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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Trevor: Militias—If you don’t know, now you know

Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s best Christian: Nonsense junkies

Vox: How the US poisoned Navajo Nation.

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Biden—Harris 2020:

SNL Weekend Update: Pete Davidson on J.K. Rowling’s transphobic comments.

Larry Wilmore with Nikole Hannah-Jones: Reparations are necessary to bridge the racial wealth gap.

Now This: People commemorate George Floyd’s birthday

The Dotard Трамп and Other Drug-addled Imbeciles:

Vox: How the next president could change policing.

The Daily Show: The what/why/how of the Columbus Day debate

Now This: A Veteran discusses the Russian bounty scandal.

TyphoidТрамп and Other Superspreaders:

The Daily Show: Obama’s Unmasking Scandal—2017-2020.

Americans for Decency Medicare for all explained with Kara Eastman

SCOTUS Tragedy:

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Robert Reich: How to beat Republicans at their own game

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Election 2020: Stable race with a solid lead for Biden

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 363 electoral votes
Mean of 175 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Some 31 new polls have come out since last Thursday’s analysis of the race between Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. The new polls don’t really change much of anything. Biden leads. It isn’t even close.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins all 100,000. Biden received (on average) 363 to Trump’s 175 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning. Trump would have no chance of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 12 Oct 2019 to 12 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Since July, Biden’s lead has been solidly above the 270 electoral vote victory threshold, generally bouncing a bit between 350 and 400.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Amber Ruffin explains 2020 to a time traveler from 1793

Trevor: Columbus Day

Really American: Two-faced Lindsey.

Biden—Harris 2020:

Stephen: Mayor Pete Buttigieg has a message for Justices Alito and Thomas as they attack marriage equality.

Bruce W. Nelson: Moscow Mitch revisited

The Dotard Трамп and His Band of Grifters, Scofflaws and Tax Cheats:

Vox: How US schools punish Black kids

Amber Ruffin: The week in review

Trevor: Facebook bans QAnon & Instagram hides negative comments

Typhoid Трамп and Other Super Spreaders like Melanie:

Larry Wilmore with Bomani Jones: Why are police exempt from the consequences of killing people?

Trevor: Alex Wagner on why Americans feel anxiety and heartbreak.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Election 2020: Biden still leads

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 366 electoral votes
Mean of 172 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

For my previous analysis (on Monday) Vice President Joe Biden had a solid lead over President Donald Trump with an average of 363 to 175 electoral votes. Since then, there have been 52 new polls released. Most are state polls, but we do have a new polls for each of Maine’s congressional districts and Nebraska’s second congressional district.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 366 to Trump’s 172 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning. Biden’s small bump is pretty meaningless—such shifts are normal variation as old polls “age out” after they are more than a month old and new polls drop into the analyses.

Trump has made gains in three states, including a new poll in Arkansas bumping him from a 57% probability of taking the state to a 75% probability of taking the state. Trump cuts into Biden’s lead in Maine’s 2nd congressional district, where Biden drops from 90% to a 82% probability of taking the state. Finally two new polls in Montana, including a remarkable Trump+13.4 Emerson poll, brings Trump up to a 98% probability of taking that state.

Biden made gains in five states. Two new polls gives us a total of eight current polls for Iowa, and Trump’s 63% chance has flipped into a 65% chance Biden would take the state today.

Biden also gains ground in Nebraska’s second congressional district with a new Biden+11 poll joining two other recent polls with Biden leading to boost his chances from 87% to 98%. This district went Republican in 2016 and 2012, but narrowly went for Obama in 2008. Two new Nevada polls give us a total of six in the Silver state, and Biden leads in every one of them. His chances have increased from 98% to 100% probability of winning an election held today.

North Carolina is close, but most of the polls are in Biden’s favor. There are twenty current polls and Biden leads in 16, Trump in 2, with two ties. Here is what the last month of polling looks like in North Carolina:

Ohio is even closer than North Carolina. A new Biden+1 poll gives us eight in all, with Trump leading in three, Biden leading in four, and one tie. The margins are small, and each candidate has a 50% chance of winning an election there today:

Here is the long term picture made from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 08-Oct-2019 to 08-Oct-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

For an election held today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] generated by the simulated elections:
[Read more…]

Election 2020: Senate Races

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Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability
less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 54 seats
Mean of 46 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

My previous analysis, just over a week ago, showed control of the Senate going to Democrats with, on average, 53 seats going to the Democrats and 47 seats going to the Republicans. After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats won 97,022 of them, Republicans only won 42 times and there were 2,936 ties. Since then, about 38 new polls have been released.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99,919 times, Republicans control the Senate 21 times, and there were 60 ties. In other words, the results for Democrats have improved a bit, with the average number of seats going up by one to 54. Democrats would almost certainly take control of the Senate if the race was held today.

This week, we got the first polls in several races, including Tennessee, Oregon, Massachusetts, and the Georgia-2 special election. In fact, that poll is largely responsible for the one-seat bump from last week. Georgia’s special election has no primary. Instead numerous candidates will be on the ballot on November 3rd, and a runoff election will be held in the almost certain event that no one candidate takes 50% of the vote. The Civiqs poll conducted heat-to-head contests between different combinations of candidates. At this point it looks like the runoff is between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler, who holds the seat by appointment. The poll puts Warnock up over Loeffler 49% to 39%. Of course, this is only one poll, and an unconventional one at that, but it has totally changed my perception of this race, which I assumed would go to the incumbent Republican.

Democrats make progress in several other races, as well, including the GA-1 Senate race (from 16% probability last week to 33% probability of winning the state in an election held today), Iowa (45% to 70%) and Montana (30% to 43%). Republicans gained in Kansas (from 50% to 82%). I should note that only a few of the twenty North Carolina polls were taken (or partially taken) after Democrat Cal Cunningham’s “sexting” scandal broke. We’ll need more polls to see how that race develops.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

[Read more…]

Election 2020: The Post Debate Picture

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 363 electoral votes
Mean of 175 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

It has just been one week since my previous analysis—just before the Debate. But, man, it feels like it has been a year! That analysis had former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by, on average, 377 to 161 electoral votes. Biden won all of the 10,000 simulated elections. We have new insight in the form of 66 new state head-to-head polls.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden still wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 363 to Trump’s 175 electoral votes, so Biden’s lead has shrunk by 14 votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

What are the big changes? First, Trump’s chances in Alabama increase from 75% to 100% probability on account of an old mid-August poll being replaced by a current poll with a large sample size from Auburn University. Smaller gains come from Iowa (58% to 63% probability) and Kansas (92% to 99%). The two most important gains are in Ohio, where newer polling take Trump from a 5% to a 54% probability of winning—changing Ohio from Blue to Red on our map, and Texas, where the newer polls increase Trump’s changes from 63% to 91% chance of taking the state. Finally, in Virginia, a Biden+15% poll drops out leaving only a small Biden+5 poll, raising Trump’s chances from less than 1% to 16%.

Biden has made some gains, as well. In Georgia, five new polls coming in and three polls aging out have upped Biden’s chances of taking the state from 41% to 76%, switching the state from red to blue. A new Trump+5 poll in Mississippi replaces an older Trump +10 poll, dropping Trump’s chances from 97% to 87%. Likewise, in Montana, an old poll dropped out leaving behind one smallish poll, so that Trump’s chances drop from 98% to 91%. Clearly, for Mississippi and Montana, we badly need some new polls. We have the opposite situation in New Hampshire, where we went from one current poll to four current polls, all with Biden in the lead. Consequently, Trump’s chances drop from 33% to 0%. Another big change is in North Carolina, where six old polls age out and three new polls weigh in. Out of 19 current polls, Biden leads in 14 of them, Trump leads in three and there are two ties. These boost Biden’s chances from a 69% to 88%.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 05-Oct-2019 to 05-Oct-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ):

Back to the analysis for an election held now, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Stephen: Lindsey Graham is on the ropes in South Carolina as Republicans struggle in several red state races.

John Oliver: The Supreme Court

Now This: What you need to know about the Proud Boys

Samantha Bee: How the school choice debate is failing our public schools

Americans for Decency: Good shenanigans vs. GOP purges and Трамп distractions

Biden—Harris 2020:

Songbird: A tribute to Ruth Bader Ginsburg

Vice News: Inside Portland’s turf war between proud boys and local antifascists

John Oliver: Census update.

Trevor: Wildfires.

AJ+: How Republicans pulled off a massive voter purge

Trainwreck Трамп and His Toy Storm Troopers:

Meidas Touch: Fire Susan—Susan Collins betrayed us

The Late Show: Great moments in debate history—Nuclear missile worries about Reagan’s age

The Daily Show: The GOP makes it harder for ex-felons to vote in Florida

Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s Best Christian: Unpatriotic history

Typhoid Donnie and Other Vectors of Disease, Death, and Decay:

Robert Reich: GOP takeover of the Supreme Court—What you need to know

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Trevor: Rev. Al Sharpton—How to protest based on tangible goals

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Election 2020: Gubernatorial contests

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Democratic Governors Republican Governors
Mean of 23 seats Mean of 27 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

There are not many gubernatorial contests this election cycle. I count only eleven. Still, the races we have hold importance in a census year, as Governors sometimes have a degree of control over the redistricting process. There is only polling for nine of these races, but the three states without polling (DE, ND, WV) seem unlikely to flip.

After 100000 simulated elections Democrats have a 0.0% probability of controlling a majority of gubernatorial seat and Republicans have a greater than 99.9% probability of controlling a majority of gubernatorial seats.

Of the nine polled races, the only state with a chance to flip is Montana. Governor Steve Bullock is term limited and running for a Senate seat. Republican Greg Gianforte has the upper hand over Democrat Mike Cooney, with an 87% to 13% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of gubernatorial seats from the simulations:

[Read more…]

Election 2020: On the eve of the first debate….

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 377 electoral votes
Mean of 161 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

My analysis last Wednesday showed former Vice President Joe Biden with a solid lead of 380 to President Donald Trump’s 158 electoral votes. There have been 55 new state head-to-head polls to weigh in on this race. Also, I’ve corrected a typo in a Florida poll that, combined with other polls, skewed the state slightly toward Biden (see the discussion in the comment thread for more information).

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 377 to Trump’s 161 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning. This shows Trump gaining very slightly. Trump’s gains primarily came from 4 states:

  1. A big boost in Georgia (from a 15% to a 59% probability) from three polls with Biden ahead that aged out, and one new poll with Trump up by +1%
  2. A slight decrease in Biden’s chances of winning North Carolina, dropping from 71% down to 69%
  3. A slight boost in Trump’s chances from 96% to 99% in South Carolina
  4. A big boost in Trump’s chances in Texas from 48% to 63%

Biden has seen some gains, as well, in five states and two congressional districts:

  1. Trump slips from 70% to 56% after the only recent Alaska poll was released. The poll was done by a Democratic PAC polling the Alaska Senate race, so you are right to be a bit skeptical or, at least, want more polling.
  2. Trump slips slightly in Iowa from a 63% to a 58% probability of winning
  3. Trump slips a bit from 99% to a 92% probability of taking Kansas as two old polls age out and one new poll gives Trump a modest lead
  4. In Maine’s 2nd congressional district, a Trump+1.8% poll drops out and a new poll boosts Biden from 86% to a 92% chance of taking its electoral vote. Biden now leads in all five current polls in the district.
  5. Nebraska’s second congressional district gets a second poll that boosts Biden from a 61% to a 86% probability of taking the district
  6. Three new Nevada polls, including an astonishing Biden+11% poll from Fox News, raises Biden’s chances from 75% to 98% of taking the state
  7. In Ohio, one Trump+5% poll ages out and three new polls, all with Biden in the lead, are released. Biden goes from a 48% to a 63% probability of winning in Ohio

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 28 Sep 2019 to 28 Sep 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ):

Back to the current analysis, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

Election2020: Control of the Senate

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Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability
less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 53 seats
Mean of 47 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

I suppose it is about time for some analyses of the 2020 races for the U.S. Senate. As with the presidential state head-to-head polls, I’ve been collecting senate head-to-head polls for senate races. We now know the general election candidates in all races except the Georgia 2 special election and the Louisiana senate race, but we’ll be assuming that the Republican incumbents will eventually win these races.

Although these analyses are for each state in which there is a senatorial election, we will aggregate the results to look at the probability that the Senate will remain in the hands of the Republicans or flip to the Democrats. Of course, the third possibility is a 50-50 tie, in which case the outcome of the presidential election determines which party controls the Senate. Given the strength of former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump, I’ll assume ties go to the Democrat, although occasionally I’ll report both ways. Perhaps later on, I’ll change the reporting to systematically include results each way.

As of this afternoon, I’ve collected 361 head-to-head polls in the senate races. For some state there are many polls, like the 66 polls for the N.C. senate race between Republican Sen. Thom Tillis and Democratic candidate Cal Cunningham. For other states, there are not so many polls—like zero polls in Delaware, Massachusetts, Oregon, Nebraska, among others. Idaho and Illinois have only one poll each, and New Jersey only has two polls. Clearly, some states have few, or no, polls because the race isn’t particularly competitive. States with many polls are either competitive, or are interesting for some other reason—perhaps there is a gubernatorial race or it is an important toss-up state in the presidential race. For North Carolina, both are true. When I have no polling in a race, the incumbent wins the state for each simulated election.

Even with 361 polls, I will always use a subset of the most current polls. Right now, my rule is to use polls taken over the past month, but that window may tighten as Nov. 3 approaches.

Let’s get on with it! After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 97,022 times, there were 2,936 ties, and Republicans control the Senate 42 times. By this analysis, if the election was held today, Democrats would have a 100.0% probability of controlling the Senate. If we have a Republican Vice President, the probability drops to 97% for Democrats and 3% for Republicans.

There is only one state likely to go from Democrat to Republican, and that is Alabama. Tommy Tuberville (R) has led in all 7 polls ever taken in this race, and he is likely to unseat Sen. Doug Jones.

There are three states likely to flip from Republican to Democrat: Arizona, Colorado, and North Carolina. In Arizona, former astronaut Mark Kelly (D) has led Sen. Martha McSally (R) in all 15 polls taken in the past month. He has led in almost all of the 66 polls taken in this race going back to early last year.

In Colorado, former Governor John Hickenlooper has led in all eleven polls taken in this race going back to Aug 2019. Many of the polls showed a double digit lead for Hickenlooper.

And then there is North Carolina, where Cunningham (D) has led Tillis (R) in all 21 polls taken in the last month—one of the polls is a near tie with Cunningham up 322 “votes” to 320. We have to go back 43 polls, all the way back to June to find a poll where Tillis leads Cunningham, but only by a single “vote”: 474 to 473. Cunningham leads in a majority of older polls going back to June of 2019.

In the toss-up category, we have a surprising number of states: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, and South Carolina. In Alaska, the most recent poll is tied, but the two older polls had Sen Dan Sullivan (R) leading Al Gross (D). The most recent poll in Iowa is also a tie, but going back to June, Sen Joni Ernst (R) has only carried two polls while her challenger Theresa Greenfield (D) has led in 10 polls.

In Kansas there is also a tie in the most recent poll. But Roger Marshall (R) has led Barbara Bollier (D) by 1% margins in the three polls taken since June. Mississippi is a surprise tie. Sen Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is being challenged by Mike Espy (D). The only current poll has Hyde-Smith up by 1%. There were 5 previous polls, all taken before June, where Hyde-Smith had a solid lead. We definitely need more polling in Mississippi!

South Carolina is one of the most interesting of the senate races. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) is being challenged by Jamie Harrison. Graham led Harrison through March, but since then, there have been three ties, Graham has had (mostly) small leads in 5 polls, and Harrison has had a small lead in one of the most recent polls.

Finally, the Georgia race between Sen. David Perdue (R) and Jon Ossoff (D) is close enough to merit mention. Perdue has led in the most recent five polls, but there were two ties, and Ossoff led in one poll before that, all within the last month. Perdue has the momentum for now, and the simulated results give him a 84% probability of keeping his seat.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

[Read more…]

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Trevor: No officers indicted for the shooting of Breonna Taylor.

Conan reads a Christmas tale for 2020

WaPo: The origins of policing in America.

Biden-Harris 2020:

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News Anchor Trace Gallagher fails live math and geography tests within 3 minutes.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

The Dotard Трамп and His Band of Treasonweasels and Despot Wannabes:

Conan: QAnon News Break—Santa Claus edition

Americans for Decency: Lying liars lie—Ted Snooze, Inc.

Vox: How US abortion policy targets the poor.

RIP RBG:

Samantha Bee: It’s about time we banned private detention centers Pt., 1

Samantha Bee: It’s about time we banned private detention centers Pt., 2

The ТрампPlague:

Dulcé Sloan: What is the monetary cost of police brutality? Billions.

Conan: Get a healthy dose of reality with Realitrex

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Election 2020: Slight gains for Trump

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 380 electoral votes
Mean of 158 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Some 40 new state head-to-head polls have been released since my previous analysis was posted last Friday. Many of the new polls have been taken partially or fully after the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, an event that could possibly change the dynamics of the Presidential race between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump. If so, it has not affected the expected outcome of a (hypothetical) election held now.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 380 to Trump’s 158 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

Last week’s analysis gave Biden 389 and Trump 149 electoral votes (on average) so, for the moment, Biden has stopped gaining electors, although it is too early to say that Trump has the momentum going forward. With newly released polls, Trump made modest gains in Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district (13% to 39% probability of winning that district’s elector) and Texas (22% to 48% probability of winning the state). He made smaller gains in Georgia (12% to 15%), North Carolina (23% to 29%) and South Carolina (92% to 96%). At the same time, Trump lost modest ground in Alabama (100% to 77%) and Louisiana (100% to 87%) and lost a bit of ground in Iowa (66% to 63%).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

  • 369 electoral votes with a 2.55% probability
  • 360 electoral votes with a 2.11% probability
  • 413 electoral votes with a 2.05% probability
  • 389 electoral votes with a 2.00% probability
  • 407 electoral votes with a 1.78% probability
  • 375 electoral votes with a 1.78% probability
  • 397 electoral votes with a 1.68% probability
  • 385 electoral votes with a 1.66% probability
  • 406 electoral votes with a 1.57% probability
  • 395 electoral votes with a 1.54% probability

The long term trend in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 23-Sep-2019 to 23-Sep-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (when possible…see the FAQ).

[Read more…]

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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act.tv: RFK’s ripple of hope still matters today.

Eleven Films: Unite against the violence.

Biden-Harris 2020:

Stephen: Journalist Jacob Soboroff on children being tortured inside America’s immigration detention centers.

Now This: Women in ICE custody say they were subjected to unwanted hysterectomies

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

RIP RBG:

WaPo: Understanding WeChat, the essential Chinese social media app.

Vice News: This Texas County is taking the drive-thru model for voting.

Solana Rice and Jeremie Greer: Racism is profitable

The Dotard Трамп and Other Murderous Despot Wannabes:

Stephen: Journalist Jacob Soboroff—Americans are not paying attention to atrocities happening in our immigration system.

Courtney Jaye: Ted has no balls

Vox: What long voting lines in the US really mean

ТрампPlague:

BuzzFeed: How the stock market works in under 8 minutes

Naomi Ekperigin (Full Frontal): From memes to movement—Is Instagram activism getting us anywhere?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Election 2020: Biden is still gaining on Trump

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 389 electoral votes
Mean of 149 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

My previous analysis was before the conventions. Now, roughly a month after the conventions, any movement from the conventions should become apparent.

To assess an election held today, we simulate 100,000 elections using the past month of polls as “current” and only using older polls if there are no current polls. From that exercise, Joe Biden won all 100,000. Biden received (on average) 389 to Donald Trump’s 149 electoral votes, a modest improvement for Biden from the 378 to 160 electoral vote lead he had at the end of July. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 18 Sep 2019 to 18 Sep 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Clearly, Biden has the lead and the momentum at this point in the election season, with his expected electoral vote total tending to climb since January. Details for the the most recent simulation is found below the fold.

[Read more…]

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Bill Maher: Side with teacher.

Roy Zimmerman: : I approve this message.

Biden—Harris 2020:

Samantha Bee: Why police aren’t protecting our kids in school.

Vox: How America can leave fossil fuels behind, in one chart

Seth Meyers: Jane Fonda on Nixon ordering her arrest and civil disobedience

The Dotard Трамп and Other Slackers, Prevaricators and Incompetents:

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

Roy Zimmerman: Defenders of Marriage (performed in 2017).

Jimmy Dore: Mitt Romney really likes eggs!

ТрампPlague:

Trevor: Jane Fonda—Civil disobedience in the name of climate change.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Can’t Bring Yourself to Type the Word “Ass”?

Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!

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HA Commenting Policy

It may be hard to believe from the vile nature of the threads, but yes, we have a commenting policy. Comments containing libel, copyright violations, spam, blatant sock puppetry, and deliberate off-topic trolling are all strictly prohibited, and may be deleted on an entirely arbitrary, sporadic, and selective basis. And repeat offenders may be banned! This is my blog. Life isn’t fair.