| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 372 electoral votes | Mean of 166 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 376 to 162 electoral votes. There were 21 new polls in 15 states released today. The polls slightly favor McCain, so that he gains a handful of electoral votes today.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 372 to McCain’s 166 electoral votes. Obama would still have a 100.0% probability of winning an election held now.
Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.
Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.
Montana and Georgia are in play for Obama. Oh, and so are West Virginia and North Dakota. Let us not talk about Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio . . . C’mon, you puppy barbecuing righties–“turn out the lights, the party’s over.”
The McCain campaign is in meltdown, the religious right is sending out frenzied emails, the Republican party is breaking ranks and 3.1 million new voters are lining up to vote. Life is good.
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The bigger question now is what do Alaskans do with Palin?
2 – Her popularity is dropping like a stone in Alaska. After the fallout from Troopergate and the disaster of a gas pipeline deal she did, I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s recalled.
But between all the extremist religious whackos and the Alaska first crowd up there, it’s a longshot. Thinking people in Alaska may have to suffer with her for a while.
Interesting that the states where the two candidates are campaigning now are mostly colored blue. So I guess it’s Obama who’s on the defensive. And why not, when you are winning most states, you have more to defend.