Will you be singing Sweet Home Alabama? Or will Alabama Get Away? Either way this is the place to discuss tonight’s Yellowhammer special election. If it ain’t (broadly) about this election, take that crap to the previous open thread.
I’ll be (*ahem*) Mobile on my way to Roanoke Park Place Tavern, and may post random observations and whatnot as the spirit moves me.
Here’s one for the geeks among us:
Moore's Law: Political insanity doubles every 18 months.
— Bob Cohn (@1bobcohn) December 12, 2017
The needle moved! NYT extrapolating model changes from "tie" to "Jones 0.5" with 2% of precincts reporting…
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) December 13, 2017
Roy Moore's horse Sassy breaks her silence pic.twitter.com/tRWqp3fyLn
— JDCrowe2 (@Crowetoons) December 12, 2017
Tweenie girls LOVE ponies!
— Mordant FreedomVoter (@MordantFV) December 12, 2017
So far, Doug Jones is holding his own in rural Alabama. Still extremely early. #ALSEN
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) December 13, 2017
5:56: AP has Moore leading for the first time, 7% reporting….
6:02: I wish Washington election results would trickle in like this. This “one ballot dump a night” business sucks!
6:05: With 16% precincts reporting, Moore’s lead has shrunk to +2%.
6:10: Now 21% reporting, Moore’s lead is up to +5%
I pray Roy Moore loses, but I am grateful the campaign kept him too
busy to apply for a mall Santa job this year.
— Bette Midler (@BetteMidler) December 12, 2017
6:20: 33% in, Moore up by 5%.
6:26: Now 40% in and Moore is still up by 5%.
Half the votes are counted. Moore leads by four. But the needle is not impressed. pic.twitter.com/GxuBjP4AAo
— Binyamin Appelbaum (@BCAppelbaum) December 13, 2017
6:33: Yep…with 50% of precincts reporting, Moore’s lead over Jones has shrunk to 3%. Remember, bigger and more urban precincts usually report later….
Fmr McConnell chief of staff who often says what McConnell can’t: Thanks, Bannon “for showing us how to lose the reddest state in the union.” https://t.co/67cOT6ltVb
— Christina Wilkie (@christinawilkie) December 13, 2017
6:40: Moore’s lead is back up +7% with 62% in.
6:57: Now 75% reporting and Moore’s lead has shrunk to +3% (51% to 48%).
7:03: Now 77% and Moore’s lead shrinks to +2%.
7:06: And at 81%, Jones is down by -1%.
7:09: And with 85%, Jones is almost even with Moore at 49% each. Jones is still down about 5,000 votes out of a million and some votes.
7:13: NYT still has Jones winning with a 73% probability by a margin of 2.1%
7:15: And as I typed that, the NYT “needle” jumped giving Jones a probability of 84% and a final 2.7% margin.
7:19: AP has 86% of precincts and Moore’s lead is about 500 votes.
7:22: Now we have 88% reporting and Jones is up by 8,000 votes. The NYT web site has Jones probability of winning >95%.
— michaelscherer (@michaelscherer) December 13, 2017
FOX calls it for Jones🙌🙌🙌👋👍👍👍👍 #AlabamaSenateElection
— Artemis (@artemis1954) December 13, 2017
— Dr. John Fulwiler (@Doorcow) December 13, 2017
7:37: I love the fact that Jones’ margin of victory is LESS THAN the number of write-in votes. In so many ways, this qualifies as a STRANGE election!
Huh. I guess God hates child molesters.
— Darryl Holman (@Hominid_Views) December 13, 2017
7:52: If you are an Alabamian, child molestation is worse than being a Democrat. VERY SLIGHTLY WORSE!
It’s not easy to go 0-2 in the same race with two different candidates but @realDonaldTrump just pulled that off. He has Bannon to thank for that 2nd loss
— Chuck Todd (@chucktodd) December 13, 2017