King County Elections just posted an update, including a batch of late arriving absentee ballots, and Carolyn Edmonds has closed the gap on Bob Ferguson to a mere 25 votes. Ferguson now leads 8093 (49.97%) to 8068 (49.81%).
The county received 27,000 absentee ballots today, and these numbers represent all the ballots they had on hand. According to Elections spokesperson Bobbie Egan, they will continue to receive ballots through next Tuesday, so it is “impossible to determine” how many might be outstanding. Edmonds did substantially better amongst absentee voters than at the polls, so it is still possible she could take the lead some time over the next week.
I think I misunderstood Bobbie. From the KCRE website:
King County Elections today counted 53,068 additional ballots […] Ballots counted through today include those received through Election Day.
I think that means that today’s update does not include the 27,000 ballots received today. Assuming the rest of the absentee ballots break similarly to those already counted, Edmonds will likely win by a margin that should survive a recount.
I just did a little math, and it turns out that Edmonds continued to garner 54% of the late absentees counted today, just as she had with the early absentees counted on election night. Since there’s no reason to suspect that these trends will reverse themselves, it looks like Edmonds is headed to victory.
The 3515 new votes added to this afternoon’s tally represent about 6.6% of the 53,068 total new ballots countywide. Thus, extrapolating from previous returns, Edmonds would open up about a 120-vote margin on the strength of the 27,000 absentees that arrived today. It now seems likely that she’ll win by a large enough margin to avoid an automatic recount.
Still, in Ferguson’s favor, projections like this turned out to be a complete and utter load of crap during the first count in last November’s gubernatorial race.