WA-04 in play?

Democrat George Fearing’s campaign is touting a new internal poll showing that he’s closed to within 52-47 against “Do Nuthin’ Doc” Hastings in central Washington’s 4th Congressional District… a truly stunning margin in this very Republican district.

Voters in Washington’s 4th Congressional District are clearly unhappy with the direction of the country (79% wrong track).  [...] On the question of “Are you happy with the performance of your Congressman”, 65% of voters said ‘No’.

I’ve met Fearing a couple times, and he’s come across as a great guy who would make an excellent congressman, but given his lack of resources, the dearth of media coverage and his district’s Republican leanings, nobody really expected this race to be that close.

Still, this is a pretty cranky electorate (and with good reason), so while I wouldn’t bet money on Fearing, I wouldn’t entirely dismiss this poll either.  Who knows… perhaps we have the biggest upset in the nation brewing in our own backyard?

UPDATE:
Of course, Jon had this earlier, but I just wanted to add my own two cents.

Comments

  1. 1

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Hastings deserves to be gone, if for no other reason, his acting as a whitewash brush man for the corrupt DeLay congress. This is the guy House GOPers called on the sweep their dirt under the carpet so no one would see it.

    Thinking Republicans — even those not particularly fond of the Democratic brand name — should sweep this dust out and give Fearing a chance. Tip O’Neill famously said that “all politics is local” and Fearing without doubt will represent his constituents taking into account how conservative they are.

    Another reason why the 4th’s conservative Republican voters should elect a Democrat this time around is because their district’s economy is heavily dependent on the federal government keeping its promises to fund the cleanup of Hanford and sticking to the timetable they negotiated with the state. These voters need an effective congressman to make sure those federal cleanup dollars are forthcoming. Their own economic interests are not well served by re-electing a guy who is little more than wallpaper.

  2. 2

    rhp6033 spews:

    I think it would be great to see Hastings kicked out, too. But his poll margins look about the same as McCain’s do (nationally). If McCain doesn’t have a chance, then how does Fearing stand a chance this late in the game?

    (Well, arguing against myself, I could point out that McCain is struggling with the electoral college math, wheras Hastings only has to get 50% plus one vote in his own district).

  3. 3

    rhp6033 spews:

    Okay, maybe McCain has a wider gap to fill. Gallup’s overnight polls have Obama up by eight points nationally among likely voters (51% Obama, 43% McCain).

    However, I think that poll (using historical models) might actually be skewed AGAINST Obama. New voters and those who were traditionally disinterested in politics but plan to vote this time are leaning heavily in favor of Obama. The Gallup poll doesn’t take this into account, presuming instead that voters ths year will adhear to past voting patterns).

  4. 4

    Tlazolteotl spews:

    McCain is struggling with the electoral college math, wheras Hastings only has to get 50% plus one vote in his own district

    Yurp.

  5. 5

    Broadway Joe spews:

    Add in the fact that the polls also don’t generally take into account voters in the 18-30 age range. Given what I’ve seen at the ground level, that could mean as much as two to fve percentage points nationally. And between that, and the other candidates available for the protest vote………

    McCain fails to get 40% of the vote nationwide.

  6. 6

    proud leftist spews:

    Did anyone see Tom Delay on Hardball the other night? His mix of anger, hatred, and stupidity is hard to beat. If a man’s eyes are the window into his soul, you look into Delay’s eyes, and you see there ain’t no soul. Remarkable that such a fellow could have risen so high in the Republican Party, and is still considered a leading light in that party.

  7. 7

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Two studies by respected academics suggest the undecided vote will split roughly down the middle. With Obama already over 50% in most national polls, this puts a popular plurality out of reach for McCain. An electoral vote majority appears to be even farther out of reach; in fact, going into the final weekend, Obama is reaching for an electoral vote landslide.

  8. 8

    correctnotright spews:

    Doc Hastings:

    The ethics chair without any ethics. The excuser of DeLay, the sweep under the rug for Foley, the delay , deny and confuse master.
    Yup – another ethically challenged Republican in trouble. Nothing important here, move along, move along.

  9. 9

    zapporo spews:

    neither correct nor truthful @8 –

    Yeah, you came over to SP the other day blabbing on and on about Toby Nixon and unethical use of public funds. Which was great until he personally answered your spurious, unsubstantiated charges with facts. What followed?

    Utter stupefied silence from you.
    Crickets chirping.

  10. 10

    rhp6033 spews:

    Well, Friday came and (almost) went, without any “October Surprise” by the Republicans. You gotta wonder what they’ve got left, they historically pull something out of their nether regions at the last minute. Surely it’s not the Columbia professor thing? They’ve been beating a similar dead horse with Ayers for three months now, with no results.

    If the stock market goes up 700 + points on Monday, you will know that the Treasury Dept. unloaded the last half of the bailout plan directly into the stock market in a last-minute attempt to make it look like the economy’s going to be fine soon. But I think that will be too little, too late.

  11. 11

    rhp6033 spews:

    My only other guess is that Seal forces might storm that ship full of arms captured by Somali pirates a month ago – perhaps sometime over the weekend. The White House might figure that plays into the “national security” thing, which might help McCain.

    But on the other hand, McCain’s recent attempts to distance himself from Bush by criticizing Bush’s performance as President could well have left Bush saying “Screw him. If he doesn’t support me, why should I support him!” (Actually, that does sound a lot like something the petulant Bush would say).

  12. 13

    Where's my Zogby Costume? spews:

    Happy Halloween! This is nothing more than a lame fundraising ploy masquerading as a “poll”. Google the name of the “pollster” and you’ll see its a Democrat PR firm (Bainbridge Media Group) and not a reputable polling firm.

  13. 14

    Matty spews:

    @12

    Fake. She’s far cuter and less of a dingbat than Palin.

    Doc’s only saving grace is he didn’t get endorsed by the real Palin. The vacuum and blackhole created if they had been together would have made the Cern reactor look like an erector set.