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Biden is still leading in today’s analysis. Last week, the score was 359 to 179 electoral votes (on average). Today, after 10,000 simulated elections, Biden receives, on average 348 to Trump’s 190 electoral votes.
The difference largely arises from Ohio, where one poll has dropped out and one new poll has been released. Now the three current polls give Trump a 51.3% to 48.7% advantage over Biden, suggesting he would win the state now with an 82% probability. Here is the polling in Ohio to date:
That 4th Marist poll with Biden up +4 dropped out and a new Emerson University poll was released with Trump up +3. Biden won every poll taken in 2018 and 2019, but the candidates have led in two polls apiece in 2020.
Florida is another interesting case. The collection of 4 current polls gives Biden a 51.6% to 48.4% lead over Trump, suggesting Biden would win the state now with a 98.8% probability. The long-term polling shows somewhat mixed results, but Biden leads in the most recent 5 polls. So far, in Florida polling, Biden has led in 13, Trump in 6 and there is one tie.
Finally, let’s look at Wisconsin. You may recall that in 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by less than 23,000 votes. With only one current poll in hand, Biden leads Trump 57.2% to 42.8%, suggesting Biden would win a Wisconsin election now with a probability greater than 99%. The large margin is misleading in the larger contest of the total polling for the state:
There have been 31 polls testing a Biden–Trump election, all taken since March of 2019. Biden has led in 25 of the polls and Trump in six. But most of the leads are well within the margin of error. Biden has led in the last 6 consecutive polls. The net result is that Wisconsin still feels like a swing state with an edge for Biden.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):
- 335 electoral votes with a 7.62% probability
- 341 electoral votes with a 4.57% probability
- 338 electoral votes with a 4.51% probability
- 351 electoral votes with a 4.42% probability
- 334 electoral votes with a 4.06% probability
- 353 electoral votes with a 3.56% probability
- 354 electoral votes with a 2.94% probability
- 344 electoral votes with a 2.92% probability
- 350 electoral votes with a 2.89% probability
- 337 electoral votes with a 2.48% probability
After 10,000 simulations:
- Biden wins greater than 99.9%, Trump wins less than 0.01%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Biden: 348.2 (19.0)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 189.8 (19.0)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Biden: 345 (318, 392)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 193 (146, 220)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Biden | 192 | |||
| Strong Biden | 136 | 328 | ||
| Leans Biden | 7 | 7 | 335 | |
| Weak Biden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 335 |
| Weak Trump | 0 | 0 | 0 | 203 |
| Leans Trump | 84 | 84 | 203 | |
| Strong Trump | 50 | 119 | ||
| Safe Trump | 69 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 1 | 1 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Biden | Trump | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2 | Votes | polls | Votes | Biden | Trump | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 2* | 1085 | 39.4 | 60.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 1* | 272 | 47.1 | 52.9 | 25.3 | 74.7 | ||
| AZ | 11 | 1 | 570 | 54.7 | 45.3 | 93.8 | 6.2 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 604 | 38.4 | 61.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 2 | 1628 | 68.6 | 31.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 2 | 881 | 60.4 | 39.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CT | 7 | 2 | 1628 | 60.5 | 39.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DE | 3 | 1* | 394 | 58.1 | 41.9 | 98.7 | 1.3 | ||
| DC | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| FL | 29 | 4 | 10324 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 98.8 | 1.2 | ||
| GA | 16 | 3 | 1966 | 49.4 | 50.6 | 36.2 | 63.8 | ||
| HI | 4 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| ID | 4 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| IL | 20 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| IN | 11 | 1 | 929 | 42.8 | 57.2 | 0.2 | 99.9 | ||
| IA | 6 | 1 | 1149 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 29.8 | 70.2 | ||
| KS | 6 | 1* | 1442 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| KY | 8 | 2* | 1260 | 41.3 | 58.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| LA | 8 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| ME | 2 | 1* | 819 | 55.3 | 44.7 | 98.6 | 1.4 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 1* | 459 | 60.3 | 39.7 | 99.9 | 0.2 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 1* | 438 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 69.6 | 30.4 | ||
| MD | 10 | 1* | 682 | 63.2 | 36.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 2 | 1546 | 66.2 | 33.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 11 | 7939 | 53.2 | 46.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MN | 10 | 1* | 704 | 56.8 | 43.2 | 99.6 | 0.4 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1 | 442 | 43.7 | 56.3 | 3.2 | 96.8 | ||
| MO | 10 | 2* | 1636 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| MT | 3 | 1 | 390 | 46.7 | 53.3 | 18.6 | 81.4 | ||
| NE | 2 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE1 | 1 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE2 | 1 | 1 | 417 | 55.9 | 44.1 | 95.5 | 4.5 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NV | 6 | 1 | 717 | 52.2 | 47.8 | 79.6 | 20.4 | ||
| NH | 4 | 1 | 750 | 54.5 | 45.5 | 95.8 | 4.2 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 3 | 2042 | 60.8 | 39.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NM | 5 | 1 | 929 | 56.5 | 43.5 | 99.7 | 0.3 | ||
| NY | 29 | 3 | 2092 | 65.5 | 34.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 7 | 6037 | 51.3 | 48.7 | 92.3 | 7.7 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1* | 372 | 40.9 | 59.1 | 0.6 | 99.4 | ||
| OH | 18 | 3 | 2345 | 48.7 | 51.3 | 18.4 | 81.6 | ||
| OK | 7 | 1* | 450 | 36.7 | 63.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OR | 7 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| PA | 20 | 8 | 5706 | 52.1 | 47.9 | 98.8 | 1.1 | ||
| RI | 4 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| SC | 9 | 1* | 984 | 46.7 | 53.3 | 8.0 | 92.0 | ||
| SD | 3 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| TN | 11 | 1* | 588 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| TX | 38 | 4 | 3720 | 48.7 | 51.3 | 14.1 | 85.9 | ||
| UT | 6 | 2 | 1958 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| VA | 13 | 1 | 747 | 55.4 | 44.6 | 98.5 | 1.5 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1 | 530 | 57.2 | 42.8 | 99.3 | 0.7 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 495 | 33.3 | 66.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| WI | 10 | 8 | 5520 | 51.4 | 48.6 | 92.4 | 7.6 | ||
| WY | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
This chart can’t be right. I don’t believe Trump has a 0.7% chance of winning Washington. The odds of the Cascadian Subduction Zone rupturing and everything west of the Cascades sliding into the Pacific Ocean before November 3 are much lower than that.
Roger @ 1,
That’s based on a single poll of 530 people, so it is likely a case of “need more data.” I only use the last month of polls as “current polls” in the analysis.
Here is the total polling in Washington State:
So it looks like Biden is doing just fine here.
As for State elections for most positions, national and state-wide, the voters always vote for Democrats. Republicans only win in smaller contests here, and mostly in Eastern Washington.
@3
Misspelled “Obvious.” Sorry about that.
The 0.7% is the amount of Russian vote tampering.
3,
Here’s hoping Rapepublicans continue to think exactly the way you do.
I’ll admit that it’s getting harder and harder. But statewide polling of “Leftist” states clearly indicate that the right “not a Democrat” candidate, using the right messaging and strategy can win a statewide race for Governor or US Senate in these states. That starts by recognizing that it requires a statewide strategy.
Remember there is no electoral college or bizarre anti-democratic “winner-take-all” laws for these races. A Rapepublican candidate does not have to win an urban county or district. But they have to go after the fearful, conservative, reactionary, racist voters in those counties. And polling and big data (and the NRA stickers) tell us again and again that they exist. Turning them out in numbers while still appealing to more moderate voters is the key.
Your state seems to have suffered from particularly severe benign neglect and abandonment after nominating Pat Robertson for President in 1988. I think that scared the shit out of national Rapepublicans.
Can’t say I blame them.