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Archives for November 2022

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle DLBottle Election day is here! If you haven’t dropped off your ballot, yet, do it! Only then will you be permitted to join us as the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally gathers for an evening of electoral politics and drinks.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. The cold weather may entice some folks to stay in the back room of the pub as well.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Election Eve 2022

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Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
13.3% probability
86.7% probability
Mean of 48 seats
Mean of 52 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Well…a lot can happen in a month. I’ve been rather negligent in gathering polling data and doing these analyses, so here we are on Election Day Eve. I’ll post an analysis based on polls collected through about 5pm today. If there are more polls tomorrow morning, there will be a final analysis tomorrow early afternoon or so.

My last analysis, about a month ago, found Democrats “in the lead” with a 97% probability of taking the Senate (if the election had been held then, that is). Lots and lots of new polls have been published. And it seems that pollsters have been procreating new baby pollsters between election seasons.

Taken altogether, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority only 1,086 times, (and there were 12,193 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 86,721 times.

What this suggests is that Democrats have a 13.3% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 86.7% probability of controlling the Senate, based only on the last two weeks of polling data (when available…older polls are used if necessary). That is quite the shift over a month.

There is a bit of good news for Democrats. Incumbent Mark Kelly (D-AZ) has a solid lead over his opponent, Blake Masters. Likewise, Colorado, New Hampshire and Washington seem safe for the Democratic incumbents.

Things are not so good for Democrats in Georgia, where Sen Raphael Warnock (D) is, essentially, tied with Herschel Walker. Bizarre, huh? In Nevada, Sen Cortez Masto’s (D) race has turned around and Adam Laxalt (R) might well be looking for a flat in D.C. soon.

Likely Democratic pick-ups have all but vanished. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH-13) once led Republican J.D. Vance for the Ohio Senate race. But Vance has led in 7 of the 8 polls taken in the past 14 days. In Pennsylvania, the Senate race between John Fetterman (D) and Mehmet Oz (R) has tightened, and Oz now holds a very slight lead. Wisconsin? Fuggitaboudit. Sen. Ron Johnson (R) is headed back to D.C. Florida? Not even close. Sen. Marco Rubio (R) will have the privilege of six more years of the job he hates.

Are the polls underestimating chances for Democrats? Maybe. The buzz in the poll aggregation community is that right-leaning pollsters have “flooded the zone” with polls bearing right-skewed results over the past several weeks. Why would they even do that? Wouldn’t that just make them look bad after the election? Either way, tomorrow is going to be “interesting.”

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*

  • 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 13.3%, Republicans control the Senate 86.7%.
  • Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 48.5 ( 1.0)
  • Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 51.5 ( 1.0)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 48 (47, 50)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 52 (50, 53)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

  • Democratic seats w/no election: 34
  • Independent seats w/no election: two
  • Republican seats w/no election: 29
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 12
  • Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 21
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: two
  • Contested Republican seats likely to switch: none

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Democrat 44
Strong Democrat 2 46
Leans Democrat 2 2 48
Weak Democrat 0 0 0 48
Weak Republican 1 1 1 52
Leans Republican 1 1 51
Strong Republican 9 50
Safe Republican 41

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

# Sample Percent Percent Democrat Republican
State @ polls size Democrat Republican % wins % wins
AL 0 0 (0) (100)
AK 0 0 (0) (100)
AZ 16 11772 51.1 48.9 94.5 5.5
AR 1& 451 32.2 67.8 0.0 100.0
CA 0 0 (100) (0)
CO 4 3028 54.8 45.2 100.0 0.0
CT 1 773 66.2 33.8 100.0 0.0
FL 7 4408 46.2 53.8 0.0 100.0
GA 15 12247 49.9 50.1 46.3 53.7
HI 0 0 (100) (0)
ID 0 0 (0) (100)
IL 1 441 59.2 40.8 99.5 0.5
IN 1 615 43.7 56.3 1.4 98.6
IA 1 753 43.6 56.4 0.8 99.2
KS 1 868 37.6 62.4 0.0 100.0
KY 1& 588 41.5 58.5 0.1 99.9
LA 0 0 (0) (100)
MD 1& 666 62.9 37.1 100.0 0.0
MO 5 4295 44.0 56.0 0.0 100.0
NV 9 6281 48.2 51.8 2.5 97.5
NH 9 10733 50.7 49.3 84.4 15.6
NY 5 4024 60.1 39.9 100.0 0.0
NC 7 6807 47.4 52.6 0.1 99.9
ND 0 0 (0) (100)
OH 8 7425 46.9 53.1 0.0 100.0
OK 3 2024 41.6 58.4 0.0 100.0
OK 3 1984 38.8 61.2 0.0 100.0
OR 2 2171 58.2 41.8 100.0 0.0
PA 14 11479 49.8 50.2 37.0 63.0
SC 1& 546 40.7 59.3 0.1 99.9
SD 1& 1275 31.8 68.2 0.0 100.0
UT 2 1242 43.2 56.8 0.1 99.9
VT 1& 987 66.4 33.6 100.0 0.0
WA 3 2183 51.1 48.9 76.1 23.9
WI 8 6410 48.5 51.5 3.8 96.2

@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

Monday Open Thread

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Vote you jerks. Get your ballot postmarked or dropped off by tomorrow (Tuesday). Please vote for the Democrat in all the races against Republicans. And there are good resources statewide if you’re still unsure. You can also probably still volunteer with your favorite candidate. Tell your friends to vote. It’s crunch time. Let’s do this.

And hey, wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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John Oliver: Bail reform

Lewis Black Rantcast: New York vs Seattle

SNL Weekend Update: Elon Musk buys Twitter & companies cut ties with Kanye West

Electile Dysfunction:

LegalEagle: The greatest brief ever filed

Amber Ruffin: Homophobia is not a problem of the past

Roy Zimmerman and Friends: ♫ Can’t Unring That Bell ♬

The Dotard and All His Accomplices and Enablers:

WaPo: When an abortion was $250 in a New York City apartment

Tooning out the News: Big News addresses the Pelosi attack

Amber Ruffin: WAIT! Is Barack Obama a sex symbol?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Friday Open Thread

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If you haven’t voted yet, you should plan to do it this weekend. Dropboxes are convenient and you can get them in the mail this weekend, you can forget about them. I mentioned it during the primary, but the new location for the Downtown Seattle dropbox is closer to Lumen Field. But wherever you go to drop off your ballot, get it finished.

And hey, wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible. Bivalent and flu are keeping people safe.

Wednesday Open Thread

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I’m no lawyer, but I like the Attorney General’s lawsuit to block Albertsons’ dividend payments ahead of their merger with Kroger. Wait until the deal is complete. Or just don’t be a monopoly?

Again, I want to stress that I have no legal training whatsoever. But the AG’s office under Ferguson has had a good track record.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle DLBottle Election season is upon us. Next Tuesday is election day, so today is a great day to fill out your ballot, drop it off in a mailbox or ballot drop box, and then swing by the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. We’ll be discussing politics of all types over drinks.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. The cold weather may entice some folks to stay in the back room of the pub as well.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

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