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Archives for June 2020

Election 2020: Biden still leads in early June

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 354 electoral votes
Mean of 184 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

It has been mid-May since I published one of these analyses. back then, Biden led Trump in the electoral college with a mean of 348 to 190 votes.

Now, with over 40 new polls, Biden still leads. In the 10,000 simulated elections, Biden won all 10,000 times. Biden received (on average) 354 to Trump’s 184 electoral votes. If the election was today, we would expect Biden to win with a greater than 99.9% probability.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Open Thread 6/3

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The other day, a helicopter was circling over my neighborhood. It was during the day, and not particularly close to any protest that I was aware of. The urban core has more helicopters since the George Floyd murder.

Anyway, a crow that lives in one of the trees near my apartment and that crow was not having it. It stayed cawing at the helicopter for like an hour. Wir wir wir. Caw caw caw. Going to protest kind of feels like being that crow. It may or may not be making a difference, but it would be worse to say nothing.

This isn’t a great metaphor, but it would be great if you wash your hands right now.

Open Thread June 1

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Dear Mayor Durkan (cc Chief Best),

While I have many problems with the police response to the protests over the weekend, this email is about one aspect. I read with horror about the rifles that briefly went missing on Saturday. Shame on the city for bringing rifles to a protest.

Were the police planning on getting into a shootout with protesters? However much property damage and calamity there may have been, there is no situation where having rifles is an improvement. It is horrible policy on its own. It is also bad symbolism at a protest of deadly police violence. I urge you to not bring rifles to future civilian protests.

Thank You

Carl Ballard

(Not included in the letter, wash your hands right now.)

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