Election Scorecard

100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 364 electoral votesMean of 174 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis had Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 360 to 178 electoral votes. If the election had been held yesterday, it almost certainly would have gone to Obama.

Today there were 17 new polls in 13 states released. The polls are something of a mixed bag, but Obama gets the better of ‘em.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins every one.
Obama gains back four electoral votes from yesterday for an average of 364 to McCain’s 174. Once again, an election held now would go for Obama with a near 100% chance.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.


  1. 1

    notaboomer spews:

    the comments in the last post are amazing. the opposition needed is to big money and big media and its coziness with the one party-two sub-party system. here from nyt:

    Arguably the biggest whales of all are the several dozen who contributed $70,000 or more to Mr. McCain. They included Marvin Gilliam, an executive at Cumberland Resources, a Virginia coal-mining company where several top officials made sizable contributions to Mr. McCain, as well as Mr. Gilliam’s wife, Marcia; Joe Ricketts, founder of the securities firm TD Ameritrade; and Meg Whitman, former chief executive of eBay and a prominent McCain surrogate, who contributed a total of $92,400, according to F.E.C. records, although some will apparently need to be refunded because of federal contribution limits.

    More than 500 donors contributed more than $30,000 each to Mr. Obama. They included James E. Rogers, chief executive of Duke Energy, a power company based in Charlotte, N.C.; Melanie Griffith, the actress; and John M. Noel, chief executive of Travel Guard, an affiliate of the insurance giant AIG.


  2. 2

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    RealClearPolitics’ electoral vote map has been frozen in place for the last month. RCP uses an average of all major national polls, so for this map to be wrong, all the pollsters’ methodologies have to be flawed. I don’t believe that’s the case, and I don’t see a way for McCain to win this election — it isn’t gonna happen. It just won’t. The math is now impossible. Oh sure, Obama might still lose Ohio, or Florida, or Virgina, or North Carolina — but even if he lost all of those states he’d still win the election. It’s over, folks. There’s nothing left except for McCain and Palin to slink back to their holes, and for their supporters to furl their swastika flags and slither back into the sewers they crawled out of.

  3. 4

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @1 While I appreciate your sentiments, we do need a reasonable opposition party, and unfortunately we’re not going to have that for some time into the future.

  4. 5

    YLB spews:

    The wingnuts are becoming increasingly scarce. We could usually depend on that idiot mutt Doofus to crawl out from under his rock every evening but even he is bowing to the inevitable:

    Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States and the Congress will remain in Democratic hands with a stronger majority.

    Eat shit wingnuts.

  5. 6

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    “Someone slashed the tires of at least 30 vehicles parked outside the Crown Coliseum on Sunday during a rally for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, authorities said.

    “Sheriff’s deputies are investigating. The tires were cut while people were inside the Crown Coliseum listening to speeches, said Maj. E. Wright of the Cumberland County Sheriff’s Office.”

    (Quoted from Fayetteville (NC) Observer under fair use.)

  6. 7

    YLB spews:

    I propose that the loyal opposition be Progressive Democrats. Let’s face it. There could be a working conservative majority in the Congress come January if the R’s get their act together and hold the blue dogs feet to the fire.

    Barack Obama is a pragmatist. He won’t go along with the progressive wing of the party unless there is no threat from Corporate cash to his presidency. So guess what? We’ll have to force his hand on more than a few issues.

    More and better Dems – always!

  7. 8

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Rightwing blogs are claiming tonight that a McCain campaign bus was hit by a .22 bullet and paintballs in southern New Mexico today. This report is clearly based on hearsay, i.e., the source didn’t see the alleged damage but claims to have heard about it at a “Stop Obama” rally from someone who claims to have heard about it from McCain staffers. I haven’t been able to find any confirmation of this story in reputable media, so this story has to be put in the “internet rumor” category for now.

  8. 9

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Sam Reed Refutes TV Station’s Claims About Felon Voters

    Washington Secretary of State Sam Reed issued the following e-mail about a recent TV news story:

    ” … Last Tuesday, a story was run on … on KIRO TV alleging that the Secretary of State’s Office is allowing 24,000 felons to illegally register to vote ….

    ” … This report was … reckless …. But, … a few of the blogs have gone wild – particularly the Evergreen Freedom Foundation’s blog and — to a lesser degree – Sound Politics. Also, Bobby Williams has gone on talk radio to blast me and my office. … I ask for your help to respond to those blogs and talk radio shows. …

    “So, what are the problems with this? Here is a succinct summary:

    “1. KIRO’s assertion is reckless.
    “2. They acknowledge they have no proof these voters are ineligible.
    “3. We cannot deprive citizens of their right to vote based on inconclusive evidence.
    “4. The KIRO list is unreliable because:
    a. The state Dept of Corrections has removed from their supervision 99% of the people on this list (based on the 6,000 sample we checked);
    b. Undoubtedly most have paid their debts to society and are eligible to vote;
    c. On many others, the state has no way of determining whether their rights have been restored;
    d. Many may not have been felons to begin with.
    “5. Our voter database project was rigorous and used every reliable resource.
    “6. We have removed over 480,000 ineligible voter registrations.
    “7. Among that number, we found and removed 11,600 felons from the rolls.
    “8. We have publicly called attention to the shortcomings of our state’s records.
    “9. Washington State is a national leader in creating the cleanest, most modern voter database management possible.

    “Why was it reckless? Because the list they used consists primarily of old, closed files of the Department of Corrections going back into the 1800s – with most from the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s. When we looked at a 6000 name sample of the list they used, it became obvious that there are multiple problems with using such a list – including the fact that many were convicted of misdemeanors (therefore not losing voting rights), many were convicted as juveniles (therefore not losing voting rights), and most probably had their voting rights restored by now.

    “When we asked [the TV reporter] if he checked to see if these people had their voting rights restored by Superior Courts or the Board of Prison and Paroles or governors, he said no: ‘We have no way to use a computer to show which felons may have had their rights restored…’ …

    “When we looked at their list, the first person is from Franklin County, was born in 1918, was convicted in 1956, and has voted since 1962. …

    “After their lengthy search for someone who is a felon and is voting, they came up with Tracy Wilkinson from Snohomish County, who … [was] convicted of a misdemeanor – therefore not losing her voting rights. …

    ” … [T]he Evergreen Freedom Foundation wants us to go through that list of 24,000 and take anybody off the rolls whose birthday matches … no matter whether they were ever convicted of a felony, whether they were juveniles, and … whether their voting rights were restored.

    “The most recent EFF message was that I supported the Madison case to loosen up the requirements for convicted felons – in spite of the fact that I was the defendant in the case …. The same writer attacks me for complying with the Superior Court ruling when I lost the first round. He doesn’t seem to understand that … it was the law until we successfully appealed it.

    “Unfortunately, they are succeeding in riling up their troops throughout the state. So, I would appreciate it if you would defend me by writing on the EFF blog, the Sound Politics blog, and any of the others. …

    [Signed] Sam”

    (Quoted from KIRO web site under fair use)

  9. 10

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    BREAKING NEWS — Obama Cancels Appearances To Visit ‘Gravely Ill’ Grandmother

    Sen. Barack Obama has cancelled all of his campaign appearances for the rest of this week and is flying to Hawaii to be with his maternal grandmother, who has fallen “gravely” ill and reportedly is dying. Obama is scheduled to resume campaigning on Saturday.

    Both of Obama’s parents are deceased, as is his maternal grandfather. His grandmother helped raised him, and Obama has said she was an important influence in his life.

  10. 11

    Frick n Frack spews:

    Hi All! I’m back. Computer crashed & it’s been a LOOOOOONG year.

    My Opinion is that Obama is making the right choice. His Grandma & Grandpa raised him. I just so desperately hope that she can stay alive long enough to see him voted into the highest job in the land!

    To a whole lot of ‘regular’ folks, women in particular, showing that respect and caring will go a lot further than giving some speech for a couple of hours in front of 100,000 people – putting his walk in his talk. If he can kind of ‘suspend’ his campaign for such an important person in his life means he most likely could honestly care about all the rest of us Americans. More able to get the USA back up from the dredges & depths the Repubs have shoveled us into.

    My respects to Obama and his family in this hard time. Glad he has his priorities in the correct place. Just hoping she can hold on just a few days more just to see what a success she helped to create.

  11. 12

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Today’s Rasmussen–
    Tuesday, October 21, 2008

    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%.

    These numbers reflect little of the potential fallout of the Obama/Ayers, Obama is Socialist, Biden idiotic GUARANTEE of a world incident in 6 months to test the mettle of the UNTEST Obama etc.

    While I still believe Obama will win, I look for this race to tighten even more. I think Obama will win because he is outspending McCain 8 to 1 in Virginia…a key State….and by nearly that margin in the other battleground states. Money matters. Had Obama not LIED and kept his word about Campaign spending, this race would certainly be a toss-up right now.

  12. 13

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Joe “the Idiot” Biden spews:

    Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., on Sunday guaranteed that if elected, Sen. Barack Obama., D-Ill., will be tested by an international crisis within his first six months in power and he will need supporters to stand by him as he makes tough, and possibly unpopular, decisions.

    “Mark my words,” the Democratic vice presidential nominee warned at the second of his two Seattle fundraisers Sunday. “It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking.

    You KLOWNS had your fun with Palin but here is your guy….turning a sure thing into a slugfest! It’s like Obama-Biden had McCain-Palin totally on the ropes….and Biden turns around & punches Obama in the face. He’s my kinda KLOWN.
    *Admitted multiple Plagarizer
    *Lies about his helicopter being forced down in Afghanistan by enemy gunfire when John Kerry WHO WAS WITH HIM says NO, it was forced down by bad weather.
    *Lies about being in the midst of enemy shelling while in Iraq when in reality the shelling was 50 miles away!!

    Great V-P…..Liar, just like Obama

  13. 14

    YLB spews:

    little of the potential fallout of the Obama/Ayers

    Right wing bullshit… So tiresome… People whose small minds are so easily warped by fear.

  14. 15

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Fear? Are you trying to say, “The Only Thing We Have To Fear is Fear Itself!”
    Sorry YLB, that line has been taken.

    Certainly questioning Obama’s past affiliations is fair game. Obama understated his relationship with Ayers. Why??
    Do you really think a loyal opposition is going to just let this thing go when the more you dig, the more you find??

    Obama is putting himself in the position where if he fails to come down hard on terrorism, his Ayers affiliation will rear it’s head.
    You can count on that.

    Loyal opposition do not evaporate over a lost election YLB. You can count on that too.

  15. 18

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @12 Cynical, are you really this stupid, ignorant, and ill-informed? Do you actually believe the crap spewed by the Republican noise machine? Or are you just trying to pull chains around here?

    Yes, Ayers is an odious character. Everyone agrees on that. He should have done prison time, and would have, but for prosecutorial misconduct and/or incompetence. That’s the fault of the prosecutors, not Obama. It’s not Obama’s responsibility to judge the guy, or put him behind bars, or punish him. That was the state’s responsibility, and the state’s lawyers botched it. That happened back when Obama was a little boy.

    Whether you like it or not, Bill Ayers is a free man. He lives in Obama’s neighborhood — that doesn’t make Obama a terrorist. Obama served with him on a couple of (Republican funded) committees (along with a bunch of Republicans) but that doesn’t make him a socialist — or a Republican. I’ve served on committees with Republicans but that doesn’t make me a Republican.

    Jiminy Christmas, is it possible you’re really this brain-dead? Or are you so partisan that you swallow whole anything the wingnut propaganda factory manufactures without an iota of critical thinking on your part?

    Give us a fucking break from your mindless prattling; this is getting tiresome.

  16. 19

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @15 “Obama is putting himself in the position where if he fails to come down hard on terrorism, his Ayers affiliation will rear it’s head. You can count on that.”

    What we can count on is noise from the marbles rattling around inside your empty skull.

  17. 20

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Terrorism control is a major part of Obama’s platform. He wants to chase ‘em all over Afghanistan and Pakistan…remember.

    If he doesn’t follow thru on his comments, you can count on folks bringing up Ayers and tying it to his weakness. Why wouldn’t that happen?
    You did similiar things to Bush regarding oil etc.

  18. 22

    Steve spews:

    @21 Our PIN-HEADED KLOWN, Mr. Cynical, beat out Marvin for the Stupid Troll award last week. It took a heavy case of teh stupid to pull that one off.