Within seconds of the polls closing, all the networks and news organizations immediately called the Virginia Democratic primary for Barack Obama, while putative Republican nominee John McCain is projected to be in a neck in neck battle with Mike Huckabee. (According to exit polls, 40% of VA primary voters self-identify as Christian evangelicals. Guess who they’re voting for?)
Obama leads Clinton 62% to 37% with 33% of precincts reporting. It’s 47% to 45% for the other guys.
UPDATE [5:45]:
CNN has called VA for McCain. With 61% reporting, same margins as above.
Once again, the networks stumbled all over themselves calling DC for Obama within seconds of the polls closing… yet so far, no results. (Hmm. Maybe Boss Esser is doing the counting?)
UPDATE [6:20]:
Obama now leads Clinton in VA, 64-35, with 80% of precincts reporting. Still no actual results out of DC, while Maryland polls have been kept open 90 minutes late due to bad vicious weather. I’m headed to DL.
UPDATE [6:33] — Darryl:
NBC News has called DC, MD, & VA for Obama and MD and VA for McCain.
UPDATE [6:55] — Darryl:
McCain takes DC as well. Man…for a “maverick” McCain sure seems entrenched in the Beltway!
UPDATE [7:05] — Goldy:
In the biggest surprise of the night, the Chicago Bulls are leading the New Orleans Hornets 55 to 54, yet Luke Esser has already called the game for McCain with 6:35 to play in the third quarter.
UPDATE [7:40] — Goldy:
The key to influencing Congress is for netroots progressives to seize control of safe Democratic districts. That’s why it is so exciting to see Donna Edwards leading Rep. Al Wynn in the Democratic primary in MD-04. It’s still early — 55-42 with 11% reporting — but it looks awfully damn encouraging.
UPDATE [8:20] — Goldy:
Carl is “horribly bitter” over Clinton’s declining fortunes… as if he needs one more thing to be bitter about.
UPDATE [8:44] — Goldy:
Once again, Obama doesn’t just win, he wins big… 27 point margin in MD, 29 points in VA, 51 points in DC. Has Clinton hired Giuliani’s strategist?
McCain just called the winner in Virginia
Hillary is using the rudy guliani compaign tactics – try to put up a final stand (florida, for rudy) while continuously losing states and falling behind.
It worked so well for rudy last time around too.
Very likely the Democratic race has become defined and Obama is going to be our nominee.
Meanwhile, is it possible that Stop-McCain Republicans may coalesce behind Huckabee and give The Huck enough delegates from the remaining contests to make hime their standard bearer? Or is it mathematically impossible?
As noted, Clinton expected to do poorly in most of the states in February, save Maine (where she said long ago that she expected to lose, but it looked like her most promising state).
Having said that, last polls out of Wisconsin show Clinton in the lead with 50%-41% among democratic voters. The open primary will put republicans who like Obama ahead.
The real question is, will the Republican voters really follow through in November if Obama is the nominee? Personally, I don’t think so.
But, that wasn’t the real question – if Hillary somehow makes Wisconsin, and then picks up Texas and Ohio as expected, and possibly also Rhode Island (which is currently 8 points favoring Clinton over Barack in the Brown University poll from February 11th, 2008) does that shift ‘momentum’ back in her favor?
Or does it just go back to the same shit that each campaign has been saying for a while – Hillary said back after Super Tuesday that she most likely wouldn’t win any states in play in February, and Obama’s camp has acknowledged the huge lead that Hillary has in Ohio and Texas and the demographics that don’t play to his advantage?
Personally, I don’t buy the momentum deal, and I think if Obama keeps playing it up like he has been and does as badly in Texas and Ohio as expected, then you may see media headlines like “Obama’s momentum crashes into brick wall” or some shit like that.
A lot of Obama’s strategy I think is based on momentum, and a ‘crash’ is much more damning to his campaign than Hillary’s, as shown in her STILL strong candidacy in these two states in particular.
errr, to clarify, “The open primary will put republicans who like Obama ahead.” should say “The open primary will allow republicans who like Obama to put him ahead and win Wisconsin.”
Clinton deputy campaign manager departs
EL PASO, Texas – Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s deputy campaign manager resigned Tuesday, the latest departure in a staff shake-up following a string of losses to Barack Obama.
By BETH FOUHY and JIM KUHNHENN, Associated Press Writers
http://tinyurl.com/353n9g
Yes, dustin, it is all going according to plan.
er… ahem.. Goldy, please put down the beer and clear my last message for posting.
Thanks
@5: A long post, for a long losing streak. A fired campaign manager and lack of funds means that clinton is regaining momentum after losing – what now – 7 elections in a row (and how many non-caucuses now?).
Let me predict the Clinton spins:
It was the high numbers of African Americans
It was the high numbers of men
It was the high numbers of affluent voters
It was the high numbers of independent voters
It was the caucuses
It was the primaries
We didn’t put much into those states
We are saving it for the big states
Only california and New York really count
Wait until 2012
Really -if we get all the superdelegates and sweep the rest of the states – we’ll have it locked up
It is inevitable because it is inevitable because….
I’m glad to see you guys are purging your party of the worst of the stalinists.
Obviously we have some cleansing to do too. You’re showing us how.
BHO is an empty skirt who will be easy to beat.
Thanks.
@ 7 thanks Goldy
Blatantly Obvious @ 8,
Goldy’s drinking ice water at the moment. But I put down my beer and cleared your comment.
Mark the Redneck,
Hey, punk, go fuck yourself and then make good on your $100 bet with Goldy.
@ 10 “BHO is an empty skirt who will be easy to beat.”
With what? An empty mind?
@ 12 thanks Darryl!
BO – What does BHO actually want to do?
he says everybody is “entitled” to a good wage? Really? Is he gonna raise min wage to 25 bucks an hour?
he says everybody is “entitled” to health care? Really? Who the fuck is gonna pay for it?
He’s about “hope” Really? Hoping we can be like france? Who the fuck wants that.
Nah… when it comes right down to it, McCain will win easily. Neither will get my vote, but BHO is a complete empty skirt with even less track record than The Smartest Woman In The World.
Hey Darryl – Ask goldy if he wants me to put 100 bucks into his daughter’s lunch account at school so she can at least get one decent meal per day. To bad her father is an unemployed fucking loser.
Also, ask him when he’s gonna post the “wonk” segment from his last show. That was fucking hilarious.
@10 Mark the redneck:
We’ll see you in November – McCain can’t even rally his own party. If his meds aren’t right, they will have to wake him up after the debate is over.
No – thanks to republican ineptness and corruption – November will be a cakewalk for all Democrats.
Say hello to 8 years of Democratic presidency and democratic control of congress. Republicans like Mark will be a small demoralized minority and most of the Bush gang will be behind bars – where they belong.
Only the weak, the corrupt and the inept will bother to call themselves republicans.
@16: Poor Mark – Illegal aliens could probably do your job better than you . Not to mention they could also speak and write better english.
Must scare the pants off of you – that is if you actually wear pants. Usually these mental midgets are also physically midgets also.
Mark the Retard Redneck’s commentary is like reading a diary of man who has just lost his last paycheck on pull tabs at the local tavern. His alimony payments are way past due, he owes all his “friends” money for his last lost meth weekend, and he is sitting on a curb in Auburn.
He places the gun in his mouth and blames all his troubles on “The French and the welfare queens!”
Bang.
The rest of the world goes on.
Anybody but Hillary. That bitch would have fucking slaves
if it were still legal AND she wouldn’t even treat them
nice.
@ 21 Thanks for the comment, Mark.
BTW, you wouldn’t happen to have any citations to buttress your insane opinion would you?
Or was that just a “I am am wingnut making a completely unfounded bat shit crazy post in hopes it will insite some kinda wedge in those damnedly united and composed Democrats” post?
It’s (not startling) but somewhat amazing how the wingnuts think they can make race a wedge issue in the Democratic vote.
Again, I am for Obama as our candidate, but if Clinton gets the nod I will whole heartedly support and campaign for her. She is a great candidate, with a great platform, and light years better than anything the Repugs are offering.
Get over it, wingnuts.
You don;t have a chance in hell of winning the 2008 election for President, and you will be nothing but a small minority in the House and Senate come 2009.
You “reign of terror” is over.
@5 The dynamics are not in Hillary’s favor. She’s just replaced her top 2 campaign staffers; she’s just loaned $5 million of her own money to her campaign; she’s raising only half as much money as Obama; and she’s now behind in the delegate count. Doesn’t exactly look like a thriving enterprise.
@6 I thought the courts eliminated all the open primaries. The U.S. Supreme Court has declared open primaries unconstitutional; so, how can Wisconsin conduct an open primary?
@10 Pay your gambling debt, you congealed conglutination of putrid pigeon poo!
@16 Are you a relative of mine? Do my family a favor and get yourself run over by a car. Pay your gambling debt, welsher!
@23 “It’s (not startling) but somewhat amazing how the wingnuts think they can make race a wedge issue in the Democratic vote.”
Now that we’re getting closer to the election they’re putting on their bedsheets but we’ve known all along who they are.
@ 26 conglutination
transitive verb : to unite by or as if by a glutinous substance
That rocks RR! I am gonna use that tomorrow on a certain coworker.
For Mark the Retard Redneck, a “coworker” is a person who is doing work with you. You wouldn’t know about that. You just have a world filled with “The French” and “Welfare Queens” who get the lucky pull tab before you do.
Every night, I come here so Dusty can tell me how Clinton is winning.
Dustin James, HA’s own Baghdad Bob.
I still think Hillary is going to win it. Don’t know how. Think it has something to do with the super-delegates. The party officials won’t let Obama win.
@ 31 see @ 23
Goldy, regarding that last update, one of Rudy’s campaign managers just praised Clinton’s strategy:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/178290.php
A troll is a troll, and a troll does what a troll does.
And a troll fools no one.
That is why trolls end up in Fremont clutching a VW bug under the Aurora Bridge.
A wingnut getting his picture taken by tourists and shit on by transients.
That was almost a haiku.
But wait….Dean Logan is continuing the sort of tradition down in L.A. that he began up here! See L.A. Times for the latest……
@ 34,
At least it wasn’t a limerick, or we’d seriously have to consider whether or not the Piper has changed his handle.
@ 36 I am glad I escaped that ignominious characterization.
Does anyone else here agree with me that no matter how well Obama does, HIllary is still going to be the nominee no matter what?
@ 38 no.
“no matter how well Obama does, Hillary is still going to be the nominee no matter what”
That is a nonsensical question. If “no matter what” were to happen, then a troll would be taken seriously.
That is against all laws of logic.
Please do the world a wonderful favor and die.
Your “I will drive a wedge in the Democrats” illogic is not viable.
You are useless.
@39,
We’ll see. Oh, and by the way, I am one to gloat, so when I’m proven right, I am going to come back here and smugly and proudly remind everyone of my prediction.
And my prediction once again, The super-delegates are going to put Hillary over the top, even though “the people” want Obama. It will be Clinton vs McCain in Nov. McCain will win.
OK, “troll” see you then.
What you do not realize is that if your masturbatory troll dreams come true… The outcome will still be a Democratic President and a super majority of Democrats in the Congress.
You will have the last laugh then, won’t you?
No, you won’t.
You lose either way.
Good.
Troll is a dumbass
Makes a claim that he cannot
Win, good riddance fool
Haiku
Sorry…
limerick!
There once was a troll on horsesass dot org
Who tried his ignorance to engorge
He tried to put a wedge
In a solid democratic hedge
and found his whines were ignored
@25, well it still takes a local challenge (lawsuit)
I am getting the feeling that Democrats have made up their minds who they want as candidate. I am glad, becase I don’t want to sit through 2008 waiting for Hillary to eke out a 49.6% to 49.5% win over McCain.
I haven’t seen any recent numbers for Texas, but Survey USA has them Clinton 56% – Obama 39% in Ohio. For some context, Obama has gained 20 points there since December, Hillary’s lead over him has been shaved from nearly 30 points to 17 points in that time, and 49% of Hillary’s supporters say they may change their minds about who to vote for.
Ohio and Texas cannot be “as expected” for Hillary. She’s going to have to fight. Every place Obama goes, his numbers go up.
Another note: Survey USA in WA state shows Hillary running 49-49% against McCain, and Obama beating him 55%-
41%39%http://www.surveyusa.com/clien.....38;q=45622
I sure hope Hillary loses in Texas and Ohio. The sooner she’s put out to pasture, the better! I can live with Obama, but I can’t stand Her Highness!
Landslide, bitches.
@16 Mark The Redneck-Rabbit says:
A Parody of a Set of Questions Posed by Mark
What does the Right actually want to do?
They says everybody is “entitled” to keep all the money they have earned? Really? d How long can the gap between the rich and the poor expand? There was a system once that did achieve this, it was called serfdom.
They says only the better off are everybody to health care? Really? Given the central role health care (and education) play in our baility to ocmpete this means only the ealthy can compete?
Obama is about “hope” Really? Hoping we can be like france? Who the fuck wants that. Hmmmm….. errrrr …. ahhhh … that is a hard one!
Nah… when it comes right down to it, McCain will win easily. Neither will get my vote, score one for the black guy from Kansas!
but BHO is a complete empty skirt with even less track record than The Smartest Woman In The World. hmmm as in such outstanding Reproican candydates as Huckabee, Bush, Dino, …..
I happen to support Mr. McCain but not for this job. Ya know what, the prexy is not just an administrator, shge or he is a leader. Who would JMcC lean .. the Reprican party??? Lets see what major issues does the residual right have a great track record on …
immingration: build a magic curtain out of reflecting tinsel and it will froighten the immigrants away!
immigration: round up the varmints and send ’em home at an average cost of 5000 this will only ocst us about 100 bilion dollars. We can save that money by dropping the capital gains tax!
Supreme Court … Borrrk Biorrrk Borrkkk. He’s ou man. Or is it Thom-Ass? Do ya really think that JMcC is gonna nominate activist judges?
Taxes .. Thi man thinks we actually should pay our debts, a well established Residual Reprican principle.
Oh .. BTW, how much support for his Senatorial election did JMKcC get from the residuals?
******************************************************
And so as the dusk fell on the Residual Rally for Reagan,
Mel Gibson leasing the chant, the holy ghost of Reagan appeared in the shifting sands of the new Caifornia desert.
Wisps of sand seemed to coalesce around the Reagan Library, as the Residual did their annual seven circuits, chanting // “Ray-Gun, Ray-Gun,.”
Bishop Gibson ascended the pyramid steps from one side, as the Prophet Dobson ascended the stairs on the opposit side. Each carried one halof of the holy document, “Contract on America.”
02/12/2008 at 8:23 pm
on Hillary,
on Obama.
I find this stage of the campaign distressing because good people can be so disappointed. In my glee over the Obama wins last night, I thought to little of what this means to friends who are supporting Hillary. I realized belatedly that some folks were not happy last night.
Now the hard part has come. One will “win,” one will “lose.” That decision, unless there is an unforseen event, is going to be made based on utterly subjective impressions determined, in all probability, by a marketing system tat sells everything from Bob Dylan to Toyotas. Even the most dedicated political junky can only see dimly through that fog.
That same system gave us GWB The fog is why I feel so good about the folks at DL and HA. The effor to see throught the fog is admirable, but … sorry to say .. it was inevitable that we would come to a stage where gthe dicison was determined by ad buys and the talking heads of the media.
So, for now, I would bet that our next president will be a wise, young, man with little track record of success in leading anything the size and scope of the USA.
I feel good. BUT, waht about #2?
I have a romantic notion that both HRC and BHO are patriots. While the system dictates that only one can win, is it beyond reason to iamgne that they may govern as a team?
If BHO is the Presidebt, what happens to the Senate? WADR, Harry Reid’s tile may be Majority Leader, but he is far more of an administrator than a leader. Could HRC emerge as the predominant voice of the Dems? Could she join her wide knowledge and the respect many of us have for her to Obama’s
obvious talents as a leader?
Consider the implications for the USA of an Obama-HRC alliance! Together these two phenomenal people could do a LOT of good.
There are two ways this could occur. First, she could be BHO’s VEEP BUT given an assignment that would effectively make her job as President of the Senate real. There is nothing in the constitution that says a VEEP can not be an acrive memeber of her party’s caucus. The idea of a VP of Clinton’s talent working with Harry Reid is poretty exciting. Second, even w/o beng VEEP, hRC and BHO could establish a unque relationship that wold be great for the whole country.
Anyhow, aren’t we llucky to have two suh impressive people trying for this job?
I would really hope that both Hillary and Obama will keep the best interest of America and the Democratic party in mind when/if it comes down to what may be a ‘draw’.
As an Obama supporter, my hope is that his momentum carries him to a win in Texas or Ohio or both, and that would end the game there. Somehow though, I doubt it.
@50
I am with you on this. But, whatever happens, I would like to believe these ar two patriots and their allinace would serve us all well!
BTW, my guess is that Ohio will look like VA. The demographics of Ohio are really unique .. a good half of the state is a southern as Georgia while the North is more like Pennsylvania.
If the message of VA hold sup, BHO’s TV campaign is very effective in place leke Norther VA or Ohio while I think he has buit an amazing base in the AA ANS conseravative loer calss.
Is it too soon to talk about Obama Repricans?
I like Hillary – I just think Obama would be a better president, get more done and be less divisive. Hillary should be the Senate majority leader and put health care through congress.
That would be a nice way for both Obama and Hillary to spin it if Obama wins the nomination…. Hillary would lead the charge from the Senate floor, helping to get the legislation passed…maybe with a few more Demoratic Senators in 2009. :)
I don’t know how these things work, but could she be made the Senate Majority leader? Or is that based on seniority? She would be a helluva lot better than Hairy Rod!