Election Scorecard

100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 376 electoral votesMean of 162 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 376 to 162 electoral votes, on average.

Today we got 35 new polls covering 19 states. The net result of all these new polls is…not much. Obama holds firmly to his lead today.

A Monte Carlo analysis utilizing 100,000 simulated elections shows Obama winning each and every mock election. Obama receives (on average) 376 to McCain’s 162 electoral votes. The analysis suggests that Obama would have a 100.0% probability of winning an election held today.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.


  1. 1

    YLB spews:

    McSame is pulling out every stop imaginable: Obama is a socialist, Leninist, Marxist, Stalinist and Nazi to boot. If we elect Obama, our country will fall to communism.

    It’s totally going batshit insane. I know it’s not even a million people who are this nuts but it’s still too many for my comfort zone.

  2. 2

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @1 That’s a stupid strategy. It gets the wingnuts fired up but sounds over the top to everyone else. McCain doesn’t need to motivate the Birchers to vote for him; and yelling “socialist!” won’t draw in moderate voters. This election was winnable for McCain but his campaign has misfired from day one and is still misfiring. He’s got very dumb people working for him and he doesn’t get it himself. Worst candidate implosion I’ve seen since Goldwater. As for Palin, she’s a talking doll. Pull the cord on her back and a recorded blurb spits out.

  3. 3

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Here’s what Karl Marx said:

    “In a higher phase of communist society, after the enslaving subordination of the individual to the division of labor, and therewith also the antithesis between mental and physical labor, has vanished; after labor has become not only a means of life but life’s prime want; after the productive forces have also increased with the all-around development of the individual, and all the springs of co-operative wealth flow more abundantly–only then can the narrow horizon of bourgeois right be crossed in its entirety and society inscribe on its banners: From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.”

    From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs. Sounds mighty close to what O-blah-blah has been spewing, doesn’t it?

    When you talk like Karl Marx…folks might just think you have a Marxist philosophy.

  4. 4

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Look KLOWNS, O-blah-blah is a follower of Norman Thomas, 6-time American Socialist Party Presidential Candidate. Thomas tells us:

    “The American people will never knowingly adopt Socialism. But under the name of ‘liberalism’ they will adopt every fragment of the Socialist program, until one day America will be a Socialist nation, without knowing how it happened.”
    – Norman Thomas

    O-blah-blah isn’t going to honestly tell people he is a Socialist,,,because that won’t work. He will simply push sugar-coated Socialism as redistribution of wealth for the “greater good”.

    Progressivism is merely the incremental progressing toward a Socialist State. That’s why the Communists in the 50’s called themselves Progressives.

    I’m certain some of you KLOWNS clearly see this…

    but squeal in protest of words like Socialism or Marxism…even though that is what it is. Others hate America and what it stands for. Others are merely NAIVE…failing to connect the dots.

  5. 5

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Here is a Michelle Obama quote:
    “The Truth is, in order to get things like Universal Health Care and a revamped Education System, SOMEONE is going to have to give up a piece of the pie, so that someone else can have more.”

    Clearly, the O-blah-blah’s mentality is redistribution of wealth…rather than GROWING the economy. The Socialist/Marxist belief is the Economic Pie is FINITE! The fact is the ECONOMIC PIE can & will grow. Totally different outlook toward economic. The FINITE ECONOMIC PIE attitude is prevalent among TEAM HORSESASS. It’s an attitude of jealousy & envy of those who have.

    40% of Americans don’t pay Federal INCOME Tax. O-blah-blah wants that to grow….it’s called WELFARE and creates his power base of DEPENDENCY! O-blah-blah is nothing more than a slick, reinvented Jesse Jackson.

  6. 6

    correctnotright spews:

    Hey Cynical:
    You are a complete idiot. We don’t need your stupidrepublican talking points. The facts are that Obama will cut taxes on anyone making under 250K and that will start to fix the slanted republican policies that have hurt the middle class.
    Only you and the Faux news idiots call that socialism. Most real Americans call it fairness.

    McCain is pathetic. I know Halloween is near but he has no new ideas and the republican party is intellectually bankrupt. thanks to cynical we can see the lack of intellectual integrity. Their last resort is not new ideas but old slanders – no one beleives it and they are alienating anyone with a brain.

    The only people left in therepublican party after this election will be the brainlews, the corrupt and the ethically challenged. What a sad and pathetic group – they have no new ideas just old attacks. these are the same people who supported Hoover during the great depression – the economy is falling apart and they want the free market to solve the problems it created. No plan, no sense and no hope….just pathetic.

  7. 7

    YLB spews:

    They say that all taxes is redistribution of wealth and that’s what the right wing tax policies have done exactly:

    redistributed it UPWARDS.

    How did that work out?

    Now we’re going into 700 billion dollars of more debt to bail out the primary beneficiaries of right wing tax, regulatory and economic policies.


  8. 8

    YLB spews:

    Cynical is going to haunt his neighborhood as a REPUBLICAN ghoul for halloween. Maybe his mask will be a combo of Dumbya and Raygun.

    Scary!!! Keep your kids indoors this year folks.

  9. 9

    YLB spews:

    “redistribution of wealth” is just this election cycle’s “welfare queens” for the REPUBLICANS.

    An expression of hate and a big lie on top of it.

  10. 10

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Barrack & Michelle Obama have strong Socialist/Marxist beliefs….by their own words.

    Apparently more & more Americans are feeling the same way as Obama is hemmoraging votes.
    He still has an almost insurmountable lead…but the trend is now toward McCain..especially in the swing States.
    Too little, too late….but Obama will not have any sort of “mandate” to move forward with his Socialist/Marxist Agenda.

  11. 11

    YLB spews:

    We are deepest into silly season now.

    So much right wing bullshit you need a chainsaw to cut through it.

    Vote for positive change. Reject the ugly tide of right wing fear.

    Vote Obama/Biden on Nov 4 and re-elect Christine Gregoire.

  12. 14

    rhp6033 spews:

    I’ve mentioned before, I’ve got quite a few Republican friends. They aren’t financial elites, “country-club” republicans, or even “upper-middle class”. They are for the most part working class people who have, over the years, been convinced by the Republicans that the Democrats are trying to take more money from them to give it to people who won’t work. It’s the old “welfare queen” argument.

    I’ve given up trying to convince them of the faulty basis for that argument, or the illogical nature of them supporting a party which works against their finanical interests. We agree to disagree about politics (sometimes loudly), and we still enjoy each other’s company to talk about work, life, love, children, outdoor sports, etc.

    But last night I realized that when it comes to news and information, we really do live in two different worlds. One of the fellows, a normally reasonably bright guy, quietly announced that the current financial crisis was caused by small and medium-sized business owners laying of workers in expectation of the hug tax increases Obama was going to put on their businesses.

    Perplexed, I asked him what taxes he was talking about. “You know, the taxes on business”. I replied to him that for the most part, the only taxes the federal government applies to business are the federal income tax and the payroll taxes. I know that Obama and McCain don’t plan any changes to the payroll taxes. So how are any federal income tax changes going to affect a company’s expenses? He argued that if an income tax increase would make the company lose money, forcing it to fire workers.

    I again tried to point out that a tax on income (profits) assumes the axpenses have already been paid. If the company isn’t making any money, then it doesn’t matter whether their tax rate is 0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, or 90% – their tax bill is still zero. The biggest problem for business over the next two years will be to MAKE a profit, not how much of that profit will be taxed.

    But he kept insisting that Obama was going to raise taxes which would put American companies out of business, even though he couldn’t identify which tax, or how it would add to their expense side of the ledger.

    Apparantly he gets his economic education from Dori Manson, Rush Limbaugh, and Hannity.

  13. 16

    YLB spews:

    Ronnie Raygun raised taxes on the middle class and small business in a big way through that Greenspan Commission.

    Some minds are just totally in the grip of fear. It happens every election cycle. They can’t think out of the box.

  14. 21

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @2 “Sounds mighty close to what O-blah-blah has been spewing, doesn’t it?”

    No, there’s no resemblance at all. None, nada, zip. Only 6 more days, Cynical, then the Klepto Party will be out of power! People are tired of “socialism for the rich.”

    You see, Cyn, what Obama is talking about is wage earners pay taxes at the full rate while Repukes give themselves special discounts that only the Owning Class gets, which transfers tax burdens to the middle class and wealth to the rich.

    Obama only wants to level the playing field a little. Not all the way, mind you, just a little. And you greedy thieving bastards call that “socialism”?! Next Tuesday, you’re gonna see how this bullshit plays in Peoria (and a lot of other places).

  15. 22

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Since it’s extremely unlikely that Cynical is in the over-$250K income bracket, if he doesn’t like the tax cut President Obama will give him, he should donate it back to the government to help pay down the deficit.

  16. 24

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @8 “Scary!!! Keep your kids indoors this year folks.”

    Definitely warn your kids against pulling up McCain signs so they don’t get shot by crazy gun-wielding Republicans:

    “LEAVITTSBURG, Ohio (Oct. 28) – A teenager was wounded … by a man who … wanted to stop the boy … from taking his … McCain yard sign, according to police.

    “Warren Township police Lt. Don Bishop said 50-year-old Kenneth Rowles told officers he got out a … rifle Saturday … to fire warning shots … [that] hit the van the teens were in. …

    “The victim and his cousin admitted stealing signs …. Rowles had the only McCain sign on a street with numerous … Obama signs, according to Bishop. He said there was no evidence the thefts were anything more than teen vandalism. No charges were filed against the boys.”

    (Quoted from AP under fair use.)

    Roger Rabbit Commentary: This wingnut, surrounded by Democrats, no doubt is a paranoid freak with a bunker mentality. BANG! BANG! The Bircher’s solution to every social problem.

  17. 25

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @12 Yawn. It’s fun to watch a scared, cornered, Mr. Cynical tremble as tax fairness closes in on him! He hasn’t been this big a chickenshit since Mrs. Cynical got out the carving knives and fired up the chainsaw. Say, btw, where is Mrs. C when we need her?

  18. 28

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @19 Looks like the peasants had enough. I wonder if Mr. Cynical and his concubine, Marie Antoinette, see the crowds gathering yet? And what’s that gizmo with the shiny blade they’re wheeling into the town square?

  19. 29

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @22 Why don’t you consider renting it so you can exchange it for another one when it gets tired?

  20. 35

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    My previous last post was #12.
    I think Goldy needs to ban Steve for doing his fake ID thing….but it’s Goldy’s Blog.
    Steve is such a sick bastard, he posts using another’s handle and then responds to it @ 33.

    Nice Blog Goldy.

  21. 36

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    I have a number of friends who are tax attorney’s and Tax CPA’s. You cannot believe how busy they are…tax planning for an Obama presidency. And trust that the clients are not even close to all Republican’s!

    You KLOWNS truly are Lenin’s Useful Idiots. You buy into this Marxist redistribution of wealth BS hook, line & sinker. While you are all ranting & wet-dreaming about how Obama is going to “GET” the rich folks & corporations, these same people are spending BILLIONS to shelter assets & income in anticipation. You don’t get it. It is like the Alligator game where the Alligator head pops up and just when you smack one…another pops up. It will never end.

    Let me give you an example rhp……….
    Capital Gains Tax…..most of the unrealized Capital Gains have DISAPPEARED…trillions of dollars in unrealized capital gains from stocks & real estate alone.

    Here is are a couple other examples…
    **Big bonuses and pension/profit-sharing contributions in 2008.
    **Big dividends paid still only subject to 15% tax.

    That only scratches the surface rhp.
    Assets are being transferred to tax friendly havens.

    The list of strategies goes on & on & on.

    And your LEFTY Heroes like Babs Streisand and others are right in the middle of all this!!

    Good luck in finding the pea KLOWNS!

    HINT: The pea isn’t under any of the 3 cups you are focused on…it’s in the wealthy folks hand!

    Your best bet is to GROW the economy and LOWER taxes. Seriously. Otherwise it is clear you are destined to cut off your Pinocchio noses to spite your ugly faces!

  22. 37

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Tell me why I would be trembling??
    No debt. No Market exposure. Money spread out. 3 cords of dry firewood, 3 cords of semi-dry and 4 cords of just cut green.
    We have a 10′ X 12′ pantry filled with food & supplies. We have 2 full freezers and a couple generators in case we lose power…plus 100 gallons of fresh gas stored. Weapons & Ammo.
    Great health..neighbor who is a Dr.
    My wife & I will only take 2 trips this year instead of 5.

    Do you really think Obama will have much negative impact on my life? I’ve already prepared myself. I think Obama will end up hurting the middle class that he claims to want to help.

  23. 38

    Steve spews:

    @34 You are becoming delusional.

    @35 You are now delusional.

    @36 You are beyond delusional. You have lost your fucking mind.

  24. 39

    correctnotright spews:

    Wow – you really ARE that stupid!
    You must think the last 8 years of Bushanomics, tax cuts for the wealthy and trickle down theory have been good!

    You are so out of touch you even misinterpret the polls that show Obama is pulling away. Most americans recognize the “socialist” attacks as the last gasps of a dying campaign with NO new ideas and just the same old failed policies.

    If Obama is soicalist then so is McCain, Bush and Reagan since McCain was against the tax cuts for the rich and Reagan supported the graduated income tax in place since 1910.

    You are either really dumb or an idealogue who just likes to come on here and stir the juice with false talking points. Either way – you just show how pathetically uninformed you are.

  25. 40

    rhp6033 spews:

    Cynical @ 35: In other words, we should continue to allow the wealthy to avoid paying their fair share of taxes because otherwise they would take other steps to avoid paying their fair share of taxes?

    Kind of reminds me of a one-time employer of a acquantance of mine. He had a pattern of holding back paychecks, and threatening workers that if they didn’t keep working for no pay, or if they reported him, then they would never see their paychecks! Some of his workers were gullible, and were afraid to complain because he kept holding out the promise that some day, some way, he might actually pay them if they were sufficiently compliant and subservant. I advised my acquantance to cut his losses, leave NOW, file a complaint with the attorney general’s office, and move on to another job. The employer had the temerity to counter-sue the employee for failure to give two weeks notice, but long before the trial the employer shut down the shop, took all the equipment and inventory out the back door during the weekend, and disappeared. Right now he’s a fugitive in several states.

    Oh, and he was as Republican as they come, of the rabid-dog variety.

  26. 41

    rhp6033 spews:

    In the meantime, the DJIA is up today, passing 8,500 before noon. Wake me up when (if) it gets to 10,587.59, which was where it was at when Bush took office on Jan. 20, 2008).

    Funny how swings of 200, 300, 400, or even 500 points don’t have the impact they used to, even a few months ago.

  27. 43

    Don Joe spews:

    Cynical @ 35

    You buy into this Marxist redistribution of wealth BS hook, line & sinker.

    As I’ve pointed out elsewhere, the only bullshit floating around here is the right-wing contention that Sen. Obama’s tax proposals even remotely resemble anything that can be called “Marxist.” No matter how often you repeat the lie, a baseball is not a basketball.

  28. 44

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    rhp6033 spews:

    Cynical @ 36: So you are going into full survivalist mode?

    Not exactly….call it enjoying having the basics lined up for a year or so.
    It’s actually quite interesting seeing how little one can get by on…with some planning & hard work.
    Trading food stuff with neighbors makes sense anyway….especially when folks grow different things.
    One of my neighbors just bought 6 Angus Beef Cattle…which some of us will share the cost & spoils.
    Freezer is already full.
    Won’t harvest the Beef for a couple of years.
    But when I look out the window, I see many fine Dinners walking around HORMONE & STEROID FREE munching on fine quality grass.