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Archives for May 2012

Hitting the Wall

by Lee — Thursday, 5/31/12, 10:36 pm

Scott Morgan has a post up today asking why Democrats continue to defend the drug war. He quotes Paul Waldman at The American Prospect, who wrote this:

At the moment, there remains a strong incentive to support the status quo, lest you be targeted in your next race as some kind of hippie-lover. The incentives on the other side, on the other hand, are almost nil. When was the last time somebody lost a race for being too tough on drugs? The half of Americans who favor marijuana legalization are not an organized voting bloc that gets together to punish its opponents at the polls.

Waldman posted that on Tuesday the 29th. On that same day, Texas Congressman Silvestre Reyes was defeated in a primary by El Paso City Council member Beto O’Rourke. O’Rourke decided to challenge Reyes after the longtime Congressman fought back against O’Rourke’s attempt to pass a city resolution calling for a broader debate on drug policy, including legalization. Reyes ran attack ads trying to paint O’Rourke as being soft on drugs. And it backfired. O’Rourke captured over 50% of the vote and prevented even a runoff.

While some may argue that there were several factors beyond the drug war that led to Reyes’ defeat, the Attorney General’s race in Oregon a few weeks ago was clearly an example of someone losing a race for being too tough on drugs. Former U.S. Attorney Dwight Holton was the early favorite to win the Democratic nomination for Attorney General, but his previous attempts to undermine Oregon’s medical marijuana laws came back to haunt him, as underdog Ellen Rosenblum attacked him over that and won a landslide victory. In that race, medical marijuana was clearly the main differentiator between the candidates, and the “tough of drugs” candidate got demolished.

Morgan sums it up really well:

Really, the whole notion that candidates who support reform will be labeled as “hippie-lovers,” is nothing more than a fictitious cliché without a single good example to justify its utterance. Instead, we’re witnessing the emergence of the exact opposite, a new dynamic in democratic races wherein a history of defending the drug war is a political liability that can be exploited to powerful effect by candidates who side with the majority of voters in favoring reform.

That’s why it’s so frustrating to see observers like Waldman, who supports reforming drug policy, nevertheless endeavor to uphold the notion that political realities require our leaders to do the wrong thing. If Obama were to read that analysis and find it convincing, Waldman would have succeeded in helping the President rationalize his refusal to support reform. We’re hurting our cause when we say stuff like this, and worse yet, the idea itself isn’t even true.

I’ve often argued that Democratic support for the drug war isn’t as much a result of special interest pandering as it seems (although that certainly happens). Much of it is just inertia from a time not long ago when this political calculus was actually true. But times have changed quite drastically in the past 10-20 years, and those who’ve noticed the change are being rewarded by the voters. And those who aren’t are finding themselves like Silvestre Reyes and Dwight Holton, wondering how they managed to lose to “some kind of hippie-lover”.

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Coming Around to the Top Two

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 5/31/12, 8:58 pm

I still think a closed primary is better than an open one. But I’m coming around to the system we have. So reading my friend Ray’s piece on the California top 2 system, here are some rambling thoughts on the process here.

The goofiness of having Democrats run against Democrats in a general election is both the main hurdle to acceptance and what I’ve come to like about it. So, yeah, it makes it tougher for Democrats to elect the most liberal person in liberal districts. And it makes it tougher for the Democrats to control who is their nominee.

On the other hand, we’ll have campaigns in 2 of Seattle’s Legislative Districts doing independent GOTV. It can help statewide elections to have local elections that matter. And, I like having some choice in November.

I’d prefer if we went back to the old system, or better yet had a primary where Democrats couldn’t help pick the Republican nominee or Republicans pick the Democratic nominee. But I’m not as opposed to the system as I was when we got it.

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Poll Analysis: McKenna leads Inslee in May

by Darryl — Thursday, 5/31/12, 5:12 pm

A new poll came out yesterday in the gubernatorial race between Jay Inslee (D) and Rob McKenna (R) yesterday. The poll was by Seattle-based Strategies 360, and showed McKenna leading Inslee 43% to 39%. The poll was taken from 22nd through the 24th of May on a sample of 500 likely voters (MOE 4.4%).

Before I get into the analysis, I have two confessions.

First, I ignored the Strategies 360 poll from last September. Basically, I was told they were working as a partisan (Democratic) pollster, and for that reason failed my inclusion criteria. When I saw the results yesterday, I got curious and called their VP of Polling and Research, Kevin Ingham. He set the record straight. They don’t work for candidates, and their election polls are not done on behalf of a partisan client. Okay….they’re in!

The second confession is that there was another poll in May that I previously missed. It came out while I was off-line travelling for a couple of days, and by the time I stumbled across the poll it was old. That poll was from SurveyUSA and had McKenna leading Inslee 40% to 38%. The poll was taken on May 8th and 9th on a sample of 557 individuals (MOE 4.2%).

With two polls for May, one taken early, one later, I’ll analyze them together using a Monte Carlo analysis of a million simulated elections.

Between the two polls, there were 1057 “votes” of which 844 went for either McKenna or Inslee. Inslee received 407 “votes” (38.5%) and McKenna received 438 (41.4%) “votes.” The simulated elections were won by Inslee 221,876 times and McKenna, 770,944 times. Here is the distribution of election outcomes from the simulations:

TwoMayPolls

The results suggest that, if the election was held in May, Inslee would have had a 22.3% probability of winning the election, and McKenna would have won with a 77.7% probability. By standard statistical inference, McKenna’s lead is “not significant.” He’s have to have a 95% or greater probability of winning for a “significant” lead. Still…I’d rather have a 78% probability than 22% probability of winning….

The larger trend in the election can be seen from the collection of polls:

GenericCongress01May12-31May12Washington

A reasonable read of the raw polling data is that McKenna maintains a small lead over Inslee at this point in the race.

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Open Thread 5/31

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 5/31/12, 8:02 am

– These people aren’t advocating for “life.” They are advocating a political strategy that stigmatizes a legal medical procedure in order to punish those they see as sexually transgressive with either death or the financial instability that follows from a lack of reproductive choice. [h/t]

– The gun violence problem is in Seattle. The solution is in Olympia. Maybe, but let’s not ignore what Seattle can do and let’s also not ignore the gun violence in the rest of the state.

– Chart of the day.

– Lord knows I’m a terrible speller. But Amercia?

– I found this piece on dead pigeons quite fascinating, but note there were some graphic videos/pictures.

– Sometimes I listen to Mariners games on the other team’s feed (you get a different assessment than from the Seattle announcers). Early this season, when they were playing the A’s, the radio guy said that there was another event at the same time as the game the following day, so everybody take public transportation. It wasn’t a wishy-washy you might want to consider type of thing. I don’t know if we need a system as comprehensive as BART before we can not be worried about getting stuck in traffic when we build sports stadiums.

– Honk if you love Jesus

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Poll Analysis: Romney slips a bit

by Darryl — Wednesday, 5/30/12, 9:12 pm


Obama Romney
99.9% probability of winning 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 326 electoral votes Mean of 212 electoral votes

My previous analysis of state head-to-head polls showed President Barack Obama leading Romney with a mean of 323 to 215 electoral votes. Obama had a 99.5% probability of winning; Romney had a 0.5% chance.

Six new polls have been released since then. I’ve also fixed a few minor errors (largely in older polls) thanks to some more help from Sam Minter:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA LA Times 17-May 21-May 1002 3.5 56 37 O+19
CO PNA/Keating 21-May 24-May 601 4.0 48 44 O+4
MI PPP 24-May 27-May 600 4.4 53 39 O+14
MO PPP 24-May 27-May 602 4.0 45 44 O+1
WA Strategies 360 24-May 27-May 500 4.4 51 40 O+11
WI Marquette 23-May 26-May 625 — 51.2 43.0 O+8.2

That’s a rather blue collection of new polls.

Both of the current California polls have double-digit leads for Obama.

In Colorado, Obama squeaks out +4% over Romney, whereas the previous poll had them tied. Overall the trend in Colorado polls looks favorable for Obama:
ObamaRomney30Apr12-30May12Colorado

Michigan gives Obama a remarkable +14% lead over Romney. One has to go back eight polls, to November 2011, to find a poll in which Romney is leading. Obama has managed to turn Michigan around, from toss-up to solid Obama, over the past six months:

ObamaRomney30Apr12-30May12Michigan

In Missouri, Obama has a meager +1% lead over Romney. Up to now, Missouri has given a small edge to Romney over Obama. My hunch is that further polling would put the state back into Romney territory. Here are the polls to date:

ObamaRomney30Apr12-30May12Missouri

The new Washington poll puts Obama at +11% over Romney. Both current WA polls give Obama double digit leads.

We have six current polls in Wisconsin. And all but one goes to Obama. With today’s poll, the trend cannot be considered good news for Romney:

ObamaRomney30Apr12-30May12Wisconsin

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,941 times and Romney wins 59 times (including the 13 ties). Obama gains three electoral votes for an average of 326 to Romney’s 212. If the election was held now, Obama would have a 99.9% probability of beating Romney, based on the polling data.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Can’t Live In Fear

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 5/30/12, 5:18 pm

As I was leaving work today, I was told to be careful. The implication, I suppose, that because of the awful things that had happened earlier today that with the suspect then still on the loose, that I should be afraid walking home. That perhaps I shouldn’t go out for dinner if I was planning it. That maybe I shouldn’t go out for a bike ride after work even if it’s nice out, because who knows?

And I appreciate the concern. I get the fear. But you can’t wall yourself off from life because of some slim possibility that something will happen. You can’t hide from fear. For those of us who live or work or play in Seattle, well, it’s our city.

It’s not the city of the gunmen. It’s not the city of the drug dealers or the gangsters. It’s not the city of criminals. It’s our city.

Obviously, none of this is to say that we should ignore crime or murder on a policy level, or that there aren’t policies that we should implement to prevent future tragedies of this nature. I hope this prompts us to look at our gun culture and our culture of violence. What it should mean is that we can still live our lives in our city.

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Another Eyman Initiative ruled unconstitutional

by Darryl — Wednesday, 5/30/12, 11:07 am

Via Slog:

Tim Eyman’s 2/3 majority requirement for raising new state revenue is unconstitutional, according to King County Superior Court Judge Bruce E. Heller.

The law enacted through Initiative 1053 is ruled unconstitutional; it directly contradicts the Washington State Constitution, Article II, Section 22:

No bill shall become a law unless on its final passage the vote be taken by yeas and nays, the names of the members voting for and against the same be entered on the journal of each house, and a majority of the members elected to each house be recorded thereon as voting in its favor.

Of course, the ruling will be appealed and, ultimately, settled by the Supreme Court. With any luck, the Supreme Court won’t be able to weasel its way out of a substantive ruling this time….

The next question: If I-1053 is unconstitutional, what should be the fate of its latest incarnation, I-1185, should it get enough signatures to qualify for the ballot? Will AG Rob McKenna sue Eyman to keep an unconstitutional initiative off the ballot?

You know, like AG Christine Gregoire did with Goldy’s Horses’ Ass initiative.

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Another Isolated Incident

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 5/30/12, 7:44 am

These anti-choice acts of violence that have nothing to do with any other act of violence have come fast these last few days.

A New Orleans women’s health organization was destroyed last week by an unknown arsonist, becoming the latest target of attacks on women’s health clinics in the south.

The organization, Women With A Vision, was likely singled out because it offers AIDS prevention help, HIV testing, and substance abuse assistance to sex workers, transgender women, poor women, and women of color. The clinic also does community outreach and education on those issues. Like two incidents in Georgia last week, no one was injured in the fire, but the clinic lost a good share of its resources.

This incident and the countless — unrelated — ones like it that have nothing whatever to do with the political rhetoric that opposing women’s rights to control their own bodies. It certainly has nothing to do with a climate of violence.

[h/t]

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Judge: Rob McKenna is off the hook because his lies were political

by Darryl — Tuesday, 5/29/12, 7:05 pm

Rob McKenna is being sued by some 90 women. The reason is his participation in the Attorneys General lawsuit against the 2009 Patient Protection and Affordable Care act (i.e. “Obamacare”). The group argues that:

[…] McKenna violated his ethical duties as an attorney by pushing for the entire health-care law to be overturned; that McKenna should be forced to file a corrective pleading with the US Supreme Court saying that he only opposes the individual mandate aspect of the health care law, which requires every US citizen to get insurance; and that the court should find McKenna guilty of issuing “false and misleading statements” about the health care law because he claimed that his lawsuit was aimed not at overturning the entire act, but only at eliminating the individual mandate.

McKenna has been lying to Washingtonians. He has repeatedly claimed that he supports some aspects of the law, all the while participating in the effort to overturn the entire law.

Today we learn that King County Superior Court judge Sharon Armstrong will not issue preliminary injunction directing McKenna to fix the inconsistencies between his public and legal positions by amending his Supreme Court briefings.

The meme in the mainstream media seems to chalk the ruling up as a perliminary victory for McKenna. But Publicola political uberwonks Erica C. Barnett and Josh Feit (now at Crosscut) catch the more nuanced meaning of the ruling—the courts won’t judge McKenna for his political lies:

Although King County Superior Court Judge Sharon Armstrong’s rejection of a request to enjoin McKenna from arguing against the federal health care law certainly looks like a win for McKenna, the ruling effectively finds that, contrary to his public statements, he has in his legal motions consistently opposed the entire Affordable Care Act, not just the requirement that every American buy health insurance. The judge specifically said that McKenna’s public statements were “political statements” that had to be judged in the political realm rather than the courtroom. As to McKenna’s going along with other states’ attorneys general in seeking to have the law overturned in its entirety, Armstrong said the court lacked authority to second-guess whether it was a wise legal strategy.

In other words, Judge Armstrong leaves it to the voters of Washington to judge McKenna for his political lies.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 5/29/12, 3:47 pm

DLBottlePlease join us tonight for an evening of politics, conversation and birth certificate scrutiny over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm, but some folks show up earlier for dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night as well. Also next Monday, the Olympia, Yakima, and South Bellevue chapters of Drinking Liberally meet.

With 232 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and three more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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Open Thread 5/29

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 5/29/12, 7:57 am

– If you drove hundreds of miles out of your way for booze this weekend because of the transition between state and private stores, it may be because you’re a lush.

– Washington state politics are this fucked up.

– I think this sort of writing about race–and really about American politics–as though history doesn’t exist is a problem. Specifically, journalists are fond of saying “racism is only one factor” without realizing that any racism is unacceptable.

– I’m not saying the fact that Nickleback is Rob McKenna’s favorite band should disqualify him from being governor (that’s what his policies are for) but it’s certainly a mark against him.

– How the GOP is fighting for you.

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Memorial Day open thread

by Darryl — Monday, 5/28/12, 10:01 am

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Bird’s Eye View Contest

by Lee — Sunday, 5/27/12, 12:00 pm

Last week’s contest was won by wes.in.wa. It was Tacoma.

This one is related to something in the news from May, good luck!

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HA Bible Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 5/27/12, 7:00 am

Leviticus 18:17
Do not have sexual relations with both a woman and her daughter. Do not have sexual relations with either her son’s daughter or her daughter’s daughter; they are her close relatives. That is wickedness.

Discuss.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 5/25/12, 11:58 pm

Young Turks: Americans are fundamentally progressive says new poll.

Thom: The myth of the 1% job creator.

Sam Seder: Bigoted Pastor wants to round-up gays & wait for them to die.

Kimmel: Mitt’s first day in office.

Actual Audio: Mitt on Bain.

Young Turks: Barry Obama & The “Choom Gang”:

Thom with the Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Ugly.

Sam Seder: Iowa G.O.P. platform is insane.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Missouri experiments with execution.

A A rallying call for Democrats.

Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Memorializin’ the War on Women.

Young Turks: Which Presidents have higher spending growth, Democrats or Republicans?

Thom: Why Joe Biden needs to blurt out a defense of pot.

Sam Seder: Rush Limbaugh gets creepy with 14-year-old girl.

Ann Telnaes: Pelvic Politics.

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Young Turks: Pres. Obama is right about same sex marriage.

Letters to the President: Tanisha’s Story.

Pap: The worst Republican Party in history.

Sam Seder: FAUX & Friends nutty ideas about food stamps and the unemployed.

Stephanie Miller: Lessons Romney needs in education.

And the Drone Goes On:

  • Ann Telnaes: Drone strikes and collateral damage.
  • Mark Fiore: Dronetopia!

Thom with Nick Hanauer: Is Romney a preditor?

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Stigmatizing Poor People is Good?!

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Wisconsin edition.

Maddow: The Reverse-Robin-Hood Republicans.

Mitt Romney: Not a job creator.

Sam Seder: Heartland institute gets blowback over Unabomber/Climate Change denial campaign.

Alyona: Romney’s education plan FAIL:

Fred Karger for President.

White House: West Wing Week.

Obama and the fight for LGBT rights.

Greenman: How to talk to an Ostrich.

Maddow: Anti-abortion activists terrorize doctors in Georgia.

Thom with even more of the Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Alabama doubles down on undocumented immigrants.

The Neo-Racists Birfers:

  • Ed and Pap: Romney is embracing Birfers.
  • Young Turks: NBC should fire birfer Donald.
  • Bill Maher: Countering Birferism with Wiferism.

Buzz 60: Summer of presidential politics.

Obama speaks to Iowans:

Young Turks: Clinton poses with porn stars.

Ann Telnaes: Physical limits in Afghanistan.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Recent HA Brilliance…

  • Wednesday Open Thread Wednesday, 5/7/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 5/6/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 5/5/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 5/2/25
  • Friday Open Thread Friday, 5/2/25
  • Today’s Open Thread (Or Yesterday’s, or Last Year’s, depending On When You’re Reading This… You Know How Time Works) Wednesday, 4/30/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 4/29/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 4/28/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 4/28/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Saturday, 4/26/25

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