| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 364 electoral votes | Mean of 174 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 363 to 175 electoral votes. There were new polls in California, Colorado, and Delaware released today, and as a consequence, Obama earns another electoral vote.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins them all. Obama receives (on average) 364 to McCain’s 174 electoral votes. Obama would almost certainly win the election if it was held today.
Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.
Methods are described in the FAQ.The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.
Even the righties are are calling it 277 to 158 with 103 tossups still out there.
Ya’ hear that righties? Your own people are saying your guy can’t win.
I don’t think Obama will win Missouri or North Carolina but the rest appear to be the way the vote is trending AS OF TODAY. But things do change – I still expect the election to be a lot closer. but thanks to McCain and Palin being so incompetent and desperate – it appears that the current lead by Obama may be too much for them to overcome – racist attacks included.
Putting Missouri and NC in play diverts Republican resources and helps overall and in other races.
We should sue the 2000 and 2004 red states for the $10 trillion of damages.
correctnotright,
Yep…I always qualify these analyses with the disclaimer “if the election was held today.”
McCain is now staking everything on snatching Pennsylvania away from Obama — an impossible task. Obama leads in Pennyslvania by double digits. McCain is truly living in the past. He doesn’t understand that in Philadelphia college students outnumber steelworkers by 10-to-1. Nor does he understand that even the steelworkers will vote for Obama because they’re more worried about their jobs than who Obama sat with on an education committee sponsored by a Republican foundation.
We should take a look at impeaching some Supreme Court Justices.
And throwing their sorry asses in jail.
That’s my take on how the founding fathers would have wanted it.
I don’t know about the rank and file (and I suspect they solidly back Obama), but there may not be a Labor Union more solidly for Sen. Obama in the country than the United Steelworkers. If McCain can stake any hope in PA, it would be the voters between Philly and Pittsburgh. And if I were a betting man, I wouldn’t make the wager. At nearly any odds.
correctnotright,
What makes you think Obama won’t win in North Carolina? It has a large African-American population which has previously tended toward low turnout. But that’s not the case this time.
I believe the polls are actually underestimating Obama’s lead, since they generally use historical turnout models.
FWIW, I’ve been saying Obama had a real chance in NC for quite a while. I really thought he’d be more likely to win in NC than in VA.
@6
Getting PA still wont get him the white house and he’s got R-leaning states that are slipping away. it ‘aint over till it’s over, but it’s about as over as things can get.
Michael,
What R-leaning states are slipping away?
Ohio? No…Obama has led by +5% and +2% in the two most recent polls. Furthermore, Obama has led in 8 of 10 polls taken in October.
Florida? Not a chance. The last time McCain held a lead was 12 polls ago—back in September.
North Carolina? Nope. Obama has led in the two most recent polls. And he has led in 7 of the last 9 polls.
Virginia? Nope. Obama has led in the last four polls by (in reverse chronological order) +8%, +2%, +10% and +12%. Overall, Obama has led in 13 of the last 10 polls.
Missouri? Maybe. McCain has led polling thorough the end of September, but then Obama led in the very last September poll by +1%. There have been two October polls taken at essentially the same time. In one, Obama leads by +3%; the other has McCain up by +3%.
Nevada? Nope. Obama has led in the last six polls, dating back to 28-Sep.
ArizonaNew Mexico? Nope. Obama has led in EVERY poll since mid-September. That makes six consecutive polls in Obama’s favor.New Hampshire? Unlikely. Obama has led in the last seven poll. The four October polls range from +8% to +13%.
Pennsylvania? Not a chance. All six October polls have had Obama up by double-digits. McCain never led in the twenty polls taken in September (there were two ties early in the month, however).
I trust I need not pull the stats for Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan (all solidly polling for Obama).
There are numerous plausible scenarios by which Obama wins the election with Pennsylvania, even if he somehow loses Ohio and Florida.
Darryl,
Michael was agreeing with that.
Meanwhile, and the latest ABC News/Washing Post poll, Obama leads McCain nationwide 53%-43%, which means that 96% of people have made up their minds and the remaining 4% will NOT put Grandpa McErratic over the top.
Couldn’t happen to a
losernicer guy withan unqualified right-wing extremista weirder running mate.RR @ 6: You mentioned that college students in Philadelphia outnumber steelworkers 10 to 1. That’s not to surprising, the steel mills were located in Pittsburg, almost on the other side of the state.
Maybe you meant Pittsburg instead? Because even in Pittsburg, the steel mills have mostly shut down. I understand that makes it a much nicer place to live, without all the attendent pollution. But families who used to have several generations of steel workers making good union money have found their jobs dissapear to foreign competition. It wouldn’t surprise me if very few of those folks vote for McCain. McCain’s economic plan for those folks seems to have something to do with keeping their young men unemployed, poor, and available for service in the military.
@11: Uhh Darryl
Arizona? You must mean New Mexico. McCain leads in Arizona and has never been behind in his home state.
correctnotright,
Yep…I looked at the polls for New Mexico and wrote Arizona. (Doh!) Thanks for the correction.
Dear rhp6033,
Pittsburg is in Kansas. Or California.
Pittsburgh is the city at the confluence of the Allegheny and Monongahela Rivers. I speak as a 15-year resident of said city.
N @ 17: Thanks for the correction, spelling was never my strong suit.
Your comment gave me a smile, as I had a vision of steel mills arising on the Kansas prarie. Talk about being out of place!
Historically, steel mills arose where there was a combination of several elements available relatively closely nearby: coal, iron ore, and water transportation (to move the coal and iron ore to the mill).
I feel a bit sorry for McCain. Trailing in the polls, everybody wants to give him advice:
GOP frets about McCain’s strategy
Well, the McCain campaign DID try to “plant doubts about Obama’s associations” months ago. Problem was, it was seen as a charge with no substance, and quickly became a non-factor. It appeals only to his base, which would vote for him even if he sprouted hornes and a pointed tail, but has had little effect with the average voter. People might tell McCain, fellow Republicans, and even pollsters that is one of the reasons they are voting for McCain, but what doesn’t come through is that they would vote for McCain anyway. It’s just a rationalization to support a predetermined action.
So having shot off all their ammo to no effect months ago, they are trying to bring it up again now because – well, because they don’t have anything else they can do. They are out of ammo.
On the radio this morning they were reporting that over the weekend, the McCain campaign was alerting reporters to his new “tax cut plan” which would be released today. But it’s already after lunch on the East Coast, and no new plan so far. Makes you wonder how badly things are going over in the McCain camp. Is he going to try for a tax cut plan which keeps the Bush cuts in place (thereby keeping his financiers happy), and then add Obama’s tax cuts to the middle class? If so, that’s a pretty desperate strategy: bribe the electorate with a big tax cut but add hundreds of billions more to the federal deficit to be paid for sometime in the future by our grandchildren? Or is he going to try the old “Reaganomics” argument, that the tax cuts would pay for themsleves? (History proved: they don’t). Or maybe they looked at the plan and realized that it was so worthless that to release it would be an admission of impending defeat?
I don’t know… Everyone talks about the Bradley Effect, but what I am more worried about is the Leisure Time Effect. This is my worry that record about of voter registration, that would obviously help Obama, will make the voting lines so long that people who don’t have time to stand in line forever won’t go to vote. People who have time to stand in line for so long probably have much more leisure time than people with low income people, and they skew Democrat. On the other hand, if you see a line (like some of Ohio’s 1, 2, 3 hour long lines) that long you are probably only going to stand in it if you really support your candidate, which will help Obama.
This isn’t really that comforting though, because there always seems to be no lines in the white suburbs, but many in the cities. If everyone in rural and suburban area can vote eas, but people turn away in the cities, McCain can win this easy.