Under 50, tied with the challenger. Not a place a Republican incumbent wants to be the day before the big blue wave hits.
Among those poll respondents who have already voted: Burner leads by 8 among those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. Reichert leads by 5 among those who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to cast a ballot before polls close, but who have not yet done so. 38% of respondents have already voted; 62% have yet to.
What does that mean? Well, you don’t even have to do the math to see that Reichert would need to win over 5% of the uncast ballots to win the election.
It is interesting to note that in the previous poll Burner led by 8% with the 25% of respondents who said they had already voted, and now with 38% of ballots cast she still leads by 8%. Not having anything but intuition to back this up, it always struck me that a survey of how people actually voted should be more accurate than a survey of voter intent.
If I were Reichert, I’d be awfully nervous.