A new King 5/SurveyUSA poll of the 2012 Washington state gubernatorial race has Attorney General Rob McKenna (R-WA) leading Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) by +7 (48% to 41%). A match-up with Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA-08) has Reichert slightly ahead of Inslee, 46% to 44%.
The poll also matched up Gov. Christine Gregoire (D-WA). (Right…Like that’s gonna happen.) She’s down 12% to McKenna and 4% to Reichert.
The poll sampled 610 registered voters and has a margin of error of about 4%.
I decided to grease the gears and wind-up the ol’ calculating machine to tabulate some probabilistic outcomes from these poll data. I’ve posted these Monte Carlo analysis on HA for many years now, but in case you want more details, see that (somewhat outdated) FAQ. Here are results for the Inslee match-ups.
In the Inslee versus McKenna race, a million simulated elections has Inslee winning 95,892 times to McKenna’ s 898,897 wins. That is, if the election had been held yesterday, Inslee would have a 9.6% chance of winning, to McKenna’s 90.4% chance. Here is the distribution of outcomes:
That’s a lot of red.
Less so in the Inslee versus Reichert match-up. Inslee takes 350,198 of the simulated elections to Reichert’s 638,521. That is, Inslee would have about a 35.4% chance of beating Reichert in an election held now, based only on the evidence collected by the poll. Here is the distribution of outcomes:
So…is Washington going all Wisconsin on us? Are we going to get our own replay of the radical right-wing War on Workers, War on Women, War on Railroads, War on Health Care, and relaxation of child labor laws, seen in other states with newly elected Republican governors? It could be, but not really based on these polls. They are taken way, way too early to have any predictive power for an election held in a year and a half.
If there is any message here, it is that its never too early to start working for the candidate that most closely reflects your vision of what Washington should be.
Despite Inslee’s current office, he just isn’t very well known. Name recognition probably drives a lot of choices at this time.
Unfortunately, just as Inslee is somewhat unknown, apparently too is Reichert’s uninspiring career. He’s still riding the Dudley Do right wave.
Finally, Dems are bitter on Gregoire with excellent reason.
Reichert too closely resembles Rudolph Guliani for people I think. Guliani didn’t even make a showing in the last national election in this State. Too much ego, too much Hair of Questionable Origin. Little real education.
Part of the problem for these Goopers here is that Washington State is still a pretty strong Union state, Westinghouse at Hanford, Boeing, the ports, the Coal mine in Lewis County I believe is unionized. With the reputation that the goopers are making for themselves in other states, the rabidly anti-union stance they have taken will work against them.
The Republican party is the party of stupid people and money. And we all know whats been said about that.
McKenna has the edge in any early polling simply because of name recognition – he’s been elected state-wide while Inslee and Reichert have much more localized constituencies.
And remember – Dino Rossi beat both Chris Gregoire and Patty Murray in just about every poll taken…
What difference does it make? Gregoire is basically a Repub…thanks so much Chris for enabling the feds to attack medical marijuana dispensaries here in the state.
It’s too bad she isn’t going to run again. I’d like the opportunity to give her a big fuck you, by not voting for her.
After Obama and now Gregoire, Democrats are going to have earn my vote, I’m tired of casting ballots for liars just because they’re not Republicans..
Big difference with Wisconsin: even if McKenna wins, he’s not going to have a Republican legislature. And he’ll have Frank Chopp, who only thinks he’s governor, to deal with.
” it is that its never too early to start working for the candidate that most closely reflects your vision of what Washington should be.”
Sorry, Darryl- Osama bin Laden is dead. You’ll need to find another candidate. Consider Fidel. He’s just about senile and ought to fit your requirements.
Re 6
Once again the neo-christian blackshirts raise their heads to proudly demonstrate their ignorance.
McKenna would put up a real fight. Better than Rossi I think. For one thing, he’s educated, he knows his way around real political circles and has much experience making speeches and arguments. Unfortunately (for him), he’s an asshole. He comes across as that kid that was left on the sofa at parties while everyone else snuck out to screw the pretty girls in the back rooms.
re 6: The same could be said about you concerning Pinochet and Ferdinand Marcos.
They tell me that you have a Varga cheesecake pin-up of Madame Nhu in your garage.
You are so sick.
NEVER put energy into ‘early’ polls. No one is really thinking about election issues. Back in the 90s in early polls Bill Clinton polled 40% behind Jesse Jackson, Donald Trump is the leader for the GOP nomination in 2012…whatever. Polls are barely meaningful immediately before an election, much less years out…or else we’d have President Ross Perot. Voters are fickle and sometime stupid (voting on emotion not reason) and hard to predict.
Until we actually have a race, I polls are a little silly.
Oops.
Until we actually have a race, I think polls are a little silly.
@6 You just can’t stand it that your boy Bush couldn’t catch him and our man Obama killed him, can you?
@10 I agree; polls aren’t meaningful at this stage. However, I think Gregoire’s clubfooted governance has made things easier for Republicans, in the sense of creating a feeling among some swing voters that it’s time for a party change in Olympia. That would be a huge mistake, given how radical the GOP has become, but when a Democrat does a lousy job it’s only natural for disenchanted voters to think in terms of another party, even though we have only one real party in this state.
@13, I think Gregoire’s clubfooted governance has made things easier for Republicans
Yes, and she’s also turned off the Democratic base, which might be good thing in the long run as whoever runs is going to have to work hard to get their support, but shows up as a problem in the short term.
While we’re on the subject of polls …
“Less than 48 hours after President Barack Obama announced the death of the man who orchestrated the 9/11 attacks, one new poll shows the president’s approval rating has jumped up by nine points, with Americans’ opinions of his handling of terrorism reaching the highest point during Obama’s presidency.
“The overnight poll, conducted by The Washington Post and the Pew Research Center, found that 56 percent of respondents approve of Obama’s performance as president, up nine points from similar polls last month. That boost includes a substantial bump of 10 points among independents.”
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com.....laden-news
Roger Rabbit Commentary: Good news for Americans is bad news for Republicans.
In other news …
“STOCKHOLM — The Arctic is melting faster than expected and could contribute 2-3 feet more in global sea levels by 2100 than earlier thought, experts state in a report being presented to international officials on Wednesday. The report shatters predictions made four years ago by the authoritative U.N. climate change panel.
“‘The observed changes in sea ice on the Arctic Ocean, in the mass of the Greenland ice sheet and Arctic ice caps and glaciers over the past 10 years are dramatic and represent an obvious departure from the long-term patterns,’ the international Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program says in its report. The report compiles the latest science on how climate change has impacted the Arctic in the past six years.
“Melting Arctic glaciers and ice caps are projected to help raise global sea levels by 35 to 63 inches by 2100, the program’s scientists stated.”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42.....vironment/
Roger Rabbit Commentary: If your house is only 5 feet above sea level, you may want to invest in a pair of swim flippers.
I’m 70 feet up on a steep hill, maybe 300 yards back back from the sound. I might be going from water view to high-bank waterfront.
I know everyone’s pro-Obama right now, but give it a couple of weeks and the glow will probably wear off. I still think the question of in not Obama in 2012, then who do we want to run is a valid one.
I don’t know that much about him or Missouri, but the governor of MO, Jay Nixon, keeps popping onto my radar screen in a positive light. Most recently because he vetoed a bill that would have limited the amount of money that CAFO’s could be sued for when they damage other people’s property. Nixon, might be worth taking a look at.
So what do you make of Rob McKenna’s extremely good friend Luke Esser becoming a lobbyist for the SEIU? Does this mean McKenna could pick up some union support for Governor, or at least keep some of the unions neutral in 2012?
How many times does Reichert have to admit that he is a Republican party tool, and McKenna act like one, before people recognize that there are no real conscience-driven independents in the WSRP?
I wonder if either McKenna or Inslee is going to be giving away bunnies to children in order to win votes? This question is included to make sure this comment is relevant to the thread!
Looks like Osama bin Laden was giving away rabbits to children in the neighbor in Pakistan where he was hanging out.
So that begs the question — exactly where was Roger Rabbit born? Will he be releasing his long form birth certificate?
Also, should candidates for Governor of Washington be required to release their long form birth certificate? How many voters think that McKenna, Inslee, Reichert, or Gregoire weren’t really born in the USA?
@19
What I get from it is the same feeling that I’ve had all along, McKenna and Esser are in it for themselves and their small cabal of buddies (McKenna and Esser’s college roomies for the most part) and in it for money, power and status. They don’t really care where it comes from as long as the money keeps coming in and they get to be the big swinging dicks in the room. I guess I should note that there’s one degree of separation between me and that cabal. I dated one of the lesser known’s ex-wife for a while.
A non-democrat party governor would certainly be a welcome change in this state.
one party rule has been a disaster.
@19 I suspect unions aren’t real trusting of Republicans right now.
@23 Really? Who do you have in mind? Not Republicans. They can’t tie their own shoelaces. I doubt that a majority of Washingtonians want to turn our state into a Wisconsin. We’re a one-party state because the other party we used to have in this state leaped off a cliff after Dan Evans.