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For my previous analysis (on Monday) Vice President Joe Biden had a solid lead over President Donald Trump with an average of 363 to 175 electoral votes. Since then, there have been 52 new polls released. Most are state polls, but we do have a new polls for each of Maine’s congressional districts and Nebraska’s second congressional district.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 366 to Trump’s 172 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning. Biden’s small bump is pretty meaningless—such shifts are normal variation as old polls “age out” after they are more than a month old and new polls drop into the analyses.
Trump has made gains in three states, including a new poll in Arkansas bumping him from a 57% probability of taking the state to a 75% probability of taking the state. Trump cuts into Biden’s lead in Maine’s 2nd congressional district, where Biden drops from 90% to a 82% probability of taking the state. Finally two new polls in Montana, including a remarkable Trump+13.4 Emerson poll, brings Trump up to a 98% probability of taking that state.
Biden made gains in five states. Two new polls gives us a total of eight current polls for Iowa, and Trump’s 63% chance has flipped into a 65% chance Biden would take the state today.
Biden also gains ground in Nebraska’s second congressional district with a new Biden+11 poll joining two other recent polls with Biden leading to boost his chances from 87% to 98%. This district went Republican in 2016 and 2012, but narrowly went for Obama in 2008. Two new Nevada polls give us a total of six in the Silver state, and Biden leads in every one of them. His chances have increased from 98% to 100% probability of winning an election held today.
North Carolina is close, but most of the polls are in Biden’s favor. There are twenty current polls and Biden leads in 16, Trump in 2, with two ties. Here is what the last month of polling looks like in North Carolina:
Ohio is even closer than North Carolina. A new Biden+1 poll gives us eight in all, with Trump leading in three, Biden leading in four, and one tie. The margins are small, and each candidate has a 50% chance of winning an election there today:
Here is the long term picture made from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 08-Oct-2019 to 08-Oct-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).
For an election held today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] generated by the simulated elections:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):
- 357 electoral votes with a 6.15% probability
- 375 electoral votes with a 4.95% probability
- 363 electoral votes with a 3.58% probability
- 358 electoral votes with a 3.12% probability
- 360 electoral votes with a 3.03% probability
- 376 electoral votes with a 3.00% probability
- 381 electoral votes with a 2.70% probability
- 351 electoral votes with a 2.62% probability
- 359 electoral votes with a 2.59% probability
- 366 electoral votes with a 2.59% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Biden wins greater than 99.9%, Trump wins less than 0.1%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Biden: 366.2 (17.8)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 171.8 (17.8)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Biden: 364 (335, 413)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 174 (125, 203)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Biden | 270 | |||
| Strong Biden | 51 | 321 | ||
| Leans Biden | 36 | 36 | 357 | |
| Weak Biden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 357 |
| Weak Trump | 18 | 18 | 18 | 181 |
| Leans Trump | 24 | 24 | 163 | |
| Strong Trump | 92 | 139 | ||
| Safe Trump | 47 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 1 | 1 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Biden | Trump | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2 | Votes | polls | Votes | Biden | Trump | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1 | 1008 | 39.6 | 60.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 2 | 1209 | 48.6 | 51.4 | 25.5 | 74.5 | ||
| AZ | 11 | 23 | 12770 | 52.1 | 47.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 799 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 34.0 | 66.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 4 | 8911 | 69.4 | 30.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 4* | 2675 | 55.5 | 44.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CT | 7 | 2* | 1494 | 62.5 | 37.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DE | 3 | 1 | 737 | 62.0 | 38.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DC | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| FL | 29 | 21 | 17911 | 52.1 | 47.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| GA | 16 | 11 | 7445 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 75.4 | 24.6 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 829 | 65.9 | 34.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 1* | 565 | 36.6 | 63.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| IL | 20 | 1 | 1120 | 57.1 | 42.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 1* | 950 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| IA | 6 | 8 | 5120 | 50.4 | 49.6 | 64.7 | 35.3 | ||
| KS | 6 | 2 | 1431 | 45.8 | 54.2 | 1.1 | 98.9 | ||
| KY | 8 | 2 | 1843 | 39.3 | 60.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1* | 540 | 46.7 | 53.3 | 13.7 | 86.3 | ||
| ME | 2 | 6 | 4079 | 58.2 | 41.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 5 | 1834 | 64.7 | 35.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 5 | 1548 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 81.8 | 18.2 | ||
| MD | 10 | 2 | 1310 | 66.3 | 33.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 1* | 745 | 69.5 | 30.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 18 | 11569 | 53.9 | 46.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MN | 10 | 8 | 5503 | 54.6 | 45.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1 | 951 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 12.8 | 87.2 | ||
| MO | 10 | 2 | 1613 | 47.1 | 52.9 | 4.7 | 95.3 | ||
| MT | 3 | 3 | 1743 | 45.6 | 54.4 | 0.3 | 99.7 | ||
| NE | 2 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE1 | 1 | 1* | 376 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 39.4 | 60.6 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 3 | 1258 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 97.7 | 2.3 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NV | 6 | 6 | 4289 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NH | 4 | 5 | 3116 | 54.6 | 45.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 1 | 451 | 57.9 | 42.1 | 99.1 | 0.9 | ||
| NM | 5 | 1 | 816 | 57.6 | 42.4 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1 | 453 | 67.8 | 32.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 20 | 14828 | 51.2 | 48.8 | 98.5 | 1.5 | ||
| ND | 3 | 2 | 870 | 40.8 | 59.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OH | 18 | 8 | 6206 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 49.6 | 50.4 | ||
| OK | 7 | 1 | 442 | 37.8 | 62.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OR | 7 | 1 | 897 | 59.0 | 41.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| PA | 20 | 24 | 16937 | 53.1 | 46.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| RI | 4 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| SC | 9 | 6 | 5258 | 47.1 | 52.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| SD | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| TN | 11 | 2* | 1407 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| TX | 38 | 12 | 9964 | 49.0 | 51.0 | 8.6 | 91.4 | ||
| UT | 6 | 2 | 1973 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1 | 516 | 63.6 | 36.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 1 | 679 | 52.7 | 47.3 | 84.5 | 15.5 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1 | 471 | 61.8 | 38.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1 | 494 | 40.5 | 59.5 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| WI | 10 | 19 | 12330 | 53.2 | 46.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WY | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
I’m still giving the side-eye to that Florida +11 Biden poll until someone else gets a similar result. Given the debate performance, the positive test, and the generally insane behavior over the past few days it could be real. Then again could just be one of those weird ones.
Likewise the “Insider Advantage” Paid for by Hannity.com poll with Donald +3 is likely bullshit too. 400 respondents, no release of data except the topline result, no methodology released. Yeah….no.
I’ll@1,
Yeah…Quinnipiac is a pretty reputable pollster. Fortunately, there is enough other polling so that the +11 poll only make up about 7% of the total polled sample. So it doesn’t have a huge effect.
You are spot on about Insider Advantage. Alas, they pass the criterion for being included. Their poll only accounts for 2% of the polled sample, so no big deal.
It is telling that there are 21 Florida polls in the past month. Biden leads in 17 polls, Trump leads in 3 polls and there is one tie. While it isn’t impossible for Florida to flip to red, it seems unlikely.
I know this thread is about Trump vs. Biden, but fwiw, RCP has a KOMO poll from early September that puts Inslee vs. Culp at 53%-37% with 10% MIA.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/governor/ wa/washington_governor_culp_vs_inslee-7207.html
If the MIAs split down the middle, it’ll end up 58%-42%, which is exactly where I’ve thought it would be. A sea lion could run for governor and get 42% by putting an “R” after “sea lion.”
I did an in-depth analysis of the Washington governor’s race here:
http://handbill.us/2020/10/09/.....rnor-poll/