll with skepticism—the previous two polls are from mid-September and give McCain +13% and +9% leads. Even so, the result must be inducing ulcers and gnashing of teeth in the McCain Camp. I can almost hear Sarah Palin crying, “Say it ain’t so, Fargo!”

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ.The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Comments

  3. 3

    My 83 year old mother in law, who has voted Republican all her life, is voting for Obama this time around.

    She just does not believe Sarah Palin could be president.

  5. 5

    I just noticed that the only states “solidly” red are Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Texas, and Alabama. Five states.

    Even Alaska is “pink” (leaning McCain).

    Not many undecideds left: Missouri, N. Dakota, and Main, from what I could tell of the map. They aren’t going to change much.

    In short, there’s no way for McCain to win except to take back several big states which are currently marked as “lean Obama”, and to keep everything he has. He HAS to take back Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and some more (Illinois????).

    With only three weeks to go, it would take a big “October Surprise” to change the math now.

    The only thing I can think of which would be big enough to change the map is if Bin Laden had already been captured in Afganistan, and they were to smuggle him into Iraq where McCain would fly for a tour, and McCain would personally search a house and “find” him hiding in a closet there, as cameras rolled.

    (Somewhere, there is a Republican operative thinking “Hey, there’s an idea – where can we get an Osama look-alike? It doesn’t have to hold up to scrutiny long, we’ll have it happen the day before the election, by the time the ruse is discovered the election will be over”.)

  6. 6

    Not much choice this time around: a moonbeam Neo-socialist or an aging crony capitalist.

    I’ll stick with writing-in Ron Paul.

  8. 8

    @6: Great PI
    At least your vote won’t count for McCain. I would just love to hear how that idiot Ron Paul would fix the current banking crisis. I can just hear him now:

    1. No bailout – let the worldwide economy fail
    2. No regulations on banking – 20 years from now, after the worst depression in history, the excesses of the free market will fix themselves.

    What a freekin’ idiot. Did anyone here Angela Merkel – the conservative German President on NPR today – the excesses of the market have almost sunk the world economy. Governments HAVE to fix the problems and it is the reposnsibility of governments to ensure that their people do not starve. The days of the 1800’s philosophy of free markets are long gone and this is the last nail in the coffin of that stupidity – long live Teddy Roosevelt and the trust busters (he had to leave the republican party to bust the monopolies too).

  9. 9

    @6: Great PI
    At least your vote won’t count for McCain. I would just love to hear how that idiot Ron Paul would fix the current banking crisis. I can just hear him now:

    1. No bailout – let the worldwide economy fail
    2. No regulations on banking – 20 years from now, after the worst depression in history, the excesses of the free market will fix themselves.

    What a freekin’ idiot. Did anyone here Angela Merkel – the conservative German President on NPR today – the excesses of the market have almost sunk the world economy. Governments HAVE to fix the problems and it is the reponsibility of governments to ensure that their people do not starve. The days of the 1800’s philosophy of free markets are long gone and this is the last nail in the coffin of that stupidity – long live Teddy Roosevelt and the trust busters (he had to leave the republican party to bust the monopolies too).

  10. 10

    8 & 9,

    Gee, I guess you like yourself so much that you posted twice.

    Yeah, I’m gonna vote for Ron Paul, and if you don’t like Ron Paul, I invite you to go fuck yourself.

    Government is the first entity to blame in this mess. They are responsible for pushing over the first domino in the chain that led tot he current mess.

  11. 11

    @6 “I’ll stick with writing-in Ron Paul.”

    So you think isolationism and a 30% federal sales tax are good ideas? No surprise there. We’ve always known you’re an idiot.

  12. 12

    @10 “if you don’t like Ron Paul, I invite you to go fuck yourself”

    That won’t be necessary. Mr. Paul is very capable of fucking himself. He’ll get, oh, maybe 1% of the vote — just enough to flip a couple of pink states to Obama.

  13. 13

    @10 “Government is the first entity to blame in this mess. They are responsible for pushing over the first domino in the chain that led tot he current mess.”

    No, I think you’re to blame. Yes, now that I think about it, I think you created this mess all by yourself. You messed your pants and now it stinks around here.

  15. 15

    The republicans have been complaining about election fraud – but have virtually no evidence for it. In a REALcase of election fraud, how vigorously did the justice department pursue the case? Not very…

    The slow-walk of justice for Republican wrongdoers has been setting some kind of a record in NH.
    Tiny blurb in Thursday’s Union Leader:

    A new trial for accused 2002 GOP phone jamming conspirator James Tobin is expected in either December or January. Tobin’s conviction on phone harassment and conspiracy charges was reversed by a federal appeals court in March and remanded to the trial court… Briefs will begin to be filed in September.

    So–federal crime in November, 2002 as paid professional staffers for the NH Republican State Committee and the RNC conspire to jam Democrats’ phones on Election Day. Eventually, one FBI agent in Boston is told to look into this on a part-time basis, but instructed not to follow up on leads to Washington, DC because “other agents” will cover such leads. Such leads, if followed by anyone, yield no indictments, testimony, or the slightest evidence that other FBI agents worked on the case.

    Wait two years
    In 2004, James Tobin was serving as New England chair for the Bush/Cheney campaign when hints of his phone-jamming role leaked into the press. Conveniently, he was not indicted until December, 2004, more than two years after the phone-jamming. It took only a few days from Tobin’s indictment until millions of dollars from the RNC started flowing that month into payments for his defense lawyers. But…
    Wait a year
    … it took another year for the case to come to trial. Tobin was found guilty in December, 2005 by 12 NH jurors. And Tobin’s lawyers, within a few days, had transformed their hundreds of pages of objections into multiple appeals of Tobin’s conviction.
    Wait a year
    In January, 2007, a bizarre spectacle played out in Federal Appeals Court in Boston–watching it unfold, I predicted that Tobin’s conviction would be overturned–as it was, on very narrow procedural grounds, in March, 2007. The judgment clearly stated that Tobin could be re-tried.
    Moving comparatively quickly, when events in March get some follow-up in July!
    So now, it seems, in December 2007 or January 2008, NH will re-try Mr. Tobin. Will he finally take the stand and respond to some questions about the crime that took place more than five years in the past? Will the many links from Mr. Tobin to his bosses in Washington, DC get any exploration? Will the lonnnggg slow-walk of the phone-jamming case finally speed up now that a pardon from Bush would need to come before January of 2008?

    Link: http://betsydevine.com/blog/20.....new-trial/

  16. 16

    @10: Government is to blame for the excesses in the banking and home loans – hahahah
    You have any data for that ridiculaous statement – or do you just get your pathetic opinions from thin air?

    Deregulation of the ability to re-sell home loans and the loosening of credit standards is what drove this mess. this was free market capitalism at is best (worst). come on- I want to hear how the free markeet will fix all things some more….I need a good laugh. Your simplistic ideas just went down the toilet.

    Duhhh, we need more free market to fic the free market mess we are in….yup, you libertarians may get what, .01%, of the really stupid vote this time around.

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