And so it goes. Washington state Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) has re-taken the lead from Dino Rossi (“G.O.P. Party”), 50% to 48%, in the latest poll by SurveyUSA. The poll of 682 likely voters was taken from 21-Sep to 22-Sep and has a margin of error of 3.8%.
So, let’s recap the September poling. A week ago, a Strategic Vision poll gave Rossi a 48% to 46% lead. Before that, a Rasmussen poll had Rossi up by a remarkable 52% to 46%. Then in early September we had an Elway poll that gave Gregoire a 49.1% to 42.4% lead and a SurveyUSA poll that had Rossi up 48% to 47%. So what is going on?
Because I’ve been systematically collecting and analyzing state head-to-head polls for every gubernatorial, senatorial and presidential race with an OCD-like fervor this election season, I’ve noticed a very strong pattern. In numerous states, for all three race types, I see examples of a Republican bump in the polls during the first half of September, only to see it fall again in the second half of September.
Call it a “Palin surge,” if you will. I call this transient phenomenon: “The Republican Awakening.” And it has largely diffused over the last week in races all over the country.
We see it here in the Washington state gubernatorial race. That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it—at least until a more compelling hypothesis that better explains the data pops up. Back to the objective analysis.
Gregoire’s lead is, clearly, within the margin of error. We can empirically determine the probability that either Rossi or Gregoire would win an election held now using a Monte Carlo analysis.
A million simulated elections of 682 voters gives Gregoire 636,814 wins, and Rossi 353,324 wins. If an election had been held today, we would expect Gregoire to win with a 64.3% probability and Rossi to win with a 35.7% probability.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes resulting from the simulation.
The same SurveyUSA poll finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain 54% to 43%. The +11% lead is even wider than a week-older ARG poll that had Obama up 50% to 44%. And compare that to the two mid-month polls: a Strategic Vision poll and a Rasmussen poll that each gave Obama a smallish single-digit lead (+5% and +2% respectively).
See how the “Republican Awakening” thing has melted away?
“republican awakening”…an interesting thesis. too bad the republicans have not acted like their arab counterparts and annihilated the taliban types infesting their party….and they still want $700b.
gop=the free lunch party: give us stuff for free, and if we feel like it, we’ll buy you lunch.
Hopefully this means that imaginary and dead people in King County will have a much smaller role in this election cycle.
Does it factor in thrown away ballots from Republican areas, or newly created … I mean newly “found” ballots?
The GOPP (BIAW) is going to have to run more attack ads.
The ballots don’t go out for about 3 weeks.
I have always felt this will be another 1 point margin election.
I believe there are a large group of fiscal conservative Democrats who still just aren’t sure of what to make of the $3.2 DEFICIT in the upcoming biennium and what Gregoire will actually do to balance the Budget.
If Gregoire isn’t forthcoming with specific plans to cut expenses, voters will conclude she will raise taxes (her comment that “now is not the time to discuss tax increases” has opened many eyes because it clearly doesn’t say she won’t raise taxes like Rossi has stated).
If Rossi can make the case Gregoire will not cut expenses and will raise taxes…he will get the Conservative Democrat vote and win.
If Gregoire can continue to deflect the discussion away from the Budget to sideshows like stem cell research, she may hold on.
It really comes down to economics…taxes & spending.
YLB–
I don’t see “attack ads” as the monikor for holding Gregoire accountable for $8 BILLION of increased spending.
They are called factual “accountability ads”.
I’m sure there will be plenty of those.
Innacurate, personal attack ads like Gregoire’s on stem cell research may rile up her KLOWN base, KLOWNS like you, but they they really turn off that moderate, fiscal conservative sector….especially when the Seattle Times busts Gregoire for lying.
@5
I don’t think the election turns on the issues. I think it turns on Democrats who work for King County Elections.
Troll, are you getting upset because you think King county may act like Republicans when it comes to counting votes?
@8 Is that how you justify throwing out Republican ballots, and manufacturing fake pro-Democrat ballots? By telling yourself other people do it?
From Rasmussen:
Thursday, September 18, 2008
New state polling from Indiana has moved that state from from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. With this change, Obama now leads in states with 193 Electoral College votes while McCain is ahead in states with 189 Electoral College votes. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 259, McCain 247.
Currently, states with 124 Electoral College votes are leaning slightly in one way or the other. Four states with a total of 32 votes — Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia — are pure toss-ups.
This race is very, very interesting.
O-blah-blah is leading by a point or so in National Polls…part of the lead is increasing margins in States like California & NY…that he already controls.
However, it is the Electoral College that decides the election. And of the 32 toss-up delgates in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada & Virginia…McCain holds a slight edge in all 4.
I think Virginia will decide this election.
This is a tossup.
If Rossi loses, he needs .. and the entire GOP needs .. to look at its radical right.
I have no ioea how many voters are in my camp, but speaking as someone who is not impressed by Gregopire and voted for Rossi before, I see Guzzo, the Clark Co affair, and Palin as parts of a huge albatross. Not only is this bird tied around Rossi’s neck, I have come to beleive he himself is part of the albatross.
To quote a Republican I once supported, “Dear friends….” we live in a two party system. Since Jefferson’s time, the US has had only two parties and that is not likley to change.
When one of those parties adopts extremism as its center, that party becomes a danger to us all and must die.
The sad thing about this is that there needs to be a second political party that supports a distinct but rational POV. The radical republicans, however, have driven rational conservatives out. Bill Clinton, Robert Rubin, James Web, Scoop Jackson, .. all of these more closely resemble Eisenhower, Nixon, TR, Hagel,
McCainand Dan Evans than they do the liberal tradition of King and Kennedy.What really scares SJ is that the GOP seems to be committing suicide and perhaps taking us all along with it.
So, in the spirit of the now sainted John McCain of yore, I write “Dear Friends…” I am an independent, I want to see balance and will vote Republican if you offer me choice.
I do not think I am alone in this.
Cynical, you’re living in the distant past. Those are “Republican awakening” numbers in CO, NV, NM, and VA. The latest Colorado polls show a 7% lead for Obama, and New Mexico is in double figures. Nevada and Virginia are still close, but the trend is good for the good guys.
Typical Republican … pretending last week is this week.
10. Mr. Cynical
For once we agree. Obama will take Virginia.
N in–
You are obviously quoting PPP which is a Democratic funded polling scam:
http://www.publicpolicypolling....._92365.pdf
I prefer to use #’s from a tried and true independent firm like Rasmussen.
sj–
Did I say O-blah-blah will take Virginia??
Frankly, I’m not sure one way or the other.
Glad you are such a confident prognosticator sj. Not sure what you base your prognostication on…other than some sort of New Age vision or something of that sort.
Perhaps you should refer to yourself as:
Madame Seattle Jew—see-er of the future based on nothing but wishful thinking!
sj–
You seem to be mighty hard on Christians and any religous people sj.
Everyone worships something sj—
You seem to worship your own intellect!!
Me, I prefer Jesus Christ.
Let me get back to you as I reconsider the life & message of Christ in contrast to the musings of Madame Seattle Jew.
Ok, I’ve thought about it sj…
You come in a distant 2nd place.
Hey Goldy–
This was posted @ Politics Northwest:
“On the other hand Sandeep Kaushik, Darcy’s campaign manager, is quoted as saying “Liberal Values are drinking and F%$&ing” while tipping a few back on a podcast with Goldy and Dwight Pelz. He is just the kind of class guy you would expect to find hypocrisy in others, but never himself or his candidate. Ron Sims trained him well.”
Is this true??
I’m too lazy & disgusted to listen to the tape myself.
Goldy–Did this actually happen?
Troll-
Are you kidding me about ‘found’ ballots. If you were running for office wouldn’t you want a fair and just election? The only reason Gregorie is in office is because the dead and felons voted for her! That is complete bullshit! She should not have won the first time, and she certainly shouldn’t win this time! She is a fraud and has been using her power to target people who try to make the election fair!
Part of your problem is that the Elway poll is utter nonsense. I wouldn’t even include it. How can you trust a poll that gives all of Eastern WA to Gregoire? Even Gregoire knows that’s bunk.
Actually, I don’t think democrats in general cheat like that. I think we try to be better than that. I do that that republicans would do that, so they imagine that everyone else is doing it.
People with ethics don’t believe by winning by any means, and so if Rossi gets more votes, by running a more effective campaign, he will win.
I think Republicans, who have become acclimated to corruption, will do everything they can, in terms of voter suppression and voter fraud to win where ever they can, by any means available.
As a Bible-reading Christian, I reckon I missed the part where Jesus said to go forth and lie on blogs in rabid support of a political party.
Geez, 52% Obama-Biden to 43% Palin-McCain in the latest WaPo-ABC News poll. Obama trending up, Palin trending down. It looks like America is making up its mind. Friday’s debate should seal the deal.
What’s a Democrat?
A Republican mugged by Wall Street.
Are there really people that voted for Gregoire last time and will be voting for Rossi this time?
@22
McCain/NOBAMA ABC poll.
You poll 28% (GOP) and 48% (d)
guess what you get HA poll
It’s scary, Rossi is throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the governor.
11% more (d) then (GOP) polled.
Maybe Rossi will follow McCain’s lead and halt his campaign.
Republicans woke up – to the nightmare of unnecessary wars and a ruined economy thanks to Bush – and promptly went back to sleep or became democrats.
@22: the debate should seal the deal – but McLame is running scared and to timid to actually debate.
Palin is too scared to met the media and they had to negotiate for a Palin debate where biden could not actually ask her questions – apparently she is too fragile.
Yup, republicans are too chicken to actually debate and ask questions – wonder why?
Palin is too scared to met the media
Evidence proves you wrong, since she does meet the media. QED.
and they had to negotiate for a Palin debate where biden could not actually ask her questions
Oh please, know what you are talking about. That is how almost all (if not all) CPD debates are run. The CPD has run Presidential debates since 1988, and that year none of the debates had direct candidate-to-candidate questions (it was part of the memorandum of understanding). Same thing in 2004, where participants in all four debates were told “The candidates may not ask each other direct questions, but may ask rhetorical questions.” Same thing in 1996.
Those are the only memoranda of understanding I looked at, and all of them forbade direct questioning between participants.
This is how the CPD debates go. Don’t like it? Fine. But to blame the McCain/Palin campaign in particular when this is how it’s been done for 20 years, by all the campaigns on both sides, is stupid.
24. RobertSeattle spews:
“Are there really people that voted for Gregoire last time and will be voting for Rossi this time.”
YUP! Many Democrat small-business people who foolishly trusted Gregoire last time.
Virtually every small business association supports Rossi this time.
Gregoire==Government Bureaucrats Friend
Rossi==Small Business Friend