Well…a lot can happen in a month. I’ve been rather negligent in gathering polling data and doing these analyses, so here we are on Election Day Eve. I’ll post an analysis based on polls collected through about 5pm today. If there are more polls tomorrow morning, there will be a final analysis tomorrow early afternoon or so.
My last analysis, about a month ago, found Democrats “in the lead” with a 97% probability of taking the Senate (if the election had been held then, that is). Lots and lots of new polls have been published. And it seems that pollsters have been procreating new baby pollsters between election seasons.
Taken altogether, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority only 1,086 times, (and there were 12,193 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 86,721 times.
What this suggests is that Democrats have a 13.3% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 86.7% probability of controlling the Senate, based only on the last two weeks of polling data (when available…older polls are used if necessary). That is quite the shift over a month.
There is a bit of good news for Democrats. Incumbent Mark Kelly (D-AZ) has a solid lead over his opponent, Blake Masters. Likewise, Colorado, New Hampshire and Washington seem safe for the Democratic incumbents.
Things are not so good for Democrats in Georgia, where Sen Raphael Warnock (D) is, essentially, tied with Herschel Walker. Bizarre, huh? In Nevada, Sen Cortez Masto’s (D) race has turned around and Adam Laxalt (R) might well be looking for a flat in D.C. soon.
Likely Democratic pick-ups have all but vanished. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH-13) once led Republican J.D. Vance for the Ohio Senate race. But Vance has led in 7 of the 8 polls taken in the past 14 days. In Pennsylvania, the Senate race between John Fetterman (D) and Mehmet Oz (R) has tightened, and Oz now holds a very slight lead. Wisconsin? Fuggitaboudit. Sen. Ron Johnson (R) is headed back to D.C. Florida? Not even close. Sen. Marco Rubio (R) will have the privilege of six more years of the job he hates.
Are the polls underestimating chances for Democrats? Maybe. The buzz in the poll aggregation community is that right-leaning pollsters have “flooded the zone” with polls bearing right-skewed results over the past several weeks. Why would they even do that? Wouldn’t that just make them look bad after the election? Either way, tomorrow is going to be “interesting.”
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*
- 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 13.3%, Republicans control the Senate 86.7%.
- Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 48.5 ( 1.0)
- Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 51.5 ( 1.0)
- Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 48 (47, 50)
- Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 52 (50, 53)
Expected outcomes from the simulations:
- Democratic seats w/no election: 34
- Independent seats w/no election: two
- Republican seats w/no election: 29
- Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 12
- Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 21
- Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: two
- Contested Republican seats likely to switch: none
This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Democrat | 44 | |||
| Strong Democrat | 2 | 46 | ||
| Leans Democrat | 2 | 2 | 48 | |
| Weak Democrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 |
| Weak Republican | 1 | 1 | 1 | 52 |
| Leans Republican | 1 | 1 | 51 | |
| Strong Republican | 9 | 50 | ||
| Safe Republican | 41 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| # | Sample | Percent | Percent | Democrat | Republican | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | @ | polls | size | Democrat | Republican | % wins | % wins |
| AL | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AK | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AZ | 16 | 11772 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 94.5 | 5.5 | |
| AR | 1& | 451 | 32.2 | 67.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| CA | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| CO | 4 | 3028 | 54.8 | 45.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| CT | 1 | 773 | 66.2 | 33.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| FL | 7 | 4408 | 46.2 | 53.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| GA | 15 | 12247 | 49.9 | 50.1 | 46.3 | 53.7 | |
| HI | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| ID | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| IL | 1 | 441 | 59.2 | 40.8 | 99.5 | 0.5 | |
| IN | 1 | 615 | 43.7 | 56.3 | 1.4 | 98.6 | |
| IA | 1 | 753 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.8 | 99.2 | |
| KS | 1 | 868 | 37.6 | 62.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| KY | 1& | 588 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| LA | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| MD | 1& | 666 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| MO | 5 | 4295 | 44.0 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| NV | 9 | 6281 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 2.5 | 97.5 | |
| NH | 9 | 10733 | 50.7 | 49.3 | 84.4 | 15.6 | |
| NY | 5 | 4024 | 60.1 | 39.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NC | 7 | 6807 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| ND | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| OH | 8 | 7425 | 46.9 | 53.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OK | 3 | 2024 | 41.6 | 58.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OK | 3 | 1984 | 38.8 | 61.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OR | 2 | 2171 | 58.2 | 41.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| PA | 14 | 11479 | 49.8 | 50.2 | 37.0 | 63.0 | |
| SC | 1& | 546 | 40.7 | 59.3 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| SD | 1& | 1275 | 31.8 | 68.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| UT | 2 | 1242 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| VT | 1& | 987 | 66.4 | 33.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| WA | 3 | 2183 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 76.1 | 23.9 | |
| WI | 8 | 6410 | 48.5 | 51.5 | 3.8 | 96.2 |
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
We’d be better off if Trump had been re-elected.
This country would be in better shape if there weren’t Dumbfucks like @1
God bless President Joe Biden!
Darryl, comments #1, #2, and #3 are off-topic and should be removed.
538 final projection is a 59% likelihood thst the Senate flips.
I find it humorous that HA’s worst abuser of off-topic commentary wants others @ 3 to be censored for it.
Grief gets sillier as one ages, I suppose.
I voted. Took about 20 minutes. Line of about 20 people.
I think the only way you answer this with any confidence is on a state-by-state basis.
And while it’s possible in a few cases, I don’t think professional polls deliberately introduce bias that skews in terms of partisan support. I think they just happen to have strong biases of their own that influence what data sets they choose for developing their models of turnout and voter tendencies.
And the reason these biases don’t make them “look bad” is that we are all, but especially the media are far too focused on outcome. When every race is a tossup a poll has at least a 50/50 shot at “calling the election correctly”. Never mind that a poll called a race three points outside the MOE and it finished with a 1200 vote margin for the winner. We still call that a “good” poll. It might not be.
The polls could be underestimating Republicans.
After being called out the way they have been by my feeble, senile, imbecilic president and by others on the left, there is a buzz that a substantial number of GOP voters polled won’t answer.
They’ll just show up and vote.
We’ll find out soon enough whether the polls are off in one direction, the other direction, or are accurate this time around.
This is true. For the very same reasons.
And so this also is not evidence of malign intent on the part of pollsters.
Again, I think the only way to understand this with any confidence would be to take each poll on a state-by-state basis. “Kansas” may not correctly predict changes in turnout nor changes in voter perception of the issues in other states. Past year state level polls have been pretty inaccurate in a few states with key races this year.
@6 – @8 Or maybe the polls are inaccurate because a lot of jaded people simply don’t respond to surveys anymore, so the polls only capture the small percentage still willing to talk to pollsters?
@4 The topic of this blog is Republicans suck, and all my comments are about that.
More than buzz that rate of turnout among White voters is declining rapidly. I happen to think that this data from influential surveys is overstated. ACS tends to show only small declines in White voter turnout rate. But when coupled with more significant declines in vote share it can make a big difference in certain states and districts where certain demographic trends.
9,
It’s a big problem for a lot of polls. Especially so for polls focused on swing states. The level of political advertising, campaign, party, and PAC fundraising, and polling that targets voters in swing states is probably unimaginable to those of us in safely Democratic states. In some of these states poll responses are below 4% and dropping, as these voters are over-saturated with all of it.
Different groups of voters may respond differently to that level of saturation. I personally think that the approach of Stacy Abrams in Georgia has been very smart, well tested, and based on proven techniques. It has less to do with polling or persuasion though. The orgs she set up in GA focus on registration and turnout in a very sophisticated and individualized way. So, for example, the ballot shredding that took place in Cobb County over the weekend has already been mostly cured. The county elections director responsible for destroying the absentee applications of thousands of Black voters was sued immediately and a judgment obtained in under 48 hours. In the mean time nearly every single one of the voters affected was transported to the county elections office to cast a provisional ballot, and the county (reluctantly) was forced to deliver replacement mail ballots directly to each of the remaining voters by end of business yesterday.
They aren’t nearly as focused on persuasion as they are on tracking voters and their ballots. Because that’s what Democrats need to do to overcome Republican state and county officials who burn or shred ballots. The effort allows the targeted voters to tune out the noise and focus on getting their ballot counted and overcoming all the vote burning and shredding. And the results have lasting effects. Once voters are recruited into that kind of effort it becomes a matter of principle for most of them.
The buzz in the poll aggregation community is that right-leaning pollsters have “flooded the zone” with polls bearing right-skewed results over the past several weeks. Why would they even do that?
Something tells me it’s not the buzz in the polling community. Mariners fans in the stands have all sorts of ideas that make zero sense in the dugout.
If the right-leaning polls are about something other than a true interest in the determination of the electorate’s position at any given time, I’ll offer two possibilities:
1. To keep the money flowing in.
2. To keep same-team partisan voter interest up.
Wouldn’t that just make them look bad after the election?
I dunno, Goldy looked pretty bad with his “bullshit polls” screed just before the bottom dropped out of the Democrat Party in 2016, and that doesn’t seem to have shut him up in the six years since.
Shills gonna shill, and dumbfucks gonna dumbfuck.
@13 “dumbfucks gonna dumbfuck”
Nobody works harder than you to prove that. You’re way out on a limb with all your obsessing over polls. I don’t know what’s going to happen, so I’m waiting for the voting results.
@ 14
You don’t have to wait, Robinhood Dumbfuck Rabbit. There’s plenty already happening:
Since Steve’s being an asshole on the Monday thread, I’ll treat this one as open insofar as midterms are concerned.
I will not be pleased to see Abigail Spanberger lose her race in VA, if she goes down today. She was one of the very few who tried to warn y’all libbies after the House lost Dem seats in ’20:
After today, the Democrat House members who will be left are largely pieces of shit. The good ones were either kicked out by their fellow Democrats or dragged down by the behavior of their fellow Democrats.
I’ll have something to say about a Third Way piece that just came out, later today or tomorrow. YLB likes her some Third Way, as that group is the one who chooses to blame black inner city shooting deaths on the GOP governors of states rather than the more obvious reason, that being the overwhelmingly Democrat local leaders of those violent cities. YLB might have to rethink her fondness for Third Way after reading its latest.
Maybe fascist wasn’t the best word for Democrats to use, whaddya think?
The last time I looked, fascists were just as mean and nasty as the socialists and commies. Some Democrats calling a Republican fascist is just as ridiculous a some idiot Republican calling a Democrat socialist or communist.
as that group is the one who chooses to blame black inner city shooting deaths on the GOP governors of states
That’s a fucking lie..
Why are you here?
To debase yourself.. please continue… just entertainment for the rest of us folks.
@ 19
That’s a fucking lie..
YLB, I brought receipts, girlfriend.
You (kreepshit) says: to blame black inner city shooting deaths on the GOP governors of states
Third way says: Republican-controlled states AND cities.
i.e. ALL levels of repuke controlled goverment.. Governors, legislature, municipal…
Tell us, how is replacing dem senators with repukes going to change that? It’s not working worth crap in MO.
you lose..
debase yourself further..
Actually, I’d rather see a messy primary and a Democrat come out of it who actually has a chance to win in 2024.
Once the early polling is in, she’ll bail on 2024 like the chickenshit she was when she bailed before 2020.
Put Tim Scott on the GOP ballot and any advantage Momala might have by being a woman is neutralized by being unlikable and incompetent.
Bloodbath in Nevada, and I don’t mean the Democrat who stabbed an investigative journalist to death in Las Vegas:
Why so few 18-24? Aren’t they excited about all the free money First Vegetable Joe Biden will throw at them? Or do they realize that Cortez Masto is spineless and useless?
Since Steve’s being an asshole on the Monday thread
I treat spineless, treasonous fascist bitches like you the way you should be treated. If you’ve got a problem with that, I don’t fucking care.
President. Kamala. Harris.
Any Democrat who ever wants to see a current battleground state flip blue again won’t tolerate the attempt.
Douglas Emhoff: ‘Take my wife. Please.”
The idea of her as president is already a joke. And hey, there’s still 26 months during which we might get to experience it!
Steve, in about eight hours.
(Spoiler: It didn’t die that night, either.)
Don’t cry, Blue Boy.
Fetterman farts to the beat as First Vegetable Joe Biden keeps time.
Just a taste of all the fun in store for Democrats at tonight’s victory parties in battleground states.
How badly is today going for Democrats?
Epstein Victim Says She May Have Made a Mistake in Accusing Dershowitz
Not only is Dershowitz correct about being falsely accused, he’s correct about Democrats, too.
If the mail boost was huge we wouldn’t have union spokespersons begging for people to use drop boxes today.
No Harry Reid to save your asses anymore, NV Dems.
In about eight more hours, HA libbies, it’s gonna be OK to deny election results once again.
Always look at the bright side of your life.
Then you take a bow, Steve.
Triggering the thin-skinned Nazi is a patriotic service.
@16 “After today, the Democrat House members who will be left are largely pieces of shit.”
After today, all the Republican House members left will be fascist pieces of shit.
@17 Got a better term for someone who admires dictators, wants to eliminate due process, and jail reporters? And the party that backs him? It fits quite well, thank you.
@18 “Some Democrats calling a Republican fascist is just as ridiculous a some idiot Republican calling a Democrat socialist or communist.”
Republicans do call Democrats “socialists” and “communists,” it is ridiculous, and they are fascists.
@20 Not sure what you’re trying to prove, but looks to me like you demonstrated violent crime is worse under Republican governors and mayors; or, at least, they’re less effective at combating it (or maybe don’t care and don’t try).
@32 He’s bump-stock triggered, alright. Kudos to whoever did it.
Don’t cry, Blue Boy.
I dunno, how about I shit on your face instead? After all, you enjoyed it the last time I did it. Me too.
Michael Steel is a partisan hack.
How’s Shiver doing?
Is he shivering? Poor thing….no Pom Poms and now feeling a bit with a chill.
A FOX News poll just released said that 89% of the those polled thought Doctor Dumbfuck was a fucking moron, the other 11% weren’t sure and felt they needed to ask the horse.
While we’re talking polling misfires, OK governor probably should be discussed.