It’s election night! So drop off those ballots and then join us for some electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Festivities take place at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. beginning about 8:00 pm. Or show up early and dine liberally.

Some say tonight is lady’s night at DL…guys will be buying the drinks…especially for attractive gals dressed in red. It’ll be absolutely scandalous!

Not in Seattle? With 340 other chapters of Drinking Liberally, there is sure to be one around your corner.

A new KING-5/Survey USA poll in the Seattle Mayoral Race was released today. This race has Mike McGinn facing off against Joe Mallahan. Just last week, a Washington Poll poll had Mallahan leading McGinn by 44% to 36% with 20% undecided. The results suggested that Mallahan had an 89.9% probability of winning.

Today’s poll of 586 people (taken over the weekend) shows a tighter race with Mallahan leading McGinn by 45% to 43%. A Monte Carlo analysis (methods) consisting of 1,000,000 simulated elections using the proportions and sample size observed in this poll shows Mallahan winning 635,831 times and McGinn winning 352,638 times. Statistically, the results are a tie. But Mallahan has a small edge with a 64.3% probability of winning; McGinn has a 35.7% probability of winning.

The distribution of election outcomes from the simulation says it better than numbers:

The red bars on the left are Mallahan wins, and the blue bars on the right are McGinn wins.

There are a number of possible confounders here that make this extremely close race even more uncertain. Most obvious is the age discrepancy in support which The Stranger’s Eli Sanders points out may lead to some systematic (statistical) bias:

Remember, too, that SurveyUSA only reaches voters with land-lines, and that some of McGinn’s strongest support is among younger voters—who frequently only have cell phones.

Who knows….

The non-partisan King County executive race has proud Democrat Dow Constantine squaring off against bashful Republican non-partisan Susan Hutchison. Last week’s Washington Poll gave Constantine a 47% to 34% lead over Hutchison.

A new King-5/Survey USA poll released today essentially confirms last week’s findings. The poll of 614 likely or actual voters gives Constantine a 53% to 43% lead over Hutchison with 5% undecided.

As usual, I’ll use the poll numbers and sample size to assess the probability of each candidate winning (methods are given here). The Monte Carlo analysis of a million simulated elections gives Constantine 962,298 wins and Hutchison 35,378 wins. That is, the poll result provides evidence that Constantine will win Tuesday’s election with a 96.5% probability. Hutchison has a 3.5% probability of winning. Here is the distribution of outcomes from the simulated elections:

The red bars are wins for Hutchison, and the blue bars are Constantine wins.

This is the first big test since last November’s initiative made the Executive a non-partisan position. And it sure looks like the electorate won’t be fooled by this non-partisan stuff.

This should satisfy a frightening need for an open thread….

(And there are plenty more media clips from the past week in politics posted at Hominid Views.)

Please join us tonight for some politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Festivities take place at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. beginning about 8:00 pm. Or show up earlier for some dining liberally.

And feel free to bring along your favorite book of liberal propaganda…

Not in Seattle? With 339 other chapters of Drinking Liberally, there is sure to be one around your corner.

The difference between FAUX and the News explained:

(This and forty more media clips from the past week in politics can be found at Hominid Views.)

Please join us tonight for some politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Festivities take place at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. beginning at 8:00 pm. Some of us show up early for dinner.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Tndry1HvP0[/youtube]

Not in Seattle? With 340 other chapters of Drinking Liberally, there is bound to be one near you.

Please join us tonight for some politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. The festivities take place at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. beginning at 8:00 pm.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ju5GhNCz_yY[/youtube]

Not in Seattle? The Drinking Liberally web site has dates and times for 340 other chapters of Drinking Liberally for you to shoot for.

Please join us tonight for some politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. The festivities take place at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. beginning at 8:00 pm.

Go ahead…put your evening on hold to help fight the fascists….

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMRK2oSo82Y[/youtube]

Not in Seattle? The Drinking Liberally web site has dates and times for 340 other chapters of Drinking Liberally for you to shoot for.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCesaJ479Vw[/youtube]

(And there are forty+ other media clips from the past week in politics featured at Hominid Views.)

Please join us tonight for some politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. The festivities take place at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. beginning at 8:00 pm.

There will be some celebration of today’s 83% near-victory. The public death panel option is just around the corner….

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9U3IX3dyYo[/youtube]

Not in Seattle? The Drinking Liberally web site has dates and times for 337 other chapters of Drinking Liberally for you to shoot for.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZa3hTGorxs[/youtube]

(There are some 60 other media clips from the past week in politics posted at Hominid Views.)

Update: In celebration of Glenn Beck day in Mt. Vernon, WA, I’ve put together a collection of my favorite Glenn Beck video clips.