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Election Scorecard

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Obama McCain
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 362 electoral votes Mean of 176 electoral votes


Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 363 to 175 electoral votes. Obama had a 100% chance of winning an election held yesterday.

Today, there were 35 new polls representing 22 states released. The net result is a one-vote decline for Obama.

An analysis of 100,000 simulated elections shows Obama winning every one. Obama receives (on average) 362 to McCain’s 176 electoral votes. Obama still has a 100.0% probability of winning an election held now.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Comments

  1. 1

    Darryl~ you know where you can post your scorecard, right? Come wednesday morning and there is a president-elect McCain, perhaps you’ll then post a scorecard explaining where it all went wrong.

  2. 2

    Rick @ 1: Feeling a little piqued, are we?

    This isn’t 1948. Gallop isn’t going to stop polling a week before the election, as it did then. Darryl’s keeping us up to date with the recent polling. If you don’t like the poll results, perhaps you should be looking at the cause of the bad news (McCain himself, Republican corruption and incompetence, Republican ideology), instead of blaming the messenger.

  4. 4

    Today’s Rasmussen–
    Thursday, October 30, 2008

    After showing the candidates just three points apart yesterday, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll on Thursday returns to the range that has defined the race for over a month. It’s Obama by five, 51% to 46%.

    The Democrats were wise to rush voters to the polls before election day and before the Obama vetting began in earnest. So many millions have already voted and cannot now “change their minds”. Good strategy. So was Obama lying about taking public financing and instead buying the election with over $600 million. Obama has a “free market capitalist” spirit…but only when it benefits him. Then he lies.
    Gee, Obama sounds exactly like the greedy Wall Street bastards he claims to abhor!

  5. 5

    Ranching in Montana is such easy work. It affords Cynical with plenty of time to post all day and night on Western Washington political blogs. It also gives him plenty of time to have lunch at his favorite cafe in Lacey, just a short hop from the BIAW headquarters in Olympia. Yes, ranching in Montana is such easy work.

  6. 6

    About the “undecideds”:

    “…Franklin constructed a statistical model to predict the vote choice among those who expressed a preference, then ran the model among the 267 respondents who were completely undecided. This process allows us to draw on every variable that seems predictive of vote preference — including party identification, age, race, gender, education, frequency of church attendance and geographic region — and use it to predict how the currently undecided voters will ultimately “break.”

    Franklin’s finding? The model predicts that the totally undecided voters in this sample will split 54 percent for Obama and 46 percent for McCain….”

    Source: A hidden vote for John McCain?

  8. 8

    Cynical @ # 4: “…before the Obama vetting begins in earnest…”

    Comeon, even YOU don’t believe that one!

    Obama’s record has been scrutizined by Republican operatives for the past two years, and the best thing they can come up with is that he once sat on the board of a Republican founded-and-run charity along with William Ayers. Voters long ago rejected that one as a desperate long-shot by the McCain campaign.

    In contrast, the church I was in last Sunday (not my church, it’s one I was visiting) called upon it’s members to spend the remaining days before the election in prayer and fasting for our country. In particular, they were to fast from any “negative enfluences” by cutting themselves off from all news sources (TV, radio, internet, newspapers) until the election is over.

    I guess that’s one way to remain completely unaware of what’s happening. But as a campaign tactic, I think that one came a couple of months too late.

  9. 9

    Cynical @ #4:

    Obama didn’t buy the election, we did. That’s right, folks like me who sent Obama $50 bought the election. He jacked Rove into thinking he was going to take public funding and did a end-around…all the better. Now stop your crying, your boy looks like one of the Keystone Cops fussing about being fooled. Next time maybe your gang should plan for the worst and hope for the best.

    Tell me old wise one (cynical) what bottle of wine from my cellar should I enjoy while I watch Johnny concede? 1989 Chateau Haut Brion or one of my Quilceda Creek RP 100 pt? It’s truly going be a great night.

  11. 11

    Cynical @ 4
    If the McCain campaign has truly waited until the last 5 days of the campaign to “vet” Obama, then the manifest ineptitude of the McCain campaign is truly striking. Do you realize how idiotic you have been sounding lately?

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