| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 376 electoral votes | Mean of 162 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 373 to 165 electoral votes (on average). Obama almost certainly would have won an election held yesterday.
With the addition of fifteen new polls from thirteen states today, Obama earns a couple more electoral votes….
A Monte Carlo analysis consisting of 100,000 simulated elections shows Obama winning them all. Obama receives (on average) 376 to McCain’s 162 electoral votes—a gain of three. Obama would still have a near-100.0% probability of winning an election held today.
Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.
Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.
Palin says she’ll name her next kid “Zamboni.” Any parent who names a child after an ice smoothing machine should be (a) banned for life from hockey rinks and (b) sued for parental malpractice. Can you imagine going through life with a name like that? If you ever run for president some fucking Republican will accuse you of being an Arab.
(Source: parentdish.com)
The polls don’t say one thing though… Should we selling these t-shirts courtesy of a very funny web site?
http://www.engrish.com/wp-cont.....tshirt.jpg
or as the wingnuts would have you believe, Obama acts all nice and sweet but is really a Taliban terrorist!! Well, he has to seduce us into giving up our guns first…
http://www.engrish.com/wp-cont.....aliban.jpg
A friend pointed me here after I had a “Shit!” cookie in Tokyo once…
There’s a “racists for obama” web site, I kid you not …
http://www.youtube.com/user/racistsforobama
And a “rednecks for obama” web site …
http://www.rednecks4obama.com/
Even white trash have had it with Republicans.
Rla @ 2: It’s interesting to see how things pop up unexpectedly in different places around the world.
About eight years ago I was in Tokyo, and I saw some young people walking on the sidewalk, out for an evening on the town. One couple were wearing rather nice black leather jackets. But as they walked away, I noticed that on the back was a big Nationalist China flag, and chinese writing.
I recognized it as the jacket worn by the AVG (American Volunteers Group), U.S. pilots who flew under contract for the Chinese in their war against Japan, before the U.S. entered the war. The writing on the back was designed to protect the American pilots if they were shot down over enemy territory, and promised anyone assisting them back to friendly territory a reward paid in gold.
I always wished I could have asked that Japanese young couple if they understood the significance of the jackets. Given the little that is said in Japan these days about WWII, were they simply ignorant of the historical significance? Although most Japanese know Chinese ideograms (called “Kanji” in Japan), was it not understandable to them in this context? Was it simply youthful rebellion, an attempt to shock their elders? Or maybe a choice of “style” over “substance”?
Great audio from Senator Obama vision of America
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iivL4c_3pck
Back to the polls:
Someone on the radio was saying that Zogby weighted their “likely voter” analysis by factoring in voter turnout for each party in the last election. For example, if in 2004 40% of self-identified Democrats didn’t vote, this year all respondents who identified themselves as Democrats would be discounted by a similar 40%.
If so, those polls are discounting the Democratic turnout significantly.
And isn’t Montana a lovely shade of blue? Sure, it only has what – three electoral votes? But with Montana, Colorado, and New Mexico trending blue, that’s quite a big inroad into the formerly all-red western states.
Didn’t I see that yesterday Alaska’s biggest newspaper endorsed Obama, because Palin wasn’t qualified to be President?
That’s gotta hurt.
@9 You sure did — they sure did. I would add, though, the main thrust of the editorial was the Anchorage Daily News thought McCain was the wrong man to be president. They like Palin as their governor, but did say she isn’t qualified to be president.