| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 370 electoral votes | Mean of 168 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by an average of 368 to 170 electoral votes. Today there were 18 new polls representing 12 states released that weigh in on the score. The net result is a small gain for Obama.
A Monte Carlo analysis consisting of 100,000 simulated elections finds that Obama wins every one. Obama receives (on average) 370 to McCain’s 168 electoral votes—a gain of two. If an election had been held today, Obama would have had a near 100% probability of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days over the period 22-Feb to 22-Oct. After a very slight period of decline, Obama is again gaining with time:
Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.
Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.
As Roger said in the last thread, the election is all but finished.
Unfortunately, the nightmare is a long ways from being over.
As long as the criminal gang in the White House remains we can look forward to this:
http://www.aclu.org/privacy/sp.....ezone.html
An AP poll that came out yesterday showed the race tightening from a 7-point Obama lead among likely voters 3 weeks ago to a virtual dead heat with Obama leading by a statistically insignificant margin of 44%-43%. If these figures are correct, undecided voters comprise 12% of the electorate, assuming 1% goes to other candidates, an unusually high number for this late in the race.
The AP’s article noted the discrepancy from other polls showing Obama leading by 7% or more, and argued that at least one other poll, the George Washington University Battleground Poll, confirmed its results of a tied race.
If the other polls showing Obama leading by a significant margin are wrong then electoral vote maps like the one published by RealClearPolitics and Darryl’s analyses are meaningless.
AP also explained its divergent results by arguing the race has tightened since the third debate, which some journalists feel McCain won.
The AP survey did show a 10-point Obama lead among “all adults interviewed.” This fell to a 5-point lead among registered voters and a 1-point lead among likely voters. Thus, the AP poll paints a picture that McCain supporters are more likely to turn out.
One potentially large factor that could cause a polling organization to miss an important bloc of Obama voters is the fact that many young voters, who favor Obama by roughly a 60-40 split, don’t have landline phones. Contacting potential voters by cell phone is difficult because cell phone directories don’t exist. Another factor that can skew polling results is that a growing percentage of Americans refuse to talk to pollsters, which can damage the random nature of polling on which the accuracy of most polling methodologies depends. Voters willing to discuss their candidate preferences with pollsters may not necessarily be representative of the voting population.
Frankly, I don’t know what to make of conflicting polling figures. I’m a bit skeptical of polls, and the cautious side of my is reluctant to put too much store in them. Let’s say I have guarded confidence in the polls showing Obama a near-certain winner of this election. We all know the only poll that counts is the one on Nov. 4, and that pre-election surveys can be off for a variety of reasons.
That said, what I’ve seen in TV coverage is that McCain pulls crowds of about 20,000 and Obama’s crowds often number 100,000. What this suggests to me is that the people turning out for Obama’s campaign appearances want to see history being made so they can tell their grandkids about it. Look at the number of young children in the crowd; what that tells you is their parents are taking them to these events so when they grow up and have children they’ll be able to say, “I was there. I saw President Obama.” Kind of like a previous generation saying, “I saw Lincoln. I heard Lincoln give a speech.” What the crowds are telling us is that 5 times as many people think Obama will be the next president as those who think McCain’s furrowed angry face is the visage of a future president. When more people flock to the Ford Mustang than the Ford Edsel that’s gotta be telling you something.
We have received calls & mailers from the NRA and various faith-based groups in recent days.
McCain cannot compete with Obama’s money in the MSM battle…so he is obviously resorting to ground troops and supporting organizations to go at voters one at a time.
People are numb at all the Political Ads on TV.
McCain has a decent strategy to the finish line..but I still think it will be too little, too late Rog.
I also like McCain’s strategy of going after Pennsylvania considering how close it was in 2004, Murtha’s HUGE gaffe (ads all over Western PA. & PA. in general using Murtha’s own words).
That said, a McCain Victory can only be achieved with Devine Intervention. Palin is right, it’s in God’s Hands.
Frankly, I haven’t seen Republican’s so fired up in a long, long time. They are coming out of the Bush Hangover…fueled by comments by Biden & Murtha but also the clear realization of Obama’s Socialist Agenda evidenced by his proposed tax policies and “spread the welath” comment. These comments have added jet fuel to downtrodden Republicans. We have also received calls for McCain from local people in our little town that we don’t even know.
Republican’s have been historically BAD at getting adequate ground troops motivated. Appears that is not the case in the past week or so.
I’m waiting for today’s Rassmussen Poll. It was 4 pts. 2 days ago, but 6 yesterday. If it is still 6, I think this hype about McCain being close is bogus. I really think Rasmussen does an outstanding job. You KLOWNS criticize it because it is affiliated with FOX…but they have a pretty outstanding track record as far as polls go. I certainly wouldn’t put much credence in Stuart Elway!!
Right?
Today’s Rasmussen–
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Obama has this election in the bag. Huge numbers of Americans have already voted. Some Washington County’s have already received over 25% of their ballots back! I’m sure that is the same nationwide. McCain fell asleep at the switch for a couple critical weeks. Now he is firing on all cylinders….but appeal only to 75% or so of folks that haven’t vvoted yet…and most of them have made up their minds.
I expected this race to end up around 2-3 points up for Obama. I think it will more likely be around 5 points. Even with the Electoral College being the deciding factor, it is virtually impossible for McCain.
Good work on this Darryl.
FiveThirtyEight’s Tracking Poll Primer actually gives Rassmussen high marks.
Roger’s point about people not wanting to participate in telephone polls is a good point. Although we are on the “do not call list”, we still get “marketing” polls which are probably nothing more than attempts to put us on somebody’s sales lead list.
The last time I voluntarily participated in what purported to be a political poll, the last question was “and just for validation purposes, I need your social security number”, at which point I hung up.
Our current routine is to screen telephone calls, and only answer the ones from people we know. I suspect many others do the same, which might impact the polling.
What’s getting Republicans “fired up” isn’t anything Obama or Bidden have actually said. It’s the Republican attempts to demonize them.
I’ve mentioned before that I’m a Evangelical Protestant, so a lot of the harsher Republican campaign tactics get directed at me, in the presumption that I am a potential McCain voter who needs to be motivated to show up at the polls. Most of it in print is pretty ridiculous, but the stuff which isn’t in print is even worse.
Last week a guy nobody ever saw before showed up at our weekly Bible Study/Prayer Session, and at the end requested that we have prayer for “our nation” in this difficult time. Okay, that’s fine, but I was immediately suspicious at the use of what have become code words.
We had agreed months ago to have a “cease fire” on all political discussion in our group, inasmuch as that’s not the purpose of the meeting. As we were concluding a general prayer for specific requests, ending in a prayer for “our nation”, the guy chimes in and asks God to “protect us from the demonic influences which want to bring into power those who we know would kill our babies, make atheism the official religion of the land, and turn American into a Communist nation”. We barely opened our eyes and he was out the door, muttering something about having another “important meeting” to attend.
Sounds like a coordinated strategy to me, but even the hard-core Republicans in the group felt abused, and apologized to the rest of us for his conduct.
What is the American dream?
A) To be wildly rich.
B) To make enough money to raise your kids, own a home, have health care, have some vacations, and have a decent retirement.
It seems that the republicans are exclusively focused on A, to the exclusion of B.
How can everyone be wildly rich?
We cannot ALL win the lottery, invent an operating system, be blessed with the ability to play sports, get elected CEO, or be a Vice Presidential candidate.
Somebody has to work for the rich people to make and or keep them rich. At some point in time, the rich person will have to hire people, because they cannot do it all themselves. Are the underlings then supposed to quit to go become wildly rich too?
What is the American dream for you?
What do you think it is for your neighbors?
What poor ignorant cynical fails to understand is that “firing up” the republican base (the 25% loyal only to Bush and their wrongheaded interpretation of the bible) will alienate most of the independents. So while Palin has energized the wacko far right mindless sycophants, she has created a whole new set of democratic voters who have either been independent or defected from the anti-intellectual, racist, divisive and rich-people oriented campaign that McCain has run.
The result has been and will be a massive democratic turnout and victory with many life-long republicans voting for democtratic for the first of many times. Thank you Karl Rove and Sarah Palin for the new democratic majority!
Let’s win first.
blue john spews:
First, you must define a few of your terms…like wildly rich.
My goals have changed over the years. I suppose in my younger years, I did fantasize about being “wildly rich”. 4 Kids took care of that dream.
I embarked in a very Conservative investment plan in real estate and the stock market. I had the good fortune to have some good timing in buying & selling…and used leverage only a couple times.
Do I have enough to meet the needs of (B) as you define it? Yes.
But my goals have changed…it’s less about wealth accumulation and more about doing good things with what I have been blessed with.
I had lunch the other day with a friend and 3 of his buddies. One guy confessed he has lost $4 MILLION in the stock Market and a couple MILLION more in real estate ventures. He sold his Company in late 2001 for $35 Million and invested it very well. He is still a lot wealthier than I am…be he seemed so distraught and tied in knots.
bj, I don’t need Barrack Hussein Obama to re-distribute my wealth. We’ve done a pretty good job of it ourselves.
I will tell you that it was unanimous at the luch table, that if Obama is elected, we will curtail our charitable donations in areas other than Church, Food Bank & other charities we are convinced get virtually every dollar we give to those who need (in other words, those overwhelmingly staffed with Volunteers)
UGN will get ZERO. Don’t need tham to scrape off a % and them distribute to some charities I don’t support. We’ll give money direct to those we do.
Folks don’t realize the undesirable consequences of an Obama Presidency if he moves forward with his TAX THE RICH & CORPORATIONS and give more welfare.
Things like Charities will suffer….but also the investment of capital to create jobs & wealth WILL slow. I know you don’t believe it. You are hung up on this ECONOMY IS A ZERO-SUM GAME nonsense.
We need a system that rewards those who take risk and want to create jobs and increase the pie.
bj…you drank the Kool-Aid and are stuck in the Fabian Freeway of all must have the same. It will never work. It’s a slippery slope.
Here is another Rasmussen Poll that is quite interesting:
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrats’ Lead Slips in Generic Congressional Ballot
Thursday, October 23, 2008
You remind me of Tom Lykis and his manta of getting women. He has a very clear, very effective way of getting laid and it works, so long as you don’t have morals or want a family or commitments or love. Your economic model is like that. It’s very focused on making money, at the exclusion of family, morals or commitments.
Where in your system is the rewards for the cop, the kindergarten teacher, the soldier, the accountant, the engineer, etc? They are not taking risks and making new jobs. They are the support staff. Do they get nothing?
I want a system that does promote risk, but not as much as now. Now we are doing it at the expense of everyone else.
If a CEO gets a 5 million dollar bonus, and has to pay 4 mill in taxes, he’s STILL got a million dollars. And if the company knew they was going to have to pay 4 mill in taxes just for the CEO, maybe they would put that 5 mill into R&D and infrastructure and only pay him if he preformed and grew the company instead of gutted it for a quarter’s share value.
bluejohn spews:
Some cops make over $100,000 peryear with overtime plus unbelievable benefits in health/dental/retirement. Plus they have almost 100% job security from the Union.
Teachers by year 14 make around $58,000/year also with tremendous benefits for a 9-1/2-month work year (180 actual work days). Can’t fire them no matter how bad they are because of the Union!!
Accountants that are CPA’s make around $100k.
Engineers also make 6-figures.
Soldiers enlist. They are paid bonuses. They get an education Do you want to pay them more?
How much more?
I’m not sure what you are talking about bj. All your examples (except maybe soldiers) make more than a living wage and have excellent benefits.
Do you want to pay McDonald’s workers $30/hr.?
People who really want to make money in our system certainly can. Many who complain have not been disciplined in their education or are unwilling to sacrifice to get to the top.
Not our problem bj.
There will always be a stratified system for compensation…unless you are in the Obama Socialist System.
You sound like Karl Marx who said,
“From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.”
Is that what you want bj??
A system where we all work & risk to the maximum and then split the fruits???
Utopian Marxist BULLSHIT!
Pull your head outta yer ass…or whatever other dark, smelly place it may dwell.