Archives for July 2020

Tim Eyman is a horse’s ass. But he’s also the only one of the Republicans running for governor who I had any idea about. Who else is running? Wasn’t there some guy who wasn’t going to enforce gun laws? Is he doing anything recentlOHGOD.

In a long-running lawsuit, a woman accuses police and deputies in Ferry County of failing to properly investigate when she reported a pattern of rape and molestation spanning 12 years of her childhood.

Among the defendants is Loren Culp, who is now the police chief in the town of Republic and a Republican candidate for Washington governor. The lawsuit alleges Culp and two other law enforcement officers intimidated the victim, threatened to charge her with making false claims and failed to report her allegations to child welfare authorities as required by law.

Of course a lawsuit filed isn’t the same as all of the accusations proven. But yikes.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 375 electoral votes	Mean of 163 electoral votes

My previous analysis of the Biden-Trump head-to-head polls was way back in early June, in part because the dynamics of the race didn’t seem to be changing much. Trump is slowly slipping in the polls, as the COVID-19 epidemic worsens in the U.S., as Trump resists movements for police reforms, and as we learn bizarre things like Trump not responding to Russian bounties on American soldiers in Afghanistan.

After 100,000 simulated elections, the results are not surprising. Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 375 to Trump’s 163 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

Basically, if the election was today, Biden would win in a landslide.

Trump has a serious electoral college problem. Many swing states are now trending strongly for Biden, including Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Other swing states are pretty solidly in Biden’s camp, like Arizona, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Even Ohio trends slightly toward Biden. Iowa and Texas are in toss-up territory, but leaning slightly toward Trump. Remarkable!

The trend over the past couple months are clear from from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from Jul 2019 to the present, and, at each point in time, including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

There is, of course, plenty of time to turn this trend around. Still, Trump’s bizarre and impulsive behavior will make doing that very difficult.

[Read more…]

I saw my parents for the first time since the quarantine started over the weekend. We had a socially distanced, masked walk and a picnick. It was a relatively low risk thing, but it was still nervous making. I was glad to see them, but still I don’t know.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Now This: Sen. Mark Warner on cleaning up national parks.

BuzzFeed: How Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos will make 1 million dollars during this 7 minute video.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Immorals, Incompetents, and Incontenents:

• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп was offered Bounty paper towels from Putin
• Songify The News: Трамп v. Ramp
• Lauren Mayer: Трамп will go down!
• Now This: Senator Tammy Duckworth slams Трамп over Russian bounties
• Now This: The Dotard’s guide to American history:

• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп calls with world leaders leaked!
• Robert Reich: Трамп’s 2020 election strategy in 25 steps
• Samantha Bee: Трамп attacks our nation’s free press, part 1
• Samantha Bee: Трамп’s ongoing attacks on our nation’s free press, part 2
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп denies VERY STRONGLY knowing Ghislaine Maxwell
• Mark Fiore: Make fireworks great again!
• John Di Domenico: Трамп’s last minute, hastily put together, totally unrehearsed “Happy Canada Day” speech.
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard watches Hamilton on Disney+
• Now This: Veterans call out Трамп over paid killings of U.S. troops

Samantha Bee: How to save the Postal Service

Now This: The fight to expand vote-by-mail before election day.

Trevor: The CIA is hiring.

Black Lives Matter:

• Full Frontal: Mike Brown learns how to do the uprising thing.
• WaPo: How to be anti-racist—It’s more than books, quotes and Blackout Tuesday
• Vox: A brief history of police impunity in Black deaths
• The Daily Show: Educate your White friends with Blacklexa
• Jonathan Mann: Karen’s got a gun.
• New York Times: Why some Black Americans need guns to feel safe in their country
• The Daily Show: White people unnecessarily calling the cops on Black people
• WaPo: “Enough is enough”—Seattle police clear protest zone after mayor’s executive order

Hasan Minhaj : Why doing taxes is so hard.

The Foundation Singers: NOVEMBER!

ТрампPlague:

• John Oliver: Coronavirus IX—Evictions
• Sky News: “Heading to pure hell”—Texas counts the cost of lifting coronavirus lockdown early
• Randy Rainbow: COVER YOUR FREAKIN’ FACE!:

• John Di Domenico: Трамп RANTS about all the names for Covid, then announces he is going to sue the Kung flu!
• Roll Call: How to stay safe this July 4th
• Now This: Biden, “Трамп doesn’t understand the basic facts of the COVID-19 crisis”
• Jonathan Mann: Masks, I think they work (Sean Hannity remix)
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп’s Mt Rushmore speech on July 3rd (preview)

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Now This: Who is Ron DeSantis? (Narrated by Yedoye Travis)

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

It’s depressing how the CHOP/CHAZ is ending. There was so much generated there. Art and community. A garden. But when self-declared security forces kill a Black child it’s tough to support the place.

None of this excuses the actions of SPD in the last month or so. None of this means tear gassing protesters is retroactively OK or that we can’t defund the police. Black lives still matter.

(Also wash your hands right now.)