I watched most of the Republican debate this evening, and I’ve got to say, it is good news for Obama. He’ll win re-election.
This isn’t partisan wishful thinking on my part. I don’t make the same claim for the Inslee—McKenna race for Washington governor. I have my (very strong) preferences, but the outcome of that race is far from clear.
There isn’t much uncertainty left in the 2012 presidential race. Obama will win, absent of some sort of catastrophe.
You know, some scandal like Obama or Biden shooting a friend in the face, or outing a CIA covert agent, or firing numerous “non-compliant” U.S. attorneys, or getting busted lying about warrant-less domestic spying on Americans, or starting an illegal rendition program, or authorizing torture of prisoners, or misplacing palettes of $6.7 billion U.S. currency. Stuff like that.
I mean, that shit would absolutely sink any President’s chances at a second term…bar none (unless he is a Republican).
Here’s what I have learned from the debate. The Republican candidates (except for Ron Paul) are situated sharply to the right. Ron Paul is a Libertarian kook off in some other political dimension, with zero chance of making it through the primary, but the rest of the pack are extremists! Extremists of the teabagging ilk.
Seriously…at one point (here), a Mainstream Republican in the audience pointed out that he was feeling left out, and asked what candidates would do to take a balanced approach that would include him. Mr. Santorum started out the discussion by pointing out how he had eliminated welfare and set up the template for eliminating other entitlements, like Ryan’s proposals to end Medicade, food stamps. He then pointed out that the “Teaparty is a great backstop for America.” It came off more than a little cccccrazy and not at all inclusive of the mainstream Republican questioner. Bachmann was next and gave a slightly less crazy answer(!)—the Teabaggers R U, she said. Herman Cain started his answer pointing out that the Teabaggers are “not too negative and not too critical.”
Mmm’kay then…feel better, Mr. Mainstream Republican?
Another amusing example of candidates trying to out-crazy each other can be found in the extended exchange on NASA beginning at 7:00 here including the Newtster’s claim that “we’re not a developed country” because of NASA (8:06). What the fuck?
All of the candidates reject the TARP and auto bailouts (at 5:28). So fuck you Detroit! Even Herman Cain, who once support TARP, explains his flip-flop (2:10). The candidates spent most of this debate trying to out-wingnut and out-teabag each other. (Except Paul, who was just being himself—quite sensible about 40% of the time, a lunatic 40% of the time, and too incomprehensible to really tell 20% of the time.)
Everyone knows that candidates swing toward the extremes of their base during primaries and bounce back to the center during the general election. But things are different now. The Teabaggers have dragged Republican candidates not just to the right, but to the extreme right. As they maneuver to out teabag each other, their statements and positions are captured in audio or video in an easy-to-disseminate format.
In the mean time we have Barack Obama, who will not be seriously challenged in the primary. He’s a centrist. He sold himself as a centrist in 2008, and has pretty much lived up to it (or down to it if you are significantly to the left of Obama). He has a solid grip on the center, and he will sit there like a rock through the primary season while the Republicans joust over who is the teabaggiest of them all. The winner of the Republican primary will come out looking like Paul Ryan on Oxycontin wielding the mighty Loofah of conservatism, and will to battle his/her way back to the center, where Obama will be firmly entrenched.
A hope for the Republican might have been to adopt the Bush 2004 strategy: “TERRORISTS, TERRORISTS, EVERYWHERE!” But, oops…Obama killed bin Laden.
He’ll win.
Wonderful. In 2012, we will have the choice between reelecting a center/right president or putting in his far right opponent..
Foriegn wars, drug wars, cavorting with banksters..they’re all the same. So, it’s all about the lesser of two evils…again.
Isn’t the two party system great?
Obama WILL NOT be reelected in this economy…He will try a QE3 to keep his printing press and stock market humming, but no president since FDR has won an election with unemployment over 7.2%.
Not a ghost chance in hell, unless you want to see the End of the American Dream.
8 Trillion in new Cancerous debt per 4 yrs, = 16 Trillion in new debt in an Obama 8 year stay.
That would put the Debt near 24 to 25 Trillion when he leaves.
There is no damn way America can sustain a 24 – 25 Trillion dollar debt.
The Stock Market and Economy would be flopping like a fish with that debt!
First out of the gate was S&P, which changed its outlook on U.S. debt from “stable” to “negative” in April. As the Wall Street Journal notes, that means there is a one in three chance the agency could downgrade the U.S. in the near future.
And what will this do to Interest Rates?
Still on that shtick eh? RICHARD ARMITAGE! Leftist loving State Department Employee.
Keep the lie alive leftist pinheads. That’s all you have.
Not per Newsweek Magazine. Solid grip on what center? 47% approval rating from the rabid leftists. You actually think with unemployment above 9%, the housing market upside down, and jobs being outsourced he’s gonna be reerected?
NOPE!
The only blog they read is this one, and it is predominately government employees with fat pensions who honestly believe this collapsing economic mess will not touch their pension checks.
Amazing. If a Millionaire cannot earn 4% on a million in this economy, how are pension funds making enough to keep the juice wagon running?
They can’t.
So all you guvment pension collectors. Please Vote for Obama, and watch your wages and income tank completely!
Why will Obama win?
Because “somebody” beats “nobody” – and judging from last nights debate, the Republican candidates are a bunch of satirical cartoon cutouts of the teabaggers they’re pandering and will have very little appeal to the broader electorate.
Seven Dwarfs… all named Dopey.
OK, Wingers (you know who you are…)
Tell us who won the debate last night and why – put some positive spin on the night. After that, let us know who your favorite is for the general election, and why – please be specific with regard to their promises and proposed policies.
Pass the popcorn, will ya Rog.
It’s just peachy-keeno if Obama gets re-elected. The Republicans will hold on to the House and possibly gain in the Senate. A government that is divided between the Democrats in the White House and the Republicans in-charge of the House and possibly the Senate can do less harm.
My priorities for any presidential candidate are:
1. Ending the Afghanistan War.
2. Ending the Iraqi War.
3. Ending the War on Drugs.
4. Shrink the American Empire – eventually get our troops out of ALL foreign lands.
5. Tax simplification – a flat tax only, none of this progressive rate shit.
That’s just a partial list. I’ve got to run along.
@8: Uh huh, Dream on politically ignorant:
When the republican majority in the house (and defacto veto power in the senate) prevent nobel prize winners from being appointed (Peter Diamond), obstruct judicial nominees that are obviously qualified (Goodwin Lui), claim that default on the debt is not impoertant, have hearings on how climate change is “false” and generally muck up good government and prevent intelligent people from being in government…this is “good”.
Of course, the simple-minded libertarian says that less government is better – but the financial meltdown due to lack of regulation and many other examples have completely disproven the worn out, pathetically dogmatic unrealistic point of view.
Instead, what divided government has wrought is amendments on abortion and a bunch of republican posturing – including (finally) the republican budget plan that….oh, gives tax breaks to the rich and corporations and guts medicare – and barely touches the deficit if you take out the medicare part.
So this was the alternative to health care reform…wow, no wonder they did not put forward an alternative plan – their plan stinks!
What Puddy fails to recognize is that the republican midgets (yes, if you listened to them last night, not one of them deserve to be in the same room as Obama intellectually) would make things worse. The republicans will lose because their “plan” (as exemplified by Paul Ryan) will destroy the chances of anyone associated with it. Only Gingrich is smart enough to realize this – and he is so tainted already that he cannot win.
The bottom line is that the economy is in bad shape – but the republicans caused the problems and would make it worse. When actually forced to come up with a plan…the republicans are a pathetic joke and then they all fall in line and parrot the same economic voodoo that voters have rejected before – lower taxes will magically bring in more revenue (even though they never have before).
Been there, done that – just a pack of republican excuses and lies.
@7 “Pass the popcorn, will ya Rog.”
I laughed so hard I spilled it all.
LD @ 2 said: “…but no president since FDR has won an election with unemployment over 7.2%….”
Perhaps, but therein lies the answer to the question.
No modern president has had to deal with an economic crisis so severe as that which Obama inherited from the previous Republican administration – except F.D.R. Given a choice between continuing with economic reform (reasonable regulation & enforcement of the financial markets, etc.), or going back to drink the Republican cool-aid which got us into this mix, I’m betting that the voters will treat this more like 1936 than 1992.
Sure, we all wish the economy was recovering faster. But we both know that the Republicans in Congress have used every trick in the book – from Senate holds and filibuster threats, refusal to confirm nominees, etc. – to make sure the economy stays flat until the next election. Shortly after Obama was elected, their Pied Piper (Limbaugh) admitted as much, when he said he hoped Obama would fail. I’ve no idea how someone could sleep at night, hoping that the destruction of the economic well-being of millions of American families is a reasonable price to pay for partison advantage, but the Republicans in Congress don’t seem to have any remorse.
But even with a flat-line economy, Obama can still point out that the economy is much better off now than it was when he took charge in January 2011. If Ronald Reagan’s 1980 debate question was posed again in Nov. 2012 – “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”, then Obama wins.
Obama Hints He May Not Seek Re-Election
MSNBC reports:
“In his exclusive interview with TODAY’s Ann Curry, President Barack Obama admits that there are times when he questions whether he would like to seek re-election after the intensity of his inaugural term. …
“If Obama decided … not to pursue a second term, his family would not be disappointed, he said.”
http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/.....oday_news/
Romney proved himself the King of the Mealy Mouths when he said,
“It’s time for us to bring our troops home.” (Pause) “As soon as we possibly can, consistent with the, uh … the word that comes from our generals that we can hand the country over to the Taliban military in a way that they are able to defend themselves …”
Over to who?
” … excuse me, … the Afghan military to defend themselves from the Taliban.”
Today, everyone will be making fun of Romney for saying “Taliban” when he meant to say “Afghan,” but really, the bigger mistake was that he said, “It’s time to bring the troops home,” when he clearly meant to say, “It’s not time to bring the troops home, at all, sorry, parent of a troop or some troops.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/.....76478.html
I think Darryl is right.
Just look at how great Obama is doing in recent polls. Klynical would love this one-
AOL’s business and finance page slammed Republican economic policies today with an article headlined, “Taxes: Upper Class Cuts Leave Middle Class Bleeding.”
The article suggests GOPers’ approach of cutting taxes and slashing spending conceals a “another agenda” that benefits the wealthy and burdens the middle class and poor.
The article also points out that the ultra-rich pay far lower tax rates than the middle class and working poor. The writer says GOPers’ complaining about today’s all-time-low tax rates on the upper class “seems odd.”
The article sums up the situation as follows:
“With federal finances stretched to the breaking point, belt-tightening sounds like a good idea. The trouble is, Republican proposals basically demand that only the bottom 98.2% of Americans need to cinch their bellies, while letting the top 1.8% — those who make more than $250,000 — take a bigger bite from an ever-shrinking pie.”
http://www.dailyfinance.com/20.....-the-rich/
Roger Rabbit Commentary: We shouldn’t be surprised by the greed and selfishness of the rich — after all, that’s how they got rich. What should surprise us is they’re so successful at flim-flamming so many of the non-rich to vote against their own well-being.
@12 I’d feel better about your statement if the average American had a memory of longer than five minutes. 2010 suggested that a lot of us don’t. And in a democracy you only need 50% of voters +1.
In 2008 Obama defined the election. People voted for or against him; they mostly didn’t care about McCain.
2012 will be different. Many people will be against both candidates, and voting for the one they find least unpalatable. An independent candidate could mess things up big time. Especially with the rotten economy, it’s way too early to make confident assertions about outcomes. Obama’s a solid favorite, but hardly a lock.
Montana law enforcement officers are searching for a crazy, delusional, rightwing, government-hating, survivalist-type “militia” leader after he fired on sheriff’s deputies.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43.....nd_courts/
@17 Any independent candidate would be on the GOP side and suck votes from the GOP nominee, assuring Obama’s re-election.
The rethuglicant candidates are as loony as the trolls here.
I love how LD is teping up to try to out-crazy the puddybitch…
Go baby, go.
I liked the Paul Ryan quote from the debate:
“I liked the Paul Ryan quote from the debate:
““We should think about protecting our borders, rather than the borders between Iraq and Afghanistan,” Paul said earlier in the debate. …”
Article
Seriously, what is it about Republicans that they don’t understand basic geography?
Palin thinks she can see Russia from her front porch, Bachman thinks the American Revolution started in New Hampshire, rather than Massachusetts. Now Ryan thinks Iraq and Afganistan share a border (conveniently forgetting that Iran is between them).
And these guys think they can do a better job with foreign policy???????
Unlike other commenters I don’t think current polling matters for shit. But, Darryl, I wouldn’t hang my hat on the extremism of the Republican field. You’re underestimating the willingness of the beltway press to overlook the shortcomings of any Republican candidate, for any office, at any time. By virtue of being the Republican nominee, they will gain enough credibility to avoid any honest critique by the kind of media that reach the “low information voter.”
If Obama doesn’t prevent the Republicans from completing the sabotage of our economy they began under Bush, he will lose. He had the chance to do so before November 2010, but now it’s probably too late. The GOP can block any measures that would bring jobs and growth. And they will. And fuck them and all Republicans for going along with it.
And at least Bachman isn’t trying to hide behind a “centerist” public persona, and admits that she wants to go back to the days when companies could pollute with impunity and you wouldn’t dare dip your toes into Lake Washington (or Lake Michigan, for that matter)…
Bachmann: Elect me and I’ll kill the EPA
I can see the campaign commercial already. Start with the famous “Iron Eyes” Cody commercial, where the Native American rides his horse among the polluted landscape and waterways, and closes with a tear running down his face. Then a brief picture with naration of the EPA legislation being signed by Nixon and George H.W. Bush. Then pictures with naration showing how air and water polution has declined considerably since the creation of the EPA. Then cut to quotes by Bachman of how she would “kill” the EPA.
Here’s a shorter version of Darryl’s post:
All things considered….
This is the BEST NEWS POSSIBLE for the puddybitch!
The two best rethuglikant candidates are MORMONS!!!!!
Think about it…that will automatically legitimize lots and lots of loony, batshit crazy religous cults…even HIS!!!!
Yay.
Of course, all of the Republicans in the debate condemned “Obamacare”. The worst attack they would dare muster against Romney was by implication: that his Massachusetts health care plan resembled Obama’s too much.
Of course, over the past fifty years or so the Republicans have repeatedly tried to foster the position that British and Canadians hate their health care systems, and would gladly exchange it for ours if given the chance. All right-wing politicians and pundits claimed to know someone from Canada or Britain who had to wait months to receive urgent medical care, and claimed that vast hords of Canadians were crossing the border to take advantage of our private system here in the U.S.
But the current debate over rather modest reforms to the British NHS system proves that to be a lie: every politician is falling all over themselves to promise that Britain would NEVER adopt the U.S. system of private health care and private insurance. Becuase for the vast majority of British, there is NO WAY they would exchange their system for ours.
For Brits, talk of ‘American-style’ care is a heart stopper
Two best statements from the debate:
1) Pawlenty: “Big unions” and “big government” are responsible for the housing crisis.
2) Santorum has “taken bullets” on abortion. No, Mr. Santorum, it’s your side that’s doing the shooting.
@8 “The Republicans will hold on to the House”
I’m not so sure. They ran on “jobs” in 2010 and have done nothing about jobs, so the jobs issue is at least as big a problem for them as for Obama and possibly bigger.
Yes, I’d be happy to have a flat-rate tax, under which the rich have to pay the same percentage as the rest of us. No more of this regressive rate shit we’ve lived with so long.
22-Year-Old Girl Buys $150 Million House
Petra Ecclestone just bought the most expensive house in America. Wait! How can a 22-year-old afford a $150 million home? Why, she worked for her money, of course! She’s a fashion designer. Oh wait — the fashion label she created at age 19 collapsed into liquidation after only 14 months in business. So that can’t be it. Where did the money come from? She must have got it from Daddy. But hey, if you’re lucky enough to be born rich, you deserve to have a 57,000 square foot mansion at age 22! You probably deserve not to pay any taxes, too. After all, think of all the jobs you’re creating — it takes a lot of workers to keep up a place that big.
http://realestate.aol.com/blog.....land-sold/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petra_Ecclestone
She’s a looker, too:
http://www.whosdatedwho.com/tp.....tone/photo
There’s an interesting juxtaposition of headlines on this morning’s AOL news page. These headlines appear, one right under the other:
“Mitt Romney Says Nation Undergoing ‘Agonizing Reappraisal’ of Obama”
“House Republicans Cut Food Assistance For Low-Income Families”
Personally, I think what voters are going to reappraise (besides the plunging value of their homes) is Republican values.
Let’s skip over Romney — he’s got nothing important to say — and cut to the chase. The 2012 election will be a referendum on the Republican Party. Why? Because of shit like this:
“House Republicans Cut Food Assistance For Low-Income Families While Protecting Azaleas
“WASHINGTON — If you’re an azalea at the National Arboretum, you’re in luck — a Republican on the House Appropriations Committee is looking out for you. If you’re a woman, infant or child, however, you’re on your own.
“Slipped into the FY 2012 agriculture appropriations bill that the House is expected to take up today is an unusual provision on page 13 requiring the National Arboretum to maintain a very specific portion of its azalea collection.
“‘The Committee directs the National Arboretum to maintain its National Boxwood Collection and the Glenn Dale Hillside portion of the Azalea Collection,’ reads the bill. ‘The Committee encourages the National Arboretum to … to raise additional funds to ensure the long-term viability of these and other important collections.’
“While azaleas are being carefully tended to, the bill would cut $832 million from a program that provides food assistance to low-income mothers and children. The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities estimates that the reduction could result in as many as 475,000 people being turned away from the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) if food prices continue to rise.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/.....76568.html
Roger Rabbit Commentary: Yep, the GOP’s legacy for the second-worst Republican-caused depression of the last 80 years is going to be a city full of flowers — and a nation full of starving women and children. Well, it’s their own damn fault for not being born rich! It they’re not Petra Ecclestone, let ’em starve!
After the end of the Vietnam War Armitage moved to Washington, D.C. to serve as a
@4 “RICHARD ARMITAGE! Leftist loving State Department Employee.”
I swear, pussybutt must be making this shit up as he types. Here’s Richard Armitage’s actual record:
“In 1978, he returned to the U.S. and started working as an aide to Senator Bob Dole.
“In late 1980, Armitage became a foreign policy advisor to President-elect Ronald Reagan.
“Following that role, he was … Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia and Pacific Affairs … from 1981 to 1983.
“In June 1983, he was promoted to Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy ….
“Armitage left that post in 1989 to serve as a special negotiator for the President on military bases in the Philippines ….
“In 1998, Armitage signed ‘The Project for the New American Century’ letter (PNAC Letter) ….
“During the 2000 Presidential election campaign, he served as a foreign policy advisor to George W. Bush as part of a group led by Condoleezza Rice ….
“The United States Senate confirmed him as Deputy Secretary of State on March 23, 2001; he was sworn in three days later.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R.....ice_career
Leftist indeed.
Eureka! I figured it out! Pussybutt is so far right he thinks Reagan and Bush were leftists! Therefore Armitage, who worked for the Reagan and Bush administrations, is leftist too! It’s simple once you put it in context.
This video of Obama making a joke out of the lack of “shovel-ready” projects will contribute to his demise.
http://video.foxnews.com/v/992.....y-projects
Get used to watching this.
From this will spring the reality that the Stimulus was nothing more than a Democrat Party Money-laundering scheme to bail out local & state governments and mostly the Government Employee Unions so they did not have to participate in the recession.
Obama is his own worst enemy. His untimely sense of humor shows a disconnect with the severity of the problem. The Republicans are wise to focus on Obama’s incompetence and run against Obama in the Primary. In fact, it’s a brilliant strategy. Too often the incumbent gets let off the hook. Not this time. Obama is an easy, easy target. His mystique and novelty has worn off and he has a record to run against.
@33 Put on ignore list.
@8,
Add:
6. Term limits for senators, representatives and SCOTUS judges.
@9,
I’ll be proven right in several years. A divided government is best because it can do less harm.
The only “disconnect” I see is Republicans insisting that the rich should get further tax breaks/subsidies based on the prayer that they “might” use some of it to hire us to clean the toilet bowls of their huge mansions, and their belief that someone who makes a half-million dollars a year is at the bottom of the “middle class”.
The only hope for the Republicans is that they can fool enough voters long enough, and that those voters have very short memories.
@36, Don’t forget hackable voting machines. It won’t matter how the people vote, the tally will go for the person they choose.
Its way too early to make ANY assertions about the election. What really matters is the last 6 months before the election, and I am saying this as a political science major. Bush senior seemed ubeatable for 92 at this time in 91.
@21 by the way Palin never said she could see Russia from her house. Tina Fey said it, playing Palin on SNL. Palin said you can see parts of Russia from parts of Alaska. My mom grew up in Alaska, and saw parts of Russia from Alaska herself.
The silly season will come to an end long before the main campaign season starts and Obama will face a very real threat of losing to Pawlenty, Huntsman, or Romney.
re 38: Yes, but Palin was comparing her ability to see parts of Russia from Alaska as proof of her expertise in foreign relations.
The only person you are kidding is yourself.
re 38: It’s a ‘right back atcha’ for the rightwing branding of Al Gore as the guy who thought he had invented the internet. He never said that. He only said that he was responsible for legislation that made the internet possible.
So: ‘Haw! Haw! Haw!’ Sarah Palin thinks she can see Russia from her window. And that’s a fact.
@38 “What really matters is the last 6 months before the election, and I am saying this as a political science major.”
Geez, your parents sent you to college to learn that?? Even my dog knows that!
@39 Pawlenty, no; Romney, maybe; Huntsman has the best chance of any Republican. Trouble is, he’s not Republican enough to get the Republican nomination. You know what I mean.
# 38: Okay, I checked it out at Snopes.com, and you are essentially correct that Palin only said “You can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska.” My mistake.
If you count Big Diamede and Little Diamede islands, on the string of Aleutian Islands which cross the international boundary in the Bering Sea, there is a 2-1/2 mile distance betweenthem, and it IS possible to see Russia (Big Diamede) on a clear day. But trying to find a sufficiently clear day on the Bearing Sea at two points simultaniously, in order to see 2-1/2 miles between those points, is another matter.
But both John Coltrain @ # 40 and 41 are also correct. At the time, Palin had never been to Russia, and I’m not sure if she had been anywhere outside of the U.S. and Canada. Her viewpoint of the outside world was parochial, at best. Since then she has tried to brush up her image by doing a worldwind tour of a few hours meeting people in various countries, but that isn’t going to make up for years of neglect in understanding the essentials of foreign history, culture, and government.
Why are we even discussing Palin? She’s a non-factor.
Except it’s fun to make fun of her.
@43
Yeah, Huntsman would have the best shot at besting Obama, but he’s got issues getting through the primary.
Still, anyone can lose an election and the election that you thinks in the bag, before it even gets going, is probably going to be the one you lose.
@37
yep, especially when Dean Logan is running things..
correctnotright cracks everyone up with this…
From one who needs a teleprompter to converse each time he speaks? Where are his grades?
We know Obummer has not released his SAT and LSAT scores; any transcripts for college grades from Occidental College, Columbia University or Harvard Law. So all we have is loud mouths like you claiming he’s smart. It does seem he turned it on at Harvard Law. So he has some legal skills. We see he has no plan for America.
ObummerCare is stopping companies from hiring. That $2 Trillion of capital being held is because of his job killing policies.
Lets send Obama out to run a business for a change, maybe he will understand that you cannot spend the company into bankruptcy, and that Credit ratings DO matter when it comes to future interests you will pay as a result of your P poor credit ratings. Ask Greece!
@40 I know she acted as if being close to russia was foreign policy experience. She was wrong to say that, all I was pointing out was that she never said she could see russia from her house.
@41 well yes, he did connect it from congress but the words “i took the initiative in creating the internet” did come from his mouth
@42 Do you really believe this is all I learned in college? Seriously? I was just pointing out how its silly for Daryyl to guarantee an Obama victory this early and said I was a political science major in case people did not believe that I had reason to know that.
He’ll win.
Good. Then I don’t have to vote for RepublicanObama. I loathe him. I don’t want to even hold my nose to vote for him.