Goldy

I’d heard from a couple woeful Greg Nickels supporters this week who hadn’t bothered to vote in Tuesday’s primary election, figuring the incumbent mayor was a shoe-in for the general… but you know, one always hears stories like this, so I hadn’t given it much thought. But yesterday I heard from a Nickels volunteer who told me a story that gave me pause.

The volunteer (anonymous to you, but well known to me) had been working the phone banks over the last couple days of the campaign, encouraging likely Nickels supporters to mail in their ballots, and he talked to “at least a dozen” voters who said they planned to vote for Nickels in November but were intending to game the primary by voting for who they perceived to be the weakest opponent (usually, but not always, Mike McGinn). The assumption was that Nickels was a shoe-in to make it through to the general, and so they could afford to divert their vote to game the system.

Oops.

Of course, this anecdote is merely, um, anecdotal, so unless I hear from other phone bank volunteers who report similar conversations with voters, I’ll have to leave it at that. But it does make me wonder how complacent Nickels supporters might have been, and if the broader public had understood that the mayor might really come in third to Mallahan and McGinn, whether he really would have come in third at all?

Speculation, sure. But that’s a lot of what I do.

Did you know that a round trip ticket bought at a Link light rail station is actually a day pass for the fare zone purchased, good for as many rides as you can fit into the current calendar day?

Riding the Link to the mayor’s press conference yesterday I bought a roundtrip ticket between Othello and downtown, and happened to run into one of the Sound Transit inspection teams while on the train. I flashed my ticket, and that was that, and apparently none of the other passengers on the roughly half-full train had any problems either. But it got me thinking.

My ticket had the date and the $2.00 zone value printed boldly on the card, with “Adult $4.00” in smaller print along with the names of the starting and destination stations. But there was no time stamp or expiration printed anywhere on the card… and really, how could there be? I might return any time, and the same ticket was issued as valid fare in both directions. And since the ticket is never punched, scanned or collected, I could use it multiple times throughout the day, getting on and off at various stations within the purchased zone.

So I asked folks at Sound Transit whether I had discovered a flaw in their fare system, and was flatly told no. They don’t seem to advertise it, but these tickets are day passes; in fact, it says “Puget Pass” on the front of the ticket, and clearly states on the back: “Pass is valid during the day(s)/week(s/month(s)/year(s) shown.” Furthermore, it’s valid for face value service throughout the region, on Community Transit, Sound Transit, Pierce Transit, Metro and Sound Transit. In that sense it’s even better than a bus transfer; one can ride the light rail, and then use the same ticket repeatedly throughout the region’s bus and commuter rail system, paying the difference between the face value and the fare where need be.

At least through the end of the year.

When I asked why anybody would use an Orca Card, which dings you for every boarding, rather than an all-day Puget Pass, I was told that a) few commuters take more than a single roundtrip ride a day; and b) come January, paper tickets and bus transfers would no longer be accepted as valid transfers, while the Orca Card would continue to seamlessly operate as such.

Fair enough. But for the moment, these roundtrip tickets are one helluva bargain, and will still be a pretty damn good deal after the first of the year, especially for folks looking to explore the neighborhoods along the Link line.

On election night, Dow Constantine’s people were just thrilled to see him break away from the rest of the Democratic pack and break the 20-percent mark. So they must be absolutely ecstatic to see him closing the gap with Republican Susan Hutchison as the late arriving ballots are tallied.

What started as a 37-22 margin on election night has now shrunk to a mere 33-27 Hutchison lead with about 90-percent of the expected turnout tallied. Not too shabby considering Hutchison was the only Republican and only woman, while Constantine had to compete with three other Dems.

So, how bad is Tim Eyman’s Initiative 1033? So bad, apparently, that the Washington Realtors’ Tax & Fiscal Policy Committee has reportedly voted unanimously to oppose I-1033. Apparently something to do with it being poorly crafted, ill-timed and a job killer.

The final endorsement decision won’t be made by the Realtor’s Legislative Steering Committee until September, but the fact that there is so much opposition within the Realtors for chrissakes, to an initiative that promises steep property tax cuts, tells you something about how obviously stupid and dangerous I-1033 really is.

One of the things I’ve bemoaned most about our mayor’s race, is that unlike our neighbors to the south in Portland, our City Hall has never seemed to produce a juicy sex scandal.

Or has it?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBGmnqcMGOI[/youtube]

Standing there in the room during his concession speech, you could almost feel the heat of their passion as Mayor Greg Nickels and Deputy Mayor Tim Ceis stared briefly, but lovingly, into each other’s eyes. Who knew?

Mayor Nickels has conceded, and gracefully. (And no, he’s not all that fat; I just liked the pun.) More later.

UPDATE:
I’m back home now, after conveniently riding light rail back and forth to City Hall (you know, the light rail line Mayor Nickels staked his political capital on building), and while I’m waiting for some video to load, I thought I’d just add a few more observations.

As I initially wrote, Mayor Nickels’ concession was quite graceful, but it was also self-effacing, forthright, and at times both funny and touching. There’s no doubt a lot of of folks don’t much like the mayor—Tuesday’s election was a testament to his unpopularity—but had more voters seen this downright likable side to Nickels, I wonder if he would have been giving a concession speech this morning?

I for one thought this race would in the end come down to competence, and thus I never really believed Nickels would lose in the primary, as despite the incessant whining about snow removal and a few bad curbs, he’s proven to be a pretty damn competent mayor, with no hint of personal corruption. In terms of basic infrastructure—roads, rail, schools, fire stations, parks, play fields, etc.—Seattle is a better city than it was eight years ago, and so I guess I never really took seriously public discontent with the mayor himself.

I guess I should’ve known better.

Voters elect people, not issues, and apparently, not enough primary voters liked the mayor enough to get him through to the general. Perhaps if his campaign had done a better job of defining Nickels as a human being, the results might have been different. Or perhaps it was already too late.

Whatever.

I can think of a lot of reasons why one might want to kick out the mayor. I just come away thinking he was kicked out for the wrong reasons.

Word on the street, and from multiple sources, is that former Western Wireless CEO John Stanton has been telling folks he’ll raise a million dollar “independent” expenditure on behalf of closeted-Republican Susan Hutchison in this November’s race for King County Executive.

In addition to Stanton, you can expect the usual Republican suspects to pony up (Kemper Freeman, Skip Rowley, the various McCaws, et al). And don’t be surprised to see a big chunk of change from the normally apolitical Microsoft billionaire Charles Simonyi, who has long had a strangely close relationship with the former KIRO-7 anchor.

I’m one of those who strongly believes that demographics and party alignment strongly favors Dow Constantine in the race, but I’m also one who believes in the power of money to sway votes, especially in the face of our weakened political media. So as bizarrely unqualified and out of step with mainstream King County values as Hutchison really is, we can’t afford to be complacent, especially with R-71 potentially bringing conservative voters out to the polls in force.

Not much good news for Greg Nickels in this afternoon’s ballot drop, with the gap between him and second place finisher Mike McGinn growing, if only slightly, to 1170 votes. I suppose it ain’t over until the fat mayor sings, but with about three quarters of the expected ballots already counted, and the trends not going in his direction, it sure does look like Mayor Nickels will be entering the private sector come January.

One thing I can say for certain is that the Seattle Times editorial board will have an easy time endorsing Mallahan. (Think tunnel.) As for me, I guess I’ll have to start paying closer attention to McGinn and Malahan as opposed to just complaining about their awfully uninspiring campaigns. (And really, all around, this his been a truly disappointing campaign thus far on the part of all the candidates.)

In other election not-quite-news, it looks like the late ballots haven’t trended quite so well for Susan Hutchison as the early ones, with her lead over second place finisher Dow Constantine shrinking from 37-22 on election night, to 34.6-25.0 after today’s drop. I guess the more you get to know Hutchison, the more you, um, know her.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b46ZCMx-RGQ[/youtube]

The Seattle Times this morning asks the question, “Bag fee: bad idea or bad timing?”

Huh. Well, I suppose it could be one or the other or both. Or, and perhaps I’m reaching here, but just maybe Referendum 1’s failure had something to do with the chemical industry outspending the Yes campaign by fifteen to one, an astounding $1.4 million to $95,000 margin? I mean perhaps, if the American Chemistry Council hadn’t spent about twenty bucks a piece for every No vote it would ultimately win, the vote might have been a little closer?

Or maybe I’m crazy, and money has no influence whatsoever on elections?

Of course, the reason the plastic bag industry was willing to spend so much money in a city initiative had nothing to do with lofty ideals or even the plastic bag market here in Seattle. It was to head off a cascade of similar measures in other cities should the Seattle bag fee had gone into effect, and proven to be, well, not so bad and not so unpopular. So here’s what I would do if I were on the Seattle City Council: pass the bag fee ordinance again.

And again. And again, and again and again.

Just keep passing that sucker, forcing the chemical industry to pump a million and half dollars or so into our local media economy year after year after year. It’s good for business and good for our democracy. And it sure would feel good to give the American Chemistry Council the finger.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYlZiWK2Iy8&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Normally, a sound first place finish in a nonpartisan primary would pretty much assure a candidate frontrunner status, but since the race for King County Executive is nonpartisan in name only, not-so-secret Republican Susan Hutchison shouldn’t start measuring the drapes just quite yet.

On the one hand, 37% in an ostensibly five-way race is pretty darn good, especially when you consider that the runner up is trailing far behind at 22%. But that’s not really all that much better than Will Baker numbers, the bare minimum an uncloseted Republican can expect to draw around these parts, and with 57% of voters choosing avowed Democrats, the D to R ratio is actually pretty damn respectable.

So what percentage of these non-Constantine Dems can Hutchison expect to lure in the general? Some, sure, but I’d hazard not nearly enough. Constantine is by far the most qualified candidate remaining, and the only Democrat. And if voters understand that in November, that should be enough to put him well over the top.

I’m still on Other Coast Time, so I couldn’t help but drift off after writing up the 8:15 election results, but I think I dreamt last night that I awoke to find Greg Nickels with a comfortable lead in the Seattle mayor’s race, the later ballot drops having flipped the early numbers. I guess even my unconscious had trouble believing that Mayor Nickels might not survive the primary.

Of course, there wasn’t much in the way of late ballot drops as only the handful of ballots from the county’s three accessible voting centers were added in at 10 PM, and so the mayor really has found himself at the shortest end of a three-way statistical tie in a top-two primary. The mayor’s camp tells me they have some cause for optimism, as late polling showed Nickels doing better against Mallahan than the early vote, so with another 45% or so of ballots still outstanding there’s a good chance the mayor could catch him, but as I wrote last night, they’ve gotta be feeling kinda sad.

Winning a third term is awfully tough (a truism Gov. Gregoire should take to heart as she continues to raise money, presumably in preparation for 2012), even under the best conditions, and these weren’t the best conditions for Mayor Nickels, who despite managing our city into arguably one of the more stable financial situations of any major city, county or state government during this nearly unprecedented economic downturn, has faced brutal attacks on his management skills from a press that apparently believes that his response to a nearly unprecedented snow storm is a better measure of his managerial abilities.

Voters tire of you. And citizens have reason to be fatigued, considering the miserable city response to last December’s snowstorms.

[…] The anti-tunnel vote got a huge bump with support for McGinn, who wants to undo that decision. Welcome to Groundhog Day, as the city revisits the decision again and again. McGinn’s solution, surface transit, will jam our streets and overwhelm the freeway.

Yeah, well, I oppose the tunnel myself (at least, this tunnel, under this financing deal), but perhaps the Times might have thought about the potential consequences before nailing the mayor to the cross over a trumped up Frozen Watergate scandal. (I always find it a little irritating how the press plays such an active role in influencing elections, and then sits back and pretends to be a neutral observer after the fact. At least I’m honest about my activism.)

So as it stands now, we face the very real prospect of the man with the reputation for being one of the greenest mayors in America being unceremoniously shoved aside by an environmental activist. Really?

Don’t get me wrong, Mike McGinn and his supporters deserve a helluva lot of credit for running a grassroots campaign, and impressively so, whatever the final results. I’m eating a breakfast of not so tasty crow this morning for questioning the value of phone banking. And I certainly have my differences with the Nickels administration.

But it’s just hard to believe that a scandal-free mayor of a relatively well-managed city with few if any major problems compared to, say, the big city of my birth from where I’m typing my morning after observations, might potentially fail to make it through such an unimpressive, if crowded field of primary challengers.

How very Seattle of us.

King County Elections dropped the first batch of ballots shortly after 8PM, and… well… blow me down:

Mike McGinn	16810	26.56%
Joe Mallahan	16334	25.81%
Greg Nickels	15859	25.05%

That’s a three-way statistical tie in the Seattle mayor’s race with 17.3% of registered voters counted. Can’t get much more dramatic than that… except for, you know, the excruciating wait over the next week or so as the other half of the ballots slowly trickle in to elections headquarters. (KC Elections still projects a 33% final turnout.)

No doubt the McGinn camp is feeling awfully damn pleased with themselves right now about their grassroots efforts, while the mayor’s folks… well… I suppose they’re feeling kinda sad. As for Mallahan’s folks, well, I’m still not sure there are any Mallahan folks who aren’t actually on payroll.

As for the rest of the King County primary results, there aren’t many surprises. In the executive race, Susan Hutchison leads Dow Constantine 37% to 22%, while Ross Hunter, Fred Jarrett and Larry Phillips are battling it out for a distant third. Meanwhile in the Seattle City Council races it looks like Sally Bagshaw will face off against David Bloom, Nick Licata will go up against Jesse Israel, and Mike O’Brien will take on Robert Rosencrantz.

And of course, the Bag Fee initiative is failing, 58% to 42%.

More later.

When I get back to Seattle the first thing I’m gonna do is get me a handgun, and a license to carry it, and then I plan to start showing up at health care reform town halls.  Armed. You know, just in case.

After all, it is my constitutional right to protect myself, my family and my property, even if it means taking another person’s life in the process. So I invite all of you to show up armed at your next neighborhood town hall meeting and join me in teaching those pussies on the right what it’s like to be a real American.

I’m just sayin’….