Archives for July 2011

Not news: Congressional Republicans are way out of touch with a majority of Americans. In particular, their seemingly religious proscription against raising taxes isn’t a value shared by most Americans.

A new Gallup poll asked respondents on what methods should be used to reduce the federal deficit. There were five answers ranging from “Only with spending cuts” to “Only with tax increases”.

Not surprisingly, almost nobody (4%) opted for “Only with tax increases.” But just 20% said the deficit should be reduced with spending cuts only. Another 30% said “mostly with spending cuts.” And 32% wanted equal doses of spending cuts and increased taxes.

So half of Americans fall on the “mostly–to–all spending cuts” side of things. But “mostly” isn’t part of the ethos of many Congressional Republican. Rather, they have entrenched themselves in a “zero tax increases” mindset, and one they share with but 20% of Americans. To them there is a world of difference between the two options—there is a line drawn that cannot be crossed, lest they commit sacrilege before the eyes of their God (by whom I mean, of course, Grover Norquist).

Common sense, logic, reality, education, hunger, unemployment, investment in the future, the reputation of the U.S., the security of the U.S., the fiscal solvency of the U.S. all be damned! (“Norquist Will be done.”) No tax increases of any type for any reason! (“By the Grace of Grover.”)

It’s not just out of touch with 80% of Americans, when their religion compels them to hurt America, it’s treasonous.

News: Congressional Republicans are out of touch with Republicans. The same Gallup poll looked at the question by party identification:

We see that 68% of Republican respondents will accept tax increases at some level to fix the budget deficit.

In other words, only a quarter of American Republicans worship at the Altar of Norquist.

As August approaches, Congressional Republicans have a big decision to make: Grover or Country.

Pray they choose wisely….

During his campaign announcement speech, gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna (R) was all about education. The only problem is…he has no way to fund the pricey stuff he proposed:

“Rob McKenna’s $5.76 billion education plan flunks basic math,” said Aaron Ostrom, Executive Director of Fuse Washington, the state’s largest progressive organization. “He’s trying to fool voters with a smoke and mirrors plan that even he himself has labeled ‘hard to fathom.'”

McKenna made two specific and ambitious spending proposals:

• Doubling higher education spending from 8 percent ($2.56 billion) to 16 percent ($5.12 billion) of the state’s $32 billion budget, an increase of $2.56 billion.
• Growing public education’s share of the budget from 41 percent ($13.12 billion) to 51 percent ($16.32 billion), an additional increase of $3.2 billion.

In total, Rob McKenna proposed $5.76 billion in new spending in just one hour – $600 million more than the budget deficit the Legislature spent nearly five months working to close.

To pay for it, McKenna has two modest proposals…. Regardless of the merits or feasibility of either proposal, combined they would pay for just 13 percent of McKenna’s new spending.

McKenna is also relying on revenue assumptions that don’t pass muster, even with himself. When pushed by several reporters after his speech, McKenna admitted he was also relying on the estimated 13 percent growth in government revenue (approximately $4 billion) for the next biennium.

Big talk…zero chance of realizing it—the math just doesn’t pan out. Man…that McKenna sure has difficulties when it comes to mathematics!

But who do educators actually support? Well, it is a little early to say for sure, but Publicola’s Josh Feit made an interesting observation:

Inslee raised nearly $10,000 from teachers and educators—not the union, just individual teachers, about 30 of them. McKenna has raised just $850 from teachers, a low number for a candidate who’s stumping on education issues.

Two hypotheses:

1. Educators find Jay Inslee to be the more appealing candidate, and we might expect a roughly similar 10:1 ratio of donations from educators to Inslee:McKenna in the future.
2. It’s a one-time anomaly. Inslee’s just received a transient surge of donations from appalled math teachers.

Which one is right? Beats the hell out of me. I report, you decide.

There are a whole host of issues where Democrats are the party that believes in making the tough, rational choices. From taxes, to building the middle class, to environmental policy*. We’re the party that has to tell people the truth: we’re going to have to burn a lot less carbon. We’re going to have to make industrial polluters pay if we want to slow industrial pollution. We’re going to have to pay taxes if we want education and social services.

I sometimes hear this described as a messaging problem: We’re the party that tells voters that they have to eat their vegetables and do their homework. If most voters were under 16, this would be a problem. Fortunately, most adults understand the value of vegetables and homework.

The problem isn’t that Democrats have to sell eat your veggies, it’s that they can’t sell eat your veggies to adults. I’m not particularly health conscious, but my whole apartment smells of the vegetables I roasted for dinner tonight. Sure, I’d rather have chocolate cake for dinner but I, like most adults, understand that in the long term that’s not a good idea.

And I think that’s the attitude we have to take: Sure tax increases are annoying, but the things they fund are better in the long run. Sure, there might be a problem switching to greener sources of energy and it might be a drag for some people to drive less, but the oceans are dying and the globe is warming. We’ll try to accommodate that as best we can, but ultimately, there is going to be some pain.

I know, I know, Jimmy Carter gave a speech in 1979, and a year and change later lost a presidential election. So we always have to sugar coat things. But seeing the consequences of the last 3 decades of a policy of cake for dinner and no homework, we may be ready for politicians to treat us like we’re adults.

[Read more…]

Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) tells the Republicans to stop acting like children because otherwise real people are going to get hurt:

“The possibility that seniors could be denied Social Security benefits is frightening,” Murray said. “Rather than accuse the President of scare tactics, my Republican colleagues should tell the extreme voices in their own party that it is time to act responsibly.”
[…]

“Senate Republicans have put us in this position by walking away from every attempt at finding a long-term solution to our national debt….They continue to deny that their irresponsible actions will have real consequences for the American people. This is not about bumper sticker politics. This is about real people, who could be hurt if Republicans fail to act reasonably and responsibly.”

In the mean time, presidential wannabe Michele Bachmann says both stupid and crazy things:

“This is a misnomer, that I think the President and the Treasury Secretary have been trying to pass off to the American people, and it’s this: that if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling by $2.5 trillion that somehow the United States will default and we will lose the full faith and credit of the United States…”

“That is simply not true. Revenue will continue to come in to the United States Treasury. It’s merely the President’s obligation and the Congress’s to make sure that the interest is paid on the debt. We’re grateful that revenues are sufficient to be able to pay interest on the debt.”

This is stupid, on one level, because of Ms. “J.D. from Oral Roberts University” mistaken use of “misnomer”. A “misnomer” is an error in naming something, whereas I suspect she wanted to use the word “misunderstanding.”

But it is stupid on another level by the fact that she is misinformed. Since mid-May the U.S. Treasury has been tapping its fiscal buffers—shifting money around between its bank accounts and delaying pension contributions—all this so that the government’s bills get paid.

In August, the buffer runs out. The government will have to borrow money in order to pay all of its bills, because revenues will fall substantially short of the bills owed. And there are no more buffers.

Sure…we can pay military families, pay service on the debt, and a few other things. But about 1/2 of the Government’s bills will go unpaid as of Aug 2. The LA Times runs down the numbers:

In August, the government is expected to collect about $172 billion in revenue and will face about $307 billion in bills, according to an analysis by the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington think tank. So, in theory, the government would have the money to pay a little more than 55% of its bills during the month. But which bills to pay? Interest on existing debt comes to just under $30 billion, Social Security checks are $50 billion, Medicare is another $50 billion, payments to military contractors for weapons, fuel and other costs comes to $32 billion and salaries for active-duty military personnel come to about $3 billion. Add in unemployment benefits ($13 billion for the month), and the government would already have run out of money without paying a single civilian employee or running any of its domestic programs, including courts, disaster relief, national parks, veterans benefits or welfare programs.

However you slice it up, some bills will not get paid, and a lot of people will be hurt in the process.

A second, and perhaps the worst, effect will be the long-term impact on bond interest rates:

The federal government has been able to borrow money at very low interest rates because investors around the world look at U.S. government securities as a very safe place to put their money. If the government’s ability to pay its bills came into question, the people who buy bonds almost certainly would demand a higher interest rate. That would ripple quickly through the economy. In a letter to Congress and the president Tuesday, the Business Roundtable, Chamber of Commerce and other business leaders warned: “Treasury securities influence the cost of financing not just for companies but more importantly for mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and student debt. A default would risk both disarray in those markets and a host of unintended consequences.”

Bachmann’s error is believing that a failure to pay your bills on time doesn’t affect your credit rating.

That belief is ignorant. And that ignorance poses a clear danger to our country.

– I hope the Seattle 8th graders who signed up for College Bound is a product of an aggressive push, and not a crappy economy.

– “After years of enduring rancid slavery analogies it should be hard to get pissed off at this conservative trend du jour, but amazingly its not!”

– Great turnout for the Metro hearing. If you didn’t make it, you can still make public testimony here.

– News Corp makes GE’s paying 0 taxes seem like a good deal for taxpayers.

– Republicans, stop pointing guns at journalists (even adorable guns).

– “if any of your readers would also like to send me the batteries that would be great“

Please join us tonight for drinks, conversation, and dinner at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

Tonight we will be joined by state Rep. Roger Goodman (D-45 LD). Rep. Goodman is running for Congress in Washington’s 1st CD, the seat currently held by Rep. Jay Inslee.

We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but a few folks show up earlier for dinner.

Special Event: Tonight from 6:00pm to 8:00pm there will be a public hearing on King County Transit service cuts. The meeting will be held in the King County Council Chambers, 516 Third Avenue, 10th Floor, Seattle. If you can make it, please stop by DL afterward and share your experience and insights with the rest of us.

Can’t make it tonight? With 229 chapters of Living Liberally, chances are good that there is one near you.

I’ve enjoyed Darryl’s pieces on the polling and general speculation about 2012. And of course, with people throwing their hats into the ring, it’s important to see where we are. And our speculation can help inform the next year and a half. But, there’s still a long way to go, and as HA’s resident worry wart, I have to point out that the narratives may all go awry between now and election day.

Right now, for example, most people think the Governor’s race will be close, even if you can’t predict the winner. After all, the last time there wasn’t an incumbent, that’s what happened. And it’s what the polls show this far out. But a lot of people said the same thing about Cantwell’s last race this far out. Sure, you can argue that McGavick, with no experience as a candidate, was more prone to screw up than someone who has already won statewide twice, or someone who has been a candidate every other year since 1998, and many times before that. Maybe. And neither probably have a drunk driving record. Fine. But who knows what happens in the intervening time on either side?

Conversely, Cantwell’s race this time looks like it’ll probably be a cake walk, and hopefully it is. Hopefully Republicans won’t field a particularly serious challenger. Hopefully, the religious, Tea Party, and money interests will fracture. But they also may unite around a serious candidate.

But one of the great things about not knowing for sure is that there’s opportunity to make a difference. You can knock on doors, make phone calls, or give some money. Write letters to the editor, or even comments on blogs. You can call into talk radio or just talk to your friends.

Last Friday, the Obama Administration’s DEA finally replied to a 9 year old request to reschedule marijuana out of Schedule I in the Controlled Substances Act. The response was as predictable as it was insane.

We stop being surprised by this stuff, and all weekend I was at a loss to even know what to write about this, but it begs us to take a step back and look at just how completely bonkers the anti-drug establishment in this country has become. The report claims that marijuana has a high potential for abuse, has no currently accepted medical use, and that it lacks even accepted safety for use under medical supervision.

Just to make this as clear as possible, the American Medical Association has already asked the Federal Government to review its classification after concluding that it has some medicinal benefits that scientists should research further. As far back as 1999, our own government’s Institute of Medicine concluded that there were only mild safety concerns with the drug if it wasn’t smoked – which it doesn’t have to be. A European company called GW Pharmaceuticals already produces a medicine called Sativex directly from marijuana plants that’s used in the UK, Canada, and now Germany for MS patients. And to top it off, the Federal Government’s own Department of Health and Human Services holds a patent on the plant’s medicinal compounds.

But even beyond all that, this is the Obama Administration’s DEA – led by someone, Michele Leonhart, who he appointed – saying publicly that they think that marijuana is a more dangerous drug than cocaine, opium, oxycodone, and methamphetamine, all drugs found in Schedule II; which means that – unlike marijuana – it can be safely used with a doctor’s supervision. We can laugh all we want at the crazy shit that Michele Bachmann says, but she’s never said anything close to as crazy as that. And this is coming from the administration who came into office in 2009 saying that they were going to put science ahead of ideology?

Will the Republicans come up with a credible challenger to Sen. Maria Cantwell for 2012? The topic came up at Drinking Liberally last week, and I’ve been been thinking about it on and off since then. Specifically…who?

Jim Brunner puts together a good analysis. At this point, the big challenge for any potential Republican is money. The clock is running. Cantwell is raising money. Her non-existent Republican opponent isn’t.

Former Washington state Republican Chairman Chris Vance has the political side figured out. (I like how he is able to say reality-based stuff that current Chairman Kirby Wilbur could never say):

“[R]ight now, it’s very much in doubt whether there is going to be a strong candidate.”

“The Republican brand got hammered on the West Coast during the Bush years, and it has not recovered….There are just so many more Democrats than Republicans in Washington state right now — the math just becomes very difficult.”

and

“If a Republican is going to have any chance to beat Cantwell, they have to immediately and sharply distance themselves from the national Republican Party”

Brunner offers three possible challengers: Susan Hutchison, who lost a race for King County Executive to Ron Sims Dow Constantine in 2009, Rep. Dave Reichert, and Port of Seattle Commissioner Bill Bryant.

Not impressive.

Dino! Your party needs you!

– It’s tough to imagine, but I think this is one of Krugman’s most depressing columns.

– The Live Free or Die State

– Seattle should follow Cambridge’s lead until the feds repeal DOMA.

– Ants farm meat, maybe.

Last week’s contest was a tough one, but it was won by Brian. It was Fredericton, New Brunswick.

This week’s contest is related to a TV show or a movie, good luck!

Ephesians 6:5
Slaves, obey your earthly masters with respect and fear, and with sincerity of heart, just as you would obey Christ.

Discuss.

I’m definitely one of McGinn’s biggest supporters. But I don’t cover all or even most of the McGinn stories, and I was all set to pass on the story about how the city pulled ads from The Seattle Weekly. I mean maybe he should have waited until after the meeting, but it’s pretty clear that backpage.com’s policies are a problem. And the city doesn’t have an obligation to spend money advertising with them.

It seems like such an obvious thing that of course you can get behind it. But then I went on Facebook and Twitter where I saw that some people I usually like, despite disagreeing about McGinn in general, had a lot of nonsense to say. So, I just want to address a few things:

This isn’t about silencing an opponent in the media. The Seattle Times still gets advertising money from the city, as it should. If VVM and backpage.com can do a better job of making sure its ads are from people 18 and older, they’ll probably get advertising money back. If not, then we can demonize McGinn.

The mayor isn’t picking and choosing what weekly papers he’s supporting. The Stranger has policies in place to ensure people in its adult service ads are over 18. Even if they didn’t, 2 wrongs don’t make a right.

This isn’t about sex negativity. Good lord.

This may be a part of McGinn’s brash style. As I said, I understand the argument that he should have waited until the meeting with them. If you’re not a fan of that style in general (although I am), I can see why you wouldn’t like the way he made this decision. Still, it’s the right call and not even close.

Finally, nobody thinks this move will solve child prostitution, in general or in Seattle. But the cynical bullshit machine always makes similar arguments for inaction on every issue. Instead of evaluating this on if it’s good policy smart people, who I generally like, are evaluating it on if it’s perfect policy. No, it isn’t. Nobody expects a single move to solve everything. It’s part of a larger strategy that also includes adding cops to troubled areas and updating the SOAP (not the mayor’s office, but a city policy).

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

The Pentagon is Worst Person in the World.

The final shuttle launch:

Liberal Viewer: FOX News admits bias to attack Media Matters?

Maddow: Ninth Circuit Court bars DADT enforcement.

Young Turks: GOP voter suppression like Jim Crow laws.

White House: West Wing Week.

Independence Day:

• Obama on the 4th of July.
• Newsy: The 4th and the Founding Fathers
• White House 4th of July.

Olbermann: Will Newscorp survive the scandal?

Rep. Jim McDermott’s summer reading list.

The Last Word: FOX Murdoch’s News of the World scandal.

Pap: How the G.O.P. is trying to fool African Americans.

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and the Miasmatically Ugly.

Ann Telnaes: Republicans refuse to negotiate on debt.

Thom: Republicans have destroyed the American way.

Young Turks: Republican Senator Orrin Hatch argues that the Poor don’t pay enough taxes.

Palin Around with Crazy:

• Olbermann reads some Sarah Palin Poetry:
• Young Turks: Bristol on her stolen virginity on The View

Thom: Is Bachmann’s Christianity radical even for evangelicals?.

Mark Fiore: Trickle-down Tales.

Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) on Clean energy.

The Daily Show’s best 2nd Amendment moments.

Thom with John Dean: How to get rid of Justice Thomas.

Rep. Jim McDermott’s summer reading list.

Pap: The criminal activities of Justice Thomas.

Young Turks: Slave labor for Wisconsin?

The POTUS Tweets.

Ed: Psychotalk from FOX’s David Asman accusing young Obama of gaming college system.

Oil Spill in Montana:

• Thom: Governor Brian Schweitzer (D-MT) on the river oil spill.
• Young Turks: An oil spill in Montana

What have unions ever done for us? (Via Slog.):

Ohio State Rep. Robert Mecklenborg is Worst Person in the World.

The Daily Show’s Best 14th Amendment moments.

Ann Telnaes: Sen McConnell on raising taxes.

White House: Impressions on the Twitter Town Hall.

The G.O.P. Candidate Asylum:

• Ed: Mitt doublespeak.
• Does Mitt thing nobody is paying attention to his own words?!?
• Santorum’s major math FAIL (via Slog).
• Olbermann: Santorum and Romney gaffe-fest.
• Ed: Psycho-ignorance from Rick Santorum.
• Bachmann hopes high unemployment will help her campaign (via Crooks and Liars).
• Ed: Michele & Marcus Bachmann’s record of intolerance, homophobioa and bigotry:
• Young Turks: Santorum’s very bad math.
• Ed: Allentown Mayor blasts the Mittster.
• Maddow: The crazies vs. the Rombots.
• Young Turks: Michele Bachmann on women being submissive to their husband.
• Last Word: The Right-wing anti-porn pledge.
• Maddow: Klansman David Duke to run for President as a Republican and other strange G.O.P. tales

Ed with some Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) psychotalk.

Young Turks: Michele Bachmann’s anti-Porn vow.

Thom: Republicans ran up the bill…now they don’t want to pay.

Some airline employee is Worst Person in the World.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

The NWroots conference is tomorrow (July 9th).

Speakers:

• Attorney, Rhodes Scholar, and community leader Cyrus Habib
• Undocumented immigrant/UW graduate Alonso Chehade
• Congressional candidate Jay Clough
• Congressional candidate Roger Goodman
• Washington State Labor Council President Jeff Johnson
• Rep. Jim McDermott
• Rep. Jay Inslee
• Rep. Dennis Kucinich
• Former Canadian Health Minister Ujjal Dosanjh

Music: Irthlingz and the Total Experience Gospel Choir.

Registration: Registration/breakfast begins at 7:30am, $50 ($25 students). Or register online.

When: The conference is from 8:30am to 5:30pm.

Where: Comedy Underground in Seattle’s Pioneer Square.

Food: The conference includes breakfast at Swannies & lunch at Fx McRory’s.