Crosscut‘s Erik Neumann has in interesting piece on the importance of Washington’s growing Hispanic population for the next gubernatorial election:
At 755,790 people, Latinos are Washington’s largest and fastest growing minority, currently making up 11.2 percent of the state’s population, according to the 2010 Census. Some counties are predominantly Latino, with Adams County at 58 percent Latino and Franklin at 50 percent. (By comparison, King County is 8 percent Latino.)
[…]According to [UW political science professor Matt] Barreto, Latinos typically favor Democrats 3-to-1 over Republicans. He adds, however, that there is an ideological split among Latinos to consider. “They tend to identify as conservative, but the vote tends to be Democratic.”
(As an aside, Neumann mostly uses the term Latino instead of Hispanic. The New York Times considered which term to use as part of their coverage of the confirmation hearings for Judge Sotomayor, and decided either is acceptable in most contexts. I tend to use Hispanic, unless discussing an individual or group with a known preference for Latino or Latina)
The most recent poll in the Washington gubernatorial race by SurveyUSA provides crosstabs by race/ethnicity. About 6% of all respondents were Hispanic, which seems about right considering that a chunk that 11.2% Hispanic population cannot vote, either because they lack citizenship or are under the age of 18. (As the Crosscut article points out, Washington’s Hispanic population is a young demographic).
The survey found that Hispanic respondents overwhelmingly choose Inslee over McKenna, 84% to 10%, with only 6% undecided. By contrast, the same survey found among the 8% of respondents identifying as Asian or “other”, 52% to 37% support for Inslee over McKenna, with 11% undecided.
Clearly, Washington’s growing Hispanic population will benefit Inslee and, more generally, Washington Democrats.
The implications for GOTV initiatives are clear.
Whether called “Latino” or “Hispanic”, this includes a wide variety of national origins joined only by a common language and with some cultural similarities. Those originally hailing from Mexico have different perspectives than those from Central or South America, the Carribian, or even Spain.
For many years, Republicans relied upon the Cuban vote in south Florida, although this is currently loosening. But anti-immigrant ferver (and racial hatred) is being fanned by Republicans throughout the country, and has pushed hispanics toward the Democrats.
@1 beat me to it, but I was going to say there are at least three distinctive “Hispanic” subgroups in the U.S.: Those of Mexican and Central American origin, Puerto Ricans, and Cubans.
I have some Puerto Rican connections, so I know that Puerto Ricans consider themselves “Castillian Spanish” and utterly different from Mexicans — if you called them “Latinos” they would correct you.
I’m not sure what the Cuban mindset is, because I don’t know any Cubans. But if you meet a Puerto Rican, think “Spanish,” and if you meet a Mexican, think “Latino” or “Hispanic.”
Btw, Puerto Ricans and Mexicans aren’t necessarily affinity groups; I’ve seen racial hatred between Puerto Ricans and Mexicans that rivals for intensity the racial hatred of white supremacists for blacks.
RR @ 3: My Dad knew a fellow who was ethnic Tiawanese. He hated both the Chinese Communists and the Chinese Nationalists, he wanted to kick both of them off the island and declare Tiawan independent.
If anyone thinks this is confusing, just remember that nations which share a common language (sort of) might have very different interests, cultures, and history. Are the Scottish, Irish, English, Welsh, Canadians, Australians, Singapore residents, and U.S. all the same simply because we speek English?
@4 The Irish and English had a pretty hot war going on for quite a while.
Of course, it’s always more satisfying when you can yell “Fuck you, motherfuckers!” from your foxhole, knowing the guys on the other side of the front line know exactly what you’re talking about.
RR @ # 5: Do you really need a translation to understand, in those circumstances?
Roger @2:
Wow, so Roberto Clemente, Carlos Delgado, Bernie Williams, Ruben Sierra, Vic Power, Juan Pizarro, and Felix Mantilla were Castillanos? They’re all Puerto Ricans who wouldn’t have been allowed to play in the big leagues before 1947.
Sure, one could think “Spanish” when considering, say, Jose Feliciano or Edgar Martinez or Ricky Martin or Jorge Posada or Jimmy Smits or Jose Ferrer or J-Lo, but (just like everywhere else) it’s a lot more complicated than that.
@6 An accompanying burst of automatic weapons fire in their direction usually helps them understand.
@7 Of course it’s more complicated than that. My Puerto Rican connections remind me of that every day.
These threads have at least two knee jerk tools of right wing xenophobia campaigns.
heh. Bring it on.. They’re just making our point.
The trolls are just playing with our heads. They actually spend their spare time dropping witticisms at 18th century-style French salons in the University District.
re 11: — addendum: You can call the other guy a douchebag at the salons because it is, after all, a French sobriquet!
These poll numbers show that McKenna is polling WEAK. I would have expected McKenna to be 5 points ahead, if not 10 points ahead at this stage of the game.
McKenna has better name recognition than Inslee. McKenna has been elected statewide twice, including a record margin in state history for Attorney General in 2008 — even as Obama swept the state.
McKenna has a (rather undeserved) image as a political moderate. Gregoire is very unpopular with the people at this point in time. And no Republican has won in 32 years — which could motivate voters to take the risk on a GOP party person.
So it is refreshing to see Inslee ahead by 3 points at this early stage. Definitely a winnable race for Inslee, and a very good starting sign.
@13
A lot can happen, blah, blah, blah.
But at this stage, the high-profile, well or somewhat recognized McKenna is trailing the very unknown Inslee and that’s without any high-profile ads on McKenna’s healthcare lawsuit, anti marriage-equality, tea-bagger affinity, etc. The various trolls and wing-nut radio hosts will tell you all those are pluses in McKenna’s column. But it LEFT-leaning Washington, most definitely they are not. They’re delusional.
So looks like another candidate who will do fine East of the mountains and get smoked West. Too early to call this an 8-10 point Republican loss?
McKenna has spent the last two years torpedoing his opportunity to be elected governor. He has a tin political ear and the political instincts of a deer caught in the headlights.
That’s not to say Inslee is a shoe-in, but I look forward to McKenna’s ham-fisted attempts to thread the needle between the teatard wing of his party and the far more reasonable Washingtonians who will decide the election.
I used to live next to a young woman who called herself “chicano.” When I asked her about all the different terms she broke it down this way.
Mexicans are from Mexico.
Latinos are from places south of Mexico, but north of South America.
Hispanic is some shit Nixon made up.
Chicano’s, we’re political and we’ll kick your ass.
@13 Looks like Washington GOPers, under McKenna’s banner, are gonna stretch it to 40 years in the wilderness. Why? They sowed the seeds of their own destruction when they purged anybody who wasn’t a Bible-thumping fundie from their party in the ’80s. An alternative theory is the Rapture happened when we weren’t looking and their voting base doesn’t exist anymore.
The pukes should’ve elected Richard Pope AG when they had the chance — he’d be governor by now.
Richard proved that anybody can get 40% in this state by pasting an “R” next to his name — and Dino proved that nobody who pastes an “R” next to his name can get 50% in this state.
One hispanic vote here that WON’T be for Inslee.