| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 373 electoral votes | Mean of 165 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 372 to 166 electoral votes (on average). Today we have eight new polls in seven states weighing in on the contest. Obama gains very slightly.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins them all. Obama receives (on average) 373 to McCain’s 165 electoral votes—a gain of one electoral vote. If the election had been held today, Obama would have won with near certainty.
Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.
Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.
How Bad Will It Get For The GOP?
Well, that remains to be seen, of course. Markos Moulitsas of DailyKos, writing in Newsweek, describes what’s at stake for the Repugs:
Ideology: A huge Democratic victory on Nov. 4 will “signal the utter rejection of conservative ideology and kill the notion that America is a ‘center-right’ country.”
Obama mandate: Markos says it’s a “safe bet” Obama will win “a healthy victory,” defined as a 5% popular vote margin and 300 to 350 electoral votes. But Obama is within reach of beating the 53.5% popular vote Bush Sr. won in 1988 and the 379 electoral votes Clinton won in 1996.
A Democratic nation: This election is likely to recolor the map. In current polls, McCain has expanded GOP margins in only 2 of the 21 states that Bush won by double digits in 2004, while 7 of those states are single-digit races this year. “Flipping some of those states will show that Democrats can win in GOP ‘strongholds’ and that Republicans are no longer safe anywhere,” Markos says.
High profile races: Losing your party’s national leaders is “disruptive” and “demoralizing,” Markos says, “as Democrats learned when Republicans beat Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle.” This year, Republicans are at risk of losing their Minority Leader, celebrities like Elizabeth Dole, symbolically important seats like Dick Cheney’s old House seat in Wyoming and Bush Sr.’s old House seat in Texas, and their last remaining House seat in New England. They also could end up with a 100%-white House delegation because all of their Hispanic, black, and Asian members are facing possible defeat. In addition, all of their “McCarthyists” could fall: Saxby Chambliss in the Senate, and Michelle Bachmann, Robin Hayes, and Randy Kuhl in the House.
(Source: Newsweek; quotes used under fair use.)
Roger Rabbit Commentary: In short, this election could establish a Democratic mandate and a new Democratic Majority.
Let’s Be The Law And Order Party
A sudden increase in the prison population should be a consequence of a Democratic victory. Oh, I’m not talking about an Ann Coulter-style roundup of political opponents here. I envision nothing more than enforcing our existing criminal laws through the established mechanisms of police investigation, prosecution, and jury trials. For example, targeting blacks for vote suppression is a federal felony and the U.S. Attorneys who will replace the partisan GOP appointees come January should vigorously prosecute every political operative who was involved at any time within the statute of limitations. Likewise, the CIA agents, private contractors, and other Bush administrative operatives who participated in torturing detainees should be prosecuted to the fall extent of the law — no immunity for human rights violators. And every last vestige of Republican corruption should be rooted out. I envision tens of thousands of Republican operatives ending up in prison, because I believe that’s how widespread and systematic the Bushevik crimes were. My main point is, no amnesty for these criminals! This isn’t revenge, it’s justice. If Reichert can claim to have pursued Ridgway for 20 years, then Democrats ought to be willing to spend a couple of years rounding up the Republican Mafia. The American people expect no less and the rule of law demands nothing less!
Joe The Plumber Is A Fugitive
Sam Wurlzebacher’s photo belongs on post office walls, not magazine covers. He’s not only an unlicensed plumber and tax cheat but also a fugitive from unpaid traffic fines in Arizona.
According to a Phoenix newspaper, the East Valley Tribune, Arizona suspended Wurzelbacher’s license after he failed to pay traffic fines totaling $727. Court records show he was cited for running a red light and not having insurance.
Wurzelbacher was able to get an Ohio driver’s license because the Arizona suspension wasn’t entered in a national database through clerical error, but Ohio officials say he they’ll suspend Wurzelbacher’s Ohio driver’s license when they receive confirmation from Arizona of the unpaid fine.
I say issue a bench warrant and extradite his ass back to Arizona to pay up or do jail time.
Wanted For Unpaid Child Support (?): Joe The Plumber
According to Freep.com, Joe owes unpaid child support, too. I can’t verify this with other sources, but a story in the Columbus Dispatch suggests his driver’s license records were (possibly illegally) accessed through Cuyahoga County’s child support enforcement office.
Let’s review. The GOP’s newly minted All-American Blue Collar Icon is:
1. An apprenticeship program dropout working without a license,
2. A tax cheat,
3. A suspended driver,
4. A traffic court scofflaw,
5. And maybe a deadbeat dad, too (unverified).
Those poor Republicans just can’t catch a break! But there’s a reason why they don’t vet their candidates or front men. None of ’em can pass a background check, that’s why! Show me a Republican and I’ll show you a lawbreaker.
Man, the wingnuts have really been beaten into the dust!
Sure sucks to be them. I’m sure they’ll keep listenin’ to that Flush Limpblows, the Insanity of Hannity and O’Felafel to get them through the long dark night of indefinite irrelevance.
I wonder when the “Drive By Media” will have something to say about Rush’s lies, distortions, and GOP water carrying.
The party of hate is going down in flames.
Thank god.
I watched a couple Republiconvict guests on today’s talk shows. Lie, after lie, after lie. It was sickening. I hate to think of the number of people that believe these lies. It’s not like the commentator is gonna call them out. Pathetic.
They keep saying Obama will tax small businesses, and claim our corporate tax rates are high, but forget to mention the loopholes that make them extremely low. Lie, after lie.
The top 1/10 of 1% is making half the money in this country. They can easily pay the budget shortfall out of their ill gotten gains. Think of how many people are getting crushed so they can get their double digit returns every year. Sick.
Spread the wealth? You bet. Tax the folks that have been hoarding all the loot the last 8 years. They will have to create jobs and re invest in America, or they will be taxed even more.
Our financial problems are solved.
See. It’s not that hard…. Now about taxing imports, and companies that outsource labor…. Badda bing.
I just saw a tape of Michelle Bachmann blathering about “not all cultures are equal”.
This implies that some are “more equal than others”.
The batshit insane wingnut culture that’s expressed in every wingnut spew on HA.org is in REALITY saying that the Limpblows-Savage/Wiener-Insanity Hannity-KVI-KTTH right wing talk radio garbage culture is superior.
Me I’m for live and let live. Do whatever you want as long you don’t hurt anyone. Yeah, go ahead be a wingnut. No one who’s sane would let you run a dog kennel but it’s ok as long you keep your gun pointed at beer bottles or the game animal you have a legal tag for.
@6 “Man, the wingnuts have really been beaten into the dust!”
Yeah, and it keeps getting worse for them! Today Alaska’s leading newspaper endorsed the black guy.
@9 “I just saw a tape of Michelle Bachmann blathering about ‘not all cultures are equal’.”
Finally she’s right about something! Wingnut culture and redneck culture — I’m not sure there’s any difference — are definitely inferior.
@9 (continued) “Me I’m for live and let live.”
I’m for letting the fuckers die off. The world will be better off without them.*
* I’m not suggesting we should help this along. I’m only saying let Nature and Darwinian selection take their course. Nature always defends itself against cataclysmically destructive organisms in the end.
Georgia -3.7!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
12 – Yep, the wingnut virus like a hemorraghic fever could burn itself out.
However another charismatic right winger like a Raygun could rise again to sell the same warmed over bullshit harvest whatever discontent people are feeling. People’s memories are often short.