One of the things that doesn’t get discussed enough in politics is the fact that we don’t know what the future will hold. I think we all know this in the general sense, but we tend to discount it when discussing policy making.

It struck me recently after the debt crisis. We were told the debt ceiling would have to be raised to avoid downgrading US debt and keep the stock market from going crazy. Well, the debt ceiling was raised and the debt was downgraded (by one agency) and the market went crazy. There were also all sorts of possibilities before the vote about what might happen if we had defaulted from it wouldn’t be so bad to it would have been horrible.

So who was right and who was wrong? Well, we know what happened after we passed the debt ceiling, obviously. But we don’t know what would have happened if a better deal had been reached or if we’d defaulted. We can make educated guesses, but in an unprecedented situation like a default, it’s only a guess.

And the same holds true in international affairs. At the start of the Libya conflict, Lee wrote about the potential humanitarian catastrophe there, and “the possibility of a massacre that could’ve taken 100,000 lives” had we done nothing. Not to put any faith in Gaddafi, and certainly not to dismiss the possibility, but we don’t know if it would have been 100,000 or far fewer people. And while the war is hopefully reaching its end now, it was tough to know how it would end a few months ago. We also won’t know for some time how the administration’s arguments about the War Powers Act will be used by the next president.

The point here isn’t that we can’t make decisions or move forward. Of course we can. I just wish we’d acknowledge some uncertainty at the start.

Joni Balter has a column mostly arguing that McGinn should start doing things he’s been doing (and saying he shouldn’t have put the car tabs on the ballot, but I’m here to focus on her lecturing him to do the things he’s already done).

For example, McGinn could return more cops to the street. Budget woes stopped a five-year police hiring program, but any mayor can fund his priorities. He can and he should.

Return to the street implies there are fewer on the street now. It took me all of a couple minutes to find out that:

Despite the fact that SPD hasn’t hired any new officers for more than a year, it increased the number of patrol officers over the past year from 684 to 693.

Now you can argue that Joni meant that we should hire more police, or that trouble may be coming down the pike if we don’t hire police. But she used the phrase “on the street” so I think it’s fair to say she just doesn’t know. And can’t be bothered with a Google search or that pesky fact checking.

McGinn needs to ensure the Families and Education Levy passes. At least supporting schools and students are things most Seattleites can get their arms around.

Yes. The levy doubled in part because of his leadership. And now he is pushing for it.

At several stops, the mayor told neighbors that education was an important way to enhance public safety and that the levy would help ensure that every child in Seattle had an opportunity to learn and succeed. Staff said the mayor delayed a family vacation in Massachussetts so he could participate in the levy kick-off event.

Maybe it’s unfair to expect Joni Balter to know that. I mean who the hell reads The Seattle Times any more? Still, while the media (and Balter in particular) were bashing McGinn as a one issue mayor, he was actually doing other things.

– If Obama hadn’t been biking and golfing, I bet the earthquake wouldn’t have even happened.

– Cascade Bike’s Energizer Stations

– I’m embarrassed about how few of these books I’ve read.

– Both sides are equally Zzzzzzzz.

– Me too, also, too.

– A nice side effect of doing the right thing.

I sent the following questions to all of the candidates for Seattle City Council. I’ll put the answers up in Tuesdays and Thursdays: Sept. 6 & 8 for position 1, Sept. 13 & 15 for position 3, Sept. 20 & 22 for position 5, Sept. 27 & 29 for position 7 and October 4 and 6 for position 9. First candidate to respond on Tuesday, second on Thursday. There is a good chance some of the candidates won’t respond, if that’s the case, I’ll probably make up snarky answers for them.

1) Crime is down in the city, but we’ve seen some horrible incidents with the police in recent years. How do we ensure public safety and not have those sorts of things happen in the future?

2) Now that the Viaduct is coming down, what should the waterfront look like?

3) As the great recession drags on, the city budget is still hurt. What do we need to cut, what do we need to keep, and do we need to raise more money via taxation?

4) With its budget shrunk at least until the end of the recession what should Seattle parks look like?

5) What is the Seattle’s role in education and public transportation given how important they are to the city, but that other agencies are tasked with them?

– Seriously, BackPage, just do photo ID.

– Rick Perry seems to have given up on the book he wrote last year.

– Sad to say, I didn’t know much about Jack Layton (h/t) or Nick Ashford in life.

– The liquor initiative sure has a lot of money on both sides.

– Best bike rack ever!

– Even as things are going well, I’m much more skeptical about Libya than Lee. But there is still a lot of uncertainty.

– I think we should care about this wasp not because it has utilitarian value to us, but because it is another example of the amazing evolutionary history and diversity of life on earth.

The Seattle Times had an editorial a few days ago about the results of the School Board primary. Not to worry, they’re exactly as pro-insider as you’d expect.

Challengers raised valid concerns about the School Board’s failure to provide stronger oversight of former Superintendent Maria Goodloe-Johnson or get ahead of serious problems uncovered by state audits.

Voters want to hold elected officials accountable. This is understandable at any position, but especially with the school board. The school board is a mess. Goodloe-Johnson’s tenure was horrible. The teachers are sidelined by the administration. I can’t imagine why anyone would support any of the incumbents.

The Times editorial board endorsed all of the incumbents and one challenger in a nod toward stability and experience. The candidates we endorsed stood out in a crowded field marked by inexperience and unfocused answers about solutions.

THEIR EXPERIENCE WAS FUCKING UP! That’s what they did. All of them. Jesus, by that logic you can never vote against any incumbent. Hell, you can never fire anyone by that logic.

– I did not mean to imply that Bachmann might have been anything other than awful for the country thus far.

– Time to Play on Rainier Ave.

– This pastry prevents Rick Perry from explaining why he thinks Social Security is unconstitutional.

– The Civil War Isn’t Tragic.

– Dave Reichert’s unemployment line.

OK, this has been bouncing around my brain for a while. In an open thread a week or so ago, I made a passing reference to the fact that unions are more grassroots than large corporations or one rich guy. The background is that 3 initiatives qualified for the ballot: one a Tim Eyman initiative largely funded by Kemper Freeman, one a let Costco sell booze initiative funded by Costco and one a home healthcare initiative funded by SEIU.

It paints a nice picture if you’re a reporter or a journalist. Tut tut, all sides do it. But I’m sorry to let the people using that sort of construction know, no they aren’t the same. The editorial makes a special case that one person funding an initiative is particularly bad. Fair enough, I guess. Still, corporations, especially large ones like Costco, are nearly as unaccountable. But one of these things is not like the other. Unions are accountable to their membership.

SEIU (and all unions) have to be accountable to their membership. That’s a more engaged group than disinterested shareholders or boards of directors who are often buddy buddy with the CEO. If SEIU’s initiative fails, they’ll rightly be held to account by members who paid dues and elected union officers. When Costco’s last liquor initiative failed, there was no fallout. They just put another one on the ballot.

And membership does hold its officers to account. Those of us in or with family or friends in unions know plenty of people who take active part in union activity. My aunt was a teacher in another state and she and some of the other teachers in her district ousted the old guard who were, “on the take.” This sort of thing happens regularly in unions, but hardly ever in the corporate world.

To get back to this initiative season, SEIU’s home health care initiative is not only something that benefits the union and its membership, but is also of benefit to anyone who needs to hire a home healthcare worker in Washington. We’ll know that our loved ones and ourselves are in good hands. Even if you think Costco’s initiative is beneficial, they only put it on the ballot to make money. So, no, when a union gets something on the ballot that benefits its members and the state, it’s not the same as when a corporation buys itself a law.

OK, almost certainly not. But here are some thoughts with a day’s reflection:

First off, I’m somewhat ambivalent about initiatives. There is too much money in them, and they have all sorts of problems, but I’m not ready to do away with them. Still, I’m glad it made the ballot even if it lost. Before McGinn’s election the cost overrun provision being enforced was a given. After his election, most people said it wasn’t enforceable. And during the campaign, both candidates for governor and most of the political establishment said Seattle wasn’t on the hook. So it helped shift the debate on the sticking it to Seattle aspect of the project (in my opinion the worst part, and the thing McGinn ran against throughout his campaign). I suspect we’ll start to hear the establishment push for enforcement of the cost overrun provision again, but at least we had a year and a half, and especially this year, where they had to oppose it.

Second, I didn’t mention the drunk Legislative staffers I got into an argument with (and I’m not going to name names here) in last night’s post. But try to isolate McGinn all you want, he has been a better mayor than Dow has been an executive or Gregoire has been a governor. I’ll take McGinn’s record over Gregoire’s or Dow’s any day of the week and twice on Sunday. While Gregoire and the Democrats in the Legislature are cutting education and social services to the bone and beyond, while King County has had to cut social services and had a hell of a time just getting continued bus service at a much higher cost for riders, McGinn has signed a budget that doesn’t cut social services and has put transit and education improvements on the ballot.

You can say that he was in a better position when he took office; you can say he doesn’t have to deal with Eastern and Southern Washington or Eastern and Southern King County; you can decide how much of that is McGinn and how much is the City Council. That’s all fine, but I’ll take McGinn’s record of human decency, at least potentially better transit, and better education over Gregoire’s Republican budgets and Dow’s 2 zone peak trip costs $3 each way (and one zone trips are expensive too) for the same service.

Third, I hope I’m wrong, but the I-Told-You-Sos are going to be some comfort. When people complain about the worse traffic downtown, or when they wonder where the on and off ramps went, at least I’ll be able to say, “you were warned.” If buildings have to close or the cost overruns are somehow back on Seattle, if the tunnel machine gets stuck, well that’ll be awful and I hope it doesn’t happen, but at least I’ll be able to say something.

– Sidewalk dining is by far the best news to come out of yesterday.

– $60 isn’t going to get us as much as $80, but let’s pass this thing.

– What could go wrong? (h/t)

– Rick Perry’s gaff machine seems to be familiar to Texans. I have a friend, a recent transplant from Austin, who was about as pissed off about him getting in the race as I’ve ever seen anyone pissed off about anything. Also, on the subject of Rick Perry, what the hell? I mean seriously. But at least there’s a good rule of thumb.

– Plutocrat Pete.

– This thread is going to keep me eating well for a while to come.

Here’s the King County results page. First drop (I believe, the absentees they had on hand) at 8:15. I’m rooting against the tunnel, and I voted against the incumbents for Seattle City Council, but I wasn’t particularly moved by anyone. If there are any other races you’re following, talk them up in the comments.

I’m off to Havana first for the tunnel people. but I’ll probably stop by a few parties and will update as the night goes on. Here’s your list of places to par-tay.

8:00: Judging from the food out this is definitely the grassroots event. A lot of people and hardly anyone I know. T-15 minutes or thereabouts.

8:06: I’ve made it into a press area (you can get anywhere in a tie, but nobody asked for credentials). If someone notable stops by, I’ll try to get you a quote. This has been the most inside baseball update ever, sorry.

8:18: Early results say Seattle wants to be bullied by the rest of the state, hates Art Walk. With 19.59% of the vote in:

APPROVED 43410 59.66%

REJECTED 29348 40.34%

Mike O’Brien to the crowd after announcing the results “I’m going to have another beer.”

8:45: O’Brien came back and said more telegenic things that you’ll probably see on TV but I’d already closed my laptop.

Also, looks like Forch and Ferguson will face the incumbents. To the extent that anything matters for the general (it doesn’t) Godden was under 50% but both her and Clark have big leads. I’ve been talking to transit nerds, but will probably go find another party.

In the comments, it looks good for Wisconsin and Michael likes Mary Vernor’s lead in Spokane who has 70%.

9:22: No bike parking at the pro tunnel people. The least surprising thing ever. I’m trying to find an elected to ask why they hate art walk.

9:29: Dow says if the legislature had let King County extend the stadium tax, they could have paid to mitigate 619. Ifs and buts and all that. Will try to find more.

9:43: Reuven Carlyle will look into if there’s any way for the state to do anything to mitigate 619 (my email’s at the top of the post, Reuven).

10:08: I’m a Forch’s party but he isn’t here.

Michelle Bachmann will be awful for the country. The fact that she’s even in contention is worrying. Her policies will be bad for working people, bad for the environment, bad basic decency. She may be the worst person to run for president with any chance of winning in my lifetime. A lifetime that includes Pat Robertson’s George W. Bush’s Newt Gingrich’s run and many other horrible people. Please don’t vote for her. Believe me when I say that I hate the fact that I’ll be defending her for the rest of this post.

I somehow missed a lot of the Newsweek cover when it came out. So I didn’t comment on it. But it’s still pretty awful. Then during the last GOP debate I noted that she was asked a sexist question. And now this! Seriously, everybody, stop with the sexist bullshit.

Let’s start with the pictures. Everybody takes bad pictures and good pictures. And there’s nothing inherently sexist about choosing an unflattering picture. We’ve all seen men politicians with bad pictures taken of them. The main problem with Newsweek is that it was a studio shoot. Generally in those they pick better pictures of the subject. Newsweek chose that picture to look strange in a way that I can’t recall them doing to a man in a cover shoot.

In the picture of her eating a corn dog, well if you can’t spot what’s wrong with it, perhaps I won’t explain it here on a nice family blog. I’ll just say that I don’t recall similar pictures of men on the campaign trail.

Finally, the question York asked at the Republican debate:

In 2006, when you were running for Congress, you described a moment in your life when your husband said you should study for a degree in tax law. You said you hated the idea. And then you explained, “But the Lord said, ‘Be submissive. Wives, you are to be submissive to your husbands.’”

As president, would you be submissive to your husband?

Seriously, what does that even mean in context of the presidency? One time your husband said you should go to law school and you did, therefore will he decide the cabinet? What treaties to sign? There’s no evidence whatsoever in her time in the MN legislature or Congress that she’d submit her public policy decisions to her husband. And while I don’t think women should submit to their husbands in their personal lives, I don’t see how that’s relevant to her qualifications for office, nor do I see this sort of question being asked of a man.

All of this isn’t to say you can’t criticize her on a whole range of things. Nobody’s above criticism and she’s got a particularly awful track record. Just let’s try to keep sexism out of our criticism.

– The story of the Metro Route 48 is pretty amazing.

– The city council lost its best excuse not to put the full $80 on the ballot. But they’re still not going to.

– What could go wrong with a tunnel (h/t Mike O’Brien on Facebook)?

– Good on Warren Buffet.

– We’ve seen Rick Perry before, he was called George W. Bush.

I love the deal to end the free ride zone (Is it a zone or an area? I’ve always called it a zone, but John Jensen at calls it an area at the link. Then again I still call it the Bus Tunnel, so let’s concede that a transit expert may know more than me about transit terminology.) and adopt the $20 car tab/saving bus service. In addition to the points Jensen made, the economic rule about free things (that people don’t value them) certainly applies to the free ride zone.

The jokes about the rolling homeless shelters have been around since I’ve been in Seattle. You find yourself sitting next to a drunk or a junkie sometimes. Of course we all try to ignore them, but sometimes you can’t if they smell like piss or are yelling. I imagine it’s worse if you’re a woman, and there’s harassment, etc. Those riders will still be on the bus, but in fewer numbers and more distributed throughout the system. Buses aren’t equipped to handle social services anyway.

The other problem is that all the people who can’t afford to pay get off the bus at the same time. I’ve always suspected that at least part of the reason that the open air drug market on Bell Street is so persistent is that all the junkies who ride back and forth in the free ride area get off there (there are other factors, of course, the Recovery Cafe was nearby for a long time, there were businesses that catered to that clientele, a general neglect of downtown).

I guess what I’m saying is that while the $20 tabs and saving bus service is clearly the best part of the deal, ending the free ride zone is a nice bonus. Here’s hoping they implement the changes well.

The other day when Patty Murray was appointed to the Superduperextraspecialcommittee, I noted that the choice of words calling her a co-chairwoman was potentially off.

Also, one other thing. The Caucus piece linked above refers to her as the future “co-chairwoman” of the committee. I assume that means the Republican co-chair will also be a woman. Otherwise, let’s hear it for gender neutral language in the future.

Well, sad to say, she won’t even be the co-woman on the panel. Yes, that’s right, our government has decided that a population underrepresented in Congress should be even underrepresenteder in the Awesomesaucepeachykeancommittee.

Asked by PubliCola whether Murray felt the makeup of the committee is fair or representative, Murray’s spokesman Eli Zupnick responded: “Senator Murray would always like to see more women at the table, but as the only one on this Committee she will be in there fighting for those women who don’t have a voice at the table—as well as for everyone who is counting on her and her colleagues to come together with a balanced plan that works for families across the country.”