[NWPT43] Once again the early headlines coming out of the Chelan County Courthouse buoyed the spirits of Rossi supporters, and once again the details of Judge Bridge’s actual rulings have deflated the more realistic among them. Four of the five motions didn’t go the Republicans’ way at all. And the fifth… well… not so much either.
While we’ll have to wait for release of the transcript to parse the full meaning from todays rulings, I wasn’t about to simply rely on the MSM for immediate analysis. I had my own fly on the wall, who shared with me a few of the more interesting details that have yet to be reported in the press.
First let me make absolutely clear that despite the initial headlines (and Rossi spokeswoman Mary Lane’s perfunctory exclamation of victory,) Judge Bridges did not rule that he would accept the GOP’s proposed “proportional deduction” methodology to divvy up the illegal votes based on statistical patterns. He simply did not reject statistical evidence per se. In effect, on what Lane triumphantly called “the big issue of the day,” we are simply left with the status quo.
The Judge decided that he would hold what is called a “Frye Hearing,” a hearing at which he will consider the admissibility of expert scientific testimony… specifically, the application of various proposed methods of statistical analysis. But Judge Bridges was unequivocal in stating that his decision “should not be interpreted as a pretrial ruling adopting the statistical analysis methodology.” Indeed, my insider tells me that at the pre-trial conference in the afternoon, one of the first things the Judge did was set the date of the Frye Hearing. (He had wanted to do it on May 17, but for scheduling purposes it will occur during the trial week.) And the fly reports that there was nothing in Judge Bridges statements that indicated he favored such an analysis.
Thus one can view this as a Republican victory, only in the sense that it didn’t immediately pull the plug on their case entirely. Indeed…
Mark Braden, the high-powered Republican lawyer brought in from Washington, D.C., to help Rossi’s cause, said after the hearing that if Bridges had blocked the proportional analysis strategy, the GOP case would have been lost.
As it is, Braden said, “We’re not out of the woods until the Supreme Court of this state says: ‘New election!’ “
Yeah… sure Mark. Whatever.
If only the rest of the day’s rulings had been so ambiguous, Braden’s enthusiasm would not have come across as so forced. But the remainder of the day went almost entirely the Democrats’ way, not the least of which being the Judge’s rejection of a GOP motion to prevent the D’s from introducing new evidence. Press accounts have reported this ruling as it relates to the 432 alleged illegal felon votes the D’s have found in pro-Rossi precincts (with more to come,) but my fly tells me the ruling came not in a discussion of illegal votes, but rather about whether the D’s could introduce evidence of additional ballots that should be counted, but weren’t.
Remember those 735 “signature not found” ballots that came to our attention after King County Councilman Larry Phillips learned his ballot was among them? 566 of them were counted after a legal tussle in the state Supreme Court, padding Christine Gregoire’s lead by 120 votes. You ever wonder what happened to the other 169 of them? Well most of these were not counted because King County couldn’t find the registration record by the certification deadline. There are also an additional 82 absentee ballots set aside because they “needed research” and 622 “cancelled” provisional ballots… all of which the Judge ruled the D’s may admit into evidence, representing a potential mother lode of Gregoire votes. Or so says the fly.
There were several other rulings that could play a major role in deciding the case. As previously reported, Judge Bridges has ruled that neither party may rely on the counties’ voter-credit records to prove that a vote was cast, calling crediting a “post-election administrative exercise” (told you so, Stefan.) Instead, the parties must find an actual signature in a poll-book or on an absentee or provisional envelope. In addition, Judge Bridges laid out six standards for proving an illegal felon vote: the voter was convicted of a felony, as an adult, was not given a deferred sentence, has not had his voting rights restored, had cast a ballot in the November election, and… actually voted for a gubernatorial candidate.
As David Postman reports in his updated article in the Seattle Times, Judge Bridges acknowledges that this won’t be easy.
“I recognize that it may just simply be impossible to come up with all of these elements I have referred to,” he said. But he told the attorneys, “come up with all you have.”
And it won’t be made any easier by the fact that they have only three weeks to compile their evidence, and only four days each to present it. And if that’s not hard enough, Judge Bridges ruled that he will require a relatively high standard of proof — “clear and convincing” — and not just for the felon ballots, but apparently, for the entire case as a whole. Indeed, my fly pointed out that the Judge “spontaneously” indicated that there seemed to be a theme to Rossi’s arguments, that somehow all they needed to prove was a bunch of errors… and he went out of his way to make it clear that they had to prove — by clear and convincing evidence — that Rossi actually won the election.
So those are the facts as I know them. I’ll post a few observations of my own, after a good night’s sleep.
At the rate Rossi is “winning” rulings, Gregoire will end up with a 4-figure lead! :D
Goldy–
I wouldn’t claim “VICTORY” quite yet if I were you. A number of those 432 Democratic “felons” had rights restored and turned out to be legal….and NO, I’m not just saying that because Chris Vance says so. The Dems have even more work to do than the R’s because a number of the R’s “felon list” have already been publicly investigated, verified and removed from the voter list with due process. Those are “in the bank” so to speak.
The other thing you might want to do is go back and “parse” some of the R’s allegations in their election contest complaint. Not everything in that complaint was part & parcel to some pre-trial ruling.
GOLDY–
“One man’s parsing is another man’s spin.”
***Mr. Cynical 5/3/05
So go ahead and spin away my friend!
Alan/Don–
You know you’ve had too much to drink when your cat eats your puke and gets hammered!
Why mr cinical. is that what your cat routinely does, or did you finally send your cat to the ‘honorable’ Dr. Frist?
After watching yesterday’s Seattle noon TV news, I thought that Rossi had come out on top. Silly me!
In other local news…
Sacramento Kings win key issue in Game 4, keep playoff hopes alive.
In a stunning development over the weekend, the Kings kept their playoff hopes alive when the Sonics once again failed to eliminate them by winning the game 115-100.
While basketball experts feel that we should focus on the outcome of the entire series, the Kings clearly feel confident that they will prevail and have filed suit with the NBA to overturn the results of games 1, 2, and 4 based on ‘statistical anomalies.’
‘We know we won.’ said Kings’ coach Dino Rossi. ‘Look, after we counted the first two quarters we clearly had the lead and we only lost through massive basket stuffing in the third and fourth quarters.’ Rossi proposes that instead of going through the normal procedure of counting baskets, we instead subtract points from the Sonics total score by a ratio of quarters in which they scored more points.
Officials for the Sonics objected that such an approach was unfair and showed that the Kings were simply trying to win the series with the NBA since they could not prevail on the court. While the Sonics did concede that some of the games had been extraordinarily close, they insisted that actually counting the baskets still remained the best method of deciding a basketball game.
This notion was dismissed by Kings General Manager Chris Vance who has criticized the Sonics in the past for having tall players and holding their games in the Sonic stronghold of Seattle. “The fact that the Sonics could come back from a 21 point deficit is absolute proof that the game was fixed!†Vance proclaimed. He referred any skeptical observers to the spreadsheets of a local Kings’ fan which analyzed the score sheet of an 87 year-old Sacramento women which showed the Kings losing only 115-101 as proof.
Vance said that Sunday was a “Great victory for us. Not only were we not eliminated from the playoffs, we have every confidence that we will prevail on our motion to prohibit Ray Allen from making any more crazy jump shots.†A ruling on the series is expected Tuesday night.
…parties must show that ineligible ex-felons “…actually voted for a gubernatorial candidate.”
How can this requirement be met? Will Republicans and Democrats alike be required to get ex-felons who illegally voted to admit that they voted for a candidate in an affidavit? This seems only trivially less difficult then asking them who they voted for.
If this requirement is really in place, Judge Bridges is playing hardball with the Republicans. Interestingly, there is no statistical reason for this requirement, since a proportional adjustment can be done that includes all of the undervotes as well as votes for candidates.
and on another ‘ruling’ by ‘activist/earringed’ Judge Bridges after the hearing, TVW will televise all proceedings from the courtroom from now on.
Damn, I really shouldn’t have gotten so wrapped up in my kid’s Gran Turismo 4 game last night. I got my B license, but it was 130a when I finished. And now I’m behind the curve on my WA Gov reporting! Nice job, Goldy. I did read some of the late accounts, and once they got fleshed out from the morning versions it was clear that Rossi got one weak lifeline and that’s about it.
Ha! Ha! Ha! Bridges is a hippie!! Ha! Ha! Ha!
Ha! Ha! Ha! RINO! Impeach it! Ha! Ha! Ha!
He puts the precious out of reach! We hates it forever!
Ha! Ha! Ha!
wingo @ 10
It puts the election back in the basket, or it gets the hose!
brenda @ 5
Don’t believe everything you hear from the “liberal” media!
Which is more significant, the earring in Judge Bridges’ ear, or the ring in Mr. Cynical’s nose?
Hey Cyn, you seem to know a lot about those felon votes — R U sure U don’t work for BIAW???
But ya gotta admire Cynnie’s unquenchable optimism as he stands on the tracks in front of the approaching train …
Alan @ 14
I quote the song Blood on the Coal from A Mighty Wind:
An Irishman named Murphy said “I’ll stop that iron horse!”
And he stood to thwart its passage,
And it crushed him dead of course.
My Marummy got the issue right, but I think our odds are two out of five we’ll win.
Maybe though, Judge Bridges will lighten up on his six standards – especially the last one. Or he just wants to see what we can dig up…
Being a Rossi Supporter, I am sad to say that I agree with you on this.
This is court case is going nowhere.
I don’t agree with the election results and am frustrated this whole experience.
However, contrary to all of the assertions made by the Republican Party in this state. The fact remains that time and time again, the complaints of the reublicans are proven to be baseless.
In addition, Judge Bridges laid out six standards for proving an illegal felon vote: the voter was convicted of a felony, as an adult, was not given a deferred sentence, has not had his voting rights restored, had cast a ballot in the November election, and… actually voted for a gubernatorial candidate.
That is a vry tough list. Especially the last element. Perhaps 5 to 10 percent of voters did not vote for the governor’s race.
I do not know how Rossi is going to be able to show that felons actually cast a vote in the governor’s race vs. just voted generally.
Um, aren’t these just pre-trial hearings? The trial hasn’t even started yet and you are already declairing the defence the winner? RIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGHT. The judge has just said what argument’s he’ll consider listening to, not who has won.
Don/Alan@14
Tj@15–
Maybe you boys are right…and maybe you boys are wrong.
A number of folks have seen and helped investigate the illegal felon voters besides BIAW. You boys are so paranoid…it’s humerous.
I do know that a huge # of the R’s felon’s have already been processed and removed from voter lists after thorough investigation and due process. Those are “slam-dunks” to include in the statistical formula (whatever that may be). There are others in process now.
It’s the Dems who have a serious problemo.
They need to proceed with their list….and all I can tell you is that their are more than a few that are 100% WRONG!
You would think that after all Berendts pissing & moaning about the R’s failures to be 100% correct, that they would be extremely diligent themselves. WRONGO!
One County Auditor said the very first one from the Dems list that she tried to validate, she was able to confirm in 2 minutes that her voting rights were restored!!!
I’ll grant you that where Judge Bridges is going with this is an expected high standard…as it should be. But in other ways, it’s as clear as mud.
prr @ 17
wow, what a turnabout of rationality! Kudos.
Honestly, I totally understand your frustration with the election. What we’ve been saying is still true–as elections go, Washington’s was actually better than most, and the law does favor finality over certainty.
But that doesn’t mean it’s not legitimate to want more surety and oversight in our elections. They’re extremely important–obviously one of THE most important functions of government–and yet many elements of an election are left to low-level county functionaries at best, elderly volunteers at worst. Many functions are undertaken by partisan political officeholders, which raises concerns about conflict of interest.
I agree with you, that if we really want to trust our elections, these are not acceptable procedures or outcomes. The problem is that by our words and deeds to our elected officials, we the public have not emphasized our interest in doing what it takes to have airtight elections. The bottom line on “what it takes” is MONEY. The statewide registration database COULD have been online and working for the 2004 election cycle, but for lack of funding. That’s just one example.
Shorter Torrid: if we don’t like the rules we’re using, let’s change the rules. But: let’s not feign ignorance about the time, effort and expenditure involved; and until then we have to play by the rules we have at the moment.
jpgee@8–
Apparently you & I can finally agree on something!
I am also gleeful that this trial will be televised on TVW.
I cannot wait to see Logan and Huennekens questioned about their actions and their depositions. That will be the real show.
The Election Contest is one issue.
KingCo Elections conduct is another.
No reasonable person will buy that:
“This election is a model for the rest of the Nation and the world at large.”
—Christine Gregoire
The Dems have dug themselves a huge hole defending KingCo Elections. That issue will NEVER go away. How does that Gregoire statement and the Dems over-exuberance defending Logan and KingCo Elections help gain more Democrat voters in Washington????
Answer: It doesn’t.
Does it hurt the Dems?
Answer: Yes
Cynical @ 20
nothing’s “in the bank” unless the GOP establishes the 6 tests for EACH NAME. That they’re off the voter rolls or under prosecution is a common sense validation of their illegality–but not a one of them will count unless Rossi meets the 6 tests.
cynical @ 22
apparently you missed the memo that “the election was a mess” is dead in the water as a contest issue. Ooops.
Tj @ 20–
So exactly who’s fault is it KingCo Elections was underfunded?
Logan made a clear statement that he could not do everything he was required to do statutorally due to a lack of funding.
Then the very next day, Logan praised Sims and the Council saying they had offered Logan whatever he needed. It wasn’t Sims or the Council’s fault.
Logan was speaking about this election TJ.
So which was it.
Funded or underfunded????
Then you have to go back and look at Logan’s Budget requests the last 2 years and all the correspondence related to that.
It appears KingCo and Sims simply DID NOT prioritize elections and made budget CHOICES to spend money in other places.
TJ–it’s easy for you to cry for more funding.
It’s not easy for you to be held accountable for what happened up to this point. Had Sims and the Council been really serious about the reforms & changes promised after the election fiasco a few years ago, they would have funded it.
They are caught with their pants down.
There only out is to blame Logan or better yet say it was miscommunication.
how exactly was KC going to fund a statewide integrated registration database?
tj@23–
Judge Bridges never said he would absolutely require all 6. If you are banking on #6 (proving they voted in the Governor’s race) to be the spoiler, good luck. I believe any proportional analysis will have to include proportional undervotes…just like proportional Libertarians and write-ins.
Another point is that when these felons were removed, KingCo went thru an exhaustive process and did not remove them unless they were convinced they were illegally registered. You can say the R’s still have to provide the Judge the appropriate documentation. But most of what Judge Bridge said he would like to have is readily available…and then some! It’s all there.
You may want to focus your energies on making sure your Dems have their ducks in order Tj….cuz it doesn’t appear that they do. When are you going to start challeging your 432 felons, hmmmmm?
tj@26
That’s a good point.
However get serious…that wasn’t the only issue that lead to negligence was it. There were plenty of additional internal controls and things in the control of KingCo. Why didn’t they do them?
1) Poor leadership
2) Untrained personnel
3) Lack of funding
4) All of the above
ANSWER:
4
It’s very simple.
Goldass (or as I shall refer to him, Pyriteass, because he’s nothing more than a fake and a sycophant) has it wrong because he didn’t look at the rulings quite the way a normal observer did.
The Dems have more work to do, they have to do a lot of spin control and searching for the illegal votes. The Repubs already HAVE one complete list and are working on more.
Also, The Repubs have been doing the work and doing what Judge Bridges has asked. They got the deposition from Dean Logan and Bill Huennekens, which clearly shows malfeasance on their parts. That’s pretty damning evidence, friends.
Basically stating, The Dems are gonna need a miracle in order to come out on top of this thing. And they just don’t have that much faith to do it, even with “Fraud” Kerry helping them out.
cynical @ 27
Bridges effectively granted the Dem motion for the standards on accepting illegal votes. Without showing the vote was cast for governor, the vote is useless to the election contest. Proportional analysis has nothing to do with establishing a count of illegal votes; it deals with ALLOCATING them once they’re determined. And there’s not any indication proportional analysis will be allowed in the first place.
I can say the R’s (and D’s) still have to provide the judge the documentation, because it’s what HE said. For each alleged illegal vote, there will absolutely need to be either a signature in the poll book, or a signed absentee ballot envelope. Without them, they will not count. Whether they were removed from the rolls is entirely irrelevant.
cyn @ 28
what’s your basis for claiming poor leadership and untrained personnel? Who wasn’t trained? WA actually has one of the most extensive training programs in the country.
Andrew @ 29
please specify what acts of malfeasance you are referring to. If there had been some revealed in the deposition, why didn’t Rossi make anything of them when the transcripts were released?
As for Rossi’s chances: his own lawyers admit that without proportional allocation, they are dead in the water. And proportional allocation is by no means a sure bet to be allowed in the contest. So I see a case the GOP is admitting is over if they lose the Frye hearing. No miracles needed.
tj@31–
Then how do you explain KingCo finding additional ballots 13 times?
How do you explain the problem with the signature database?
The list goes on and on–
Are you saying there were no preventable problems tj??
Josef @ 16
Ah yes — Zits — another eternal optimist! Either that photo is very grainy or her facial skin is falling off …
Which reminds me of the worst thing I saw in Vietnam. I was at a hospital when they brought in a burned Marine. He was on a litter, and was fully conscious and talking to the medics. He had no skin … it hung off his body in strips that looked like punctured balloons … the last thing I heard him say before they took him to triage or wherever hopeless cases go was, “Tell my wife I love her!” I’ll never forget it.
Now ask me what I think of war … and of politicians who lead us into unnecessary, useless, or futile wars … and of stupid people who mindlessly support such politicians and have the gall to question the patriotism of people like me who have SEEN war and know exactly what war is …
FUCK ‘EM … fuck ’em all … they should all burn in Hell …
Cynical @ 33
I’m not TRYING to explain them. You are, and you’re citing as the reasons poor leadership and untrained personnel. Where are your facts supporting that theory?
C @ 20
Son, don’t call me “boy.” I’m not your ______ .
Comment by Mr. Cynical— 5/3/05 @ 11:33 am – I can’t believe what I’m saying, but I concur.
Comment by Alan— 5/3/05 @ 12:34 pm – Yes, it is grainy because it’s a screen-cap from streaming KING 5.
Oh and Alan, Marummy is scowing at you!
Wishful Thinker @ 29
I can tell right off the bat you’re not a lawyer and don’t know much about how judges operate. Speculate away, “friend.” Your opinion doesn’t count for beans. Neither does Mr. C’s. Or, for that matter, mine. At the end of the day, the only opinion that matters is the judge’s. It’s fun to watch amateurs try to read the judge’s mind.
To me, a lawyer, this whole thing is very simple and predictable. Judge Bridges is letting the plaintiffs put on their case. No surprise there — judges who don’t let plaintiffs present evidence and argument are summarily reversed on appeal. In complex cases, it’s standard procedure to hold one or more pretrial hearings to guide procedure for the trial in order to save everybody’s time. What it all boils down to is that Judge Bridges is being careful to not prejudge the case, build a solid record, and adhere to the substantive law. In other words, he’s a competent journeyman trial judge doing a workmanlike job. To try to extrapolate his ultimate verdict from this is folly.
Josef @ 38
Thank God she’s still got her skin!
Josef @ 39
I don’t want her love — I’m already taken. You can have her! I wish you two a long life and much happiness together, and may all your candidates lose … :D
Comment by Alan— 5/3/05 @ 1:04 pm
Thanks, bud but we’re dueling for US Senate next year. I’m already Blogging 4 Cantwell.
Besides, when Dino Rossi’s Gov’r, you can have your mate sleep well. Marummy’ll guard your vote!
Comment by Alan— 5/3/05 @ 1:04 pm
Thanks, bud but we’re dueling for US Senate next year. I’m already Blogging 4 Cantwell.
Besides, when Dino Rossi’s Gov’r, you can have your mate sleep well. Marummy’ll guard your vote!
Alan @ 35,
Nevermind logic. For you, the sight of one horribly burned man was enough justification to condemn all war. Argumentation doesn’t get any more fallacious than that, and basing an argument on your spur of the moment emotion vs. the entirety of the state of the world in the late 60s and early 70s is exactly why millions of Viatnamese were condemned to the hell of North Vietnamese communism.
Fortunately today’s US soldiers have a much better ability to put what their doing into a larger perspective.
Here’s a report from someone who knows far more than you, and has a much better ability to put Vietnam in perspective than you:
http://www.latimes.com/news/op.....5488.story
Jeff B. – Jeff B. – Chickenhawk alert!!!
How anti-totalitarian and staunchly anti-statist – so much so that most of what he buys is manufactured in libertarian paradises like China and yep, Vietnam.
FYI for those who care: my Chelan recap is up now, at
http://alsoalso.typepad.com/al.....seatt.html
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