Another day another poll in the race between incumbent Senator Patty Murray (D) and real estate speculator and perennial candidate Dino Rossi (R). Just yesterday, an Elway poll showed Murray leading Rossi 50% to 41%. I understand some folks are skeptical about the veracity of Elway’s polls, so this new poll will be interesting….
Today’s poll, by CNN, Time, and Opinion Research, queried 906 likely voters in Washington state. In the poll, Murray leads Rossi by a stunning 53% to 44%. (Among registered voters, rather than likely voters, Murray leads Rossi by 50% to 44%). That’s even more favorable for Murray than the Elway poll!
As usual, I’ll do a Monte Carlo analysis to get a better feel for the odds of each candidate winning as suggested by the new poll results. After a million simulated elections using the likely voter numbers and percentages, Murray won 973,114 times, and Rossi, 25,471 times.
In other words, if the election was held right now, the evidence from this poll suggests Murray would have a 97.4% probability of beating Rossi. Because the winning percentage is over 95%, statisticians would deem this “statistically significant.” That is, Murray’s lead isn’t very likely to be an artifact of a small sample. Here is the distribution of outcomes from the simulation:
That’s a lot of blue there….
Since yesterday’s Elway poll was taken just a few days earlier, we can reasonably combine the evidence from these two polls. There were a combined total of 1,406 “votes” of which 1,334 went to either Murray or Rossi. Murray took 51.9% of the “votes” to Rossi’s 43.0%. A series of simulated elections from the joint polls gives Murray 992,496 wins to Rossi’s 7,124 wins. In other words, these two polls suggest that Murray would have a 99.3% chance of beating Rossi if the election had been held now. Here’s the distribution:
That’s even more blue!
Clearly…the one thing Rossi is badly in need of in this race is more SurveyUSA polling!
Update: Here is what the polling looks like this year for the race….
Clearly, the summer slump has ended.
How is it that Murray leads by 9 points among likely voters, but only 6 points among all voters? Are Murray supporters more likely to vote than Rossi supporters? This would be the opposite of what other polls in this race have shown, and opposite of the trend in pretty much every other poll so far this year.
On the other hand, the numbers make a lot of sense overall to have Murray in the lead. Washington voters prefers Democrats, and Murray is personally pretty popular.
Richard,
Offhand, I would guess that this is related to Didier. Didier probably had a lot of supporters who don’t make it through to the likely voter screen (didn’t vote in 2008 general, or now say they’ll probably sit out the 2010 general). Those folks would probably tell pollsters that, if they bothered to vote, they would hold their nose and vote for Rossi.
Yawn,
After 100,000 simulations FiveThirtyEight forcasts Rossi 54.4 Murray 45.6
http://elections.nytimes.com/2.....washington
Rasmussen Rossi +3
Survey USA Rossie +7
Pick your pollsters, its going to be a tough year for Democrats however, and not since 1930 has the House changed hands without the Senate following suit.
And we know the House is going to fall to the Republicans.
Let let hope spring eternal, November will be a new day a comin
Helmet Hair Hamlet can bring his broom he’s so proud of over to my garage for the fall cleaning.
Always smile when I read “real estate speculator and perennial candidate.”
Drain the swamp. Any repub better than the Dems.
Love this from yesterday
This is, uh, Eleanor Norton, Congresswoman Eleanor Holmes Norton. Uh, I noticed that you have given to uh, other colleagues on the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. I am a, um, Senior Member, a twenty year veteran and am Chair of the Sub-committee on Economic Development, Public Buildings and Emergency Management. I’m handling the largest economic development project in the United States now, the Homeland Security Compound of three buildings being built on the uh, old St. Elizabeth’s hospital site in the District of Columbia along with uh, fifteen other, uh, sites here for, that are part of the stimulus .
I was, frankly, uh, uh, surprised to see that we don’t have a record, so far as I can tell, of your having given to me despite my uh, long and deep uh, work. In fact, it’s been my major work, uh, on the committee and sub-committee it’s been essentially in your sector.
I am, I’m simply candidly calling to ask for a contribution. As the senior member of the um, committee and a sub-committee chair, we have (chuckles) obligations to raise, uh funds. And, I think it must have been me who hasn’t, frankly, uh, done my homework to ask for a contribution earlier. So I’m trying to make up for it by asking for one now, when we particularly, uh, need, uh contributions, particularly those of us who have the seniority and chairmanships and are in a position to raise the funds.
I’m asking you to give to Citizens for Eleanor Holmes Norton, PO Box 70626, DC, 20024. I’ll send you a follow-up note with appreciation for having heard me out. Thanks again.
Murray wins it in a wobble.
(Orbusmax, by the way, has started its Rossi death watch.)
As I mentioned yesterday, the cross-tabs show the 18-35 age range as “N/A”. Apparantly the number of respondents in that age range was so small that they couldn’t be statistically relevent? I’m thinking that’s because so few of them have land lines, and can’t be polled by telephone. If 2008 is any indication, they are now voting overwhelmingly for Democrats, although getting them to actually take the time to vote has always been problematic. So Murray’s lead may even be larger, depending on turnout of the younger voters.
@3, Dewey defeats Truman.
Murray votes lockstep with ImamObaMao–
Here is where the Imam stands Nationally–
Thursday, September 16, 2010
+9% seems a bit out of line.
CNN has a poor track record.
I suspect Murray is still slightly ahead…perhaps a couple points.
Let’s see what the next Rasmussen Poll shows.
Darry–the Didier impact is very slight. He has lost many of his supporters when he threw in the abortion issue out of desperation. That is NOT a Tea Party issue. Didier was deluged with phone calls, e-mails & letters objecting to his personal arrogance and sore loser attitude. Rossi is 100% behind the main Tea Party issues such as smaller government and no more deficit spending.
Didier is a hothead. His political career is over. He simply could not differentiate himself from Rossi on the main Tea Party issues. THEY AGREED!
I suspect it will impact Rossi be <1%.
rhp6033 @ 8
19% of the likely voters in the 08/18-8/19 Survey USA Senate poll were 18 to 34. So I don’t see how CNN/Time/Opinion Research could find that same group to be statistically insignificant. I don’t see public cross-tabs on any of the other polls.
FWIW, SurveyUSA said that 18-34 year olds favored Murray over Rossi 50%-49%, while Rossi won the overall poll by 52%-45%.
You know how folks supposedly dislike “career politicians”? Isn’t Rossi now a career “trying to be” politician? He’s spent many many years and millions (mostly of others money) to try to get a low paying (compared to his business of profiting off others misfortunes) government office. For someone who dislikes government it seems to be he focus of his life.
@10 You’re not very smart are ya…LOL. You keep pointing out over and over and over and over how MUCH more popular Obama is than the last Republican we experimented with. The last time we let Republicans run things their President had an “approval index” of -30 from YOUR SAME POLL. And Obama is still on track with magic perfect all powerful Saint Reagan as this same point in his first term. I don’t think you’re proving what you THINK you’re proving. You’re just pointing out that Obama and the Democratic policies are MUCH more popular than the Republican ones, and as popular as Ronald Reagan as this same point in the career.
Every President since Johnson has had LOWER approval ratings (below 41%) at some point in their terms. But keep hoping! Maybe someday, if Obama’s numbers plummet MUCH MUCH further he’ll end up being as bad in numbers as the last Republican we elected. But that’s a LONG ways to fall yet.
@10 So when the wingnuts talk about “taking back” the country…to what? No one wanted what you had to offer…you TRIED…for 8 years…and sucked HORRIBLY at the job! The worst EVER.
“President Bush will leave office as one of the most unpopular departing presidents in history, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll showing Mr. Bush’s final approval rating at 22 percent.
Seventy-three percent say they disapprove of the way Mr. Bush has handled his job as president over the last eight years.
Mr. Bush’s final approval rating is the lowest final rating for an outgoing president since Gallup began asking about presidential approval more than 70 years ago.”
Obama ain’t magic and MOST of his bad polling comes from liberals unhappy because he hasn’t done enough, and wingnuts who just a Democratic President even if it was Jesus. But even with THAT the country is STILL much happier with what he’s doing that the last Republican attempt. So…your point is what?
Guns Don’t Kill People Dep’t
A “situation” is in progress at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore, where the entire hospital has been evacuated and police tactical squads are searching the facility for a shooter who shot a doctor and is still at large.
But hey! What’s a few casualties compared to protecting the right of any disgruntled yahoo to keep and bear deadly arms?!! A few dead doctors and schoolchildren is a small price to pay for our freedoms!!!
Elway and CNN/Time are Democrat tools so the numbers are most likely weighted in favor of Democrat voters. These poll numbers don’t explain shit.
@6 “Drain the swamp.”
We already did in 2006 and 2008.
“Any repub better than the Dems.”
You gotta quit smoking crack. It’s messing up your cranial functioning.
14. Alki Postings spews:
Please back your claims here with some actual data/facts.
Pulling this conclusion outta yer ass doesn’t cut it Alki.
Funny how you are looking at the only 2 recent polls that favor Dino which are 16 and 30 days old while the 2 polls Darryl is using are 1 and 2 days old.
What exactly is Dino campaigning on these days…that he isn’t as crooked as Carly Fiorina?
@10 KLOWN sez, “Let’s see what the next Rasmussen Poll shows.”
Latest Rasmussen has Murray up 51 -46.
Would you care to discuss how much it sucks to be you?
If Patty Murray told the truth or if people bothered to find out, she’d be run out of the state. She did not stop the tanker deal. She did not save the Wenatche Clinic (not hospital). She lies when she tries to make Rossi responsible for big bank bailouts when Patty herself voted for them. She lies when she says Rossi attened a big lobbyist dinner – it was really the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Patty lies about her own record – she’s among the top two in the entire senate for taking money from big lobbyists. Now she says Rossi wants to ship jobs overseas when he has publically committed to keeping and creating jobs here. Patty is so full of lies and distortions – and money to air them day and night – that she’s obviously relying on the stupidity of people. And unfortunately she might be right on that point. Wake up and check things. Don’t rely on the media because they’re not doing their job.
@20
We don’t know, he only campaigns at invite only events held in gated communities.
Best statement on this thread. DUMMOCRAPTS are stupid…
“Life’s tough. It’s even tougher if you’re stupid.” – John Wayne
When 88% of the slobbering libtardo MSM are continually dissing the man day and night eventually the public begins to agree.
Butt don’t facts slap yo argument away!
Wow,
Just listened to Patty’s lies on KOMO this evening. Amazing… She and Reichert voted the same way… She’s a hero and Reichert is the enemy? Way to go LIBTARDOS!
DelBene take a pay cut? Yeah another mouth moving.