Will Rossi bet his career on a blip?

Reversing a several month downward trend, public approval of Washington’s statewide Dems have recovered somewhat in the latest SurveyUSA monthly tracking polls, with even Gov. Chris Gregoire pulling up a few points from her all-time dismal low of 31% in March.

This holds true for Sen. Patty Murray, who improves to a 46% approval rating, up from her own all-time low of 42% last month. As recently as its January poll, SurveyUSA had Murray at a comfortable 55% approval, pretty much smack dab in the middle of her narrow five-year average.

Much of the speculation over a potential challenge from Dino Rossi stemmed from Republican polls that showed him beating Murray in a head-to-head race, but those appear to have been taken at what now looks like the bottom of a broad, Democratic public opinion trough. Even Republican-leaning Rasmussen now shows Murray once again holding a small hypothetical lead.

The question for Rossi, if he really is seriously considering a run, is what is the blip? Does Murray’s April uptick represent statistical noise, or is the anomaly really the broader, several month decline in Democratic approval that culminated around the time of the health care reform vote?

I’m no polling expert, but a look at the crosstabs suggests the latter, for much of the decline in Murray’s ratings can be attributed to a collapse in support amongst self-identified Democrats and liberals after health care reform appeared to hit an iceberg. A good chunk of these respondents came back to Murray in April, and we can expect that trend to continue as the election grows nearer and voters are faced with an actual choice.

And perhaps that may explain why Rossi appears to be waiting until June to make a decision — so he has more time to figure out whether a trend is really a trend?

Comments

  1. 2

    KlynicalsAFool spews:

    I really wish ACORN would go away soon. This Bertha Lewis lady is clearly a kook who will hurt any reasonable Democrat chances in November. Look at what she just said:

    Child’s play. ACORN CEO Bertha Lewis says the times people are living in now will “dwarf” all those stains on America’s history. And she points to the Tea Party movement — or “bowel movement,” in her words — as a harbinger of the persecution to come. “They are coming. And they are coming after you,” the embattled head of ACORN said during a talk last month to the Young Democratic Socialists, the youth branch of the Democratic Socialists, the U.S. branch of the Socialist International. During the address, Lewis praised the group’s members for calling themselves socialists, and warned that undefined forces are plotting their doom.
    “Any group that says, ‘I’m young, I’m Democratic, and I’m a socialist,’ is all right with me. You know that’s no light thing to do — to actually say, I’m a socialist — because you guys know right now we are living in a time which is going to dwarf the McCarthy era. It is going to dwarf the internment during World War II. We are right now in a time that is going to dwarf the era of Jim Crow and segregation,” Lewis said.

    How in the world does this help the Democratic Party? Just when we get a little momentum, this junk gets spewed.

  2. 3

    Zotz spews:

    Run, Dino, Run!

    Patty will kick his ass anyway, but based on what I see now, the Rs are FUCKED this fall — state and national.

    There’s a few things to play out yet, but if Fin Reg passes (with the Sherrod Brown et al break up the banks amendment), the economy improves, and our two ballot measures (pot and income tax) get on the ballot, Rossi will become a 3 time loser and therefore politically toxic for all time.

    Run, Dino, Run!

  3. 4

    Zotz spews:

    @2: ACORN was framed. Any real progressive would be well aware of that. And Lewis is exactly right about the ‘baggers.

    You’re not fooling any HA regular, you’re just a concern troll or sockpuppet for one of our regular trolls.

    Go the fuck away!

  4. 6

    Brian spews:

    @5 As near as I can tell it’s real estate salesman & quadrennial election loser, but maybe he’s ambitious enough to step up to be a careerist biennial election loser.

  5. 7

    proud leftist spews:

    Zotz @ 4
    Have you noticed the remarkable similarity between the writing styles of Klyinical and Cynical?

  6. 8

    Michael spews:

    @3

    Rossi will become a 3 time loser

    He’s already a three time loser, he lost a race to become a state rep. in ’92.

    So, the Rossi recap is:
    Three losses, one win and he didn’t finish the one 4 year term that he served as a state senator. Not exactly a record to crow about.

  7. 9

    Zotz spews:

    @7: Not the style in terms of words and cliche wingnut tropes exactly, but the de/malformed posts are similar. Klynical and whoever the fuck this guy is can’t format shit, it’s only readable with much difficulty.

    The “real” Klynical’s diatribes, as weird and moronic as they are, actually make more sense than his apparent sockpuppet’s.

    Could be “lost” too.

  8. 10

    Michael spews:

    From the TNT:

    At various times in their evening debate at Peninsula High School, candidates called for eliminating the Department of Education, the U.S. Postal Service, the 17th Amendment right to direct election of senators, the 14th Amendment right to citizenship for U.S.-born children of immigrants, and entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security.

    Read more: http://www.thenewstribune.com/.....z0lr3O85Da

  9. 11

    Zotz spews:

    @8: Thanks for the correction. I think a 3rd statewide race loss would indelibly put the stink of loser on the fucker though.

  10. 13

    juvenis spews:

    Inside sources say the Dino Rossi was recently in Washington, DC meeting with Republican Senatorial leadership. Dino is telling some Dinocrats, who previously supported him in his moderate guise in his run against Gregoire, that he told them that he would be his own man and would not be part of the partisan gridlock. They say he is going to run.

  11. 14

    GBS spews:

    Sing to the tune of The End by the Doors.

    My verision “The Tea Party Signals the End.”

    This is the end,
    Republican friend
    This is the end,
    My Republican friend, the end,
    Of your elaborate plans, the end,
    Of everything Reagan, the end
    No safety or surprise, the end,
    I’ll never look in your lying eyes . . . again
    Can you picture what will be
    So LIBERAL and free
    Desperately in need . . .of some. . teabagger’s hand
    In a . . . LIBERAL land
    Lost in a conservative . . . wilderness of pain
    And all the teabaggers are insane
    All the teabaggers are insane
    Waiting for their Obama care
    There’s danger on the edge of town
    Anti-government haters on the highway, baby
    Weird scenes inside the Voyeur Club,
    Ride the snake, ride the snake
    To the lake, Don’t Tread on me, baby
    The snake is long, seven person teabag rally long
    Ride the snake . . he’s old and his skin is white
    It’s great to hate
    It’s great to hate
    Get here, and we’ll take the bait
    The Freedom Works bus is callin’ us
    The Freedom Works bus is callin’ us
    Driver, where you takin’ us
    The teahadist awoke before dawn he put his boots on
    He took a face from Dick Armey
    And he walked down the hall
    He went into the room where his hippie sister lived, and . . then he
    Paid a visit to his redneck brother, and then he
    He then walked down to the Capital Mall, and
    He came to a door. . . and he looked inside
    Father, uncle, brother, cousin. Yes son. I want to kill you
    Mother Paliban. . . I want to. . . WAAAAA
    Glenn Beck teahadist,——— YEAH “take a chance with us”
    Glenn Beck teahadist, take a chance with us
    Glenn Beck teahadist, take a chance with us
    And meet me at the back of the Freedom Works bus
    Doin’ a Fox News attack
    On a Freedom Works bus
    Doin’ a teahadist attack
    C’mon, yeah
    Kill, kill, kill,
    kill the billl
    This is the end
    Republican friend
    This is the end
    My only Republican friend, the end
    Reason is the truth, it hurts I know, to set you free
    But you’ll never follow me
    The end of Reagan and his lies
    The end of Reagan’s Revolution you tried and died
    The Tea Party signals the end

  12. 16

    rhp6033 spews:

    Gee, it seems to me that about this time of every election year, some poll gets trumpeted about how Rossi or some other Republican can beat an incumbent Democrat.

    But by the time the elections roll around, the Republicans have actually had to – you know, TALK, and the Democrats come out ahead.

  13. 17

    Able American spews:

    Come Nov. 2010..then again in 2012..is when the proof will be exercised by the true folks that understand where this present administration is progressively undermining & shredding the Constitution..with it’s agenda of unsustainable debt structure to create a 3rd. world country out of America..My fears are for ALL of you & my grand kids..that survive & have to live UNDER THEIR government controlled socialistic environment..ALL my efforts & votes will be to help keep this from happening…even tho’ those of you that DON’T & CAN’T OR WON’T SEE WHAT’S BEING DONE!! ((*_*))