Only a week to go! Let’s celebrate with an evening of politics, conversation and catharsis over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern beginning about 8pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other 189 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
48.0% probability	52.0% probability
Mean of 49 seats	Mean of 51 seats

My analysis last Tuesday showed control of the Senate going to the Democrats with a 63.5% probability and 50 seats. I’ve added a bunch of new Senate polls since then, and things look tied up.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 15,370 times and there were 32,633 ties (which I presume would go to the Democrats), and Republicans control the Senate 51,997 times. So, in an election held today, Democrats would have a 48% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans would have a 52% probability of controlling the Senate.

Essentially, the Senate is a toss-up. Here are the most important changes since Tuesday.

In the Democrats’ favor, Indiana has gained some clarity from a couple of new polls that favor Democrat Evan Bayh over Republican Todd Young. Bayh’s chances have gone from 56% to 89%.

Three new polls in Missouri move the race in favor of Republican Sen. Roy Blunt over Democrat Jason Kander. Blunt has gone from a a 35% chance last Tuesday to a 78% chance of taking the seat today.

In Nevada, we have a battle between Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto and Republican Joe Heck for Sen. Harry Reid’s (D) old seat. We have seven new polls and a couple of continuing polls since Tuesday, when Heck led in every poll. Today, Heck leads in 5 and Masto leads in 4 polls. Consequently, Heck’s chances have declined from 96% to 54%…pretty much a toss-up.

Today, we have eight new North Carolina polls and four carry-overs from last Tuesday, when the polls pretty evenly split between Democrat Deborah Ross and Republican Sen. Richard Burr. But the new polls have almost entirely gone against the Ross, and her chances have declined from 69% on Tuesday to 10% today.

In Pennsylvania, we have five new polls and five carry-over polls. The new polls have been a bit less favorable to Democrat Katie McGinty. Her chances against Republican Sen. Pat Toomey have declined a bit from 69% to 46%–basically the state is a toss-up.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 48.0%, Republicans control the Senate 52.0%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 49.5 (1.0)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 50.5 (1.0)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 49 (48, 52)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 51 (48, 52)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 35
• Independent seats w/no election: one
• Republican seats w/no election: 30
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: nine
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 21
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: three

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	46
Strong Democrat	1	47
Leans Democrat	1	1	48
Weak Democrat	0	0	0	48
Weak Republican	2	2	2	52
Leans Republican	3	3	50
Strong Republican	4	47
Safe Republican	43

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	%	%	Dem	Rep
State	@	polls	size	Dem	Rep	% wins	% wins
AL		0	0			(0)	(100)
AK		1	320	23.4	76.6	0.0	100.0
AZ		3	1425	42.9	57.1	0.0	100.0
AR		1	398	39.4	60.6	0.2	99.9
CA		2	1137	66.3	33.7	100.0	0.0
CO		4	2463	57.5	42.5	100.0	0.0
CT		1&	872	61.7	38.3	100.0	0.0
FL		13	8100	47.4	52.6	0.0	100.0
GA		4	3001	42.4	57.6	0.0	100.0
HI		0	0			(100)	(0)
ID		2	1309	30.2	69.8	0.0	100.0
IL		2	1780	57.1	42.9	100.0	0.0
IN		3	1361	52.3	47.7	88.5	11.5
IA		1	744	40.5	59.5	0.0	100.0
KS		1	506	36.2	63.8	0.0	100.0
KY		1&	440	43.2	56.8	1.9	98.1
LA		1&	794	34.6	65.4	0.0	100.0
MD		1&	614	66.6	33.4	100.0	0.0
MO		3	1450	48.6	51.4	22.2	77.8
NV		9	6135	49.9	50.1	46.4	53.6
NH		9	5573	49.6	50.4	32.6	67.4
NY		1	568	71.0	29.0	100.0	0.0
NC		14	8208	49.0	51.0	10.0	90.0
ND		0	0			(0)	(100)
OH		9	5050	41.5	58.5	0.0	100.0
OK		0	0			(0)	(100)
OR		2	1619	61.7	38.3	100.0	0.0
PA		11	6155	49.9	50.1	45.8	54.2
SC		1&	941	38.4	61.6	0.0	100.0
SD		0	0			(0)	(100)
UT		2	983	31.8	68.2	0.0	100.0
VT		2	1085	70.9	29.1	100.0	0.0
WA		1	462	63.0	37.0	100.0	0.0
WI		6	3659	53.5	46.5	99.8	0.2

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

Follow @hominidviews on Twitter for Senate and Presidential polling and analysis updates.

Stephen with the WERD: Debt Offensive.

Funny or Die: Hey New Hampshire, let’s vote! with Ben Affleck.

Young Turks: Sheriff Joe Arpaio charged with criminal contempt.

Epic Rap Battle: Hillary v. Drumpf.

Sam Seder” Sen. Mark Kirk blurts out racist comment about opponent Tammy Duckworth during debate

Samantha Bee: UN Tour.

WaPo: Eleven women who broke barriers in Washington D.C..

Mental Floss: 25 life hacks for Halloween.

The 2016 Sexual Offender Clown Show:

• Stephen: TV pitches for Drumpf.
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at Drumpf’s closing argument
• Mark Fiore: A Drumpf named Sue.
• Drumpf Symphony
• Young Turks: Drumpf ex-wife says Donald is a cry baby.
• Maddow: Fred and Donald, “You know I don’t rent to the N******!”
• Olbermann: Would a Drumpf win or a foreign invasion be worse?
• Adam Ruins Everything: Other Donald Drumpfs throughout history:

• Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf — Take ‘Em Off?
• Stephen: The ghost of Abraham Lincoln responds to Drumpf’s Gettysburg Address.
• Trevor Noah: Donald Drumpf, libel bully
• Seth Meyers: Drumpf’s Obamacare fail
• Olbermann: Why Donald Drumpf is obsessed with dictators.
• Stephen: Drumpf’s star is attacked.
• Kimmel: Drumpf’s star is vandalized.
• Funny or Die: Baby Drumpf!
• Thom: Drumpf sending “citizen journalists” to intimidate voters at the polls
• Olbermann: A message to women supporting Drumpf.
• Ana Gasteyer performs “Drumpfy Kind of Christmas”
• Kimmel: Drumpf-TV’s first scripted series.
• PsychoSuperMom: Sue me!
• Stephen: Joe Biden unloads on the potential groper-in-chief.
• James Corden: Donald stinks, and Eric Drumpf steals
• Trevor Noah: Taking Drumpf behind the gym.
• Muslims for Drumpf.
• Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf–Hillary’s invitation
• Seth Meyers: Drumpf and the crack-up of the GOP
• Susie SampsonMake America Great Again:

• Jake and Amir: Donald Drumpf.
• Olbermann: The normalization of violence at Drumpf rallies.
• Stephen: Don’t let your flag near Drumpf.
• Maddow: RNC in legal troubles over Drumpf’s calls for poll watchers.
• Young Turks: Drumpf is a libel bully, loser.
• Kimmel: Obama laughs at Drumpf.

Challenging, frustrating, fantastic: Life as a woman in the White House.

Roll Call: Election forecast with 2 weeks to go.

President Obama on VOTING.

Key of Awesome: (Hamilton Parody) Hillary Rodham Clinton!:

Clinton Makes History:

• Obama on trusting Hillary Clinton.
• Stephen: Is Hillary really a Cubs fan?
• Seth Meyers: Hillary Clinton’s Facebook birthday messages
• Kimmel: Drumpf supporters wish Hillary happy birthday.

Kimmel: 500 weeks of Unnecessary Censorship.

Young Turks: Is FBI’s James Comey trying to manipulate the election?

John Oliver: Opioids.

Samantha Bee: First: Do No Harm. Second: Do No Pussy Stuff.:

How Hollywood views the women of Washington D.C.

Hillary Makes History:

• Seth Meyers: Late Night Presidential Debate
• Lessons in grace with Michelle Obama.
• Samantha Bee: The Good, The Bad, The Nasty (Part 1)
• Samantha Bee: The Good, The Bad, The Nasty (Part 2)
• Samantha Bee: The Good, The Bad, The Nasty (Part 3)
• Olbermann: This election is too important to not vote for Hillary.
• David Pakman: Early voting is in Hillary’s favor.

Funny or Die: Hey America, let’s vote! with Judd Apatow.

Honest political ads: You’re fucked.

Farron Cousins: Ted Cruz proves that Republicans are whiny toddlers.

Trevor Noah: ObamaCare.

Newt “Cheating On My Wives For America” Gingrich:

• Sam Seder: Gingrich’s total meltdown on Megyn Kelly.
• Young Turks: Newt goes nuts during Megyn Kelly interview.
• Farron Cousins: FAUX’s Megyn Kelly hammers pervert Newt Gingrich

Adam Conover joins Stephen to ruin things.

White House: West Wing Week.

2,000 Seattle teachers unite in solidarity with #BlackLivesMatter.

Obama and Kimmel: Waking up.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Clinton	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 333 electoral votes	Mean of 205 electoral votes

About 40 new polls have been released since my previous analysis a week ago. Sec. Hillary Clinton was winning with near certainty and up 338 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 200 electoral votes.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,925 times and Trump wins 75 times. Clinton received (on average) 333 to Trump’s 205 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.01% probability of winning.

A few states have shown some interesting changes since last week.

• Arizona: Trump’s long non-winning streak is broken with a new Trump+1% poll that reduces Clinton’s chances of winning the state from 79% to 74%.

  

• Florida: Most recent polls have had Clinton up by a small margin, but this week we get a large Remington poll that has the state tied and a Bloomberg poll that has Trump up +2%. As a result, Clinton drops from a 93% chance of winning the state last week to an 85% chance of winning the state this week.

  

• Iowa: Trump has led in most polls, but one recent poll has Clinton up by +0.6%. Trump’s chances have dropped from 79% to 71%.

  

• Louisiana: Two new polls have Trump up by double digits, moving him from 94% to 100% chance of winning the state.
• North Carolina: Clinton has led in all recent polls, until a large Remington poll put Trump up by +3%. Clinton’s chances driop from 88% to 80%.

  

• Ohio: The most recent polls have Trump up by small margins. This has shifted Ohio from a 65% probabilitiy of a Trump win to a 89% probability.

  

• South Dakota: Last week we only had an old poll that had Trump up by double digits, giving Trump a certain win. A new Maxon-Dixon poll has Trump up by +7%, but the small size of the poll means that Trump’s chances are pegged at 89% new.
• Texas: We have only 2 current polls and Trump has tiny margins (+3% and +4%). Trump’s chances have dropped from 96% to 86% as a result.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 27 Oct 2015 to 27 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

We’re in the final weeks of the 2016 General Elections and the ballots have dropped win Washington state. Isn’t this a good time for a drink? The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight. Please join us for an evening of politics over a pint.

We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern beginning about 8pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other 188 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

I’ve largely neglected local and statewide races this election season. No particular reason, although I haven’t felt that the Republican candidates in the Senate and Gubernatorial races have run particularly strong campaigns.

I guess it isn’t too late though. And today’s Elway poll piqued my interest in the Gubernatorial race. The race matches up Gov. Jay Inslee (D) against challenger Bill Bryant (R).

The poll, conducted from 20 Oct. to 22 Oct on 502 likely voters has a margin of error of 4.5%. Of the 502 respondents, 452 are either for Inslee or Bryant. Inslee received 256 “votes” (51.0%) and Bryant received 196 “votes” (39.0%), with Other or Undecided at 50 “votes” (10.0%). When we normalize the results to just Inslee and Bryant “votes,” Inslee gets 56.6% and Bryant gets 43.4%

I did a Monte Carlo simulation of 1,000,000 simulated elections. The final tally gave Inslee 975,893 wins and Bryant 22,276 wins. In other words, if an election was held now, we would expect Inslee to win with a 97.8% probability, and Bryant with a 2.2% probability.

The probability distribution of electoral vote outcomes pretty much tells the story:

The previous poll, by Strategies 360 taken from 29 Sep to 3 Oct, gave similar results. The poll surveyed 500 individuals (4.4% MOE) and found Inslee at 50% to Bryant’s 40%, with 10% undecided.

With two weeks to go and ballots already being returned, it seems like Inslee is quite likely to serve a second term.

Stephen helps Obama polish his résumé.

John Oliver: Third Parties.

Captain Khan:

Alternatino: An interview with Mussolini.

Colbert: Julian Assange cannot leak any more emails.

Minute Physics: How entropy powers the earth.

The 2016 Alt-Right Sexual Predator Show:

• Trevor: Donald Drumpf’s rigged election talk
• The apprentice speaks.
• Fareed Zakaria interviews Bill Maher On Drumpf and his Teabagger deplorables.
• Minorities for Drumpf: I Hope He Loses.
• Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf on sitting alone
• Olbermann: You’re lying to yourself if you think Drumpf is the answer.
• Randy Rainbow interviews Melinia Drumpf.:

• PsychoSuperMom: How the boys talk.
• Donald Trump: Blue Falcon
• Stephen: Dead voters have chosen their candidate.
• Keith Olbermann: These insane excuses from Drumpf’s surrogates are deplorable
• Trevor: Between the scenes–The evolution of Pussygate
• Young Turks: Roger Ailes bails on Drumpf campaign.
• Kimmel: “Not the Donald Drumpf that I know.”
• Bill Maher: Fallout from pussygate
• Stephen: Melania Drumpf blames everyone but Donald for his locker room talk
• Obama to Drumpf: Stop your fucking whining!
• Drumpf’s new Washington Monument.
• Olbermann: The secret trick to decoding everything Donald Drumpf says
• Stephen: Jorge Ramos wants you to know what makes Drumpf so dangerous
• Red State Update: These Rednecks Hate Drumpf
• Young Turks: The launch of DrumpfTV
• Thom: The danger of Drumpf’s “election rigging” talk
• Donald Drumpf’s first 100 days.
• Newzoids: Donald Drumpf wrestling
• Stephen: Drumpf admits he’ll probably whine more if he loses

Mental Floss: 26 facts about the science of family.

A Woman’s Guide to the White House.

Kimmel’s week in unnecessary censorship.

Colbert: Pretty much everybody was on Hillary Clinton’s list of potential VPs.

Bill Maher: A bone to pick with undecided voters.

This is Your Debate on Drugs:

• Bad Lip Reading: Presidential Slam Poetry:

• James Corden: Debate drug testing.
• Did Hillary debate on steroids?
• Colbert: Nate Silver explains just how bad Drumpfs night was.
• Daily Show: Donald Drumpf hints at a not-so-peaceful transfer of power
• Hillary drops the mic
• Olbermann: Donald Drumpf must withdraw. Here’s why.
• Weird Al autotunes the dabate: Bad Hombres, Nasty Women:

• James Cordon: The last debate….
• Kimmel: Drumpf’s interruptions.
• Red State Update reviews the 3rd Presidential Debate.
• David Pakman: Trump beats Clinton in 3rd debate—37 to 4 lies
• Hillary Clinton on the Supreme Court.
• Jonathan Mann: Nasty Woman vs. Bad Hombre
• Stephen reacts to the 3rd Presidential debate.
• The Daily Show: The final debate:

• Kimmel kids out-of-focus group.

White House: West Wing Week.

On October surprises.

Stephen considers fleeing America.

Undecided voters.

Ohio for President.

Kimmel: A message from Canada to America.

Trevor: Clinton’s leaked emails.

Robert Reich: How Democrats take back the Senate.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Clinton	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 338 electoral votes	Mean of 200 electoral votes

The analysis on Monday showed Sec. Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump with a greater than 99.9% probability of winning an election held now, and with a mean electoral vote of 338 for Clinton to 200 for Trump.

We’ve gotten about 49 new polls since then. A Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections has Clinton winning all 100,000 times. In an election held now, Clinton would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.01% probability of winning. Clinton received (on average) 338 to Trump’s 200 electoral votes.

In other words, even with plenty of new polls, the race has stabalized.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 20 Oct 2015 to 20 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Okay…here we go. Debate three has the potential to be insane. Please discuss.

[5:45] We have CNN on at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern. The banner says “BREAKING: Debate to start momentarily”. “Breaking”??? I don’t think so.

6:05: Play ball!

6:08: “My opponent said bad things about me and millions of people.” What the fuck is Trump babbling about. The question is about the Supreme Court!

6:10: Oooohhhh…he is talking about a Justice (bad audio here). Still…totally off-track to bring this up. Make him look petty as fuck.

We’re at the point in the campaign where Alec Baldwin looks more like Trump than Trump

— Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) October 20, 2016

Right now Justice Scalia is in Heaven telling the Virgin Mary what she can & can't do with her own body. #Debatenight #SXM121

— John Fugelsang (@JohnFugelsang) October 20, 2016

“dozens of toddlers injure themselves, even kill people with guns.” – HRC, standing next to angry giant toddler.

— Karoli (@Karoli) October 20, 2016

6:19: Except for Trumps little tangent about Ginsburg, this is a pretty ordinary debate. Oops…Trump’s turn.

If Trump knew doctors other than Dr. Bongwater, he'd know "ripping a baby from the womb" in the 9th month is called CHILDBIRTH. #debatenight

— shauna (@goldengateblond) October 20, 2016

6:22: We have The Sniff.

6:24: Please, Hillary, no anecdotes.

6:25: Hillary is starting to troll Trump. Waiting for a Trump Sniff…er…meltdown.

6:27: Trump Tower built with undocumented workers–Clinton trolls again. Trump keeps it under control.

6:30: Wallace gets pissed at Clinton and he abandons his impartial role and points out her with bank speaker fees. Pathetic!

6:32: Donald is starting to go CRAZY with the SNIFFS! He’s rattled! Point Clinton!

6:33: Trump goes NUTZ!!!

6:35: Trump claims Clinton has been outsmarted worse than anyone ever. Of course…she beating him….

6:36: Clinton trolls over nuclear codes…Sniffles to follow.

6:37: Chris Wallace should ask candidates about their views instead of stating their views…

"I never made out with Putin." "Nobody ever said you did, Mr. Trump." "Because I didn't. And I don't even want to!"

— Seth Mnookin (@sethmnookin) October 20, 2016

6:40: Why does Trump deny knowing his “stablemate”, Putin?

Hillary mentioned that Trump used illegal workers to build Trump Tower. It's true, as @NickKristof wrote https://t.co/9kAb4cCpAI #debate

— NYT Opinion (@nytopinion) October 20, 2016

6:42: True fact: In 2008, Clinton stated in a debate against Obama, that she would renegotiate NAFTA.

HRC: Let me translate that if I can; DJT: You can't. I agree w/ DJT – that was incomprehensible. But if anyone can, it's HRC #Debate

— Michael Maddux (@michaeljmaddux) October 20, 2016

"Mr. Trump, how's your day?"
TRUMP: I don't know Putin! I've never met Putin! HE'S NOT MY BEST FRIEND!
"…"
"[sobbing] YOU'RE the puppet!"

— Adam Conover (@adamconover) October 20, 2016

6:47: Trump, “I pass factories”. Yep…Big Asshole!

6:49: Clinton trolls Trump again with shipping jobs to Mexico. He sniffs.

Uh, no, those sexual assault allegations have not been debunked. Saying "wrong!" is not debunking. #debate

— Boo-is Frightsman (@LouisPeitzman) October 20, 2016

6:57: “Nobody has more respect for women than I do.” The pub breaks out laughing.

6:58 Trump claims Clinton lied “hundreds of times to the FBI”. *SNIFF* I think that means he is lying.

HILLARY DESTROYING MAN-BABY TRUMP. Trump taking the bait every time. #debate #debatenight

— The Daily Edge (@TheDailyEdge) October 20, 2016

7:05: Clinton brings out the big guns, “…hasn’t released his tax returns.”

7:06: “Built with Chinese steel.” Ouch!

7:07: Concession question: Trump, “I’ll look it at the time” Totally disqualifying.

7:09: Trump: Clinton is guilty of a crime. Umm…no she isn’t. We have a constitutionally defined process for making this determination.

7:10: Trump (on no Emmy): “I should-a gotten it!” #whiner #wanker #notserious

Clinton hitting hard on list of things Trump has said are rigged: FBI, Iowa caucuses, Emmys. Trump: "Shoulda gotten it."

— Emily Flitter (@FlitterOnFraud) October 20, 2016

This IS a reality show. Will Trump concede the election? "I will keep you in suspense."

— James Oliphant (@jamesoliphant) October 20, 2016

"Well, that is horrifying," says Hillary, when Trump refuses to agree to a peaceful transition of power if he loses. #Debates2016

— Ashley Parker (@AshleyRParker) October 20, 2016

7:14: Fortunately, concession is a mere courtesy. It is totally unnecessary, although it sends a terrible message to the people.

7:17: Clinton points out Trump supported Iraq. He barks “wrong” twice in the exact same place he did last debate!!!

7:18: Clinton trolls Trump until he just blows up! Starts babbling.

7:19: Okay…now Trump is debating Chris Wallace. Cool.

"Let's turn to Aleppo."

Somewhere in New Mexico, Gary Johnson scowls and crushes an empty kombucha bottle. #debate

— daveweigel (@daveweigel) October 20, 2016

7:20: 🎼 ♫ If you’ve ever seen Aleppo clap your hands. ♪

Quite the difference in how Wallace addresses them. To HRC: some tough policy qs. To DJT: a summer-school teacher with a kid high on glue.

— Ana Marie Cox (@anamariecox) October 20, 2016

7:26: I wonder if Trump thinks GDP stands for “Good Damn P***Y”

7:27: “…and the unicorns will, once again, roam the great plains.”

Trump needed a big win tonight in this debate, instead, he looked like a little boy. Congratulations Madam President! #DebateNight #Debate

— Left Out Loud (@LeftOutLoud) October 20, 2016

7:31 :Trump has no clue about the issues facing Social Security.

7:32: Trump says he is happy that health insurance premiums are going up. #gofuckyourself

Things Donald Trump has called rigged. Also, in related news, I know you are but what am I. #growupDonald #debatenight pic.twitter.com/NhYd0AgmIh

— Bros4Hillary (@Bros4Hillary) October 20, 2016

7:37: Trump: “All she has done is talk to THE African Americans” #ThatsHowRacistsTalk

Conclusion: all anyone is going to talk about is Donald’s refusal to commit to concession. But the fact is, this is the least important thing about this debate. Concession is a tradition, but has no legal or constitutional meaning. It is just a convention and courtesy. The only person who will suffer from a lack of concession will be Mr. Trump.

I hope the media and social media gets past this and talks about important things.

"No one respects women more than I do" Later says 'Such a nasty woman' #DebateNight pic.twitter.com/c9bU3G7o6o

— FashionweekNYC (@FashionweekNYC) October 20, 2016

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight. Please join us for an evening of conversation and political debate over drinks. We start at 8:00pm.

And then come back on Wednesday night for another episode of Crazy Guy pretends to be a Presidential Candidate. That’s right, we’ll be getting together to watch the third Presidential Debate. It starts at 6:00pm.

We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern.

For Wednesday’s debate, please note that the audio of the debate may not be perfect. We expect that almost every TV in the joint will be on the debate, but there will be cheers and jeers and all the other sounds of a working pub. If you really must hear every word, consider bringing a radio and headphones.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other Living Liberally meetings happening over the next week. There are 185 chapters, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Clinton	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 338 electoral votes	Mean of 200 electoral votes

The previous analysis from 4 days ago showed Sec. Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump, with a >99.9% probability of winning an election last week. Clinton’s mean electoral vote total was 335 and Trump’s was 203.

With a pile of new polls released since then, things haven’t changed a whole lot. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins all 100,000 times. Clinton received (on average) 338 (+3) to Trump’s 200 (-3) electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would still have a > 99.9% probability of beating Trump.

There are a few things to highlight for this analysis.

Two new polls have come in from Arizona, and Clinton leads each. The oldest poll is a tie, and the newest three have Clinton at +2%, +1%, and +2%. This slight lead has slightly raised Clinton’s probability of taking the state from 60.8% to 65.8%. This is barely better than a tie, but the fact that a Democrat is leading in Arizona is nothing short of remarkable.

In Colorado, two polls with Trump up age out, and one new poll is added. The four current polls have Clinton up +11%, +11%, +0% (tie), and +8%. Consequently, Clinton’s chances have gone from 81.8% to 98.9% of winning the state today.

We have nine current polls in Florida, and eight of the polls have Clinton up. The one new poll has her up +4%. Overall, Clinton’s chances go from 91.8% to 94.2% in Florida.

We see a slight shift in Georgia, where Trump’s chances have dropped from 98.7% to 93.2%. This is entirely an artifact of 6 old polls dropping out and a new one coming in. The new poll has Trump up by +5.5%.

Minnesota has shifted in Trump’s favor, on account of a new Gravis poll that has the state tied. The other two current polls have Clintion up by +6.9% and 6%. The Gravis poll looks like an outlier.

Two new Nevada polls join five other polls. Clinton has small leads in five of the seven polls, and the other two are ties. Clinton’s chances rise from 76.6% to 82.9% in the state.

In North Carolina, one poll ages out and three new polls weigh in. Clinton leads in all nine current polls, typically with small leads. Her chances have gone up from a 86% to a 92.3% probability.

A new South Carolina poll has Trump leading by +15.4%, raising his chances to 100% from 76%.

Utah has had some interesting polling, including a tie last week. Today, a Rasmussen poll with Trump up +2% joined a third poll with Trump at +6% to raise his chances of winning from 76.9% to 81.4%.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 17 Oct 2015 to 17 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Seth Meyers: Joe and Jill Biden.

White House Watch: The sniff test.

Minute Physics: Where does complexity come from?

The GOP Sexual Predator Show:

• Why we need A Business Man
• Kimmel: Coked-up Drumpf on WikiLeaks
• Slate: Trump’s solution to Islamophobia isn’t one
• WA Republicans react.
• Vote Drumpf on November 28th.
• Donald reacts to being dis-invited from Wisconsin rally.
• Michelle Obama Trump tape has “shaken me to my core”:

• Seth Meyers: VP Biden on the Drumpf tape.
• Jimmy Dore: Why now?
• Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf–Little boy.
• Olbermann: How would Drumpf deport 11 million people? Think about it.
• Daily Show Fingers the pulse of the Drumpf supporters.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf’s IRONCLAD ASSAULT DEFENSE, “Look at her…I Don’t think so.”
• Young Turks: Story of how Donald Drumpf stiffed 9/11 survivors!
• Songify: Clinton—Drumpf face-off
• Samantha Bee: Pussy Riot!
• Samantha Bee: GOP fear the P
• PsychoSuperMom: Hypocrisy Thy Name Is GOP
• Tic Tac responds to Drumpf.
• Republicans in Congress speak sut against Drumpf
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at the allegations against Drumpf.
• Mark Fiore: President of the locker room.
• Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf on Clinton’s brother.
• Thom: White men don’t want Drumpf to go after White women
• Daily Show: Drumpf Gyms
• Olbermann: Jailing Hillary!? Drumpf’s outrageous case for dictatorship.
• Young Turks: Ben Carson, “Drumpf sexual assaults don’t matter”
• Red State Update: Paul Ryan won’t defend Drumpf
• Kimmel: Coked-up Drumpf on Hillary on stage.
• Samantha Bee: I thought we were done with this!
• Jimmy Dore: Drumpf intruding on naked teen contestants
• Huh…Apparently Drumpf does do business in Russia.
• Randy Rainbow: “Grab ’em By the P***Y”
• Newzoids: Drumpf is Meatloaf “Pratt out of Hell”:

• Keith Olbermann: Looks like Donald Drumpf is peddling Russian propaganda.
• Trevor: Fallout from Drumpf’s PussyGate
• Bill Maher explains why Drumpf is popular
• Fusion Comedy staff watch the Drumpf–Billy Bush conversation.
• Young Turks: Jr. says women who don’t like sexual harassment don’t belong in work force.
• Slate: No end in sight for sexual assault accusations against Drumpf.
• Seth Meyers: A Closer Look at the Drumpf free-fall.
• Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf on women
• Olbermann: We’re witnessing Donald Drumpf’s meltdown here, folks.
• Thom: Do we really need a groper-in-chief?
• Sam Seder: The Michelle speech.
• Young Turks: Drumpf flirts with a pre-teen.

Slate: FAUX News didn’t air Michelle Obama’s speech.

John Oliver on Guantánamo.

The Oval Office guide to sexual harassment.

Chris Hayes: Idiot Limbaugh thinks the “Left” is obsessed with consent.

Four Weeks To Go: Top Senate challengers and vulnerable House incumbents

Clinton versus The G(r)OP(er):

• Clinton and Drumpf do a debate duet.7
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at the debate and the Bush Bus
• 2nd 2016 Presidential debate recap: No beating around the Billy Bush
• Jonathan Mann: He’s humping the chair again

• Seth Meyers: Second Late Night Presidential Debate
• Red State Update: Did Drumpf win? Arrest Hillary?
• Kimmel: How Hillary greeted Donald at the debate.
• Slate: The debate whining of Donald Drumpf
• Trevor: Ken Bone is America’s newest sweetheart.
• Olbermann: Drumpf’s 30 most mind-boggling debate moments (so far)
• Stephen responds to the second debate.
• Kimmel interviews Ken Bone
• Jonathan Mann: The Kenneth Bone Song.

White House: West Wing Week.

Young Turks: Giuliani claims Clinton wasn’t there after 9/11, except there is a photo of them.

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Mental Floss: 29 spin-offs that almost happened.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Clinton	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 335 electoral votes	Mean of 203 electoral votes

About 17 new polls have come out since the previous analysis a few days ago. Many of the polls were taken after last Friday’s release of Donald Trump having a candid discussion with Billy Bush. That isn’t to say Sec. Hillary Clinton is totally off the hook, as WikiLeaks has released a series of stolen staffer emails over the past week to some embarassment. They don’t seem to be getting much press attention, but perhaps they are starting to have an effect on the race.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,979 times and Trump wins 21 times, and they are all Electoral College ties. Clinton received (on average) 335 to Trump’s 203 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have greater than a 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have less than a 0.01% probability of winning. The results are an improvement for Clinton who previously had a 99.8% probability of winning and a mean electoral vote total of 328.

Here are the most notable changes.

In Alaska a new poll has Trump up +5.5% in addition to a poll that has him up +3%. Trump’s chances have risen to 90.2% from 71%.

An old Arizona poll drops out, leaving behind two polls, one tie and one with Clinton up +2%. The state has gone from a dead tie to Clinton with a 60.8% chance–still pretty close to a tie.

With the gain and loss of one poll, Florida moves a bit more into the Clinton column. She would win the state with a 91.8% probability today. A few days ago, her chances were 88.6%.

Trump gains in Georgia, as polls age out. He was at 90.1% on Monday, now he is at a 98.7% chance.

In Iowa, one of two polls aged out giving Trump a small increase to 78.1% probability of taking the state now.

In Maine, three old polls age out and one newly released poll weighs in. The biggest change is that Trump’s chances in the 2nd Congressional District have dropped from 98.7% to 59.6%. Trump is +1.6% in ME-2 now.

Nevada is very close. Of the five current polls, two are ties, and three give CLinton small leads (C+3%, C+1%, C+6%). Clinton jumps from a 68.5% (Monday) to a 76.6% probability of winning now.

One new Clinton+9% poll in New Hampshire pushes her chances in the state from 95.2% to 98.4%.

In North Carolina, a new poll enters and an old one leaves, changing Clinton’s chances from 75.3% on Monday to 86% today.

Clinton’s chances also have increased in Ohio, but only because an old Trump+6% poll has aged out. Trump drops from 85.9% to 68.3%.

Utah is the big surprise of the last few days. Both old polls with Trump at +15%, age out, and two new polls are released today. One is a tie at 26% each, the other has Trump at +6%. The result, Trump drops from 100% to a 76.9% chance of winning Utah today.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 13 Oct 2015 to 13 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
63.5% probability	36.5% probability
Mean of 50 seats	Mean of 50 seats

My previous analysis, some 2.5 weeks ago, showed control of the Senate in the hands of the Republicans with a 70.5% probability and a mean of 51 seats. We have had a plethora of new polls since then, and we have seen a big change at the top of the ballot.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 28,826 times, there were 34,688 ties, and Republicans control the Senate 36,486 times. If we presume the VP will be a Democrat (and this seems very likely), Democrats have a 63.5% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans, a 36.5% probability of controlling the Senate.

Where have the changes come?

First, is Illinois, where we didn’t have much polling before. A new poll has Tammy Duckworth (D) leading Mark Kirk (R) by an astonishing 14.4% in a four-way race. Illinois moves from 81.1% chance to a 99.8% chance of electing the Democrat.

In Indiana, where Democrat Evan Bayh is up against Republican Todd Young, we have but a single current poll that has Bayh up +1%. The previous poll had Bayh up +4%, so the Democrat’s chances have dropped from 77.2% to 56.2%–just about a tie.

We have no new polling in Missouri, where Democrat Jason Kander is challenging the incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt (R). But two older polls have dropped out and we are left with one Emerson poll with Kander at +2%. Blunt’s chances have dropped from 97.4% to 35%.

New Hampshire has been a back-and-forth race between Democrat Maggie Hassan and Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R). Ayotte led in the last analysis with a 56.5% probability of winning. Five polls have aged out and four new one have been completed. Now she is up to 68.6% probability.

In North Carolina, Democrat Deborah Ross is challenging Sen. Richard Burr (R). This race has seen a significant shift in the polling and Burr’s 91% probability of winning has changed to a 61.1% probability for Ross.

In Oregon, Sen. Kate Brown (D) is defending her seat against Republican Bud Pierce. The only polling in the last analysis was small and had her up +8%. A new poll has Brown up +15%. Consequently her chances have gone up to 100%.
Oops…I got the gubernatorial candidate names in the Senate file. So it is Mark Callahan (R) versus Sen. Ron Wyden (D). The poll numbers are correct, however, so the only polling in the last analysis was small and had him up +8%. A new poll has Wyden up +15%. Consequently his chances have gone up to 100%.

Pennsylvania is another state where an incumbent is endangered, with Democrat Katie McGinty leading Sen. Pat Toomey (R). Previously she had a 78.3% probability of taking the seat. The loss of five polls and the gain of seven new polls have shifted this a little, and now KcGinty has a 68.7% chance

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 63.5%, Republicans control the Senate 36.5%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 49.9 ( 1.1)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 50.1 ( 1.1)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 50 (48, 52)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 50 (48, 52)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 35
• Independent seats w/no election: one
• Republican seats w/no election: 30
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: nine
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 18
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: six

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	42
Strong Democrat	5	47
Leans Democrat	3	3	50
Weak Democrat	1	1	1	51
Weak Republican	0	0	0	49
Leans Republican	1	1	49
Strong Republican	5	48
Safe Republican	43

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	%	%	Dem	Rep
State	@	polls	size	Dem	Rep	% wins	% wins
AL		0	0			(0)	(100)
AK		1	320	23.4	76.6	0.0	100.0
AZ		1	528	40.9	59.1	0.1	99.9
AR		2	1142	36.9	63.1	0.0	100.0
CA		2	1106	57.0	43.0	99.9	0.1
CO		7	4258	54.4	45.6	100.0	0.0
CT		1&	872	61.7	38.3	100.0	0.0
FL		10	5787	47.0	53.0	0.1	99.9
GA		5	2258	40.1	59.9	0.0	100.0
HI		0	0			(100)	(0)
ID		0	0			(0)	(100)
IL		3	1736	54.8	45.2	99.8	0.2
IN		1	498	50.6	49.4	56.2	43.8
IA		3	1428	42.1	57.9	0.0	100.0
KS		1&	495	40.4	59.6	0.2	99.8
KY		1&	440	43.2	56.8	2.4	97.6
LA		1&	794	34.6	65.4	0.0	100.0
MD		2	1015	67.7	32.3	100.0	0.0
MO		1	492	51.2	48.8	65.0	35.0
NV		7	3943	48.0	52.0	4.1	95.9
NH		5	2315	49.3	50.7	31.4	68.6
NY		1&	671	72.1	27.9	100.0	0.0
NC		12	6452	50.2	49.8	61.1	38.9
ND		0	0			(0)	(100)
OH		5	2519	42.9	57.1	0.0	100.0
OK		0	0			(0)	(100)
OR		1	1061	61.2	38.8	100.0	0.0
PA		11	5490	50.5	49.5	68.7	31.3
SC		1&	941	38.4	61.6	0.0	100.0
SD		0	0			(0)	(100)
UT		1&	502	27.7	72.3	0.0	100.0
VT		1&	544	62.3	37.7	100.0	0.0
WA		2	1071	54.4	45.6	97.9	2.1
WI		4	2680	54.0	46.0	99.9	0.1

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

Clinton	Trump
99.8% probability of winning	0.2% probability of winning
Mean of 328 electoral votes	Mean of 210 electoral votes

There have been 32 new polls released since the previous analysis on 3 Oct. The polls are largely post-first debate, pre-second debate and have almost all been collected before last Friday’s release of the conversation between Billy Bush and Donald Trump.

For this analysis, I have reduced the window that defines “current polls” to ten days. As the pace of polling picks up, the window will shrink some more.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Sec. Hillary Clinton wins 99,821 times and Trump wins 179 times (including the 23 ties). Clinton received (on average) 328 to Trump’s 210 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 99.8% probability of winning and Trump would have a 0.2% probability of winning.

This is a considerable shift from the 92.5% probability Clinton had in the last analysis. Also her mean electoral vote total has climbed from 300 to 328. That’s quite a jump for one week!

There are a few state changes worth noting.

In Alaska, a new poll has Trump up by only +3%. Previous older polls had Trump with stronger showings (+21% and +14.8%), so this is quite a change. Consequently, Trump’s chances have tumbled from 100% to 71%. I don’t believe Clinton is a serious contender in Alaska, but we only have one small poll for the state, so that is what the available evidence tells us.

Two new Arizona polls don’t favor Trump. We now have three current polls for the state, one has Trump up +2, one is tied, and the most recent has Clinton up +2%. The state is 50-50 (percent) right now. Did I mention that this is Arizona?

A handful of polls favoring Trump have aged out and some new polls have been released. We now have eight polls, six that favor Clinton (+4%, +0.2%, +5%, +4%, +2%, and +3%), and two that favor Trump (+1.4% and +1%). Clinton’s chances have gone from 62.9% to 88.6%. Clearly, the state is quite close, but Clinton seems to be gaining, if slowly.

The previous analysis had Trump running strong in Iowa with a 93.5% chance of winning. The two current polls have Trump up +4% and Clinton up +0.6%, so Trump’s chances drop to 71.6%.

Nevada is another very close state. Last week, Clinton had a 52.4% probability of winning. The five current polls have one tie, three small leads for Clinton, and one for Trump. Clinton’s chances are pegged at 68.5% now.

One bit of positive news for Trump is in New Hampshire where poll turn-over has favored him slightly. He went from a 0.9% chance to 4.8% chance of taking the state.

New Mexico was modestly strong with Clinton at 77.3% chance last week with one poll with her up +4%. That poll is joined by a new one having her up a remarkable +13.5%. Her chances are now 99.3%.

Of the nine current polls in North Carolina, Clinton has small leads in the last eight. This raises her chances from last week from 56.7% to 75.3%.

Ohio has been Trump territory recently. But the most recent poll has Clinton up +2%. Combined with the three other polls (Trump +5%, +1%, and +6%), Trump’s chances have dropped from 94.8% to 85.9%.

In South Carolina, Trump drops from 100% to 77.6% because an old poll at Trump+15.4%, aged out. The remaining poll is Trump+4%. We simply need more polls in the state.

Something similar happens in Texas, where two old poll drops out and one new one is released. Trump goes from 97.2% down to 93.1% chance of winning.

A new Washington state poll has Clinton at +17%, joining another poll with Clinton at +5.7. Clinton goes from 87.5% chance to 99.9%.

In Wisconsin, an old poll drops out (Clinton+3%), one remains (Clinton+6.3), and two new polls join them (Clinton +8% and +9.6%). Clinton’s chances rise from 92% to 99.8% in Wisconsin.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 10 Oct 2015 to 10 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]