I’ve enjoyed Darryl’s pieces on the polling and general speculation about 2012. And of course, with people throwing their hats into the ring, it’s important to see where we are. And our speculation can help inform the next year and a half. But, there’s still a long way to go, and as HA’s resident worry wart, I have to point out that the narratives may all go awry between now and election day.
Right now, for example, most people think the Governor’s race will be close, even if you can’t predict the winner. After all, the last time there wasn’t an incumbent, that’s what happened. And it’s what the polls show this far out. But a lot of people said the same thing about Cantwell’s last race this far out. Sure, you can argue that McGavick, with no experience as a candidate, was more prone to screw up than someone who has already won statewide twice, or someone who has been a candidate every other year since 1998, and many times before that. Maybe. And neither probably have a drunk driving record. Fine. But who knows what happens in the intervening time on either side?
Conversely, Cantwell’s race this time looks like it’ll probably be a cake walk, and hopefully it is. Hopefully Republicans won’t field a particularly serious challenger. Hopefully, the religious, Tea Party, and money interests will fracture. But they also may unite around a serious candidate.
But one of the great things about not knowing for sure is that there’s opportunity to make a difference. You can knock on doors, make phone calls, or give some money. Write letters to the editor, or even comments on blogs. You can call into talk radio or just talk to your friends.