Two new polls show Gregoire lead

Both SurveyUSA and Strategic Vision released new polls yesterday showing Gov. Chris Gregoire with a two point lead over Republican challenger Dino Rossi.

SurveyUSA shows Gregoire leading 50-48, well within their margin of error, yet finds Gregoire holding a more comfortable 53-46 lead amongst the 54% of respondents who said they’ve already voted.  Strategic Vision, considered by most observers to be a Republican polling firm, shows Gregoire leading 49-47, but doesn’t provide any crosstabs.

Considering the late stage of this race and the shitstorm of bad press Rossi is receiving this week, I’d guess these two polls just add to the cautious optimism of the Gregoire camp.  It is rather remarkable how nonvolatile this race has proven, given the unprecedented blitzkrieg of negative advertising.


  1. 1

    YLB spews:

    The BIAW’s memory is so short. They’re braindead.

    Anyone remember Rod Chandler’s campaign against Patty Murray?

    I watched a lot more TV back then and every 10 minutes it was like the Psycho soundtrack being played.

    I bet for a lot of people after a while they just have to punish the bastards by voting for the other guy.

  2. 2

    brian spews:

    The traditional media has been shown up by the bloggers.

    More information, better reporting, quicker response time has given voters better information to make decisions about the candidates.

    Funny how that works.

  3. 4

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Despite the Doom & Gloom perpetrated by TEAM HORSESASS, my strong advice to Rossi is DO NOT FOLD. Play the cards you are dealt and call the BLUFF.
    When both sides lay down the cards on Election Night, we will see the Gregoire crowd has been semi-bluffing.

    Rossi will show today in that politically motivated deposition exactly why he should be our next Governor!
    Rossi is plenty strong mentally & emotionally…even when forced to deal with political dirty tricks.

  4. 5

    rhp6033 spews:

    I’m still floored by the number of negative ads coming from both the Rossi and Reichart campaign on TV. Last night in one TV show, I swear they must have had four ads in a row, one after another, which they repeated in the next commercial break.

    For the TV stations, it’s like an early Christmas present. They might as well enjoy it while they can, those revenues are going to be gone next week.

  5. 6

    Norsk62 spews:

    To be frank. I don’t like either canidate.

    I think both parties should be a shamed of their tactics during this election, this sort of propaganda soils the public trust and integrity in of each canidate.

    Skating past the issues and treating us voters like idiots and to be used for just one thing. Our vote to get them elected. Then blow us off when we ask them for help to solve the real issues we are all facing.

    It just makes me feel violated everytime a ad comes on the TV/Radio. Maybe Tim Eyman can finally do some good and create an iniative for campaine reform and some truth in advertising. Then move back to state where he came from.

  6. 7

    ArtFart spews:

    The more Rossi blankets the airwaves with increasingly outrageous propaganda, the creepier he looks.

    Cyn, if you equate “mental and emotional strength” with the tenacity of a used car salesman who’s just been told that he’s out of a job if he doesn’t sell you that lemon on the back corner of the lot, I’m willing to agree with you.

  7. 8

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Bush lost by 7.3 points in 2004.

    My GUESS is that unless Obama wins by more than 11 points, Gregoire will lose.
    I believe she has lost that much support from moderate Business owners and even Democrats.
    McCain did hurt Rossi in this close Governor’s Race by pulling out…no doubt about, especially since Obama is currently Hemmoraging Votes as we speak.

  8. 9

    Steve spews:

    Ranching in Montana is such easy work. It allows Cynical the time to post morning to night, day in, day out, on a Western Washington political blog. The very easy work of ranching in Montana also allows Cynical the time to have lunch at his favorite little cafe in Lacey, which is quite coincidently just a short hop from the BIAW headquarters in Olympia.

  9. 11

    palamedes spews:

    …since Obama is currently Hemmoraging Votes as we speak.

    Ummm, no.

    What is actually happening regarding the Presidential race is that undecided Republicans are coming home to their party, and hardcore undecideds at this late stage of the game tend to decide at a 60/40 or less split towards the Republicans. The net result is that McCain is narrowing the gap slightly with new votes, not that Obama is net “losing votes”.

    Also, Republicans are picking up a huge chunk of undecideds in the southeast, which is one reason why, in other “key states” outside the region, there is little change in their poll results. It’s also why we may not win a Senate seat in Mississippi, though another factor is African-American support in both that state and Georgia. Obama and the Senate candidate there have done exceptionally well with AA turnout, while not so well in Mississippi.

    As for Gregoire vs. Rossi, I simply don’t know how it will turn out. The advertising money being spent is beyond belief, frankly.

    All I can do is keeping working at the phone banks, canvas, and hope.

  10. 13


    Mr. Cynical?

    Most of us, if we were to use the phrase “hemmoraging votes” would be speaking of committed voters changing sides. That isn’t what’s going on.

    I don’t know what the pundits and pollsters think, but my guess is that uncommitted voters will break for McCain about 60/40.

    This just comes from my own observation of Obama supporters and McCain supporters. Most folks on the left-hand side of the political spectrum are pretty excited about Senator Obama, while those on the right are somewhat less so about Senator McCain.

    But I suspect that if those “undecided” end up going to the polls at all, they will probably end up voting along ideological lines.

    The pundits and pollsters on both sides are saying that they expect this race to tighten up during this last week.

    The latest Reuters/Zogby poll has Senator Obama with 49 percent, Senator McCain with 44 percent and 7 percent undecided. Assuming that the undecided break 70/30 for McCain (which I expect is overly pessimistic from my side and overly optimistic from yours) that still leaves the election at 51 percent to Obama, 49 percent to McCain.

    And while I’d like to see a bigger margin, I’ll take a 51%/49% win with a big smile on my face.

    Oh, and the Washington percentage is likely to be much wider. That’s currently standing at 55% to 39%. Even giving a 70/30 split of undecideds, we still win by more than 10%.

    Didn’t someone say that Senator Obama would have to win by more than 8% to help Governor Gregoire win? I disagree with the basic premise, but even if it’s true, we still win.

  11. 14


    Sorry, Mr. Cynical. I just found the post where you said it would take an 11 point win.

    Current WA polls: Obama 55%, McCain 39%, undecided 6%.

    Splitting that 6% 75/25 in your favor gives me 4.5% to McCain and 1.5 to Obama.

    This gives us 56.5% to Obama and 43.5% to McCain, and by your estimation, a win for Governor Gregoire. As long as we don’t get complacent, we win.

    Oh, and did I tell you that I’ve signed up to provide transportation to the polls?

  12. 15

    rhp6033 spews:

    I’d have to agree that anybody who is undecided at this point in the game is probably a “reluctant Republican”, who has hesitate to commit because he/she normally votes Republican but doesn’t like McCain for one reason or another. For those uncommitteds, they have three choices, not two: (a) swallow their concerns and vote for McCain; (b) make a dramitic shift in party allegiance and vote for Obama, or (c) decide to sit this one out.

    The more it looks like Obama will win anyway, the less inclined those undecideds will feel compelled to make a choice. Many will default to option (c), which works for Obama because he is already in the lead.

  13. 17

    doug spews:

    Thank you to the generosity of the East Indian Community and their commitment to democracy, here are the numbers to call for those requiring help to get to the polls. As Dr. Virk mentioned, be sure to indicate if the person(s) needing service require handicapped vehicles.

    Farwest Taxi (206) 622-1717
    Orange Cab (206) 622-8181

    Gurminder Kahlon (206) 334-7498

    Gurcharan Dhaliwal (206) 293-3207

    Kulwant Grewal (206) 941-1647

    Manjit Singh (206) 551-6200

    Nirmal Pannu (253) 709-4193

    Purewal (206) 271-0420

    The taxicab owners and drivers have made a commitment of two-three donated shifts; this is very inspiring

    this was announced at the King county Democratic meeting yesterday. Each party will have these so you could call either party on Tuesday to get a taxi ride.